traffic and capacity performance summer 2008 outlook pc/29 – 9 may 2008 item 3
TRANSCRIPT
Traffic and Capacity Performance
Summer 2008 Outlook
Traffic and Capacity Performance
Summer 2008 Outlook
PC/29 – 9 May 2008Item 3
PC/29 – 9 May 2008Item 3
Traffic forecast 20084% Traffic Growth
•Significant trend to “shortest/cheapest route” choice – where possible•Trends confirmed by the airspace users for their strategic planning•Discussed with ANSPs during the preparations for Summer 2008
2008-2010 Delay Forecast
•Based on revision of capacity plans
•PC delay target not met for the third consecutive year
En-Route ATFM Delay Evolution - Summer Season Baseline growth scenario - All causes included
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Average delay (min/ flight)
En-Route ATFM Delay 5,5 3,6 3,1 1,8 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,6 PC Target 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,4 2,1 1,7 1,4 1 1 1 1 1 1 En-route ATFM delay forecast 1,7 2 2 1,5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PC target
Actual en-route delay
En-route delay forecast
2008 Summer Season (May-October)Delay Forecast – All reasons included
2009 Delay Forecast Baseline Traffic Growth
2010 Delay Forecast Baseline Traffic Growth
• Preparation of capacity plans with 19 ANSPs - bi-lateral meetings
• Preparation of airspace changes for Summer 2008 ( 135 packages of airspace design proposals prepared for Summer 2008)
• Airspace and Capacity Simulations for a large number of ACCs
• Enhanced ASM/ATFCM scenarios
• CFMU co-ordination of capacity and flow management actions
• Preparation of the European Football Championships
Summer 2008 Main actions undertaken in coordination with ANSPs
• Weather impact ( 25 % of delays on a year)
• Staffing concerns at many ACCs•Impact on availability of optimum configurations
• Co-ordinated implementation of major ATM system changes
• Commitment on improved airspace design solutions
• Stronger involvement in network ATFCM actions
• Reliability and full implementation of local plans
Main Issues in the Short/Medium Term
• Optimum airspace and capacity planning
• Further ASM/ATFCM integration
•Support and facilitation by CFMU
• Improved management of weather aspects
• Priority to DMEAN implementation
Enhanced Network Operations managementFor the next years
Enhanced
Network
Operations Management
• Advanced planning• 3-5 years ahead to tactical
• Full participation • CFMU co-ordination
A seamless process
The PC is invited to:
a. express concern that, as currently forecast, the Provisional Council en-route delay target would not be met during the period 2008-2011;
b. ensure the full implementation of all local/network capacity and airspace plans prior to the Summer 2008 and to request ANSPs to work with the Agency on a critical revision of medium term capacity plans;
c. urge all stakeholders to work with the Agency to increase the deployment of network initiatives and the overall network operational coordination;
d. urge States to take all the necessary measures to address urgently the issue of ATCO staffing levels throughout the European network
Recommendations