BUSINESS B8

Emerging Trends and Technologies

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Learning Outcomes

1. Identify the trends that will have the greatest impact on future business

2. Identify the technologies that will have the greatest impact on future business

3. Explain why understanding trends and new technologies can help an organization prepare for the future

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Introduction

Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future

Organizations that can most effectively grasp the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence

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Trends

Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts

Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers

Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future

Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis

Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments

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Top reasons organizations should study trends

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Trends Shaping Our Future

World’s population will double in the next 40 years Population in developed countries is living longer Growth in information industries creates a

knowledge-dependent global society The global economy is becoming more integrated The economy and society are dominated by

technology Pace of technological innovation is increasing Time is becoming one of the most precious

commodities

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The world’s population will double over the next 40 years

Potential business impact: Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food

as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years

Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive

Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits

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Potential business impact: Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the

coming decades The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine

Population in developed countries is living longer

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The growth in information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global society

83% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers by 2005

A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managers

Potential business impact: Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and

achieve success Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their

proliferation is increasing overall prosperity Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level

of education Information now flows from front-office workers to higher

management for analysis Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and

layoffs will continue

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The global economy is becoming more integrated International outsourcing is on the rise The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital

controls Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in

2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly

Potential business impact: Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the

need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures

E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business

The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment

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The economy and society are dominated by technology Computers are becoming a part of our environment By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help

most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s computers

Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010

Potential business impact: New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to

create businesses and jobs Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products

and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits

Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to grow

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Pace of technological innovation is increasing Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years 50% of what students learn in their freshman year of

college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior year

All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050

Potential business impact: Shortened time-to-market for products and services Tighter competition based on new technologies

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Time is becoming one of the world’s most precious commodities U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they

did a decade ago European executives and nonunionized workers face the

same trend This high-pressured environment is increasing the need

for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life

Potential business impact: Companies must take an active role in helping their

employees balance their work and lives Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and

wellness will continue to grow Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to

perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates

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The following technologies have the potential to change our future Digital ink Digital paper Radio frequency identification (RFID) Teleliving Alternative energy sources Autonomic computing

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Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink)

refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form

Digital ink can be used in many applications: Point-of-sale signs Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers

RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhere

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Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper)

any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing

The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time

Potential business impact: Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,

magazines, and books Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

Digital Paper

Digital ink and digital paperpast, present, and future

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Radio frequency identification (RFID)

RFID – uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information to electronic readers

RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual scanning, such as required with a bar code

Potential business impact: Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and

inventory flow through a supply chain Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing

systems while gathering more information Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive

labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory

counts

Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID

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Closing Case One:Mail with PostalOne

United States Postal Service’s (USPS) productivity has grown by only 11 percent over the past three decades

USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase growth including:

NetPost Mailing Online Post Electronic Courier Service NetPost.Certified EBillPay

1. Do you think the USPS’s steps are far-reaching enough to ensure its relevance in e-business?

2. What other strategic alliances, akin to its partnership with CheckFree, can the Postal Service develop to stay competitive?

3. Why would the USPS compete in a market that private companies already serve well?

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Teleliving

Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly

Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even praying

Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs

Potential business impact In the future, people will move through a constant stream of

information summoned at the touch of a finger Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or

portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems

Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job

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Alternative Energy Sources

Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use

By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europe’s energy

Potential business impact: China, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing

their economies, which increases their needs for energy Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase

innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source

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Autonomic Computing

Autonomic computing – a self-managing computing model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s autonomic nervous system

Potential business impact: Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT

infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover

Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows

Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal” Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”

Autonomic Computing