Transitioning in AfricaEmily A. Simons

Analysis

Research Question By looking at various social, economic, and political indicators, analyze which currently failed

state is the most likely to transition. Thesis

A failed state can become a transitioning state if it increases its political legitimacy, economic domain, and social capacity by focusing on factors such as GDP, elections, regime type, and education.

Sources

Secondary Primary

States

Eritrea

Mauritania

Guinea Bissau

Brunei

EritreaMauritania

Guinea Bissau

Elements of Transition

Social Treatment of women in society Education

Economical Exports GDP

Political Elections Regime Type

Political Factors

Political FactorsEritrea Mauritania Guinea Bissau Brunei

Regime Type Authoritarian Presidential Regime

Military Junta Republic Constitutional Sultanate

Political Allies EthiopiaSomalia

UN, OAU, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, France, Japan, Iraq, Italy, Germany, Romania, the United States, and China.

United States Russia, United States, China

Elections No Elections High voter turnout (74%)

Average voter turnout (63%)Too many elections

No Data

Most Likely to Transition

Mauritania

Connection to the Western World

Suffrage

Desire for Democracy

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Eritrea - 168.9 223.4 192.5 281.4 451.4 754.9

Mauritania 503.8 580.5 539 459.1 938 1,207.8 1,275

Guinea Bissau 231 448.9 163.8 303 369 518.6 567.8

Brunei 13,701.9

14,220.6 12,784.8

17,016.9

31,157 31,453 41,344

Econmic Factors GDP Per Capita

Exports

Eritrea

Mauritania

Guinea Bissau

Brunei

Exports of the United States

Most Likely to Transition

Mauritania

Higher GDP

Government Regulations

Use of Resources

Social Factors

Global Gender Gap Report

Eritrea N/A Mauritania 129 out of 142 Guinea Bissau 132 out of 142 Brunei 98 out of 142

Literacy Rates

Literacy Rate Overall Ranking (out of 216)

Eritrea 68.9% 178

Mauritania 58.6% 192

Guinea Bissau 55.3% 199

Brunie 95.4% 96

Most Likely to Transition

Mauritania

Education

Literacy Rates

Gender Equality in the Workplace

Who will transition?

Eritrea• “North Korea of

Africa”• Closed off from

the rest of the world

Guinea Bissau• Good voter

turnout and treatment of women in society

• Agricultural based too many elections

Mauritania• Relations with

other states• High citizen

participation

Works Cited

Barrington, Lowell W. Comparative Politics: Structures and Choices. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning, 2009. Print.

Bates, Robert H. When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-century Africa. New York: Cambridge UP, 2008. Print.

Connell, Dan. "Strategies For Change: Women & Politics In Eritrea & South Africa." Review Of African Political Economy 25.76 (1998): 189. Business Source Complete. Web. 15 Oct. 2015. http://web.b.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=3&sid=198f3158-2a54-43b3-bc10-5e66eda67660%40sessionmgr112&hid=116&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#AN=911132&db=bth

"Economies." Global Gender Gap Report 2014. World Economic Forum, n.d. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. <http://reports.weforum.org/global-gender-gap-report-2014/economies/#economy=GNA>.

Ghani, Ashraf, and Clare Lockhart. Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World. Oxford: Oxford UP, 2008. Print.

"Human Rights." Brunei Country Review (2011): 36-38. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=58480582&site=ehost-live

Works Cited

"Human Rights." Guinea Bissau Country Review (2011): 52-54. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=58489601&site=ehost-live

Müller, Tanja R. "Education For Social Change: Girls’ Secondary Schooling In Eritrea." Development & Change 37.2 (2006): 353-373. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=20928617&site=ehost-live

"Social Overview." Guinea Bissau Country Review (2005): 61. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=15142480&site=ehost-live

"Social Overview." Mauritania Country Review (2005): 65. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=15237895&site=ehost-live

"Status Of Women." Mauritania Country Review (2013): 146-148. Business Source Complete. Web. 14 Oct. 2015. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=87849462&site=ehost-live