transportation systems for oil & gas development: case
TRANSCRIPT
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Transportation Systems for
Oil & Gas Development: Case Study of the Bakken Shale
Denver Tolliver
Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University
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Preview
Bakken shale formation Production technologies Input requirements/outputs Transportation demands Mode use and traffic distribution Forecasting and modeling concepts Highway impacts and planning Conclusions/lessons learned
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Shale Oil Formations in North Dakota
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10,0
00-1
2,00
0 fe
et b
enea
th su
rfac
e
• Tight rock formation • Hydraulic fracturing • Horizontal drilling
North Dakota Oil and Gas Division
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Horizontal and Vertical Wells
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Ho
rizo
nta
l We
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rtic
al W
ell
Lateral: 6,000 to 11,000 feet
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Well Spacing
More vertical wells are needed to access similar sized reservoir area Ratio of vertical/horizontal may be 4:1 E.g., a 640‐acre section could be developed
with 16 vertical wells (on individual pads) or 4 horizontal wells drilled from a single pad North Dakota: typical space unit=1,280 acres 8‐12 wells per unit based on drilling practices Batch drilling may increase density
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Production Trends and Potential
ND produces ≈ 1 million barrels of oil per day (BOPD) Production may increase to 1.6 million BOPD Dept. of Mineral Resources projects 10‐14 billion
barrels of technically recoverable reserves Industry projections are much higher
o (e.g., Continental Resources) 20+ billion barrels In‐place oil reserves: 400+ billion barrels
o Continental Resources: 900 billion barrels 60,000 new wells expected to be drilled during
next 20‐30 years See following production charts
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Annual Oil Production: North Dakota
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50
100
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mill
ion
barr
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North Dakota is second leading state in oil production
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Number of Oil Wells: North Dakota
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10
20
30
40
50
60
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90
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Hun
dred
s of W
ells
Currently: 10,000+ producing wells
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Daily Output per Well: North Dakota
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Barr
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Oil Production Details Bakken output per well: 140 BOPD Average Initial Production as high as 1,700
BOPD with sharp decline afterward Statewide average IP rate = 1,200 BOPD Projected Bakken/Three Forks development 1,100 to 2,700 wells per year
o Expected value (2,000 new wells per year) Projected new wells: 40,000 – 70,000 next
30 years Production may exceed 1.5 million BOPD in
near future 10
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Bakken Well Production Curve
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1,000
1,200
1,400
0 5 10 15 20
BOPD
Age of Well
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Input Requirements/Outputs
All Bakken wells are hydraulically fractured Requirements:
o 2‐4 million gallons of fresh water o 3‐5 million pounds of sand and/or ceramics o Chemicals, fuel, drilling mud, cement, etc.
Fracking cost > $2 million per well Outputs: oil, saltwater, natural gas 1 bbl of saltwater per 2 to 3 bbl of oil
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Material, Product, and Equipment Movements
Inputs railed to transloading sites Specialized equipment to and from well site Roughly 2,300 drilling‐related truck trips per
well (next slide) Outbound crude oil
o By truck to pipeline or rail transfer location o By small diameter pipeline to trunkline connection
Natural gas: by gathering pipeline to trunk connection Outbound byproducts
o E.g., salt water mix for disposal by truck or pipeline 13
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Drilling Related Truck Movements per Bakken Well
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Input or Product Loaded Trucks Water (Fresh) 450 Water (Waste) 225 Frac Tanks 115 Sand 100 Scoria/Gravel 80 Rig Equipment 65 Drilling Mud 50 Cement 20 Pipe 15 Other 30
1,150 Loaded Trucks
2,300 Loaded &
Empty Trucks
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Current Mode Share Crude Oil: Gathering Movement
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73%
27%
TruckPipeline
Movements from Wells to Transfer Locations
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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Oil Pipeline Network in North Dakota
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Category Miles Oil gathering pipeline 10,800 Crude oil (transmission) pipeline 3,100 Oil product pipeline 1,070 All oil pipelines 14,970
Estimates from North Dakota Pipeline Authority. No historical requirement for reporting of gathering pipelines. Thus, gathering pipeline miles estimated from multiple sources.
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ND Oil Gathering Network: Northern Bakken Region
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Truck Pipeline Both
North Dakota Pipeline Authority – Feb., 2013
Mature spine area (green dots) in center
Parshall gathering pipeline network
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ND Oil Gathering Network: Pre-Boom Legacy Pool
Mature producing region developed in 1970s Most wells have gathering pipeline access Compare to recent Bakken development, where
trucking dominates
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Truck Pipeline Both
North Dakota Pipeline Authority – Feb., 2013
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Gathering Mode Distribution Over Time
Initially, all crude oil is transported by truck to rail or pipeline transfer locations When wells are added to a spacing unit, small
diameter gathering pipeline may be built from trunk pipeline network Projected distribution: ≥ two‐thirds of crude oil
outbound by gathering pipeline in mature system Depends on many factors: added trunk line
capacity, rail improvements and capacity, highway improvements and restrictions
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Crude Oil Mode Shares Line Haul
Current: 70% rail; near‐term projection: 90% rail Reasons for rail dominance
o Limited pipeline capacity (sized to historical production: next slide)
o Challenges/length of time in siting and constructing new pipelines
o Greater ease of capacity expansion on railroads o Lower cost of railroad expansion o Rail access to a wider variety of markets →
premium prices
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ND Crude Oil Pipelines
21 North Dakota Pipeline Authority – Feb., 2013
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Rail Movement Characteristics
700‐725 bbl per tankcar Shipments: multicar units or trainloads
(e.g., 100+ cars) Current rail share ≈ 1,000 cars per day Equivalent to ten 100‐car trains/day 70%+ rail share →16‐20 trainloads/day of
crude oil at peak
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Rail Transportation Issues
Line capacity for other goods Service levels and priorities Testing, classification, placarding Tankcar standards Accident exposure (train‐miles) Risk assessment/routing Grade crossings
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Highway Transportation Issues
Forecasting challenge o Historical traffic trends are essentially useless o Great spatial and temporal variation in traffic (next
slide) Unprecedented traffic on rural roads typically
designed for farm‐to‐market traffic Insufficient base layers and soil support Inadequate data on existing road structure Rapid deterioration of roads (e.g., US‐2,ND‐68) Mostly narrow two‐lane rural roads: capacity and
safety issues 24
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Spatial/Temporal Traffic Variations
Initial drilling phase o Drill at least well per spacing unit to hold lease o Scramble to acquire and hold leases
Fill‐in period when spacing units are drilled out Countervailing demand forces
o IP rates of old wells are dropping o New wells are being added to the same areas o Challenges for travel demand forecasting
Other unknowns: gathering pipeline density
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Avg. Projected Truck ADT on County Roads for Three Heavily Impacted Oil Counties (with Control Case)
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Slope County (not impacted by oil production) illustrates traditional truck traffic levels
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Damage to ND Highway 68 Resulting from Oil-Related Traffic
27 NDDOT. Impact of Oil Development on State Highways, May, 2006.
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US 2 Near Ray, ND
Design Life: 20 years; 900,000 ESALS Pavement age = 9; currently > 1.1 million
ESALs; ESAL life=14 million
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ND 1806 in McKenzie Co., North Dakota
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ND Highway 1806: Sep. 2, 2010
ND Highway 1806 on April 28, 2011
Rapid deterioration in less than 1 year
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Road System Impacts Studies for North Dakota legislature
o Detailed forecasts of traffic to/from individual spacing units
o Truck traffic projected annually for 20 years o Models calibrated against observed traffic data for base
year o Estimated truck ADT converted to equivalent single axle
loads (ESALs) o Paved road condition forecasted year‐by‐year o Improvements identified: reconstruction, widening,
resurfacing o Unpaved road analysis based on increasing frequencies
of blading/graveling, increased gravel costs
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Load Type Thou. Lbs. ESALs Tractor‐Semitrailer 80.0 2.37 Generator House 160.2 9.49 Shaker Tank/Pit 142.7 6.40 Derrick 159.0 8.78 Mud Pump 165.9 6.18 Substructure, etc. 160.6 10.18 Mud Tank 138.8 9.04 Workover Rigs 105.0 6.06
Typical Loads and ESAL Factors for Specialized Vehicles
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Investments in Oilfield Access Roads
Large‐scale investment program in North Dakota o$2.5 billion state highway program: 2013‐2015
biennium o Roughly $930 million for county and township
roads o Current studies include bridge investment needs
Other critical issues o Enforcement resources o Safety (including heavy vehicles) oGrade crossings oHazmat/emergency response
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Conclusions
Oil‐related traffic patterns are dynamic Vary spatially and temporally A multimodal transportation system is needed Different modes may be utilized more/less
intensively in different stages of development Rural collector/local road system may be heavily
impacted Road infrastructure may be entirely inadequate
and require substantial upfront investment Caution must be exercised not to overbuild the
road system 33
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Conclusions (cont.)
Gathering pipeline network may be added over time Crude transmission capacity may also be
expanded New pipeline construction poses challenges Rail can be expanded more quickly at less cost,
mostly within existing footprint Pipeline transport cost are likely to be lower
than rail costs in the long run 34