trend detection and analysis on twitter

Trend Detection and Analysis on Twitter

Benjamin Räthlein Henning Muszynski Lukas Masuch

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Motivation

Predict the stock market in real time source

source

Detecting influenza epidemics

Automatic crime prediction source

“Successful results of mainly research-based projects

helped to open up new business opportunities”

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1681873/twitter-can-predict-the-stock-market-if-youre-reading-the-right-tweets

http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en/archive/papers/detecting-influenza-epidemics.pdfDE83tYmC53DGQ&bvm=bv.86475890,d.bGQ

http://ptl.sys.virginia.edu/ptl/sites/default/files/sbp2012_wgb.pdf

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Twitter

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Early Trend Detector

Bag-of-words (Hashtags, Mentions)

Twitter Streaming API (Twython)

Architecture

Bag of Words

Bags Count

#newyear 7

#christmas 6

@bigdata 2

@sap 3

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Statistical Measurement




Architecture

Statistical Measurement (growth, average usage, retweets, participating users…)

Report statistics (every 20 minutes): • Total hashtags & user mentions • Hashtag/mentions count • Usage growth per hashtag/mention • Participating users per hashtag/mention • Retweet count per hashtag/mention

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Architecture


Anomaly Detection

Time Series Analysis

Calculated for every hashtag / user mention Every 2 / 4 hours based on reports

Anomaly detection using: • Relative & absolute fluctuation • Total occurrences (sum) • Minimum occurrences • Maximum occurrences • Average occurrences


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Architecture

Trend Analyzer

Text Preprocessing (Python NLTK)

Lowercasing & tokenizing

URL & stopword removal

Stop Word Removal

This sample text shows which words will be removed when applying stop word removal. Mostly words like the, a or and.

This sample text shows which words will be removed when applying stop word removal. Mostly words like the, a or and.

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Architecture

Trend Analyzer




Word stemming

Stemming

Amazing

Amazement

Amazed

amaze

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Architecture

Trend Analyzer




Word stemming

Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment Analysis

I love cookies I hate cookies

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Architecture

Trend Analyzer




Word stemming

Sentiment Analysis

Topic Modeling (LDA)

Topic Modeling

Topics • … • … • …

Trend Classification

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Trend Analyzer




Word stemming

Sentiment Analysis

Topic Modeling (LDA)

Wordcloud Visualization

Wordfreq.js

Wordcloud2.js

GeoSpatial Visualization

CartoDB



Anomaly Detection



Trend Classification


Architecture

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Analyzed Trends

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Limitations

Tweets collected: 38 million (70GB)

Only English tweets from the USA

Twitter Streaming API

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New Year

Time Series

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New Year

Word Cloud

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New Year

Geospatial Analysis

Midnight Los Angeles Midnight New York

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New Year

Sentiment Analysis

Positive Neutral Negative

Home sick on #nye. Horrible timing

stupid cold. Ugh. My date is my

couch & pillow watching.

#HappyNewYear everyone.

#HappyNewYear from the Youth for

Astronomy and Engineering Program

at Space Telescope Science Institute!

Happy New Year! Last year was

amazing, and here’s to another great

year of love & happiness! #NYE2015

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Air Asia Tragedy

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Air Asia Tragedy

Time Series

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Air Asia Tragedy

Word Cloud

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Air Asia Tragedy

Topic Modeling

News airasia, missing, flight, air, Indonesia, singapore, asia

Search for the Plane airasia, missing, plane, find, plane, world, technology

Sympathy Prayers, families, thoughts, airasia, crash, thought, airfrance

Cause airasia, weather, flight, pilots, fly, bad, path

International Help raaf, butterworth, china, australia, Russia, trndnl, trending

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Air Asia Tragedy

Sentiment Analysis

Neutral Negative Positive

Prayers are USELESS! Stop repeating

meaningless crap, pretending that

you care … #PrayForAirAsia #QZ8501

#GrowABrain #ReligousNonsense

#BREAKING #AirAsia Flight #8501

likely “at the bottom of the sea”

rescue officials says.

May God’s great love shine on the

families and loved ones of all

passengers and crew #AirAsia #8501

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Air Asia Tragedy

Google Trends Comparison

Google Trends Twitter Sample

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Air Asia Tragedy

Google Trends Comparison

Google Trends Twitter Sample

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Sony Hack

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Sony Hack

Time Series

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Sony Hack

Word Cloud

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Sony Hack

Topic Modeling

Christmas Release theinterview, christmas, day, theaters, freedom, theater, showing

Reviews theinterview, jamesfrancotv, sethrogen, movie, interview, funny, hilarious

Suspicions northkorea, sonyhack, korea, north, internet, sony, amp

News theinterview, sonypictures, sony, movie, korea, north, interview

Insider Joke theinterview, aint, hate, cuz, jealous, anus, peanutbutter

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Sony Hack

Geospatial Analysis

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Sony Hack

Sentiment Analysis


#TheInterview SUCKS!!! @sethrogen

Like I knew it would #Stupid

#NotFunny

#Sony says #TheInterview made

more than $1 million at the box office

on in 1 single day on Dec. 25.

Happy I joined my fellow Americans

in the great #TheInterview Christmas

Day Viewing. Plus it was pretty funny,

truth be told.

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Network Outage

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Network Outage

Time Series

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Network Outage

Word Cloud

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Network Outage

Topic Modeling

Network Error xbox, psn, sign, connect, live, error, account, issues

Connection between Hacks xbox, playstation, watch, movie, fuckcrucifix, north, korea, interview

Xbox Down xbox, christmas, play, xboxlivedown, live, xboxlive, xboxsupport, day

Caused Damage playstation, dollar, psn, company, lizardsquad, sony, billion, multi

Hacker Group fuckcrucifix, lizardmafia, lizardsquad, fuck,lizard, squad, finestsquad, stop

Restored psn, back, playstation, online, askplaystation, network, psndown, working

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Network Outage

Sentiment Analysis


@XboxSupport f*** your servers, a

big ass company like you should

handle these teenage kids, terrible

@AskPlayStation when will the

service be back online because it says

there’s maintenance?

@PlayStation thanks for the great

year. I am sure this new year will be

amazing. Don’t allow yourselves to

be hacked ever again.

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Conclusion

High quality insights into world’s interest

Twitter is very good for detecting and predicting trends

Maintaining a high data quality is important

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#Questions

Benjamin Räthlein @B3nRa

Henning Muszynski @henningmus

Lukas Masuch @LukasMasuch

trend detection and analysis on twitter

Data & Analytics