Trends In The Automotive Space@marcusnelsonAPRIL 1st, 2015

– Henry Ford

"Mark my word: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming.

You may smile, but it will come.”

We were promised flying cars

Yesteryear’s challenges

• Feasibility of a flying car: • ENGINEERING - Must safely take off, fly and land throughout urban environments • SAFETY - Pilot training, safety checks, 3 dimensional space are all problematic

• ECONOMICS - Small but powerful propulsion costs millions to produce

90 Years Later…

AeroMobil 3.0 —- maybe in 2017

Today’s automotive challenges

• Automaker competencies are focussed around making engines and auto bodies, designing and marketing cars

• Still rebuilding their workforces after having shed more than 470,000 jobs during the Great Recession

• This may mean creating and empowering smaller, more nimble teams and developing a higher tolerance for risk

• Big players in the space may no longer dominate the future of mobility

Looking forward…

• Emissions concerns • Smart cars • Connected car data • Self-driving cars

• Consumer Preferences • Access over ownership • Rise of ride/car sharing • 3D printing

Emissions concerns

• EFFICIENT — Burning less fuel, generates fewer emissions • CLEANER — Biofuels reduce emissions by 80 percent • ELECTRIC — Renewable sources produce zero emissions

Smart Cars

• COMPLEXITY — High-end cars now have more lines of codethan fighter jets make intelligent decisions for the drivers and passengers

• AUTOMATION — Sensors enable changes in driving conditions, parking, braking and ground clearance without human interference

• ADD-ONS — new interfaces and connections to mobile devices • COSTS — The value of a car increasingly resides in software and electronics

Connected car data

• COMPUTERS — In-car Internet and the array of sensors collecting data on speed, driving skills and traffic conditions

• DOCKING — Smartphone integration is more important than ‘smart’ standalone services such as GPS or entertainment systems

• REPORTING — Notifications push to mobile devices to indicate changes in mechanical conditions of automobile or analyze driving habits

Self-Driving Cars

• DRIVERLESS — Already appearing automatic parking spaces, maintaining safe following distances and stay in lane in steady traffic

• RACE — Google, Cisco, Tesla, and even Apple are rumored to be working on autonomous technologies

• BENEFITS — Reduction in traffic accidents, disabled given new freedoms to travel, driving becomes a leisure activity or possible productive rather than a chore

Consumer Preferences

• INFOTAINMENT — A recent Consumer Reports survey found that infotainment equipment was the most troublesome feature in 2014 vehicles, suggesting a powerful upside for companies that can devise superior systems

• SMARTPHONES — Consumers want to integrate with their connected cars rather than purchase an additional, sub-standard technology ecosystem

• ATTITUDES — Millennials in particular are comfortable without ownership of transportation, yet wish to control mobility

Access over ownership

• MOBILITY — 91% of Millennials surveyed say owning a car is very important to their life, though access to and owning a car are synonymous for most

• LICENSES — declining number of 16-year-olds with drivers licenses • CONVENIENCE — As access trumps ownership for more car drivers, the notion

of the vehicle as docking station will become even more critical.

Rise of ride/car sharing

• BIAS — Appeals to younger, urban male and single. Half of consumers consider such services, so still more education and trust-building needed

• EFFICIENCY — Smartphone make ridesharing significantly more convenient to browse, book and pay for a car or ride

• ACCOUNTABILITY — Part of the sharing economy is developing a good reputation that situates one as trustworthy and reliable.

• DATA — Personal profiles and transaction transparency build strong and connected communities for sharing.

3-D Printing

• PROTOTYPING — Manufacturers now able to turn around ideas in close to real time meaning faster time to delivery

• MATERIALS — Evolutionary changes in composite materials are making product modeling stronger and more durable

• CUSTOMIZATION — After-market and consumers able to design and build modifications to existing specifications to create the cars they desire

Summary

• OPPORTUNITY — Boost renewable energy to promote zero emissions • OPPORTUNITY — Simplifying code and streamlining user experience • OPPORTUNITY — Treat vehicle as mobile docking station for interoperability • OPPORTUNITY — Reduce dependency on ownership, focus on mobility • OPPORTUNITY — Incorporate ride sharing as an evolving marketplace • OPPORTUNITY — Manufacture with aftermarket modifications in mind

And this time… Can we not take 90 years to get there please?

Thank you

sources:

http://www.slideshare.net/maxusmetalworks/metalworks-5-trends-that-will-shape-the-future-of-automotive?qid=427371a0-ec80-4a7e-bb79-c320bc99469f&v=qf1&b=&from_search=6

http://www.slideshare.net/davidberkowitz/the-future-of-mobility-how-we-connect-to-ours-by-mry?related=1

http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2014/02/high-tech-automotive-headaches/index.htm

http://www.at.ford.com/SiteCollectionImages/2014_NA/Dec/Ford-2015-TrendReportBook.pdf

https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North%20America/US/2013/12/12/Ford_2014_TrendReport.pdf

http://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/me-my-life-my-car.pdf

http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/perspectives/2015-auto-trends