transport, energy efficiency and behaviour workshop · energy efficiency holds the key to a peak in...
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© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015
Transport, Energy Efficiency and Behaviour Workshop
May 10-11
International Energy Agency
Keisuke Sadamori Director of Energy Markets and Security
© OECD/IEA 2016
A 2°c pathway is still some distance away
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt
Baseline
450 Scenario
17.9 Gt
Energy efficiency holds the key to a peak in emissions by around 2020
Energy efficiency
Fuel & technology switching in end-uses
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Other
Source: World Energy Outlook 2015, IEA 2015
© OECD/IEA 2016
Why Focus on the Transport Sector?
2013
Source: IEA World Energy Balances. 2015
Industry 35%
Transport 25%
Residential 25%
Services 8%
Other 7%
Industry 22%
Transport 52%
Residential 12%
Services 7%
Other 7%
Total
1973
Oil products
Industry 32%
Transport 30%
Residential 25%
Services 9%
Other 4%
Industry 10%
Transport 76%
Residential 7%
Services 3%
Other 4%
© OECD/IEA 2016
Transport still overwhelmingly relies on oil
Worldmarinebunkers
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Jet fuels
Biofuels
Fuel oil
World aviationbunkers
Russia
Germany
ItalyFrance
United Kingdom
EU Nordic
Canada
United States
Mexico
Brazil
Other Latin America
Other Africa
South Africa
Middle East
India
ASEAN
Japan
Korea
China (People’s Rep. of)
Australia andNew Zealand
30 EJ
5 EJ3.5 EJ
Transport final energy use per capita (gigajoules per year)
0 4 10 16 22 29 38 47 65 80
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, IEA 2016; Taken from the IEA energy balances, 2016.
Transport final energy use by fuel (EJ) and per capita transport energy use in 2015
© OECD/IEA 2016
Passenger transport activity – mode matters
France
United Kingdom
EU Nordic
Canada
United States
Mexico
Brazil
Other Latin America
Other Africa
South Africa
Middle East
India
ASEAN
Australia andNew Zealand
Japan
Korea
China
Russia
Germany
Italy
2-wheelers
3-wheelers
Small and medium cars
Large cars
Minibuses
Buses
Rail
1 trllionpkm
3 trllionpkm
5.5 trllionpkm
ETP_2016_Figure_01.10
Air
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, IEA 2016.
National Passenger transport activity (passenger kilometres [pkm]) in 2015, by mode
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Toward decoupling activity from emissions
Needed actions: Avoid & shift, improve, and low-carbon fuels
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, IEA 2016.
Well-to-wheel transport emissions in the 2DS, 4DS, and 6DS, OECD and Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015
Transport, Energy Efficiency and Behaviour Workshop
May 10-11
International Energy Agency
Brian Motherway Head of Energy Efficiency Division
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Improving Transport Efficiency
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Ensuring a wide variety of mobility options
Transport policies implemented in cities
Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, IEA 2016.
AVOID / SHIFT
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Fuel economy standards driving efficiency
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20
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28
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
km/lg
e
European Union
Japan
India
China
Korea
United States
Mexico
Canada
IMPROVE
Enacted Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards
Source: ICCT (2014).
© OECD/IEA 2016
Electric vehicles: The beginning of a new era?
Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-2015
Source: Global EV Outlook 2016 – Beyond one million electric cars, IEA 2016.
IMPROVE
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Technology developments are crucial
… but ultimately, it depends on consumer preferences, acceptance, and market uptake.
Evolution of battery energy density and cost
Source: Global EV Outlook 2016 – Beyond one million electric cars, IEA 2016.
IMPROVE
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Agenda
Day 1
Demand Management
Eco-Driving, Feedback Systems & Vehicle Components
Vehicle Purchasing Decisions
Day 2
Fuel Switching: Promoting Hydrogen & Electric Vehicles
Urban Transport and Alternatives to Cars
Modelling Transport Behaviour
© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2015
Transport, Energy Efficiency & Behaviour Workshop
May 10-11
International Energy Agency