Fusuo Zhang

Centre for Resources, Environment and Food Security China Agricultural University

Sept. 30th 2016, Kunming

Transformation of Chinese Agriculture

High production cost in China

• Average price of Jan- Sept, 2015• The civil market price (wholesaler)VS

import price (cif+duty)

• Wheat: +37%• Rice: +42%• Maize:+51%

Cited from Xiwen Chen

China’s eutrophied lake area reached 8700 km2 (2007) over the last 4 decades.

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s0

15

30

45

60

75

90

0.2 0.54

20

79

Ann

ual N

umbe

r of

Red

Tid

es

(China State Oceanic Administration, 2009）

1970s 1980s 2000s 20070

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

135600

5000

8700

Are

a (k

m2)

(Jin, 2009)

Eutrophication

(Science 2009, 1014-1015)

High environmental cost

Air pollution in Beijing

NATURE (Liu et al.,2013)N

ferti

lizer

use

(Tg

N y

r1 )

0

10

20

30

40

50

Live

stoc

k un

it (1

06 h

eads

)

0

100

200

300

400N Fertilizer Livestock unit

NH 3 o

r NO x e

mis

sion

(Tg

N y

r-1 )

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

NH 3-N

/NO x-N

0

1

2

3

4

5NH3NOx-NNH3-N/NOx-N

Year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

No.

of v

ehic

les

(10

6 )

0

20

40

60

80

100

Coa

l con

sum

ptio

n (1

09 to

ns)

0

1

2

3

4Motor vehiclesCoal consumption

f

y=2.0010-44 e0.0516x

(n=13, P < 0.001)

y=1.0010-113 e0.1316x

(n=17, P < 0.001)

d

e

y=0.315x-619.21(n=31, P < 0.001)

y=7.0010-49 e0.0561x

(n=31, P < 0.001)

y= -0.0709x+144.6(n=31, P < 0.001)

y=0.842x-1, 657.4(n=31, P < 0.001)

y=8.999x-17, 723(n=31, P < 0.001)

1980s: 13.2 kg N/ha 2000s: 21.1 kg N/ha 60% of increase

The challenges ahead: How to produce more, better

and safer food with less land, water and

labor……and less chemicals… less pollution

Double high Agriculture (High productivity and high efficiency)

Problems and challenges

Strategies and national actions

Prospects

Outline

Integrated Nutrient Management to increase crop yield and NUE by

10-20% (INM, 2003-2008)1) Increase crop yield significantly

through Integrated Crop Management2) Improve nutrient use efficiency

greatly through Integrated Nutrient Management

mechanical-transplantingManual-transplanting

9000-11000 seedlings/ha6000-8000 seedlings/ha

Limiting factor: Manual-transplanting resulted in low density Key technology solution: Turn manual-transplanting into mechanical-transplanting，match nutrient supply with demand

Training farmers alone could increase yield by 8%Special fertilizer alone could increase yield by 23%Special fertilizer+Mechanical transplanting by 29%

Yiel

d(t

/ha)

N ra

te(k

g/ha

)

GHG

rele

ase

(kg

CO2-

eq/h

a)

NE North

NW SW

Yiel

d

(t/h

a)N

rate

(kg/

ha)

GHG

rele

ase

(kg

CO2-

eq/h

a)

NE Yangzi river

SC SW

Yiel

d (t

/ha)

N ra

te (k

g/ha

)

GHG

rele

ase

(kg

CO2-

eq/h

a)

NE NC Yangziriver

NW SW

Maize

Rice

Wheat

Potential of yield increase, N saving and reduction of GHG by regions

yield increase 15% ， N saving 20%， GHG reduction 30%

Integrated Soil-crop System Management (ISSM) to increase both yield and NUE by 30-50%

1) Increase crop yield significantly

2) Integrated nutrient management (INM)

3) Improve Soil Quality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

产量 养分效率

玉米

产量

（t h

a-1)

养分

效率

(kg k

g-1)

FPISSM

Mai

ze y

ield

(t/ha

)

Transformative Change for 2030 Increase yield and NUE by 30-50% simultaneously

PNAS | April 19, 2011 | vol. 108 | no. 16 | 6399–6404

Increase maize yield by 97%, double the NUE in 66 field experiments.

2013

2011

Yield Efficiency Environ

Yield PFP

N e

ffici

ency

(PFP

,kg/

kg)

>30%

>50%

>40%

80% ISSM

Projected demand

Beautiful picture: Increase yield and NUE by30-50%

(Chen et al.,Nature, 2014)

2014 Producing more grain with less environmental costs in intensive agriculture

Images were taken at March 27, 2004

A new approach for small household farmers

In China, a total of 122 Mha of cropland is managed on 200 million farms. Here, the average area per farm is only 0.6 ha and individually managed fields are generally 0.1 to 0.3 ha

230 million small households in China

Farm-based Double High Technology (DHT) Innovation and Transfer by Science &

Technology Backyard (STB)

Develop and disseminate Double-High Technology (DHT) to realize Double-High Sustainable Agriculture (DHA, High Productivity and High Efficiency) through STB in China

Living in the villagesWorking with farmers in zero-distance, zero-time lag, zero-charge and zero-personnel selection

Demonstration Doing experiment

Field school Training

Towards a regional sustainable intensification（Quzhou county:400,000Farmers, 40,000ha arable land)

Compare to 2008, the grain production + 37%, fertilizer input +12%, irrigation area +2%, farmers income +79%, in 2014

2016

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

Scenario analysis of Zero-increase in fertilizer application from 2020 in China

National target of zero-increse

40% N use efficiency

80% manure use rate， N,P,K reduces 10、 3、 2million tons

75% of crop straw return

6178

5766

53835658

5431

6178

5094

44895168

3789 Reduce application rate by 30% in vegetable and fruit trees

10000tons

(WF Zhang, PC)

Thanksfor your attention !

AcknowledgmentsNSFC, MoA , MoE, MOST