trim daily - trimegah.com · 3/23/2015 · these supermarkets are not (yet) game changer in our...

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

This week we will see the rest of the 4Q results published. Among the big

caps that have not published yet: UNVR, GGRM. We published an on the

ground report on RALS’ new supermarket stores post re-modeling w/ SPAR:

these supermarkets are not (yet) game changer in our view, as payback

period is still 13 yrs based on 30% sales growth post re-modeling vs. re-

modeling capex. Commodities: Brent crude oil up 1.6%, we think it is time to

re-visit oil and gas sector. We have Buys on PGAS, RAJA, SOCI, LEAD, WINS,

ELSA, AKRA with RAJA and LEAD as top picks. We also suggest profit taking

in CPO sector (AALI, SGRO) as govt is looking to shift the burden of biodiesel

subsidy to CPO producers. Result: SRIL above (but receivable days up signifi-

cantly).

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Mar 23, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 10 poin or 0.12% to 5,443 yester-day. Index movers were mostly driven by finance, trade and infrastructure. Total transaction value was Rp7.1tr. IDX recorded RP635bn net sell by for-eign investors. Based on technical analysis, MACD indicator signals technical rebound for today with trading the range of 5405-5464

Technical Market View

Brent oil price slightly rebound on last Friday by 2% to USD 55.43/barrel while WTI increase higher 4% to USD 45.76/barrel. Last week, the Fed kept interest rate near zero (0.25%) and lowering their interest rate target to 0.625% by the end of 2015 from the previous projection of 1.125%.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 5,443.1

Global Indices

Reksa Dana Trimegah Asset Management

Dual Listing (NYSE) Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

44.5 14,610 -0.01 -0.0TLKM

Change -0.20%

Transaction Volume (m) 6,566

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 7,126

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 5,431

Market 2015 P/E (x) 14.3

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 18,127.7 168.6 0.9

Nasdaq 5,026.4 34.0 0.7

Nikkei 19,560.2 83.7 0.4

ST Times 3,412.4 26.3 0.8

FTSE 7,022.5 60.2 0.9

Hang Seng 24,375.2 -93.6 -0.4

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 9,704.4 -20 -0.2

Trim Kapital + 3,511.8 -7.2 -0.2

Trim Syariah SHM 1,733.0 -2.9 -0.2

Tram Consumption +1,561.2 -3.6 -0.2

Trim Komb 2 2,117.2 -2.4 -0.1

Trim Syariah B 2,455.9 -1.9 -0.1

Trim Dana Stabil 2,217.2 -1.0 -0.0

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,778.2 -2.3 -0.1

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 -0.0 -0.0

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.0

Tram Strategic Fund 1,190.0 -4.9 -0.4

Trim Kas 2 1,148.5 0.2 0.0

Chg %

USD IDR 13,124 67 0.5

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.43 0.1 1.3

10 yr US govt bond (%) 1.9 -0.04 -1.9

Spread (%) 5.51 0.13 3.2

EIDO 27.3 0.3 1.0

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 586 -49 -8

Stock Price Rating Reason

TLKM 2920 Buy

In the short term, TLKM remains strong

with potential upside in the range of 2880-

2995 for today

LSIP 1835 Buy

LSIP formed a white candle and spinning

top patern. LSIP have a potential rebound

for today with trading range 1805-1890

AALI 25750 Buy

AALI formed a bullish candlestick pattern

and white soldiers formation. We expect

AALI to form a bullish continuation for-

mation with today’s trading range at

24900-26500

TBIG 9225 Buy

Stochastic oscillator indicates oversold and

will form a golden cross, in our view. We

believe TBIG is a Speculative Buy with

today’s range of 9075-9650

BMRI 12200 Sell

As MACD formed a dead cross, we expect

BMRI to move downward today within the

range of 11975-12475

BJBR 955 Sell We expect the stock would further de-

crease today within the range of 930-985

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

Result FY14

SRIL: Above

• SRIL posted strong earnings on the back of better than expected revenue and much better margins.

• Account receivable days went up from 49 days in 2013 to 85 days in 2014, but operating cash flow still improved from

negative USD27mn to positive USD7mn.

• We are reviewing our Buy rating and IDR 190 target price.

SRIL 4Q13 3Q14 4Q14 QoQ YoY FY14 YoY 4Q14 / 4Q14E

(%)

FY14 / FY14E

(%)

FY14 / cons (%)

Sales

354

153

145 -5.5% -59.2% 555 23.1% 125.2% 105.5% 103.5%

Gross Profit

77

28

46 60.5% -40.8% 122 25.7% 229.4% 126.7% NA

Operating Profit NA NA NA NA NA 95 30.2% #VALUE! 139.5% 157.9%

Net Profit

22

10

22 126.1% 0.6% 45 51.2% 335.6% 153.6% 143.9%

Gross Margins (%) 21.8% 18.6% 31.6% 22.1%

Opr Margins (%) NA NA NA 17.1%

Net Margins (%) 6.2% 6.4% 15.4% 8.1%


News of the Day

Banking: some SOE banks to acquire insurance compa-

nies

The two state-owned banks, BBNI and BBRI, continue their

plan to acquire insurance companies to support inorganic

growth. BBNI’s CEO, Achmad Baiquni, mentioned that the

company plans to establish an integrated financial services

company (BNI Financial Services Group). BBNI opens a

possibility to increase equity through rights issue in the next

5 years. Moreover, BBRI is currently in the phase of review-

ing which life insurance company to acquire. BBRI has pre-

pared Rp2tr for the acquisition. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

This might be a risk to our call on BBNI (Buy, TP Rp7,800)

and BBRI (Buy, TP Rp14,600) as they plan for inorganic

growth. ([email protected])

Banking: loan growth was -1.95% MoM as at 1M15

Until 1M15 the loan growth was -1.95% on a MoM basis. OJK

Executive, Irwan Lubis, says that the slowing loan growth

was a result of a slowing economic growth last year. Howev-

er, the regulator remains optimistic that loan growth will be

15-17% in 1Q15. Source: Kontan

Comment:

The slowing loan growth on a MoM basis is also due to 1) the

government front loading strategy as data shows that the

government has taken Rp35tr in 2M15 out of the banking

system, 2) many matured loans repaid at the end of the

year. Our call to banking sector is still OVERWEIGHT on the

back of 1) better domestic macro outlook (stable inflation,

low interest rates) which would result in lower industry NPL

and higher loan and deposit growt and, 2) the certainty from

The Fed as they indicated not to be aggressive in raising

interest rates. ([email protected])

BMRI: Bank Syariah Mandiri (BSM) targets NPF<6%

this year

Bank Syariah Mandiri, a subsidiary of BMRI, is targeting to

lower its non-performing financing (NPF) to below 6% this

year through improvement in business process, strengthen-

ing risk management and internal control, business develop-

ment, and asset recovery. BSM CEO, Agus Sudiarto, said that

the company targets to collect Rp400bn of NPF. Source:

Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Recent data from BI suggests an increase in BSM’s non-

performing financing and receivables (NPFR) ratio to 7.4%

(+40bps MoM) in 1M15. We remain cautious as this might

cause rising consolidated credit costs of BMRI (Neutral, TP

Rp12,400) in 1Q15. The more concrete strategy is therefore

needed to improve NPFR rat io in BSM.

([email protected])

BTPN: OJK claims BTPN did not issue a certificate of

deposits

The Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) claims that

they did not find any proof that BTPN had issued a Rp22bn

certificate of deposits in regards to the missing funds pos-

sessed by City Government of Semarang, Central Java. Previ-

ously, the case went out to the surface when the certificate of

deposits was going to be liquidated and BTPN stated that the

mentioned certificate was fake. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

New CPO export regulation.

The government will charge USD 50/ton CPO export effective

per mid April 2015 while keeping the import duty at 0%. The

charge will be fixed and aiming for CPO Supporting Fund. This

is part of the government’s program to raise FAME (Fatty Acid

Methyl Esters) component in biodiesel to 15% from 10%. As of

February 2015, Indonesia’s CPO export reached USD 1.4b or

around 11% from total export. Source : Kontan

([email protected])

TOTL: revised up 2015 earnings target by 8.6%

TOTL revised up its 2015 net income target by 8.6% to

Rp190bn from Rp175bn due to the early completion of several

tender offer processes in 2014. Hence, the 2015 earnings at

Rp190bn gas +16% YoY growth. In 2014 TOTL booked new

contracts totaling to Rp6.2tr consisting Rp3.5tr of regular

projects and Rp2.7tr of JO projects. Meanwhile, new contracts

in 2015 is targeted to reach at Rp3.0tr. Several ongoing mega

projects are: MNC Media Tower, Astra Tower, and office build-

ing in Lot X –SCBD. TOTL allocates Rp100bn capex this year.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])

ADHI: To distribute Rp36 per share dividend

The AGM on Friday approved to distribute cash dividend

amounting to Rp64.8bn or 20% payout ratio (DPR), translating

into Rp36.0 per shares. The dividend has 1.1% dividend yield.

The DPR of 20% is lower than previous year at 30%. The cum

date is on 27 Mar and the distribution date is on 22 Apr.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

The dividend amount at Rp36/sh is 46.8% lower than previous

year at Rp67.6/sh due to lower DPR and lower net income. We

have a Sell on ADHI with TP: Rp3200. ADHI is traded at 15.6x

2015 PE. ([email protected])


News of the Day

ACST: The tender offer price at Rp3250 per share

Based on a disclosure on mass media today, UNTR’s tender

offer price for ACST shares stands at Rp3250/sh, the price

same as the acquisition price of 40% stake by UNTR. Total

shares to participate in this action to reach 159mn shares or

31.8% stake, while UNTR is targeted to obtain 10.1% stake

or 50.5mn shares through this action. UNTR is targeting to

increase its shareholder to 50.1% from current 40.0%. The

tender offer period is on 24 Mar to 22 Apr’15. Source: Inves-

tor Daily

Comment:

Based on Bapepam regulation, the tender offer price is the

highest prices between acquisition price and 90 days aver-

age selling price prior to the acquisition announcement.

UNTR announced the acquisition on 15 Oct’14, resulting the

average selling price at Rp3,177/sh. Resulting the tender

offer price based at Rp3250/sh. However, at current price of

Rp5350, we do not think the UNTR target to obtain 10.1%

stake would be achieved. Hence, UNTR will fill the gap

through purchasing from LCK and CPI, the former majority

shareholders, which currently owned 28.2% stake. We are

reviewing our forecast and recommendation on ACST, but

maintain positive outlook due to the joining with Astra

Group. ([email protected])

Data Services: ISAT Considered to Raise Tariff

PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) considered to raise data services tariff

next quarter around 2.5% from today rate. Per 2014, ISAT’s

data services customers around 13.5 milllion, or just 24.86%

from it’s total 54.3 million customers. ISAT also will comer-

cialize 4G services in Yogyakarta and Bali on 2Q15. Source:

Indonesia Finance Today ([email protected])


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Mar-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Mar-15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

-152

8

1,297

63

0

345

8 78

2,913

-120

38

4,087

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-

14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Mar-14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Sep-14

Oct-

14

Nov-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

3/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Mar 8 6.9 7.78

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Feb 0.2 0.1 0.2

US Capacity Utilization (%) Feb 79.5 78.9 79.4

3/17/2015 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USD bn) Jan -- -27.2 35.4

US Total Net TIC Flows (USD bn) Jan -- 88.3 174.8

US Housing Starts (000's) Feb 1040 897 1065

US Building Permits Feb 1065 1092 1053

ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (%) 17-Mar 7.5 7.5 7.5

EC ZEW Survey Expectations Mar -- 62.4 52.7

EC CPI MoM (%) Feb 0.6 0.6 -1.6

EC CPI YoY (%) Feb F -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

EC CPI Core YoY (%) Feb F 0.6 0.7 0.6

3/18/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Mar -- -3.9 -1.3

3/19/2015 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (%) 18-Mar 0.25 0.25 0.25

US Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4Q 104.1 113.5 100.3

US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 14-Mar 293 291 289

US Continuing Claims (000's) 7-Mar 2400 2417 2418

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Mar -- 44.2 43.3

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar 7 5 5.2

US Leading Index Feb 0.2 0.2 0.2

3/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Feb 0.1 -- 0.13

US Existing Home Sales MoM Feb 4.92 -- 4.82

EC Consumer Confidence Mar A -5.8 -- -6.7

3/24/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Feb 0.2 -- -0.7

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Feb 1.6 -- 1.6

US CPI YoY (%) Feb -0.1 -- -0.1

US FHFA House Price Index MoM (%) Jan 0.5 -- 0.8

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar P 55.3 -- 55.1

US New Home Sales (000's) Feb 475 -- 481

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 3 -- 0

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P 51.5 -- 51

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar P 53.9 -- 53.7

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar P 53.6 -- 53.3

CH HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar P 50.5 -- 50.7

3/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Mar 0.6 -- --

US Durable Goods Orders Feb 0.6 -- 2.8

US Durables Ex Transportation Feb 0.5 -- 0.3

3/26/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims (000's) 21-Mar 290 -- 291

US Continuing Claims (000's) 14-Mar 2395 -- 2417

US Markit US Composite PMI Mar P -- -- 57.2

US Markit US Services PMI Mar P 57 -- 57.1

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Mar -- -- 44.2

EC M3 Money Supply YoY Feb -- -- 4.1

EC M3 3-month average Feb -- -- 3.6

ID Money Supply M2 YoY Feb -- -- 12.5

ID Money Supply M1 YoY Feb -- -- 8.8

3/27/2015 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.4 -- 2.2

US Personal Consumption 4Q T -- -- 4.2


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

1 17-Mar-15 ACST 105 5% 119 106 88.2% 98.4% In-line Revenus grew by +33% YoY, booked lower gross margin

2 17-Mar-15 WIKA 615 8% 641 621 96.0% 99.1% In-line Revenues grew by +5% YoY, income fr JO grew by +42% YoY, while interest exp grew triple

3 10-Mar-15 SMCB 668 -30% 934 71.6% Below Higher COS and Operating exp due to higher electricity cost and fuel price

4 10-Mar-15 WTON 329 36% 300 307 109.3% 107.0% Above Revenues grow by 24% YoY

5 4-Mar-15 BTPN 1,853 66% 1,701 1,695 91.8% 91.5% Below

The company reported stable

NPL at 0.7% (-10bps q-o-q,

+3bps y-o-y) supported by de-

clining NPL in micro segment.

6 4-Mar-15 MPPA 505 72% 593 582 117.5% 115.3% Above Supported by margin expansion

by 130bps to 3.7%.

7 3-Mar-15 SMGR 5,566 4% 5,541 5,628 100.5% 98.9% In-line

Strong revenue growth at

+10.1% YoY. Gross margins

dropped to 43% (FY13: 44.7%),

while op. margin reached 25.8%

(FY13: 28.5%)

8 3-Mar-15 PTPP 532 26% 534 517 99.7% 103.0% In-line

Revenus grew by +6.6%YoY,

higher gross margin at 12.3%

(FY13: 10.9%)

9 3-Mar-15 TBIG 924 -34% 793 595 85.8% 64.4% In-line

Last year, the company booked

net other income of Rp366 bn

(vs. FY2013 -36bn), including

forex loss of Rp192bn (FY2013 -

799bn)

10 25-Feb-15 AALI 2,490 21% 2,114 2,458 84.9% 98.7% In-line

11 25-Feb-15 ADHI 324 -20% 415 295 78.1% 109.8% Below

Negative revenus growth by -

12% YoY, lower income from JO,

and higher interest exp

12 25-Feb-15 WSKT 502 36% 486 422 103.1% 119.0% In-line Income fr JO grew double to

Rp197bn vs. Rp102bn

13 24-Feb-15 ARNA 259 1% 226 87.3% Below

14 24-Feb-15 ITMG 2,533 -17% 2,718 2,325 93.2% 91.8% Below

15 17-Feb-15 LPPF 1,419 23% 1,419 1,376 100.0% 97.0% In-line

LPPF still booked 10.7% SSSG.

We noted a declining bank loans

by 57% YoY to Rp689bn, result-

ing to a -17% interest expense.

16 12-Feb-15 BMRI 19,872 9% 18,978 19,951 95.5% 100.4% In-line

Supported by 17.3% yoy growth

in net interest income but lower

loan growth than industry.

17 6-Feb-15 JSMR 1,403 5% 1,249 1,263 89.0% 90.0% Below

Negative revenues growth

due to lower revenues from

construction, while revenues

from toll road up by +14.5%

YoY


Result FY14 (Cont’d 1)

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

18 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

19 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

20 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

21 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

BEST-W 200 10-Apr-15 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate WARAN SERI I BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-3.0

-4.2

-7.2

-8.4

BBNI

KLBF

GGRM

TLKM

BBRI

CPIN

INTP

SMGR

BHIT

MPPA6.2

5.3

3.9

3.3

3.0

1.7

1.5

1.0

0.6

0.5

AMRT

SMMA

PWON

LPKR

EMTK

ICBP

LPPF

PGAS

ASII

BBCA

366

359

352

299

253

228

224

217

206

187

- 200 400

ASII

TLKM

BBRI

BBCA

BMRI

SMGR

MPPA

LPKR

LINK

SMRA

611

310

230

208

183

176

161

148

136

128

0 500 1,000

TRAM

MTFN

PWON

CPRO

NIRO

LPKR

BUMI

SRIL

PNLF

BWPT

10,754

6,406

5,830

5,690

4,696

4,667

4,562

4,276

4,182

4,098

TRAM

TLKM

SMGR

MPPA

LPKR

SRIL

BHIT

UNTR

SMRA

BBRI

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) 4.14% 6,566

YTD (USD) 40.03% 7,126

Moving Avg 20day 5,446 5,431

Moving Avg 50day 5,344 14.3

Moving Avg 200day 5,141 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 6,541.3 -16.0 -0.2 5.5

JII 721.7 -3.2 -0.4 4.4

LQ45 946.9 -2.9 -0.3 5.4

JAKFIN Index 805.3 -0.9 -0.1 10.1

JAKINFR Index 1,117.6 -4.1 -0.4 -3.7

JAKMINE Index 1,302.5 -5.0 -0.4 -4.9

JAKCONS Index 2,306.4 1.5 0.1 5.9

JAKTRAD Index 975.5 -0.6 -0.1 11.0

JAKMIND Index 1,389.5 6.6 0.5 6.3

JAKBIND Index 485.2 -11.4 -2.3 -10.8

JAKPROP Index 554.7 2.6 0.5 5.7

JAKAGRI Index 2,331.4 -11.1 -0.5 -0.8

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 214.1 3.1 1.48 -6.9

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 55.3 0.9 1.64 -3.5

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 45.7 1.8 4.00 -14.2

Natural Gas 2.8 -0.0 -0.96 -3.9

COAL (AUS Daily) 56.6 -0.2 -0.26 -8.8

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,793.8 20.3 1.14 -2.2

Nickel (USD/tonne) 14,245 475 3.45 -6.0

Tin (USD/tonne) 17,305 330 1.94 -10.8

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,184.6 15.6 1.33 0.0

Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.9 0.8 4.77 8.2

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,168 -42.0 -1.90 -5.4

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,800 6.9 0.38 9.6

Corn (USD/bu.) 385 11.5 3.08 -3.0

Wheat (USD/bu.) 530 18.0 3.52 -10.2

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 974 12.0 1.25 -4.4

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,774.6 23.26 1.33 3.79

SPX S&P 500 2,108.1 18.83 0.90 2.39

US

18,127.7 168.6 0.94 1.71

Nasdaq US 5,026.4 34.04 0.68 6.13

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 404.0 3.18 0.79 17.96

FTSE London 7,022.5 60.19 0.86 6.95

DAX Jerman 12,039.4 140.0 1.18 22.78

CAC France 5,087.5 50.31 1.00 19.07

SMI Swiss 9,396.3 67.81 0.73 4.60

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 51,966.6 1,013 1.99 3.92

MICEX Russia 1,628.6 20.67 1.29 16.61

SENSEX India 28,261.1 -208.6 -0.73 2.77

NIFTY India 8,570.9 -63.8 -0.74 3.48

SHCOMP China 3,617.3 35.05 0.98 11.83

SZCOMP China 1,852.9 25.09 1.37 30.93

Nikkei Japan 19,560.2 83.7 0.43 12.09

TPX Japan 1,580.5 4.70 0.30 12.29

HSI Hong kong 24,375.2 -93.6 -0.38 3.26

KOSPI S.Korea 2,037.2 -0.65 -0.03 6.35

TAIEX Taiwan 9,749.7 13.0 0.13 4.75

FSSTI Singapore 3,412.4 26.28 0.78 1.40

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,530.0 -2.17 -0.14 2.15

PCOMP Philipines 7,818.4 3.8 0.05 8.13

KLCI Malaysia 1,803.7 -5.48 -0.30 2.40

VNINDEX Vietnam 575.4 1.70 0.30 5.47

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.924 -0.014 -0.01 15.53

USDGBP UK 0.669 -0.009 -0.01 11.45

USDCHF Switzerland 0.975 -0.015 -0.01 -2.48

USDCAD Canada 1.255 -0.017 -0.01 4.60

USDAUD Australia 1.286 -0.021 -0.02 7.19

USDNZD New Zealand 1.322 -0.027 -0.02 1.65

USDJPY Japan 120.04 -0.740 -0.01 0.20

USDCNY China 6.20 0.01 0.00 0.07

USDHKD Hongkong 7.758 -0.002 -0.00 -0.54

USDSGD Singapore 1.379 -0.009 -0.01 6.05

Rupiah Indonesia 13,124 67.00 0.01 5.94

JCI 5,443.1 (10.8) -0.2%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Trading Ideas 19-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct

ITMG 16,600 Buy 17025 2.56% Correct

AALI 26,625 Buy 25625 -3.76% Incorrect

ELSA 555 Buy 560 0.90% Correct

TLKM 2,950 Buy 2950 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,439 Profit Taking 5413 -0.48% Correct

UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect

ASRI 590 Buy 570 -3.39% Incorrect


MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct

ASII 7,975 Buy 8,000 0.31% Correct

PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


JCI 5,445 Cont'd Weakening 5,435 0.16% Incorrect

TLKM 2,955 Buy 2,975 0.68% Correct

LSIP 1,840 Buy 1,920 4.35% Correct

INCO 3,295 Buy 3,365 2.12% Correct

MPPA 4,200 Buy 4,435 5.60% Correct

PTPP 3,770 Buy 3,740 -0.80% Incorrect

ICBP 14,625 Sell 15,000 2.56% Incorrect


JCI 5,440 Profit Taking 5,426 -0.25% Correct

ITMG 16,950 Buy 17,300 2.06% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy 970 0.00% Correct



ASRI 560 Buy 565 0.89% Correct

GJTL 1,255 Buy 1,300 3.59% Correct

BCAP 1,770 Sell 1,780 0.56% Incorrect


JCI 5,420 Rebound 5,440 0.37% Correct



BBRI 12,775 Buy 12,900 0.98% Correct

PGAS 5,200 Buy 5,200 0.00% Correct

TRAM 91 Trading Buy 106 16.48% Correct

NIRO 214 Trading Buy 211 -1.40% Incorrect




JCI 5,463 Profit taking 5,420 -0.80% Correct

LSIP 1,875 Buy 1,845 -1.60% Incorrect

AALI 26,075 Buy 26,100 0.10% Correct


CPRO 119 Trading Buy 118 -0.84% Correct

INCO 3,380 Sell 3,335 -1.33% Correct

TINS 1,005 Sell 990 -1.49% Correct



ADRO 990 Buy 985 -0.51% Incorrect

INCO 3,425 Buy 3,380 -1.31% Incorrect


UNTR 20,625 Buy 21,350 3.52% Correct

BCIP 760 Trading Buy 750 -1.32% Incorrect

MYRX 755 Trading Buy 760 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,515 Con't Strenghtening 5,445 -1.28% Incorrect

BBNI 6,675 Buy 6,700 0.37% Correct

BDMN 4,925 Buy 4,805 -2.44% Incorrect



ASII 8,075 Buy 7,950 -1.55% Correct

NIRO 226 Trading Buy 222 -1.77% Incorrect




SCMA 3,660 Buy 3,670 0.27% Correct

NIRO 223 Buy 226 1.35% Correct

ASRI 610 Buy 610 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,980 Buy 3,960 -0.50% Correct

UNVR 36,250 Sell 37,800 4.28% Incorrect

GGRM 54,275 Sell 54,300 0.05% Correct


JCI 5,448 Con't Weakening 5,451 0.05% Incorrect


SCMA 3,570 Buy 3,660 2.52% Correct

JSMR 7,100 Buy 7,050 -0.70% Incorrect

PTPP 3,950 Buy 3,980 0.76% Correct

NIRO 220 Trading Buy 223 1.36% Correct

LSIP 1,895 Sell 1,910 0.79% Correct

UNTR 21,650 Sell 21,775 0.58% Correct


JCI 5,475 Con't Weakening 5,448 -0.49% Correct

PGAS 5,350 Buy 5,250 -1.87% Inorrect

SCMA 3,575 Buy 3,570 -0.14% Correct

NIRO 222 Buy 220 -0.90% Correct

MPPA 4,440 Buy 4,225 -4.84% Inorrect

LSIP 1,920 Sell 1,895 -1.30% Correct

ADHI 3,360 Sell 3,305 -1.64% Correct

AALI 25,625 Sell 25,975 1.37% Inorrect


JCI 5,450 Con't Strenghtening 5,475 -0.06% Incorrect


AALI 25,550 Buy 25,625 0.29% Correct

TLKM 2,950 Buy 2,945 -0.17% Correct

HRUM 1,590 Buy 1,620 1.89% Correct


ICBP 14,325 Buy 14,725 2.79% Correct




JCI 5,450 Con't Weakening 5,478 0.51% Incorrect



LPKR 1,180 Buy 1,175 -0.42% Incorrect

HRUM 1,655 Buy 1,590 -3.93% Incorrect

ITMG 16,900 Buy 17,525 3.70% Correct



Ticker Last Trading Ideas 27-Feb-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,451 Profit Taking 5,450 -0.01% Incorrect


HRUM 1,600 Buy 1,655 3.44% Incorrect


JSMR 7,075 Buy 7,100 0.35% Correct

BKSL 146 Buy 145 -0.68% Correct

BBRI 12,950 Sell 12,875 -0.58% Correct

BBNI 6,925 Sell 6,875 -0.72% Correct


JCI 5,445 Profit Taking 5,451 0.12% Incorrect


INTP 24,125 Buy 24,050 -0.31% Incorrect


SSIA 1,325 Buy 1,330 0.38% Correct


WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,675 0.68% Incorrect





SMGR 14,925 Buy 15,150 1.51% Correct


BBRI 12,800 Buy 12,925 0.98% Correct

WIKA 3,650 Sell 3,670 0.55% Incorrect



LSIP 1,825 Buy 1,805 -1.10% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 361 -0.55% Incorrect

TLKM 2,910 Buy 2,905 -0.17% Incorrect


WSKT 1,820 Sell 1,810 -0.55% Correct

ASRI 685 Sell 675 -1.46% Correct


JCI 5,400 Cont Strenghtening 5,403 0.06% Correct

BMRI 12,075 Buy 11,875 -1.66% Incorrect

BBTN 1,055 Buy 1,045 -0.95% Incorrect

GJTL 1,360 Buy 1,310 -3.68% Incorrect

AKRA 4,870 Buy 4,810 -1.23% Incorrect

ITMG 18,200 Sell 17,750 -2.47% Correct

KLBF 1,790 Sell 1,795 0.28% Correct



BWPT 366 Buy 364 -0.55% Incorrect

GGRM 55,175 Buy 55,000 -0.32% Incorrect

GJTL 1,340 Buy 1,360 1.49% Correct

ADHI 3,410 Buy 3,490 2.35% Correct

BBRI 12,475 Buy 12,725 2.00% Correct

BJBR 910 Sell 945 3.85% Incorrect





BWPT 363 Buy 366 0.83% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,775 1.90% Correct

TBIG 8,750 Buy 8,500 -2.86% Incorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,175 0.41% Correct


MPPA 4,300 Sell 4,420 2.79% Incorrect


JCI 5,325 Cont Weakening 5,338 0.23% Incorrect

BWPT 363 Buy 363 0.00% Correct

SMGR 14,500 Buy 14,675 1.21% Correct

BBRI 12,025 Buy 12,000 -0.21% Incorrect

LEAD 1,985 Buy 1,950 -1.76% Incorrect

ACES 770 Buy 765 -0.65% Incorrect

MPPA 4,200 Sell 4,300 2.38% Correct


JCI 5,374 Cont Strenghtening 5,325 -0.90% Incorrect

TINS 1,070 Buy 1,075 0.47% Correct

UNTR 18,950 Buy 18,750 -1.06% Incorrect

LPKR 1,115 Buy 1,115 0.00% Correct



KLBF 1,870 Buy 1,800 -3.74% Incorrect



TINS 1,080 Buy 1,070 -0.93% Inorrect

GGRM 54,950 Buy 55,400 0.82% Correct

LPKR 1,105 Buy 1,115 0.90% Correct

BBNI 6,725 Buy 6,675 -0.74% Incorrect

CPRO 116 Trading Buy 114 -1.72% Incorrect

BKSL 126 Trading Buy 124 -1.59% Correct


JCI 5,337 Profit Taking 5,333 -0.07% Incorrect

GGRM 55,300 Buy 54,950 -0.63% Inorrect


ANTM 1,070 Sell 1,055 -1.40% Correct

BMRI 11,750 Sell 11,875 1.06% Incorrect

GJTL 1,490 Sell 1,520 2.01% Incorrect

BRAU 90 Trading Sell 89 -1.11% Correct



ANTM 1,035 Buy 1,070 3.38% Correct

GGRM 55,875 Buy 55,300 -1.03% Incorrect


BMRI 11,625 Sell 11,750 1.08% Incorrect

BBNI 6,800 Sell 6,725 -1.10% Correct

BUMI 101 Trading Buy 101 0.00% Correct

BWPT 369 Sell 367 -0.54% Correct


JCI 5,348 Profit Taking 5,321 -0.50% Correct

ANTM 1,035 Buy 1,035 0.00% Correct

BSDE 2,095 Buy 2,100 0.24% Correct

BBRI 11,675 Buy 11,650 -0.21% Incorrect

BKSL 117 Buy 126 7.69% Correct

SMGR 14,900 Buy 14,725 -1.17% Inorrect

BUMI 100 Trading Buy 101 1.00% Correct

ADRO 980 Trading Buy 995 1.53% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

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