The Future of Communications:

How Will The Market Evolve?

- Seeks to break monopolies and duopolies by creating broadband infrastructure and opening up space for competition

– In pursuit of employment opportunities

Governmental Regulation

– Market self-regulation influence economic- dynamics

- Incentive for investment comes form expected returns.

Corporate Interests

Free-flow of Information and communication as an strategic tool for development, job creation and quality of life

They both start from the same principle of creating

wealth in society

2

Common carriers and Mass-media from 1934 Communications Act until 1996 Telecommunications Act

•Necessary for well functioning of the state•Mostly monopoly and nearly monopoly providers•Service under surveillance by state and federal regulators

Common carriers Mass-media

•Cross-ownership and concentration of ownership limited•Behavior under scrutiny and license renewal time

Both common carriers and mass media are required to serve the public but they differ on

how to do so

Invested in the status-quo regime Market-place oriented

Proper way to apply shared goals of fostering fair competition and developing the communications marketplace in ways that

benefit the public

•Pro-marketplace push•Communications policy market oriented•Deregulatory approach•Democrats in Congress battle the F.C.C

•Started since about three decades ago•Has provoked considerable regulation•Antitrust Act of 1992•Large media firm won waivers for cross-ownership rules•TV networks succeed lifting the rules banning them from content production during the 90’s

Proper way to apply shared goals of fostering fair competition and developing the communications marketplace in ways that

benefit the public

•Argued that spectrum has become abundant•The major problems was to liberate the market to develop cheap, effective and diverse uses.•Consumer have new electronic options including cable and video-cassette•The public’s interest is what the public is interested in. (Mark Fowler).

•Spectrum remained scarce both because few outlets available for broadcast TV and because whoever was using over-the-air spectrum was monopolizing it•True diversity of sources and perspective requires social subsidy

Marketplace Conservatives Status-quo Liberals

1994 Proliferation of the Internet as a commercial service. 1996 President Clinton signed telecommunications Act

•Newt Gingrich” “Cyberspace and the American Dream•Third Wave society’s universal access to broadband communication•Reduce government barriers to entry and innovation•Permission to cable and telephone companies to unite to provide broadband services rather than forcing them to compete, to permit faster, more efficient construction of networks•The role for government is to remove barriers for competition and massively deregulate the telecommunications and computing industries

•Social benefit provisions –included rights of disabled, children etc- not likely to be provided by the marketplace•Spectrum allocation for non-profit and public use went down from 20% to 5%•Requirement to provide all public TV channels on any video service•Abolition of price regulation of cable television services.

Republicans in the House of Representatives 1994 Regulation proponents

Concentration

acculturation

Language preference, inside and outside the

Home

Geodemographic context influences perceived

pressure to acculturate

Behaviors associated with the celebration of ethnic heritage (holidays, food,

etc.)

Concentration

Competition and Concentration

acculturation

Foreign born vs. US born

Level of education at time of entry into US

correlated with ease of transition

Self-identified association with an ethnic group

Acculturation increases as immigrants live

extended periods of time in the US

Competition

SNS

DIGITAL PHONE

  DIGITAL CABLE BUNDLE

Web OffersWireless Offers

The number of cell phones in the world today is 1.5 billion and growing. Airlines will soon be allowing cell phones on planes. Cities

such as Philadelphia and San Francisco have plans to blanket themselves with seamless Wi-Fi networks. Telecoms such as Verizon Communications and SBC Communications are doing trial runs of fiber to the home (FTTH), technology that promises broadband speeds of more than 100 times that of current digital subscriber lines (DSL) or

cable. It all adds up to a future flooded with great, big wired and wireless

pipelines of data coming at you from all directions in all locations at all times. To some, this will be a wonderland of entertainment and

telecommunications possibilities. To others, this will be a nightmare of in-your-face digital annoyances.

Communication Devices Of The Future Regardless of your views on the matter, this always-on, always-connected future will mean at least an evolution, and at most, a radical rethinking of the devices we use to communicate. Many

strategists foresee a convergence of devices, creating one super-capable, portable widget that handles computing, communications,

scheduling and finances. Another possibility is that cheap computing power will simply add intelligence to everything from our appliances to our clothing, and every object will join into an organically linked network. Other people see a need for electronics that can help us

communicate in different and unorthodox ways--moving beyond mere voice and the written word.

The number of cell phones in the world today is 1.5 billion and growing. Airlines will soon be allowing cell phones on planes. Cities

such as Philadelphia and San Francisco have plans to blanket themselves with seamless Wi-Fi networks. Telecoms such as Verizon Communications and SBC Communications are doing trial runs of fiber to the home (FTTH), technology that promises broadband speeds of more than 100 times that of current digital subscriber lines (DSL) or

cable. It all adds up to a future flooded with great, big wired and wireless

pipelines of data coming at you from all directions in all locations at all times. To some, this will be a wonderland of entertainment and

telecommunications possibilities. To others, this will be a nightmare of in-your-face digital annoyances.

Communication Devices Of The Future Regardless of your views on the matter, this always-on, always-connected future will mean at least an evolution, and at most, a radical rethinking of the devices we use to communicate. Many

strategists foresee a convergence of devices, creating one super-capable, portable widget that handles computing, communications,

scheduling and finances. Another possibility is that cheap computing power will simply add intelligence to everything from our appliances to our clothing, and every object will join into an organically linked network. Other people see a need for electronics that can help us

communicate in different and unorthodox ways--moving beyond mere voice and the written word.

By YUKARI IWATANI KANE, TING-I TSAI And NIRAJ SHETH

Apple Inc. plans to begin producing this year a new iPhone that could allow U.S. phone carriers other than AT&T Inc. to sell the

iconic gadget, said people briefed by the company. The new iPhone would work on a type of wireless network called

CDMA, these people said. CDMA is used by Verizon Wireless, AT&T's main competitor, as well as Sprint Nextel Corp. and a handful of

cellular operators in countries including South Korea and Japan. The vast majority of carriers world-wide, including AT&T, use another

technology called GSM.

By YUKARI IWATANI KANE, TING-I TSAI And NIRAJ SHETH

Apple Inc. plans to begin producing this year a new iPhone that could allow U.S. phone carriers other than AT&T Inc. to sell the

iconic gadget, said people briefed by the company. The new iPhone would work on a type of wireless network called

CDMA, these people said. CDMA is used by Verizon Wireless, AT&T's main competitor, as well as Sprint Nextel Corp. and a handful of

cellular operators in countries including South Korea and Japan. The vast majority of carriers world-wide, including AT&T, use another

technology called GSM.

In a jointly penned op-ed Tuesday, Google CEO Eric Schmidt and Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg lauded the agency for its national

broadband plan but also cautioned regulators against meddling too much where, the execs said, private industry has been doing just

fine."The Internet has thrived in an environment of minimal regulation. While our two companies don't agree on every issue, we do agree

generally as a matter of policy that the framework of minimal government involvement should continue," they said.

In a jointly penned op-ed Tuesday, Google CEO Eric Schmidt and Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg lauded the agency for its national

broadband plan but also cautioned regulators against meddling too much where, the execs said, private industry has been doing just

fine."The Internet has thrived in an environment of minimal regulation. While our two companies don't agree on every issue, we do agree

generally as a matter of policy that the framework of minimal government involvement should continue," they said.

The Best Effort Network: This future embraces net neutrality and the demands by content providers and activists for a best-effort web, but “uncertainty about the potential to make a return on infrastructure

investments could slow the pace of rollout and thus the transformation to new access technologies.”

The Utopia Network: Somehow ISPs and content providers figure out how to set very specific rules over how traffic is prioritized and by whom. That level of certainty allows ISPs to make investments and ensures that

new business models can emerge.

The Cable Television Web: This Internet doesn’t refer to actual cable providers, but to the business model of selling premium content and

services. This scenario is one where ISPs have figured out that they can build out managed services and charge based on delivering their own

products at high quality. Other players and even consumers may end up with the scraps, unless they sign deals with the ISPs, as we’ve written

about here.

The Surveillance Web: This is the ISP-as-spy vision of the future. Because ISPs have to be responsible for what traverses their network, they are will become closed and less tolerant of experimentation, and

innovation will flounder.

Sweden Predicts the Future of Broadband

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Sources:

– Patricia Aufderheide

– Verizon

– AT&T

– Comcast

– Sprint

– American mobil

– The New York Times

– Forbes

– The Washington Post

– Gartner

– Gigaom

– Comcast

– Apple

– National Geographic 53

- Gridstone

- eMarketer

- Admob

- Peter Rysavy