tree bio electric potential (tbp ...tree bio-electric potential (tbp) observationandpractical...
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TREE BIO-ELECTRIC POTENTIAL (TBP)
OBSERVATION AND PRACTICAL
EARTHQUAKE (EQ) PREDICTION
EXPERIMENT BASED ON MULTI-
METHOD AT MULTI-POINT BY
ENGINEERS AND CIVILIANS
2014/12/102014/12/102014/12/102014/12/10
SAITO YoshiharuSAITO YoshiharuSAITO YoshiharuSAITO Yoshiharu
Japan Society of Ecology and Disaster Prevention(JSEDiP)Japan Society of Ecology and Disaster Prevention(JSEDiP)Japan Society of Ecology and Disaster Prevention(JSEDiP)Japan Society of Ecology and Disaster Prevention(JSEDiP)
TORIYAMA Hideo Tokyo TORIYAMA Hideo Tokyo TORIYAMA Hideo Tokyo TORIYAMA Hideo Tokyo Woman’s Christian University Emeritus professorWoman’s Christian University Emeritus professorWoman’s Christian University Emeritus professorWoman’s Christian University Emeritus professor
YADA YADA YADA YADA NaoyukiNaoyukiNaoyukiNaoyuki Kanagawa Kanagawa Kanagawa Kanagawa Institute of Technology Associate professorInstitute of Technology Associate professorInstitute of Technology Associate professorInstitute of Technology Associate professor
KANEKO KANEKO KANEKO KANEKO Mitsuhiro Private Mitsuhiro Private Mitsuhiro Private Mitsuhiro Private laboratory of tidal level laboratory of tidal level laboratory of tidal level laboratory of tidal level deviationdeviationdeviationdeviation
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Behaviors of small animals
before huge earthquake
Alignment to one direction of
earthworm before Taiwan Chi-Chi EQ
M=7.6 1999/09/21
© NPO e-PISCO Plenty of frogs appeared on the
road 2 days before a China EQ
© NPO e-PISCO
Cats, Dogs, Cat fish, and so on
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Animals have instinct to catch
precursor from huge earthquake
3
Elephants at Sumatra EQ
M=9.1 2004/12/26
© University of Virginia
Behaviors of big animals before huge earthquake
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Plants shows anomalous action
Mimosa Pudica reacts when it is touched by hand, vent down
before typhoon and anomalous action before EQ
touch
4
Plants feel external stimulation
Plants have instinct to catch precursor
from huge earthquake, too
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Observation System
As short as possible
Tree Bio-electric
Potential (TBP)
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Adequate kind of Trees for observation
- Evergreen broad-leaved trees
- Smooth bark
- The age of tree is several years or
more
- Silk tree, Zelkova tree, Fragrant olive,
Camellia, and so on
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Anomaly was observed at 17 EQs of 28 EQs with
magnitude of about 7.0 occurred between 1977 and
1989 around Japan28 EQs with magnitude of about 7.0 occurred between 1977 and 1989
around Japan, obvious anomaly was observed at 17 EQ of those.
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Anomaly was observed at 17 EQs of 28 EQs with
magnitude of about 7.0 occurred between 1977 and
1989 around Japan
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Anomalous patterns
Noisy Pattern
Momentary Drop Pattern
in every approx. 10 minutes
Momentary Drop Pattern
in every approx. 1 hour
Rectangular Pattern 9
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Anomalous patterns
Momentary Drop Pattern
in every 30-40 minutes
Charge-Discharge Pattern10
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Anomalous patterns
Long Term Pattern
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1.5 Months before EQ
3 Months before EQ
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1978/06/12 17:14 Miyagi off M=7.4
1 day before
2 days before
3 days before
4 days before
The day EQ occurred
Examples of Anomalous signal 1
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Examples of Anomalous signal 2A
4 days before
3 days before
2 days before
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Examples of Anomalous signal 2B
The day EQ occurred
1984/09/14 8:49 Nagano West M=6.8
1 day before
1 day after
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Examples of Anomalous signal 3
1983/05/26 Akita off M=7.7
Tokyo Suginami
Synchronous at various
observation posts
Tokyo Daita
Kawasaki
Tokyo Seijo
Mobara
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Examples of Anomalous signal 4
Charge-Discharge Curve observed 10 hours
prior to a huge earthquake
162003/5/26 Miyagi off M7.0
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Location of Epicenter and Observation Post
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Where anomaly signal comes from?
Isolate root from ground
-> No anomaly was observed
-> Provably thru root
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Non seismic signal
Felling of a branch
Hitting tree by baseball bat
Lightning
Electric train
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EQ prediction by TBP
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1. Tree is a sensor of EQ precursor
2. There is individuality for each EQ
3. These anomalous actions may be caused
by receiving electric magnetic (EM) signal
through ground via root
4. As mechanism is not solved yet, to predict
the 3 elements of earthquake occurrence
i.e. when, where and magnitude is very
difficult
5. however, it is possible to predict
occurrence of huge earthquake soon
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Observation of Direct Emission of EM at several
frequency bands with adjacent dual frequency
Seismic signal contains some frequency band widthSeismic signal contains some frequency band widthSeismic signal contains some frequency band widthSeismic signal contains some frequency band width
� Signal appear at both channels: may be seismicSignal appear at both channels: may be seismicSignal appear at both channels: may be seismicSignal appear at both channels: may be seismic
� Signal appear at Signal appear at Signal appear at Signal appear at one channelone channelone channelone channel: may be : may be : may be : may be not seismicnot seismicnot seismicnot seismic
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Observation System
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Data Processor
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1.1.1.1. Capable Capable Capable Capable to input 10 to input 10 to input 10 to input 10 Channels Channels Channels Channels analog analog analog analog datadatadatadata
2.2.2.2. Digitize Digitize Digitize Digitize in 1kHz sampling in 1kHz sampling in 1kHz sampling in 1kHz sampling raterateraterate
3.3.3.3. Outputs Outputs Outputs Outputs maximum, minimum and average value in maximum, minimum and average value in maximum, minimum and average value in maximum, minimum and average value in
every every every every 1 minute 1 minute 1 minute 1 minute in CSV format to in CSV format to in CSV format to in CSV format to CPU (LINUX one CPU (LINUX one CPU (LINUX one CPU (LINUX one
board Micro CPU)board Micro CPU)board Micro CPU)board Micro CPU)
4.4.4.4. Maximum Maximum Maximum Maximum value value value value is is is is useful to measure impulsive useful to measure impulsive useful to measure impulsive useful to measure impulsive
signalsignalsignalsignal
5.5.5.5. CPU CPU CPU CPU outputs to Observation Web Server to outputs to Observation Web Server to outputs to Observation Web Server to outputs to Observation Web Server to
produce daily, produce daily, produce daily, produce daily, weekly, monthly and 3 monthly weekly, monthly and 3 monthly weekly, monthly and 3 monthly weekly, monthly and 3 monthly
graphs.graphs.graphs.graphs.
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EM Anomalous signal prior to 2012/09/14
02:22 Chiba North-East M5.1Synchronous at various freq. band and
observation posts
1 week before at
Atsugi MF Band
1 week before at
Atsugi LF Band
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EM Anomalous signal prior to 2012/09/14
02:22 Chiba North-East M5.1Synchronous at various freq. band and
observation posts
1 week before at
Yokohama
MF Band
1 week before at
Sagamihara
MF Band
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Location of Epicenter and Observation Post
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Aero Ion Observation
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-11 days -9 days
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Location of Epicenter and Observation Post
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Tidal Level Deviation
1 year before the
EQ
1 day on the day
of EQ
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Before 2011/03/11
M9 Tohoku EQ
-7 months -4 months
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Tidal Level Deviation
Before 2011/03/11 M9
Tohoku EQ
Before 2007/07/16 M=6.8
Niigata S off EQ
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Tidal Level Deviation
±±±±2 Months
1 day on the
day of EQ
2007/07/16 M=6.8
Niigata S off
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Tidal Level Deviation
±±±±15 days
2014/03/14 M6.2
78.0km Iyonada
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Conclusions1. Multi Method and Multi Observation Post is significant
for EQ Prediction
2. Government and Scholars are difficult to announce
prediction of EQ
3. Engineers and Civilians are possible to announce
prediction of EQ
4. Important for practical EQ prediction that “Swing and
miss is better, no swing and strike is worth”
5. NPO will be approved in January 2015
-> NPO Japan Earthquake Precursor Comprehensive
Observation Center (JEPCO Center)
E-Mail: [email protected]
Web Site: http://www.jsedip.jp/33