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    Matsui/Ridenour SHINE, SC 1 of 58Uber Climate Change Brief

    UBER CLIMATE CHANGE BRIEF

    AGRICULTURE........................................................................................................................................5

    A. A2: CO2 Helps Plants......................................................................................................................51. While plants may benefit at first, degrading quality of soil will slow the growth in the future...52. While plants may grow faster, they will lose quality....................................................................5

    B. Diseases/Pests...................................................................................................................................51. Pest and plant disease will spread.................................................................................................52. Warmer temperatures will spread weed strains North..................................................................63. Pests and diseases thrive on warmer temperatures.......................................................................64. Poison Ivy LOVES warmer temperatures....................................................................................65. Climate change increases the damage done by pests and disease................................................76. Climate change stimulates the growth and spread of invasive species........................................7

    C. Precipitation......................................................................................................................................7

    1. Increased precipitation will delay planting, costing farmers billions...........................................72. Increased precipitation will decrease the quality of crops............................................................8

    D. Threshold Reached...........................................................................................................................81. Agriculture is at maximum temperature tolerance........................................................................8

    E. General.............................................................................................................................................81. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture and forestry.....................................................8

    OCEAN....................................................................................................................................................10A. Warming.........................................................................................................................................10

    1. Increased warming produces 'evil twins'....................................................................................102. The ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the Earth's heat, and humans are mostly responsible........................................................................................................................................................10

    B. Acidification....................................................................................................................................111. CO2 emissions acidify the ocean, destroying the basis of the oceanic food chain.....................112. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems...................................................................12

    C. Coral Reefs.....................................................................................................................................121. Climate change kills coral reefs..................................................................................................122. Coral reefs have been dying.......................................................................................................123. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems...................................................................13

    D. General...........................................................................................................................................131. Climate change hurts marine ecosystems through a variety of ways.........................................132. Climate change will impact the marine environment.................................................................14

    PUBLIC HEALTH...................................................................................................................................15

    A. Extinction.......................................................................................................................................151. The debate is over climate change will lead to the extinction of the human race...................15

    B. General............................................................................................................................................151. Coastal climate variations will impact human health.................................................................152. Climate change-related droughts have significant affects on human health..............................163. Rising sea levels would directly and indirectly hurt human health............................................164. Climate change negatively impacts health (directly and indirectly)..........................................175. Climate change will exacerbate global undernourishment.........................................................176. Deteriorating development will spawn disease, and exacerbate urban crowding factors..........17

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    Matsui/Ridenour SHINE, SC 2 of 58Uber Climate Change Brief

    7. Coastal communities will be heavily affected by climate change..............................................18ENERGY.................................................................................................................................................19

    A. Hydropower...................................................................................................................................19

    1. Climate change will negatively affect hydropower generation [Graph].....................................192. Hyrdopower is affected by stream changes................................................................................193. Other warming factors affect hydropower as well.....................................................................19

    B. Fossil Fuels.....................................................................................................................................201. Climate change will reduce electrical efficiency [Graph]..........................................................202. Increased shortages in water will constrain power production...................................................203. Warmer temperatures will reduce power plant efficiency..........................................................21

    C. Biofuels...........................................................................................................................................211. Other renewable energy sources are also affected by climate change........................................21

    D. Demand will Increase.....................................................................................................................211. Warming will increase overall energy demand...........................................................................212. AC energy consumption will increase........................................................................................22

    E. Costs will Increase..........................................................................................................................221. Climate change will increase AC costs [Graph].........................................................................22

    F. Energy is Vulnerable.......................................................................................................................231. Climate change will negatively impact energy systems.............................................................232. Rising sea levels will undermine shoreline energy infrastructures............................................233. Energy facilities are highly vulnerable to climatic events..........................................................244. Climate change impacts the energy grid.....................................................................................24

    TRANSPORTATION...............................................................................................................................25A. Flooding..........................................................................................................................................25

    1. Thousands of miles of transit could be flooded..........................................................................252. 60,000 miles of highway are under threat from storm surge and sea level rise.........................253. Increased precipitation can flood transportation lines................................................................25

    B. Droughts.........................................................................................................................................261. Drought will have wide-ranging effects on transportation.........................................................26

    C. Natural Disasters.............................................................................................................................261. More intense hurricanes will directly affect transportation........................................................26

    SEA LEVELS..........................................................................................................................................28A. Erosion............................................................................................................................................28

    1. Coastal erosion is and has been happening.................................................................................282. Climate change will increase erosion.........................................................................................283. Coastal erosion means bigger, and more damaging, waves.......................................................29

    B. Water Quality..................................................................................................................................291. As sea levels rise, freshwater quality will decline......................................................................292. Rising sea levels will impact freshwater supplies, and other infrastructures.............................30

    C. General............................................................................................................................................301. Rising sea levels will directly impact marine health, and the economies of coastal communities........................................................................................................................................................30

    WILDLIFE/BIODIVERSITY..................................................................................................................31A. Extinction.......................................................................................................................................31

    1. Climate change will destroy biodiversity...................................................................................312. Climate change causes more harm to biodiversity than good....................................................31

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    Matsui/Ridenour SHINE, SC 3 of 58Uber Climate Change Brief

    3. Climate Change guts Biodiversity..............................................................................................314. Climate change can cause extinction of entire species...............................................................32

    B. Populations.....................................................................................................................................33

    1. Climate Change reduces wildlife populations [Graph]..............................................................332. Grassland affects of climate change will lead to decreasing wildlife populations.....................333. Warming will both increase and decrease populations of arctic species....................................334. Warmer temperatures will reduce cattle production, and kill the animals..................................34

    C. Disease............................................................................................................................................341. Climate change will increase plant and animal susceptibility to disease...................................342. Cattle-killing pathogens will thrive in a warmer environment...................................................353. Warmer climates spread pathogens.............................................................................................354. Climate change has been spreading disease...............................................................................36

    WEATHER EVENTS..............................................................................................................................37A. Heat Waves.....................................................................................................................................37

    1. Increased heat waves from climate change will increase mortality rates...................................372. Heat related deaths will outweigh lives saved by milder winters...............................................373. Heat waves will kill....................................................................................................................384. Climate change increases deadly heat waves.............................................................................385. Climate change will increase the frequency, severity, and duration of heat waves....................386. Children are especially vulnerable to heat waves.......................................................................397. The poor are vulnerable to climate change.................................................................................398. The elderly are very vulnerable to heat waves...........................................................................399. Diabetes will exacerbate the effects of climate change..............................................................39

    B. Flooding..........................................................................................................................................401. Climate change increases droughts and floods...........................................................................402. Flood related costs will increase.................................................................................................403. Flooding spreads disease............................................................................................................41

    C. Droughts.........................................................................................................................................411. Climate change increases droughts and floods...........................................................................412. Drought conditions will increase damage by insects..................................................................41

    D. Extreme Weather/Natural Disasters................................................................................................421. Climate change increases mortality from extreme weather events............................................422. Extreme weather affects directly, and indirectly........................................................................433. Warming will increase the destructive power of natural disasters..............................................434. Climate change will disrupt society through natural disasters and all their repercussions........435. Climate change will disrupt infrastructure and communities.....................................................44

    E. Fire..................................................................................................................................................441. Climate change will increase fire risks.......................................................................................44

    ECONOMY.............................................................................................................................................45A. General Costs..................................................................................................................................45

    1. Climate change directly and indirectly affects economies.........................................................452. Climate change will ruin women's livelihoods...........................................................................453. Climate change laundry list on the effects on the economy.......................................................46

    B. Tangible Costs.................................................................................................................................471. Climate change will decrease property values [Graph]..............................................................472. Climate Change's total economic cost to Washington

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    Matsui/Ridenour SHINE, SC 4 of 58Uber Climate Change Brief

    [Note: Read the bolded parts].........................................................................................................473. Life lost due to climate change will cost $6-$88 billion............................................................48

    C. Overview.........................................................................................................................................49

    1. The costs will outweigh the benefits..........................................................................................49AIR POLLUTION...................................................................................................................................501. Climate change causes ozone depletion.....................................................................................502. Climate change exacerbates air pollution...................................................................................503. Climate change will lead to lower air quality.............................................................................51

    WATER....................................................................................................................................................52A. Wetlands.........................................................................................................................................52

    1. Climate variability will negatively impact wetlands..................................................................52B. Rainfall...........................................................................................................................................52

    1. Warming will increase the amount of precipitation, but lower the overall moisture content.....52C. Pollution..........................................................................................................................................53

    1. Increased water temperatures will lower water quality..............................................................532. As rainfall increases (via Climate Change), so will pesticide and pollutant runoff...................533. Warmer temperatures increase the number of water- and food-borne diseases..........................544. Warming will decrease respiratory and purification water systems...........................................545. Water pollution and its impacts are expected to increase...........................................................55

    D. General...........................................................................................................................................551. Water supply costs will outweigh the benefits............................................................................552. Water systems are already under stress; Climate change will exacerbate..................................55

    MISCELLANEOUS................................................................................................................................571. Warming is happening, and a little increase causes huge impacts..............................................572. We have reached the tipping point..............................................................................................573. Preventive action will benefit us, whether or not the climate changes.......................................58

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    products and services is enormous.

    2. Warmer temperatures will spread weed strains North

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on

    changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    Weeds benefit more than cash crops from higher temperatures and carbon dioxide levels.193 Oneconcern with continued warming is the northward expansion of invasive weeds. Southern farmers currently losemore of their crops to weeds than do northern farmers. For example, southern farmers lose 64 percent of the soybean crop toweeds, while northern farmers lose 22 percent.239 Some extremely aggressive weeds plaguing theSouth (such as kudzu) have historically been confined to areas where winter temperatures do not dropbelow specific thresholds. As temperatures continue to rise, these weeds will expand their ranges

    northward into important agricultural areas.240 Kudzu currently has invaded 2.5 million acres of theSoutheast and is a carrier of the fungal disease soybean rust, which represents a major and expandingthreat to U.S. soybean production.234

    Controlling weeds currently costs the United States more than $11 billion a year, with the majorityspent on herbicides;241 so both herbicide use and costs are likely to increase as temperatures andcarbon dioxide levels rise. At the same time, the most widely used herbicide in the United States,glyphosate (RoundUp), loses its efficacy on weeds grown at carbon dioxide levels that are projectedto occur in the coming decades (see photos below). Higher concentrations of the chemical and more frequentspraying thus will be needed, increasing economic and environmental costs associated with chemicaluse.233

    3. Pests and diseases thrive on warmer temperatures

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    Many insect pests and crop diseases thrive due to warming, increasing losses and necessitating greater pesticide use. Warming aids insects and diseases in

    several ways. Rising temperatures allow both insects and pathogens to expand their ranges northward. Inaddition, rapidly rising winter temperatures allow more insects to survive over the winter, whereas cold wintersonce controlled their populations. Some of these insects, in addition to directly that harm crops. Crop diseases in general are likely to

    increase as earlier springs and warmer winters allow proliferation and higher survival rates of diseasepathogens and parasites.193,234 The longer growing season will allow some insects to produce moregenerations in a single season, greatly increasing their populations. Finally, plants grown in highercarbon dioxide conditions tend to be less nutritious, so insects must eat more to meet their proteinrequirements, causing greater destruction to crops.193

    4. Poison IvyLOVESwarmer temperatures

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program

    http://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-act
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    which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    A particularly unpleasant example of how carbon dioxide tends to favor undesirable plants is found in the response of poison ivy to rising carbon dioxideconcentrations. Poison ivy thrives in air with extra carbon dioxide in it, growing bigger and producing a more toxic form of the oil, urushiol, which causespainful skin reactions in 80 percent of people. Contact with poison ivy is one of the most widely reported ailments at poison centers in the United States,causing more than 350,000 cases of contact dermatitis each year. The growth stimulation of poison ivy due to increasing carbon dioxide concentrationexceeds that of most other woody species. Given continued increases in carbon dioxide emissions, poison ivy is expected to become more abundant andmore toxic in the future, with implications for forests and human health.234

    5. Climate change increases the damage done by pests and disease

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    Insect pests are economically important stresses on forest ecosystems in the United States. Coupledwith pathogens, they cost $1.5 billion in damage per year. Forest insect pests are sensitive to climaticvariations in many stages of their lives. Changes in climate have contributed significantly to severalmajor insect pest outbreaks in the United States and Canada over the past several decades. The mountain pine

    beetle has infested lodgepole pine in British Columbia. Over 33 million acres of forest have been affected, by far the largest suchoutbreak in recorded history. Another 1.5 million acres have been infested by pine beetle in Colorado. Sprucebeetle has affected more than 2.5 million acres in Alaska (seeAlaska region) and western Canada. Thecombination of drought and high temperatures also has led to serious insect infestations and death ofpion pine in the Southwest, and to various insect pest attacks throughout the forests of the easternUnited States.243

    6. Climate change stimulates the growth and spread of invasive species

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    The increasing carbon dioxide concentration stimulates the growth of most plant species, and some invasive plants respond with greater growth rates thannative plants. Beyond this, invasive plants appear to better tolerate a wider range of environmental conditions and may be more successful in a warmingworld because they can migrate and establish themselves in new sites more rapidly than native plants.70 They are also not usually dependent on external

    pollinators or seed dispersers to reproduce. For all of these reasons, invasive plant species present a growing problem that is extremely difficult to controlonce unleashed.70

    C. Precipitation

    1. Increased precipitation will delay planting, costing farmers billions

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector
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    One of the most pronounced effects of climate change is the increase in heavy downpours. Precipitationhas become less frequent but more intense, and this pattern is projected to continue across the UnitedStates.112 One consequence of excessive rainfall is delayed spring planting, which jeopardizes profits

    for farmers paid a premium for early season production of high-value crops such as melon, sweet corn,and tomatoes. Field flooding during the growing season causes crop losses due to low oxygen levels inthe soil, increased susceptibility to root diseases, and increased soil compaction due to the use of heavyfarm equipment on wet soils. In spring 2008, heavy rains caused the Mississippi River to rise to about 7feet above flood stage, inundating hundreds of thousands of acres of cropland. The flood hit just asfarmers were preparing to harvest wheat and plant corn, soybeans, and cotton. Preliminary estimates ofagricultural losses are around $8 billion.213 Some farmers were put out of business and others will berecovering for years to come. The flooding caused severe erosion in some areas and also caused anincrease in runoff and leaching of agricultural chemicals into surface water and groundwater.233

    2. Increased precipitation will decrease the quality of crops

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    Another impact of heavy downpours is that wet conditions at harvest time result in reduced quality of many crops.Storms with heavy rainfall often are accompanied by wind gusts, and both strong winds and rain canflatten crops, causing significant damage. Vegetable and fruit crops are sensitive to even short-term,minor stresses, and as such are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes.193 More rainfallconcentrated into heavy downpours also increases the likelihood of water deficiencies at other timesbecause of reductions in rainfall frequency.

    D. Threshold Reached

    1. Agriculture is at maximum temperature tolerance

    Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, NatureConservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office inNairobi; founding

    director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) How Will Global Warming Affect My World A Simplified Guide to

    the IPCCs 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'November 2003 UNITED NATIONS

    ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

    In the tropics, many crops are already near their maximum temperature tolerance, and farmers are often unable to irrigate because water supplies areinadequate. Where dryland agriculture relies solely on rain as in sub-Saharan Africa yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in

    temperature. More extremes and a shift in precipitation zones could worsen food security in Africa.

    E. General

    1. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture and forestry

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,established by theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) to provide the world with a clear

    scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. Itreviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climatechange. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute

    http://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nationshttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nationshttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html
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    to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of currentinformation. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and itis open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the

    IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCCBureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a unique

    opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge theauthority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)

    Fourth Assessment Report 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

    Temperature increases can shorten growing cycles, e.g., those of cotton and mango on the north coastof Peru during the El Nio (seeChapter 13,Section 13.2.2). More frequent extreme climate events during specificcrop development stages, together with higher rainfall intensity and longer dry spells, may impactnegatively on crop yields (Olesen et al., 2006). Cyclone landfalls causing floods and destruction have negativeimpacts on coastal areas, e.g., on coconuts in India (seeChapter 5,Section 5.4.4), or on sugar cane and bananasin Queensland (Cyclone Larry in March 2006). Rising sea level has negative impacts on coastal agriculture. Detailedmodelling of inundation implies significant changes to the number of rice crops possible in the Mekong delta under 20-40 cm of relative sea-level rise(Wassmann et al., 2004). Rising sea level potentially threatens inundation and soil salinisation of palm oil and coconuts in Benin and Cte dIvoire (seeChapter 9,Section 9.4.6) and mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts in Kenya (Republic of Kenya, 2002).

    Coastal forestry is little studied, but forests are easily affected by climatic perturbations, and severe storms cancause extensive losses, e.g., Hurricane Katrina. Plantation forests (mainly P. radiata) on the east coast ofNorth Island, New Zealand, are likely to experience growth reductions under projected rainfalldecreases (Ministry for the Environment, 2001). Increasing salinity and greater frequency of flooding due to sea-level rise reduces the ability of trees to generate, including mangroves which will also experience otherchanges (Section 6.4.1.4) (IUCN, 2003).

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    OCEAN

    A. Warming

    1. Increased warming produces 'evil twins'

    Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, InternationalStudies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of

    International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University ofWashington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public

    Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The EarthSystem, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on ForeignRelations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of ClimateVariability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and

    Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-DohertyEarth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement ofScience; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) On the Increasing

    Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple StressesAugust 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND

    RESOURCES(Annual Reviews)

    Increasing anthropogenic emissions to, and concentration of CO2 in, the atmosphere spawns eviltwins: (a) the warming of the terrestrial surface and the ocean surface and depths and ( b) increasingacidification of the ocean as a result of the dissolution of CO2 in seawater, which creates carbonic acidin its initial reaction. These two stressors combine in their impacts on marine ecosystems. This section

    focuses first on changing thermal structure and second on increasing acidification before consideringthe combined effects of the two stressors.

    2. The ocean has absorbed more than 80% of the Earth's heat, and humans are mostly

    responsible

    Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, InternationalStudies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of

    International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University ofWashington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & Public

    Affairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The EarthSystem, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign

    Relations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of ClimateVariability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and

    Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-DohertyEarth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement ofScience; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) On the Increasing

    Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple StressesAugust 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND

    RESOURCES(Annual Reviews)

    The work by Barnett et al. (4, 6) builds on the work of Levitus et al. (3) in seeking to detect an

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    anthropogenic signal in this increase of heat, particularly in the upper 3000 m of the world ocean. Theirfive model realizations closely correspond to the observed heat content change and reproduce theinterbasin variability. The authors, furthermore, demonstrate conclusively that the changes in deep-

    ocean heat content are driven solely by deep convective changes in the Atlantic, both North and South.The data provided by Levitus et al. (5) have allowed Barnett et al. (6) to calculate that the oceans havesequestered 84% of Earth's heat generated since the 1950s and to conclude that human influences arelargely responsible.

    B. Acidification

    1. CO2 emissions acidify the ocean, destroying the basis of the oceanic food chain

    Edward L Miles(PhD, International Relations/Comparative Politics, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965;Instructor, International Relations, Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1965-66; Assistant Professor, InternationalStudies,Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver, 1966-70; Associate Professor, International Studies, Graduate School of

    International Studies, University of Denver, 1970-74; Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, Institute for Marine Studies, University ofWashington; Director, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, 1982-93; Virginia and Prentice Bloedel Professor, Marine Studies & PublicAffairs, University of Washington; Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Co-Director, Center for Science in The EarthSystem, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington; Member, Advisory Panel, National Sea Grant Program,

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1970-72; International Affairs Fellowship, Council on ForeignRelations, 1972-73; Chairman, Ocean Policy Committee, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council, 1974-79; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, 1976-80; Principal Investigator,North Pacific Project, Institute for Marine Studies, University of Washington, supported by the National Science Foundation, 1980-83; Chairman,Advisory Committee for International Programs, National Science Foundation, 1990-92; Principal Investigator Project on the Impacts of ClimateVariability, Climate Change, and Response Strategies in the Pacific Northwest, supported by the Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and

    Atmospheric Administration; Member, Climate and Global Change Advisory Panel, Office of Global Programs, National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, 1996-2003; Member, Advisory Committee on Applications, International Research Institute for Climate Predictions, Lamont-DohertyEarth Observatory, Columbia University, 1996-2004; Member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement ofScience; Member, Board of Directors, Union of Concerned Scientists; Fellow, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 2009) On the Increasing

    Vulnerability of the World Ocean to Multiple StressesAugust 2009 ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND

    RESOURCES(Annual Reviews)

    How is acidification of the world ocean accomplished? In a healthy ocean, the surface waters are alkaline, as measured bypH values in a range of 8.18.3 on a log scale. These pH levels reflect a surface ocean, which is saturated bycarbonate and bicarbonate ions. The latter allow living organisms, requiring CaCO 3 to manufacturetheir shells and skeletons, to exist and to thrive. For example, aragonite is a biogenic bicarbonate ion derived from corals and

    pterapods, and calcite is a biogenic carbonate ion derived from coccolithofores and foraminifera. Pterapods are zooplankton, which are veryimportant to the early life stages of certain fish species, whereas coccolithofores and foraminfera are phytoplankton, which arefood sources for a variety of zooplankton. Because these plankton are important food sources at the bottom of theoceanic food chain, any stresses that produce declines in their populations will have far-reaching effectsat higher levels of the food chain. Both biogenic ions neutralize anthropogenic CO2 and thereby contribute to total alkalinity, but only upto certain saturation levels of CO2. By contrast, supersaturation of anthropogenic CO 2 at the ocean surface expands the zone

    of biogenic undersaturation of CaCO3 (from 200400 m especially), which reduces alkalinity. This shift in ocean chemistry islethal to all calcareous life forms. Surface saturation of anthropogenic CO2 also affects the pCO2 in the surface ocean by adjusting theocean/atm CO2 flux such that increasing pCO2 increases the uptake of CO2 by the surface ocean, thereby decreasing pH. In the world ocean,the polar oceans are most vulnerable because the solubility of carbon increases as temperature decreases. Because theAntarctic is colder than the Arctic Ocean, it is the most vulnerable to increasing acidification. Thechanges that are now observed are very large, and the rate of CO 2 uptake is faster than has beenexperienced for at least the last 650,000 years. The significance of these changes has been graphically stated byBrewer in his International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) lecture (46):

    My message is simple; there are massive, and until very recently unrecognized, changes of geologic

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    scale taking place in the ocean as we have entered the anthropocene era, and these may very well haveprofound effects on ocean ecosystems world wideocean chemistry is being altered on a scale not seen formillions of years, and there are very basic questions on the impact on ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles

    to which we do not yet have answers.

    2. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    But rising temperature is not the only stress coral reefs face. As the carbon dioxide concentration in theair increases, more carbon dioxide is absorbed into the worlds oceans, leading to their acidification.

    This makes less calcium carbonate available for corals and other sea life to build their skeletons andshells.258 If carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise and the resulting acidification proceeds,eventually, corals and other ocean life that rely on calcium carbonate will not be able to build theseskeletons and shells at all. The implications of such extreme changes in ocean ecosystems are not clear, but there is now evidence that in someocean areas, such as along the Northwest coast, acidification is already occurring70,259 (see Coasts region for more discussion of ocean acidification).

    C. Coral Reefs

    1. Climate change kills coral reefs

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    Coral reefs are very diverse ecosystems that support many other species by providing food and habitat.In addition to their ecological value, coral reefs provide billions of dollars in services includingtourism, fish breeding habitat, and protection of coastlines. Corals face a host of challenges associated with human activitiessuch as poorly regulated tourism, destructive fishing, and pollution, in addition to climate change-related stresses.70

    Corals are marine animals that host symbiotic algae which help nourish the animals and give the corals their color. When corals are stressedby increases in water temperatures or ultraviolet light, they lose their algae and turn white, a processcalled coral bleaching. If the stress persists, the corals die. Intensities and frequencies of bleaching

    events, clearly driven by warming in surface water, have increased substantially over the past 30 years,leading to the death or severe damage of about one third of the worlds corals.70

    2. Coral reefs have been dying

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    http://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector
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    The United States has extensive coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans. In 2005, the Caribbean basinexperienced unprecedented water temperatures that resulted in dramatic coral bleaching with some sites

    in the U.S. Virgin Islands seeing 90 percent of the coral bleached. Some corals began to recover whenwater temperatures decreased, but later that year disease appeared, striking the previously bleached andweakened coral. To date, 50 percent of the corals in Virgin Islands National Park have died from thebleaching and disease events. In the Florida Keys, summer bleaching in 2005 was also followed bydisease in September.70

    3. Acidification kills coral reefs and their ecosystems

    United States Global Change Research Program(The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research onchanges in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated byCongress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research programwhich will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.")

    Climate Change Impacts By Sector June 16, 2009 GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAMEhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sector

    But rising temperature is not the only stress coral reefs face. As the carbon dioxide concentration in theair increases, more carbon dioxide is absorbed into the worlds oceans, leading to their acidification.This makes less calcium carbonate available for corals and other sea life to build their skeletons andshells.258 If carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise and the resulting acidification proceeds,eventually, corals and other ocean life that rely on calcium carbonate will not be able to build theseskeletons and shells at all. The implications of such extreme changes in ocean ecosystems are not clear, but there is now evidence that in someocean areas, such as along the Northwest coast, acidification is already occurring70,259 (see Coasts region for more discussion of ocean acidification).

    D. General

    1. Climate change hurts marine ecosystems through a variety of ways

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,established by theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) to provide the world with a clear

    scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. Itreviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climatechange. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contributeto the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of currentinformation. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and itis open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the

    IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCCBureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a uniqueopportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge theauthority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)

    Fourth Assessment Report 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

    Climate change can impact marine ecosystems through ocean warming (Wang et al., 2004b),by increasingthermal stratification and reducing upwelling (Cox et al., 2000; Sarmiento et al., 2004a), sea level rise (IPCC, 2001), andthrough increases in wave height and frequency (Monahan et al., 2000; Wang et al., 2004b), loss of sea ice (Sarmiento et al.,2004b; Meehl et al., 2007; Christensen et al., 2007), increased risk of diseases in marine biota (Harvell et al., 2002) anddecreases in the pH and carbonate ion concentration of the surface oceans (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003; Feely et al.,2004; Sabine et al., 2004; Raven et al., 2005).

    http://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.htmlhttp://www.globalchange.gov/about/program-structure/global-change-research-acthttp://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/climate-change-impacts-by-sectorhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html
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    2. Climate change will impact the marine environment

    Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, NatureConservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office inNairobi; founding

    director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) How Will Global Warming Affect My World A Simplified Guide to

    the IPCCs 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'November 2003 UNITED NATIONS

    ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

    Climate change may affect the marine environment in ways that would worsen the risk of biotoxinpoisoning from consuming fish and shellfish. Biotoxins associated with warmer waters, such asciguatera in the tropics, could extend their range to higher latitudes. Warmer seas will also encouragemore toxic algal blooms, which can be linked to human poisoning. Declining water quantity andquality would cause more cases of diarrhea.

    http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nationshttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nationshttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobihttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdfhttp://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf
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    PUBLIC HEALTH

    A. Extinction

    1. The debate is over climate change will lead to the extinction of the human race

    Bill Henderson(Science and Innovation Study Productivity Commission; Environmental Scientist &Activist) Runaway Global Warming Denial August 2006 COUNTER CURRENTShttp://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htm

    The scientific debate about human induced global warming is over but policy makers - let alone the happilyshopping general public - still seem to not understand the scope of the impending tragedy. Global warming isn'tjust warmer temperatures, heat waves, melting ice and threatened polar bears. Scientific understanding

    increasingly points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction. If impossibly Draconiansecurity measures are not immediately put in place to keep further emissions of greenhouse gases out ofthe atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions, the end of civilization as we know it and in allprobability the end of man's several million year old existence, along with the extinction of most flora andfauna beloved to man in the world we share.

    B. General

    1. Coastal climate variations will impact human health

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,established by theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) to provide the world with a clear

    scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It

    reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climatechange. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contributeto the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of currentinformation. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and itis open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the

    IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCCBureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a uniqueopportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge theauthority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.)

    Fourth Assessment Report 2007 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

    One-quarter of the worlds population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of thecoastline, with increases likely over the coming decades (Small and Nicholls, 2003). Climate change could affect

    coastal areas through an accelerated rise in sea level; a further rise in sea-surface temperatures; anintensification of tropical cyclones; changes in wave and storm surge characteristics; alteredprecipitation/runoff; and ocean acidification (seeChapter 6). These changes could affect human healththrough coastal flooding and damaged coastal infrastructure; saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwaterresources; damage to coastal ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal fisheries; population displacement;changes in the range and prevalence of climate-sensitive health outcomes; amongst others. Although someSmall Island States and other low-lying areas are at particular risk, there are few projections of the health impact of climate variability and change.

    Climate-sensitive health outcomes of concern in Small Island States include malaria, dengue,diarrhoeal diseases, heat stress, skin diseases, acute respiratory infections and asthma (WHO, 2004a).

    http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htmhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.htmlhttp://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htmhttp://www.unep.org/http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.htmlhttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.html
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    2. Climate change-related droughts have significant affects on human health

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,established by theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) to provide the world with a clear

    scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It

    reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climatechange. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contributeto the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of currentinformation. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and itis open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the

    IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCCBureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a uniqueopportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the

    authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) ThirdAssessment Report 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

    The health impacts of drought on populations occur primarily via impacts on food production. Famineoften occurs when a preexisting situation of malnutrition worsens. The health consequences of drought

    include diseases resulting from malnutrition (McMichael et al., 1996b). In times of shortage, water is used forcooking rather than hygiene. In particular, this increases the risk of diarrheal diseases (as a result of fecalcontamination) and water-washed diseases (e.g., trachoma, scabies). Outbreaks of malaria can occur during droughtsas a result of changes in vector breeding sites (Bouma and van der Kaay, 1996). Malnutrition also increasessusceptibility to infection.

    In addition to adverse environmental conditions, political, environmental, or economic crises cantrigger a collapse in food marketing systems. These factors may have a cumulative or synergistic effect.For example, a breakdown in the reserve food supply system resulting from the sale of grain or livestockreserves might be exacerbated by conflict and breakdown in law and order. The major food emergencyin Sudan during 1998 illustrates the interrelationship between climatic triggers of famine and conflict.

    Land mines made portions of major roads in southern Sudan impassable and contributed to poor accessfor relief supplies. By July 1998, the World Food Programme's air cargo capacity had increased to more than 10,000 t to overcome the transportdifficulties. These air cargoes were supplemented by barge convoys and road repair projects (WFP, 1999). Vulnerability to drought and food shortages can

    be greatly reduced through the use of seasonal forecasts as part of an early warning system (seeSection 9.11.1).

    3. Rising sea levels would directly and indirectly hurt human health

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the leading body for the assessment of climate change,established by theUnited Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) to provide the world with a clear

    scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. Itreviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climatechange. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contributeto the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of currentinformation. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and itis open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the

    IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC workprogramme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCCBureau and Chairperson are also elected in the plenary sessions. Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC embodies a uniqueopportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the

    authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.) ThirdAssessment Report 2001 INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGEhttp://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/

    The potential impacts of sea-level rise on the health and well-being of coastal populations are animportant consideration (Klein and Nicholls, 1999). Estimates of the potential number of people at risk fromsea-level rise are addressed elsewhere in TAR WGI and this volume. For example, a 0.5-m rise in sea

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    level along the Nile delta would flood 32% of urban areas, resulting in a significant loss of shelter andforced migration (El-Raey et al., 1999; seeChapter 6). In some locations, sea-level rise could disrupt stormwaterdrainage and sewage disposal and result in salinization of freshwater supplies. It can affect health

    indirectly by reducing food productionfor example, by reducing rice production in low-lying coastalrice paddies. Sea-level rise also could affect the distribution of vector-borne diseasesfor example,some of the coastal wetlands of the United States may be flooded, thereby destroying the habitat of theEEE virus. Populations with limited economic, technical, and social resources have increasedvulnerability to various infectious, psychological, and other adverse health consequences.

    4. Climate change negatively impacts health (directly and indirectly)

    Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, NatureConservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office inNairobi;founding

    director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) How Will Global Warming Affect My World A Simplified Guide to

    the IPCCs 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'November 2003 UNITED NATIONS

    ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

    New patterns of heat waves and cold snaps, floods and droughts, and local pollution and allergenswould affect health directly. Indirect effects will result from changes to ecological and social systems.Such impacts will include changes in infectious diseases, freshwater supplies, local food production,population movements and economic activities.

    5. Climate change will exacerbate global undernourishment

    Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, NatureConservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office inNairobi;founding

    director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) How Will Global Warming Affect My World A Simplified Guide tothe IPCCs 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'November 2003 UNITED NATIONS

    ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

    With some 790 million people currently undernourished, changes in food supply resulting from climatechange could affect the nutrition and health of the poor in some regions. Isolated areas with poor accessto markets will be particularly vulnerable to local problems with the food supply.

    Undernourishment is a fundamental cause of stunted physical and intellectual development in children,low productivity in adults and increased susceptibility to infectious diseases. Climate change wouldexacerbate these conditions in the developing world, particularly in the tropics.

    6. Deteriorating development will spawn disease, and exacerbate urban crowding factors

    Prepared by Klaus Topfer(Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme; German Federal Minister for the Environment, NatureConservation and Nuclear Safety; Under Secretary General of the United Nations; General director of the United Nations office inNairobi; founding

    director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies) How Will Global Warming Affect My World A Simplified Guide to

    the IPCCs 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability'November 2003 UNITED NATIONS

    ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME http://www.unep.org/dec/docs/ipcc_wgii_guide-E.pdf

    Building, roads, railways, ports and industrial development particularly when based on coasts,riverbanks, hills, or permafrost may suffer more damage. They will more often require repairs,reconstruction or relocation. The social fabric and infrastructure of many cities may face greater stressas people migrate away from vulnerable areas towards population centers. As shantytowns further

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