twenty-one years of hybrid striped bass culture in the u.s. (1987-2007) by james m. carlberg,...

TWENTY-ONE YEARS OF HYBRID STRIPED BASS TWENTY-ONE YEARS OF HYBRID STRIPED BASS CULTURE IN THE U.S. (1987-2007)CULTURE IN THE U.S. (1987-2007)

By James M. Carlberg, Michael J. Massingill, and Jon C. Van OlstBy James M. Carlberg, Michael J. Massingill, and Jon C. Van OlstKent SeaTech CorporationKent SeaTech Corporation

U. S. Production of U. S. Production of Hybrid Striped Bass Hybrid Striped Bass

During 2007During 2007

3,031,000 lb3,031,000 lb3,031,000 lb3,031,000 lb

2,698,000 lb2,698,000 lb2,698,000 lb2,698,000 lb

404,000 lb404,000 lb404,000 lb404,000 lb

4,952,000 lb4,952,000 lb4,952,000 lb4,952,000 lb

Kent SeaTech CorporationKent SeaTech CorporationData from state Aquaculture Extension Programs and a survey of major producers Data from state Aquaculture Extension Programs and a survey of major producers

U.S. Total = U.S. Total = 11,240,000 lb11,240,000 lbU.S. Total = U.S. Total = 11,240,000 lb11,240,000 lb

155,000 lb155,000 lb155,000 lb155,000 lb

Western RegionWestern RegionProduction Production ( (lb)lb)PondsPonds 3,361,0003,361,000TanksTanks 1,591,000 1,591,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 4,9520004,952000

Western RegionWestern RegionProduction Production ( (lb)lb)PondsPonds 3,361,0003,361,000TanksTanks 1,591,000 1,591,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 4,9520004,952000


Northeast Northeast RegionRegion

Production Production (lb)(lb)PondsPonds 4,0004,000TanksTanks 400,000400,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 404,000404,000

Northeast Northeast RegionRegion

Production Production (lb)(lb)PondsPonds 4,0004,000TanksTanks 400,000400,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 404,000404,000

Mid-Atlantic Mid-Atlantic RegionRegion

Production (lb)Production (lb)PondsPonds 3,031,0003,031,000TanksTanks 00CagesCages 00TotalTotal 3,031,0003,031,000

Mid-Atlantic Mid-Atlantic RegionRegion

Production (lb)Production (lb)PondsPonds 3,031,0003,031,000TanksTanks 00CagesCages 00TotalTotal 3,031,0003,031,000

Southeast RegionSoutheast RegionProduction (lb)Production (lb) PondsPonds 2,176,0002,176,000TanksTanks 522,000522,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 2,698,0002,698,000

Southeast RegionSoutheast RegionProduction (lb)Production (lb) PondsPonds 2,176,0002,176,000TanksTanks 522,000522,000CagesCages 00TotalTotal 2,698,0002,698,000

U.S. TotalU.S. Total

Production (lb)Production (lb) PondsPonds 8,5720008,572000TanksTanks 2,513,0002,513,000CagesCages 155,000155,000TotalTotal 11,240,00011,240,000

U.S. TotalU.S. Total

Production (lb)Production (lb) PondsPonds 8,5720008,572000TanksTanks 2,513,0002,513,000CagesCages 155,000155,000TotalTotal 11,240,00011,240,000

U. S. Production of Hybrid Striped Bass U. S. Production of Hybrid Striped Bass During 2007During 2007Upper Midwest Upper Midwest

RegionRegion Production (lb) Production (lb) PondsPonds 00TanksTanks 00CagesCages 155,000155,000TotalTotal 155,000155,000

Upper Midwest Upper Midwest RegionRegion Production (lb) Production (lb) PondsPonds 00TanksTanks 00CagesCages 155,000155,000TotalTotal 155,000155,000

Production of Hybrid Striped Production of Hybrid Striped Bass (lb)Bass (lb)

12,000,00012,000,000

2,000,0002,000,000

4,000,0004,000,000

6,000,0006,000,000

8,000,0008,000,000

10,000,00010,000,000


'86'86 '88'88 '90'90 '92'92 '94'94 '96'96 '98'98

CagesCagesPondsPondsTanksTanks

'00'00 '02'02 '04'04 '06'06

Production of Hybrid Striped Production of Hybrid Striped Bass (lb)Bass (lb)


1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Tanks 395,000 800,000 870,000 1,220,000 1,520,000 1,520,000 2,600,000

Ponds 10,000 80,000 150,000 370,000 730,000 730,000 950,000

Cages - - - - - - -

Total 405,000 880,000 1,020,000 1,590,000 2,250,000 2,250,000 3,550,000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Tanks 4,350,000 5,175,000 3,870,000 4,722,000 4,260,000 4,378,000 4,364,000

Ponds 1,525,000 2,325,000 3,730,000 3,615,000 5,075,000 5,317,750 6,822,000

Cages 75,000 125,000 250,000 100,000 50,000 38,000 51,000

Total 5,950,000 7,625,000 7,850,000 8,437,000 9,385,000 9,733,750 11,237,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tanks 4,383,000 4,479,000 4,848,000 4,331,000 3,846,000 3,295,000 2,513,000

Ponds 6,500,000 5,988,000 6,509,000 7,039,000 7,989,000 8,404,000 8,572,000

Cages 20,000 22,500 90,000 130,000 175,000 226,000 155,000

Total 10,903,000 10,489,500 11,447,000 11,500,000 12,010,000 11,925,000 11,240,000

Changes in Production Methods for Hybrid Changes in Production Methods for Hybrid Striped BassStriped Bass


1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993Tanks 98 91 85 77 68 73 73Ponds 2 9 15 23 32 27 26Cages 0 0 0 0 0 0 1Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%



Regional Production and Regional Production and Sales of Hybrid Striped Sales of Hybrid Striped

Bass (2007)Bass (2007)NortheastNortheastMid-AtlanticMid-Atlantic SoutheastSoutheast MidwestMidwest WestWest TotalTotal

Fresh (lb)Fresh (lb) 4,0004,000 1,830,0001,830,000 2,660,0002,660,000 00 4,657,0004,657,0009,151,0009,151,000Live (lb)Live (lb) 400,000400,000 1,201,0001,201,000 38,00038,000 155,000155,000 295,000295,000 2,089,0002,089,000Total (lb)Total (lb) 404,000404,000 3,031,0003,031,000 2,698,0002,698,000 155,000155,000 4,952,0004,952,00011,240,00011,240,000

Fresh (% of US market)Fresh (% of US market) 0%0% 20%20% 29%29% 0%0% 51%51% 100%100%Live (% of US market)Live (% of US market) 19%19% 57%57% 2%2% 7% 7% 14%14% 100%100%Total (% of US market)Total (% of US market) 4%4% 27%27% 24%24% 1% 1% 44%44% 100%100%

Fresh:Live Sales RatioFresh:Live Sales Ratio1:991:99 60:4060:40 99:199:1 0:100 0:100 94:694:6 81:1981:19(within production region)(within production region)


Changes in Regional ProductionChanges in Regional Productionand Sales of Hybrid Striped Bassand Sales of Hybrid Striped Bass

NortheastNortheast Mid-AtlanticMid-Atlantic SoutheastSoutheast MidwestMidwest West West Total Total 20062006Fresh (lb)Fresh (lb) 25,000 25,000 2,225,0002,225,000 2,095,0002,095,000 00 5,389,0005,389,0009,734,0009,734,000Live (lb)Live (lb) 389,000 389,000 1,281,0001,281,000 14,00014,000 220,000220,000 287,000287,000 2,191,0002,191,000Total (lb)Total (lb) 414,000 414,000 3,506,0003,506,000 2,109,0002,109,000 220,000220,000 5,676,0005,676,00011,925,00011,925,000

20072007Fresh (lb)Fresh (lb) 4,000 4,000 1,830,0001,830,000 2,660,0002,660,000 00 4,657,0004,657,0009,151,0009,151,000Live (lb)Live (lb) 400,000 400,000 1,201,0001,201,000 38,00038,000 155,000155,000 295,000295,000 2,089,0002,089,000Total (lb)Total (lb) 404,000 404,000 3,031,0003,031,000 2,698,0002,698,000 155,000155,000 4,952,0004,952,00011,240,00011,240,000

ChangeChangeFresh (lb)Fresh (lb) - 21,000- 21,000 - 395,000- 395,000 + 565,000+ 565,000 0 0 - 732,000 - 732,000 - 583,000- 583,000 Live (lb)Live (lb) + 11,000+ 11,000 - 80,000- 80,000 + 22,000 + 22,000 - 65,000 - 65,000 + 8,000+ 8,000 - 102,000- 102,000Total (lb)Total (lb) - 10,000- 10,000 - 475,000- 475,000 + 587,000+ 587,000 - 65,000 - 65,000 - 724,000- 724,000- 685,000- 685,000

- 2%% - 14%- 14% + 28%+ 28% - 30% - 30% - 13%- 13% - 6%- 6%

IncreaseIncrease DecreaseDecrease


Changes in Sales of Hybrid Striped BassChanges in Sales of Hybrid Striped BassDuring 1996-2007 (pounds/year) During 1996-2007 (pounds/year)


-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Fresh

Live

Changes in Wholesale Prices of Changes in Wholesale Prices of FarmedFarmed

Hybrid Striped Bass (2006-2007)Hybrid Striped Bass (2006-2007)Farm LocationFarm Location Northeast Northeast Mid-AtlanticMid-Atlantic Southeast Southeast MidwestMidwest West West Average Average

Fresh (FOB Farm)Fresh (FOB Farm)$2.55/$2.55/3.003.00 $2.71 / $2.71 /2.902.90 $2.66/ $2.66/2.922.92 (na)(na) $2.56/ $2.56/2.532.53 $2.62/ $2.62/2.722.72 + .45+ .45 + .19+ .19 + .26 + .26 -- -- - .03 - .03 + .10 + .10

Fresh (Delivered)Fresh (Delivered)$ 2.81/$ 2.81/3.503.50 $2.86/ $2.86/3.103.10 $2.91/ $2.91/3.163.16 (na)(na) $2.82/ $2.82/2.932.93 $2.85/ $2.85/3.033.03 + .69+ .69 + .24 + .24 + .25 + .25 -- -- + .09 + .09 + .18 + .18

Live (FOB Farm)Live (FOB Farm) $3.55/ $3.55/3.753.75 $3.02/ $3.02/3.003.00 $3.22/ $3.22/$3.25$3.25 $3.00/$3.00/3.003.00 $3.54/ $3.54/3.00 3.00 $3.18/$3.18/3.153.15

+ .20+ .20 - .02- .02 + .03 + .03 -- -- - .54 - .54 - .03 - .03

Live (Delivered) Live (Delivered) $4.34/ $4.34/4.204.20 $3.42/ $3.42/3.403.40 $3.50/ $3.50/$3.60$3.60 $3.40/$3.40/3.403.40 $4.20/ $4.20/3.51 3.51 $3.69/$3.69/3.323.32

- .14- .14 - .02 - .02 + .10 + .10 -- -- - .69 - .69 - .37 - .37

20062006 Price increase between 2006 and 2007Price increase between 2006 and 200720072007 Price decrease between 2008 and 2007Price decrease between 2008 and 2007


Price-Volume Relationship for FarmedPrice-Volume Relationship for FarmedHybrid Striped Bass During 1984-2007Hybrid Striped Bass During 1984-2007

FreshFreshSales Sales PricePrice

FOB FarmFOB Farm($/lb)($/lb)

AnnualAnnualVolumeVolume(lb)(lb)


2,000,0002,000,000

4,000,0004,000,000

6,000,0006,000,000

8,000,0008,000,000

10,000,00010,000,000

12,000,00012,000,000

14,000,00014,000,000

$2.00$2.00

$2.50$2.50

$3.00$3.00

$3.50$3.50

$4.00$4.00

$4.50$4.50

$5.00$5.00

'84'84 '85'85 '86'86 '87'87 '88'88 '89'89 '90'90 '91'91 '92'92 '93'93 '94'94 '95'95 '96'96 '97'97 '98'98 '99'99 ’ ’0000 ’ ’0101 ’ ’0202 ’ ’0303 ’ ’0404 ’ ’0505 ’ ’0606 ’ ’0707 ’’0088

Annual Production (lb)Annual Production (lb)

SalesSalesPricePrice($/lb)($/lb)

Price-Volume Relationship for FarmedPrice-Volume Relationship for FarmedHybrid Striped Bass During 1984-2008Hybrid Striped Bass During 1984-2008

2,000,0002,000,000 4,000,0004,000,000 6,000,0006,000,000 8,000,0008,000,000 10,000,00010,000,000$2.00$2.00

$2.50$2.50

$3.00$3.00

$3.50$3.50

$4.00$4.00

$4.50$4.50

$5.00$5.00

12,000,00012,000,000


14,000,00014,000,000

U. S. Production of Hybrid Striped U. S. Production of Hybrid Striped BassBass

During 2007 and Projections for During 2007 and Projections for 20082008

AnnualAnnualProductionProduction

(lb)(lb)

20072007(Actual)(Actual)

20082008(Projected)(Projected)

00

2,000,0002,000,000

4,000,0004,000,000

6,000,0006,000,000

8,000,0008,000,000

10,000,00010,000,000

12,000,00012,000,000

14,000,00014,000,000

New ProductionNew ProductionExisting ProductionExisting Production

11,240,00011,240,000


11,980,011,980,00000

640,000640,000

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Production Costs have risen 7% per year...

while Sales Price rose only 0.2% per year

CHANGES IN THE ECONOMICS OF HYBRID CHANGES IN THE ECONOMICS OF HYBRID STRIPED BASS CULTURE DURING 1996-2005STRIPED BASS CULTURE DURING 1996-2005

CHANGES IN THE ECONOMICS OF HYBRID CHANGES IN THE ECONOMICS OF HYBRID STRIPED BASS CULTURE DURING 1996-2005STRIPED BASS CULTURE DURING 1996-2005

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Production Costs have risen 7% per year...

while Sales Price rose only 0.2% per year

INCREASES IN PRODUCTION COSTS IN INCREASES IN PRODUCTION COSTS IN INTENSIVE TANKS AND OPEN POND HSB FARMINGINTENSIVE TANKS AND OPEN POND HSB FARMING

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Intensive Tanks

Open Ponds

35%

24%

Increases in the Costs of Hybrid Striped Increases in the Costs of Hybrid Striped Bass Culture During 1997-2005Bass Culture During 1997-2005

TANKTANKCULTURECULTURE

PONDPONDCULTURECULTURE

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

ElectricalLabor & Benefits

FeedOxygen

PackagingMaintenance

FingerlingsInsurance

SuppliesDistribution

Chemicals

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Indirect Labor

SuppliesMaintenance

Feed

PackagingDistribution

Electrical

Production LaborInsurance

Chemicals

HYBRID STRIPED BASS FRY AND FINGERLINGS HYBRID STRIPED BASS FRY AND FINGERLINGS PRODUCED BY SEVEN U.S. GROWERS IN 2007PRODUCED BY SEVEN U.S. GROWERS IN 2007

Kent SeaTech CorporationKent SeaTech Corporation

Total Production

Shipped to Domestic Growers

Shipped to Foreign Growers

Fry 125 M 110 M 15 M

Fingerlings 15 M 15 M 0

Cumulative Cost United States Taiwan (1) Israel

Cost-of-Sales 1.80 0.94 1.75

G&A, S&M, R&D 2.20 1.10 1.95

Sales Price

FOB Farm (Boxed, On-Ice) 2.60 1.20 2.40

Delivered to Wholesaler 2.80 1.35 2.90

Food Service & Retail 3.20 1.70 3.50

Supermarket Customer 3.50 2.25 4.55

1. Sales prices for Taiwan are for Imports into the US

Country of Origin

Cost of Production and Market PriceCost of Production and Market Priceof Hybrid Striped Bass During 2005of Hybrid Striped Bass During 2005

Worldwide Production of Hybrid Striped Bass Worldwide Production of Hybrid Striped Bass in 2005in 2005

(million pounds/yr)(million pounds/yr)United States Taiwan Israel Italy Mexico Total

Current No. of Farms 51 200 7 2 2 262

Actual 2005 Production 12.0 3.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 16.8

Production Projection for 2006

12.8 5.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 20.7

Production Projection for 2007

13.4 9.7 2.2 1.0 3.3 29.6

Actual 2005 Imports to

US0.3 0.1 0.4

US Import Projection for 2006

1.2 0.2 1.4

US Import Projection for 2007

4.0 2.0 6.0

Country

IMPORTS OF CULTURED HYBRID STRIPED BASSIMPORTS OF CULTURED HYBRID STRIPED BASSFROM TAIWANFROM TAIWAN

2005 2006 2007

Number of 40,000 lb Sea Containers, Long Beach, CA

13 20 20

Total Pounds of Frozen-Whole 1-2 Pound HSB Imported

520,000 800,000 800,000

Wholesale Delivered Price per Pound CFI, Los Angeles

1.65 1.25 1.50

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSMARKET TRENDSMARKET TRENDS::

Increased Demand for Center-of-the-Plate, High-Quality Fresh FishIncreased Demand for Center-of-the-Plate, High-Quality Fresh FishSteady Increase in Demand for Live Fish and Higher PricingSteady Increase in Demand for Live Fish and Higher PricingPositive Conditions and Opportunity to ExpandPositive Conditions and Opportunity to ExpandCompetition with Wild-Caught Striped BassCompetition with Wild-Caught Striped BassCompetition with Cheaper Live Fish AlternativesCompetition with Cheaper Live Fish AlternativesNeed to Increase Perceived Value of Farm-Raised HSBNeed to Increase Perceived Value of Farm-Raised HSBConcerns about Possible Economic RecessionConcerns about Possible Economic Recession

PRODUCTION CONCERNSPRODUCTION CONCERNS::

Continued Source of High Quality FingerlingsContinued Source of High Quality FingerlingsHigh Cost of Production Inputs (Feed, Electricity, Oxygen, etc.)High Cost of Production Inputs (Feed, Electricity, Oxygen, etc.)Regulatory Issues Affecting Water Use and Discharge (Need for BMP’s)Regulatory Issues Affecting Water Use and Discharge (Need for BMP’s)

Kent SeaTech CorporationKent SeaTech Corporation

twenty-one years of hybrid striped bass culture in the u.s. (1987-2007) by james m. carlberg,...

Documents

total production

regional production

production methods

midatlantic region production

cages0 total404

cages0 total2

total lb404

tanks0 cages0 total3