Market research study on

“Travel pattern in near future”

of western railway

Report by

220 Heemanish Midde

MMS – 1 (2007 – 2008)

Xavier Institute of Management & Research, Mumbai

Mumbai University

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to thank especially our friends Vishal Bhatia and Balasaheb Mahajan for their support and

encouragement in and during the collection of data. They have been instrumental in completion of this project.

I am grateful to The Western Railway for their patience and generosity in sharing of data.

I would like to thank the Statistics department of St. Xavier’s College for their support and guidance in

completion of this interesting project. Their advice and encouragement is appreciated.

I am grateful to Prof. Macario for giving us this opportunity to work on the same.

- Heemanish Midde

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

i. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

1.2. CURRENT SITUATION

2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

2.2. PROBLEM STATEMENT

2.3. AIM

2.4. OBJECTIVE

2.5. PURPOSE

3. ASSUMPTIONS AND DECLARATIONS

4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4.2. Research Design

4.3. Data Collection & Analysis

4.4. Calculations

4.5. Preliminary Conclusion

5. DATA INTERPRETATION

6. CONCLUSION

6.2. Causes

7. RECOMMENDATION

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1

INTRODUCTION

The Mumbai Suburban Railway system, part of the public transportation system of Mumbai, is provided for by

the state-run Indian Railways' two zonal Western Railways and Central Railways. The system carries more than

6.1 million commuters on a daily basis and constitutes more than half of the total daily passenger capacity of

the Indian Railways itself. It has the highest passenger density of any urban railway system in the world.

1.2 CURRENT SITUATION

The Western Railway line between Churchgate terminus and Dahanu Road carries about 2.6 million passengers

per day, almost 43 percent of the total Mumbai suburban rail traffic. The annual passenger traffic density for

the Western Line exceeds 145 million passenger-km per km of route per year. In other words, more than 145

million passengers travel, on average, over each km of line per year. The busiest segment, 60 km between

Churchgate terminus and Virar, carries almost 900 million passengers per year. The annual traffic density,

about 255 million passenger-km per km of route, is believed to be the world record for passenger rail

transport.

Due to its extensive reach across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, and its intensive use by the local urban

population, overcrowding has grown to be a compelling problem (4,700 passengers are packed into a 9-car

rake during peak hours, as against the rated carrying capacity of 1,700). This has resulted in what is known as

Super-Dense Crush Load of 14 to 16 standing passengers per square meter of floor space. Trains on the

suburban line are on average more than 4 minutes apart, contributing to the problem of overcrowding.

People in this belt face a big commuting problem. Men even travel atop the trains and even precariously hang

out, risking their lives nearly everyday. Many women also travel on one foot or half heels inside the train and

half heels outside! Accidents are common along this belt. People living in these areas have been crying for

better train facilities since many years. Their dreams will hopefully be a reality soon! The quadrupling project

which began in 1990s was always halted or delayed due to number of reasons like - hutments in the way of the

proposed tracks and many other ones!

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With population in the Borivali to Virar region rising (reason being rising real estate rates in main Mumbai and

people moving for cheaper and bigger flats beyond), the commuting problem worsened.

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2

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

2.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT

A Person will board a Virar Local from Borivali Station during peak hours

2.2 AIM OF THE MARKET RESEARCH

Calculating the probability of getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours

2.3 OBJECTIVE

� To Identify Causes of overcrowding

� To Identify Alternatives modes of transport

2.4 PURPOSE OF THE MARKET RESEARCH

To verify the efficiency of Virar Locals

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3

ASSUMPTIONS & DECLARATIONS

� Our research is based on Data collected in year 2006

� Considered only Virar bound local trains from 6.49pm to 8.19pm from Borivali Station

� Neglected Human Error

� Sample follows Normal Distribution

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4

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

4.1 Research Design

� Primary Data to be collected through direct observations

� Counting the number of people (in a virtual area) before the train arrives at Borivali Station

� Counting the number of people (in that virtual area) after the train leaves Borivali Station

� The above is to be done for three coaches of the same train such that it covers most number of

coaches of the train

� Secondary Data to be collected from Western Railway Headquarters, Churchgate

� Total capacity (seating and standing)

� Train Traffic

� Approximate Passenger Traffic

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4.2 Data Collection & Analysis

Primary data

m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach

n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach

p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach

1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train

m n m n m n

6.49 15 45 19 57 22 46

7.03 18 60 9 47 37 56

7.11 32 52 27 46 43 55

7.27 29 43 26 42 33 50

7.38 20 54 27 57 34 54

7.49 13 61 32 63 32 53

7.58 20 54 26 59 49 59

8.04 16 63 34 66 26 47

8.19 10 54 38 72 26 60

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

N

u

m

b

e

r

6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19

Train Timings

Coach 1

9

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

N

u

m

b

e

r

6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19

Train Timings

Coach 2

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

m

n

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

N

u

m

b

e

r

6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19

Train Timings

Coach 3

Secondary Data

Train Capacity: 1,700

Train Traffic: 9 trains in 1 hr 30 mins

Passenger Traffic at Borivali Station: 650

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4.3 Calculations

1st Coach 6th Coach 10th Coach Train

m n p m n p m n p

6.49 15 45 0.333 19 57 0.333 22 46 0.478

7.03 18 60 0.3 9 47 0.191 37 56 0.661

7.11 32 52 0.615 27 46 0.587 43 55 0.782

7.27 29 43 0.674 26 42 0.619 33 50 0.66

7.38 20 54 0.37 27 57 0.474 34 54 0.63

7.49 13 61 0.213 32 63 0.508 32 53 0.604

7.58 20 54 0.37 26 59 0.441 49 59 0.831

8.04 16 63 0.254 34 66 0.515 26 47 0.553

8.19 10 54 0.185 38 72 0.528 26 60 0.433

m: Number of people who manage to get inside the coach

n: Number of people who tried to get inside the coach

p: Probability/chance of getting inside the coach

Statistical Calculation

� Mean = 0.4867

� Median = 0.508

� Mode = 0.333

� Range = 0.646

� Inter – Quartile Range = 0.2655

� Sample Variance = 0.0311

� Sample Standard Deviation = 0.1763

� Sample Skewness = -0.073

� Sample Kurtosis = -0.7162

� Population Variance = 0.0299

� Population Standard Deviation = 0.1730

� Population Skewness = -0.069

� Population Kurtosis = -0.8045

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Probability calculated on the basis of Train and Coach

Train Probability

6.49 0.380

7.03 0.399

7.11 0.663

7.27 0.652

7.38 0.488

7.49 0.439

7.58 0.550

8.04 0.437

8.19 0.390

Coach Probability

1st 0.362

6th 0.467

10th 0.627

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

P

r

o

b

a

b

i

l

i

t

y

6.49 7.03 7.11 7.27 7.38 7.49 7.58 8.04 8.19

Train

Probability (Train)

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

P

r

o

b

a

b

i

l

i

t

y

1st 6th 10th

Coach Number

Probability (Coach)

4.4 Preliminary Conclusion

� Probability of boarding the train from the 10th coach (0.627) is the highest while that of 1st coach

(0.362) is lowest

� Probability of boarding the 7.11 local (0.663) is the highest while that of 6.49 local (0.380) is the lowest

� P [Getting into a Virar bound Local from Borivali station during the peak hours] = 0.486

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5

DATA INTERPRETATION

The Probability of 0.486 shows that a person at Borivali Station waiting to board the Virar Local during the

peak hours has a chance of less than 50% of being successful

We can also interpret that the reason of higher success rate at/around coach number 10 could be because of

the foot over bridge, which leads to the bus stop and the auto rickshaw stand outside the station

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6

CONCLUSION

Probability of success being only 48.6% is very low

In the near future the probability may drop even further due to the residential developments in the Vasai –

Virar region and the commercial developments in the Borivali region

The Western railways may end up falling into big trouble if they act fast!!!

6.1 Causes

� No direct road link between Borivali and Vasai-Virar

� No alternative mode of transportation

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7

RECOMMENDATION

The project of Quadrupling of the railway tracks between Borivali and Virar has to take the front seat

The old engines has to be replaced by newer and faster engines, which will increase the train speed and hence

the frequency of the trains could be looked upon

Old coaches/racks has to be replaced by new spacious and lighter ones

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A Positive outcome is that, The Western Railway has already taken its first step towards the improvement of

Western Railway. They have started replacing their old engines and racks with new ones from May 2007

onwards. But they need to accelerate in the Quadrupling project.

*****