transcom tsukuba, june 16, 2004 l. n. yurganov frontier research system for global change, yokohama,...
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TransCom Tsukuba, June 16, 2004
L. N. Yurganov
Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan, in collaboration with:
T. Blumenstock(1), P. Dechatellet (2), D. P. Edwards (3), E. I. Grechko (4), E. Fokeeva (4), A. Dzhola (4), F. Hase (1), I. Kramer (1), E. Mahieu (2), J. Mellqvist (5) , P. C. Novelli (6), J. Notholt (7), H.-E. Scheel (8), A. Strandberg (5), R. Sussmann (8),
H. Tanimoto (9), V. Velazco (7), J.R. Drummond (10), J.C. Gille (3)
(1) IMK-ISF, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany (2) University of Liège, Liège, Belgium(3) ACD, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA(4) Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Moscow, Russia(5) Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
(6) CMDL, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA(7) University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany (8) IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany (9) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan(10) University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Carbon monoxide forest fires emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in 1996-2003 retrieved from total column ground-based and satellite
measurements using a box model.
The report is based on three publications that can be found at: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d4/papers.htm
L. N. Yurganov, T. Blumenstock, E. I. Grechko, F. Hase, E. J. Hyer, E. S. Kasischke, M. Koike, Y. Kondo, I. Kramer, F.-Y. Leung, E. Mahieu, J. Mellqvist, J. Notholt, P. C. Novelli, C. P. Rinsland, H.E. Scheel, A. Schulz, A. Strandberg, R. Sussmann, H. Tanimoto, V. Velazco, R. Zander, and Y. Zhao, A Quantitative Assessment of the 1998 Carbon Monoxide Emission Anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere Based on Total Column and Surface Concentration Measurements, accepted by J. Geophys. Res
D.P. Edwards, L.K. Emmons, D.A. Hauglustaine, A. Chu, J.C. Gille, Y. J. Kaufman, G. Petron, L.N. Yurganov, L. Giglio, M.N. Deeter, V. Yudin, D.C. Ziskin, J. Warner, J.-F. Lamarque, G. L. Francis, S. P. Ho, D. Mao, J. Chen, E.I. Grechko, and J.R. Drummond, Observations of Carbon Monoxide and Aerosols From the Terra Satellite: Northern Hemisphere Variability, accepted by J. Geophys. Res
L. N. Yurganov, P. Duchatelet, A.V. Dzhola, D. P. Edwards, F. Hase, I. Kramer, E. Mahieu, J. Mellqvist, J. Notholt, P. C. Novelli, A. Rockmann, H. E. Scheel, M. Schneider, A. Schulz, A. Strandberg, R. Sussmann, H. Tanimoto, V. Velazco, J.R. Drummond, J.C. Gille, Increased Northern Hemispheric carbon monoxide burden in the troposphere in 2002 and 2003 detected from the ground and from space, submitted to Atmosp. Chem. Phys. Discuss.
We may conclude that a detection of forest fire signal for CO is 300 times easier, that for CH4 and 400 times easier than for CO2.
Why box model?
It is simple, “transparent”, easily verifiable, and matches the experimental mode
Why CO, not CO2?
Extratropical forest fires emit normally [Andreae & Merlet, 2001]: CO: 68 TgCH4: 3 TgCO2:1004 Tg
Global atmosphere contains:
CO: 370 TgCH4: 4800 Tg CO2: 2.2 millions (!) Tg
Therefore, wild forest fires perturb the global atmosphere by: CO: 18%CH4: 0.06%CO2: 0.045%
But!
Measurements
mol/cm 2
BL
FT
BL
FTIR
Sampling
10 km
1.5 km
MOPITT
Location and methods
(operational since 1996 or earlier)
NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Other in situ programs
Data from two Japanese stations are supplied by Dr. H. Tanimoto (NIES) and Japanese Meteorological Agency, stations at Shetland Isl. and near Vancouver are managed by CSIRO, measurements at Zugspitze (Germany) are conducted by Dr. Scheel (FZK, IMK-IFU), in situ data from Jungfraujoch are supplied by EMPA. Most of the data are based on weekly sampling.
Spectroscopic stations (Hokkaido until 2001, Tenerife after 1999)
FTIR spectrometers (7 sites) are parts of the NDSC (Network for Detection of
Stratospheric Change). Grating spectrometer is in use at Zvenigorod, Russia,
LOCATIONS
MOPITT – full coverage
● Our first task is to determine as accurately as possible the CO burden (total mass) in the HNH. We should use all
available information about CO in the boundary layer, in the free troposphere and in the total column.
● We will consider anomalies of CO burden in spite of absolute burdens.
Total column CO in the Northern Hemisphere measured from the ground and from space
(mol/cm2, monthly averages, blue solid lines are averages over the reference period)
1.0E+18
2.0E+18
3.0E+18
4.0E+18
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Zvenigorod
5.0E+17
1.0E+18
1.5E+18
2.0E+18
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Jungfraujoch5.0E+17
1.0E+18
1.5E+18
2.0E+18
2.5E+18
3.0E+18
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Kiruna
5.0E+17
1.0E+18
1.5E+18
2.0E+18
2.5E+18
3.0E+18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
MOPITT, HNH
HNH = 30º N – 90º N
Designates the reference period (March 2000 – February 2001).SwedenSwiss Alps
Central Russia High Northern Hemisphere
Zonal average CO total column measured by MOPITT [Edwards et al., 2004]
HNH
LNH
LSH
HSH
Relative anomalies of CO abundance, both total columns and BL mixing ratios
Symbols are for spectroscopic total column measurements, orange line is for CMDL data in the BL, MOPITT total column measurements were averaged for 30º N – 90º N.
1.E+18
2.E+18
3.E+18
4.E+18
5.E+18
6.E+18
7.E+18
8.E+18
1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct
CO
co
lum
n a
mo
un
t, m
ol/c
m2
Zvenigorod, 2002
2.1 (Sept., 2002, Zvenigorod)
Peatland fires occurred near Moscow in July – September, 2002. Extreme values were omitted for hemispheric estimates of emissions.
Hokkaido data until December 2001 according to [Yurganov et al., 2004] Reference period
Peat fires
1.E+18
2.E+18
3.E+18
4.E+18
5.E+18
6.E+18
7.E+18
8.E+18
2-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep
CO
co
lum
n a
mo
un
t, m
ol/c
m2
Zvenigorod, 2002
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
CO, ppb
Alti
tud
e,
km
17%
1.15 ppm in BL
1.5 km
60 km60 km
Simultaneous ground- and space-based measurements in Russia in period of peat fires
ZvenigorodZvenigorod
MoscowMoscow
Peat firesPeat fires
MOPITT
Ground-based spectrometer
Vertical sensitivities and a priori profiles
CO in situ anomalies for low altitude stations in HNH (Novelli et al., 2003, JGR; Yurganov et al., 2004, JGR, accepted)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
CO
mix
ing
ratio
ano
mal
y, p
pb
cold bay barrVancouv WisconBermuda AlertAzores Iceland"M" Ny AlesundKazakhstan RishiriRyori ShemyaShetland Mace Headmean
Reference period
The anomaly of 1998 was clearly visible at most of BL locations, however, CO was perturbed at Japanese stations Rishiri and Ryori
CO anomalies expressed as mean mixing ratio in selected boxes: boundary layer (below 1.5 km), free troposphere (1.5 – 10 km), and total column (0 – 10 km), 30º N – 90º N.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Ano
mal
y of
mix
ing
ratio
, ppb
BL (in-situ)
TC (FTIR)
FT (FTIR+in-situ)
TC (MOPITT)
Indonesia
Mexico
Canada & Siberia
?
W. Russia & Siberia Siberia?
Alternatives to the biomass burning
TOTAL GLOBAL EMISSIONS = 2780 Tg
Various fuels = 700
Methane oxidation =
800
Biomass burning = 700
Non-methane HC oxidation =
400
Box model
Low Northern Hemisphere (LNH)
(volumes of two boxes are equal)
High Northern Hemisphere (HNH)
MLNH MHNH
0 km
10 kmEquator
90º N
30º N
L transp
CO + OH → CO2 + H
P'HNH = dM'HNH/dt + M'HNH / TAU chem + (M'HNH – M'LNH)/ TAU trans
TAU chem. = 1/ k [OH]k = 1.5 E-13 x (1+0.6 atm)cm3 mol-1 s-1 [Demore et al., 1997]; [OH] ~ [Spivakovsky et al. 2000]
TAU trans was calculated using the GEOS-CHEM model
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120.00E+000
5.00E+010
1.00E+011
1.50E+011
MHNH
- MLNH
CO burdens, kg
CO flux, kg/s
Months
CO
bu
rden
, kilo
gra
ms
CO, HNH, kg CO, LNH, kg HNH - LNH
0
5000
10000
15000
CO
flu
x, k
ilog
ram
s/se
con
d
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TAUtrans
= MYNY
- MLNH
/flux
TA
Utr
ans,
mo
nth
s
Months
TAUtrans was calculated by Fok-Yan-Leung (Harvard University) using
GEOS-CHEM model for 1998 meteorology (Yurganov et al., 2004)
TAUchem was calculated as 1/k [OH] with [OH] field according to
Spivakovsky et al., 2000
TAUchem
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
TA
U, m
onth
s
These life-times were assumed valid for all years. A corresponding uncertainty was estimated less than ± 20% (Yurganov et al., 2004)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ano
mal
y of
HN
H b
urde
n, T
g
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 BL+FT TC, FTIR MOPITT
Em
issi
on a
nom
aly,
Tg/
mon
th
Anomalies of total tropospheric CO burden in the HNH (top panel) were calculated from CMDL BL data added by FT data (both in situ and Alpine FTIRs), directly
from low altitude FTIRs, and from MOPITT. Box model was applied and emission anomalies are displayed on bottom panel. (Yurganov et al.,ACPD, 2004, submitted)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Em
issi
on
an
om
aly,
Tg
van der Werf et al., 2004
Yurganov et al. 2004
A comparison with GEOS-CHEM inversion by van der Werf et al., Science, 2004.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
HN
H e
mis
sio
n r
ate
, Tg
/mo
nth
1996
1998
2002
2003
2000(MOZART)
Emission anomaly, can be converted in absolute emission if we assume some reference “normal” emissions, e.g., the inventory for MOZART-2 model (M.Schultz,
personal communication) with 50.7 Tg CO emitted in 2000.
A comparison of emissions during four years with strong fires.
A comparison with 1998 inventories
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
HN
H e
mis
sio
n a
no
mal
y, T
g/y
ear P'(FTIR)
P(BL1.5+FT)
Average
P'(MOP)
CO2 emission HNH anomaly derived from CO emission anomaly
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003HN
H e
mis
sio
n a
no
mal
y, P
g/y
ear
CO emission HNH anomaly
ESTIMATES OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND METHANE BURDEN PERTURBATIONS.
Forest fires emit directly 14.7 times more CO2, 22.7 times less CH4, and 400 times less N2O than CO [Andreae and Merlet, 2001].
In 2002 – 2003 CO excess emission from NH boreal fires was (98 + 142) = 240 Tg. It was almost immediately chemically converted into 240 x 44/28 = 377 Tg CO2.
Direct emission of CO2 was 3530 Tg. If we assume that 20% of CO2 was removed during two years, then
global CO2 burden increased by 0.14%.
Methane global burden was increased by 0.20%.
Nitrous oxide global burden was increased by 0.03%.
CONCLUSIONS
● A consideration of HNH burden anomalies allows one to estimate imbalance between sources and sinks. This imbalance is treated as a result of anomalies of CO source, namely, anomalies of boreal fire emissions.
● CO measurements from the ground and from space are a good tool for monitoring fire activity. Moreover, perturbations of other gases may be assessed using available information about their relative contributions into fire emissions.