Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

Annual Energy Outlook 2008

Energy Information AdministrationDecember 12, 2007

www.eia.doe.gov

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1995 2006 2015 2030

AEO2007 High

AEO2007 Low

AEO2007 Reference

AEO2008 High

AEO2008 Low

AEO2008 Reference

Reference

High Price

Low Price

ProjectionHistory

World oil prices are higher in all AEO2008 cases

2006 dollars per barrel

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008

2010 2020

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Coal

2030

Renewables

100.0

123.8131.2

113.6118.2

103.6106.5

U.S. primary energy consumption is lower in all years

quadrillion Btu

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

per capita

per dollar real GDP

History Projection

Energy use per capita is constant and per dollar of GDP falls at 1.6 percent per year

(index, 1970=1.0)

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 5

0

5

10

15

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Industrial

Transportation

Residential and Commercial

Electric Power

ProjectionHistory

Transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption

million barrels per day

Net liquids import dependence is lower in AEO2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net Imports

History Projection

AEO2008AEO2007

million barrels per day

60%

59%61%

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 7

Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Lower 48 Onshore

Lower 48 Offshore

ProjectionHistory

Alaska

AEO2007AEO2008

million barrels per day

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 8

0

1

2

3

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Carbon DioxideEnhanced Oil Recovery

Conventional + Other EOR

AEO2007

AEO2008

Lower-48 onshore carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery grows rapidly

million barrels per day

0

4

8

12

16

20

2006 2010 2020 2030

CornBased

Renewable Fuel Standard

Cellulose Based

Ethanol supply dominated by corn exceeds the RFS, includes strong growth in imports

Imports

billion gallons

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2006 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008 AEO2007 AEO2008

2010 2020

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

2030

21.823.4

26.1

24.126.3

23.224.0

Natural gas consumption is lower in all sectors in AEO2008 compared to AEO2007

Electric Power

Trillion cubic feet

Natural gas consumption and production is lower and the net import share narrows

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

History Projection

Consumption

Production

AEO2007AEO2008

Net Imports

trillion cubic feet

16%15%

21%

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 12

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

ProjectionHistory

Pipeline

LNG AEO2007AEO2008

Net pipeline and, particularly, LNG imports are lower in AEO2008

trillion cubic feet

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 13

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

AEO2008AEO2007

History Projection

Despite lower demand, natural gas wellhead prices are slightly higher in AEO2008

2006 dollars per thousand cubic feet

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2010 2020 2030

22.5 22.9

26.5

Coal-to-LiquidsOther

ElectricPower

32.8

U.S. coal consumption is predominantly used for electricity generation with growing use for CTL

quadrillion Btu

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 15

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 AEO2007

AEO2008

AEO2007

AEO2008

AEO2007

AEO2008

2010 2020

3,8214,0214,132

4,5714,756Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

2030

5,4785,149

U.S. electricity consumption is lower in AEO2008

billion kilowatthours

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 16

Coal dominates capacity additions, but nuclear/renewables play a growing role

0

10

20

30

40

50

2007-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030

Natural Gas

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

gigawatts

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 17

2

9

2019

49

1

1214

17

55

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum

2006

2030: AEO2007

2030: AEO2008

- percent of total

Natural gas generation is offset by growth in coal, nuclear and renewable generation

57

15

16

9

2

billion kilowatthours

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 18

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Hydropower Geothermal MSW Biomass Solar Wind

2030: AEO2007

2030: AEO2008

Strongest growth in renewable electricity generation is in biomass and wind

billion kilowatthours

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

AEO2008AEO2007

History Projection

U.S. electricity price follow pattern similar to delivered fuels used at power plants

2006 cents per kilowatthour

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 20

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power

Electricity

Coal

Natural Gas

Petroleum

AEO20082030

AEO20072030

20065,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AEO2007

AEO2008

Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Total CO2 emissions in 2030 are down in AEO2008 with decline in energy consumption

million metric tons

Delivered, including losses

AEO2008 Press Conference Presentation: December 12, 2007 21

Annual Energy Outlook 2008 reference case indicates that through 2030....

• U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent

• The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent

• U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, does not increase over the next 25 years

• U.S. natural gas use declines over the last decade of the projection

• Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports

• Carbon dioxide emissions from energy grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent