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UBS Investment Research

Europe Contextual Diary

The Week Ahead

Danone (Neutral, PT €53) – ‘Back to basics’ for stabilisation of volumes (Tuesday, FY Results) We anticipate FY12 sales of €20.65bn (+7%) reflectingorganic growth of 5.2%. We anticipate a €0.55bn increase in net debt to €3.56bn.We anticipate the ‘back to basics’ strategy being employed in European Dairy willlead to a stabilisation of volumes in H2 although we are concerned about whether itis the right strategy longer term.

Lafarge (Buy, PT €51) – Profitability still driven by cost reduction efforts (Wednesday, Q4 Results) We expect Q412 EBITDA of €807m (+1% y/y) which isequivalent to a 6.9% growth rate y/y adjusted for significantly lower CO2 profits expected in Q4. The underlying growth in profitability is still predominantly drivenby cost reduction efforts (€110m expected in Q4). We think our FY 13 forecastscould be conservative if Lafarge manages to fully offset cost inflation.

Air France-KLM (Buy, PT €9.8) – Focus on outlook and restructuring (Friday, FY Results) We are towards the top end of consensus and expect sales tocome in at €25,748m, EBIT of -€153m and Net income of -€713m. The market is likely to focus on outlook and progress with the restructuring program “Transformation 15”, including the number of acceptances of the voluntaryretrenchment program and cost savings achieved.

Global Equity Research

Europe Including UK

Equity Strategy

Sector Comment

15 February 2013

www.ubs.com/investmentresearch

Themis ThemistocleousProduct Manager

[email protected]+44-20-7568 1955

Paul SchneiderProduct Manager


Christopher ClarkeProduct Manager


Yi Peng CheahProduct Manager


This report has been prepared by UBS Limited ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 74. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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Europe Contextual Diary 15 February 2013

UBS 2

Contents page — Weeks of 18 - 22 February (by market cap)..........................................................3 — Weeks of 18 - 22 February (alphabetical).............................................................6 — Sunday, 17 February 2013...................................................................................9 — Monday, 18 February 2013 ................................................................................10 — Tuesday, 19 February 2013 ...............................................................................11 — Wednesday, 20 February 2013 ..........................................................................19 — Thursday, 21 February 2013 ..............................................................................31 — Friday, 22 February 2013 ...................................................................................43 — U.S. / Week of 18 - 22 February.........................................................................47 — Weeks of 25 February - 1 March (by market cap)...............................................51 — Weeks of 25 February - 1 March (alphabetical) ..................................................55 — Key Global Forecasts.........................................................................................59 — Forthcoming Bond Supply Calendar...................................................................61 — Last trade dates .................................................................................................61 — Option expiry dates ............................................................................................61 — Macroeconomic Events ......................................................................................62 — Political and Central Bank Events.......................................................................66 — UBS Corporate Roadshows ...............................................................................68 — UBS Conferences, Seminars, Sector trips/Meetings for fortnight ahead .............70 — Upcoming UBS Conferences and Seminars.......................................................71 — Recent Initiations of Coverage ...........................................................................72

* Alpha Preferences, UBS’ ‘most’ and ‘least’ preferred selections within each major sector.

We would like to thank Amrit Panigrahy, employee of Cognizant Group, for his assistance in

preparing this research report.

Cognizant staff provide research support services to UBS.


UBS 3

Weeks of 18 - 22 February (by market cap) Corporate events – by market cap (descending) Sunday, 17 February 2013

Company Event Sector

None

Main Economic Events: Cyprus Presidential Elections Monday, 18 February 2013


Carlsberg A/S Q4 Results Beverage

TNT Express NV Q4 Results Industrial Transportation

Market Holidays: Canada, US

Tuesday, 19 February 2013


EU Parliament vote on Carbon EU Parliament vote on Carbon Utilities

Danone FY Results Food

Gas Natural Fenosa Q4 Results Gas Utilities

Schindler FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Abertis FY Results Industrial Transportation

Deutsche Boerse FY Results Diversified Financial

Ferrovial FY Results Industrial Transportation

InterContinental Hotels Group FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

MTU Aero Engines Holding AG FY Results Aerospace

Drax Group FY Results Electric Utilities

CFAO SA Q4 Results Retail

Havas FY Sales Advertising

TF1 FY Results Broadcasting

AZ Electronic Materials FY Results Chemicals

Metropole TV FY Results Broadcasting

Phoenix Group Holdings EGM Insurance

Nobel Biocare FY Results Medical Products


UBS 4

Wednesday, 20 February 2013 Company Event Sector

BHP Billiton Plc H1 Results Mining & Metals

France Telecom Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Saint Gobain FY Results Building Materials

Lafarge Q4 Results Building Materials

Akzo Nobel Q4 Results Chemicals

DSM Q4 Results Chemicals

Accor FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Kabel Deutschland Q3 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Swedish Match FY Results Tobacco

RSA Insurance Group FY Results Insurance

Vallourec FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Wolters Kluwer FY Results Publishing

Enagas FY Results Energy

Travis Perkins FY Results Retail

Icade SA FY Results Real Estate

DSV Q4 Results Industrial Transportation

Midcap Key Call: Spectris FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

Capgemini Q4 Results Technology Services

Straumann Dentsply Q4 Results Medical Products

Nobel Biocare Dentsply Q4 Results Medical Products

Market Holidays: Argentina

Main Economic Events: BoE Minutes; UK Labour Data; Germany CPI; France CPI


UBS 5

Thursday, 21 February 2013 Company Event Sector

Schneider Electric FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

Swiss Re FY Results Insurance

Tenaris Q4 Results Energy

Safran SA FY Results Aerospace

BAE SYSTEMS FY Results Aerospace

OMV Q4 Results Energy

Technip FY Results Energy

Casino FY Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Kingfisher Q4 Sales Retail

Atos Q4 Results Technology Services

easyJet AGM Airlines

Mondi FY Results Forest Products & Paper

Dia FY Results Food

Informa FY Results Publishing

Ashmore Group H1 Results Diversified Financial

Ladbrokes FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Rhoen-Klinikum Q4 Results Healthcare Providers

Straumann FY Results Medical Products

Filtrona FY Results General Industrial Services

CSR Q4 Results Semiconductors

Go-Ahead Group H1 Results Industrial Transportation

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi Q4 Results Biotechnology

Premier Foods Preliminary Results Food

Main Economic Events: Eurozone PMI Manufacturing and Services; UK Public Finances; Germany PMI

Manufacturing and Services; France PMI Manufacturing and Services

Friday, 22 February 2013 Company Event Sector

Novartis AGM Pharmaceuticals

A.P.Moller - Maersk A/S FY Results Industrial Transportation

SES FY Results Broadcasting

Gecina FY Results Real Estate

Valeo FY Results Auto Parts & Tires

Air France - KLM FY Results Airlines

Aker ASA FY Results Industrial, Diversified

John Lewis Weekly Sales Data Retail

Main Economic Events: European Commission Winter Forecasts; Germany Final Q4 GDP


UBS 6

Weeks of 18 - 22 February (alphabetical) Corporate events – alphabetical order Sunday, 17 February 2013


None

Main Economic Events: Cyprus Presidential Elections

Monday, 18 February 2013


Carlsberg A/S Q4 Results Beverage

TNT Express NV Q4 Results Industrial Transportation

Market Holidays: Canada, US



EU Parliament vote on Carbon EU Parliament vote on Carbon Utilities

Abertis FY Results Industrial Transportation

AZ Electronic Materials FY Results Chemicals

CFAO SA Q4 Results Retail

Danone FY Results Food

Deutsche Boerse FY Results Diversified Financial

Drax Group FY Results Electric Utilities

Ferrovial FY Results Industrial Transportation

Gas Natural Fenosa Q4 Results Gas Utilities

Havas FY Sales Advertising

InterContinental Hotels Group FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Metropole TV FY Results Broadcasting

MTU Aero Engines Holding AG FY Results Aerospace

Nobel Biocare FY Results Medical Products

Phoenix Group Holdings EGM Insurance

Schindler FY Results Industrial, Diversified

TF1 FY Results Broadcasting


UBS 7

Wednesday, 20 February 2013 Company Event Sector

Accor FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Akzo Nobel Q4 Results Chemicals

BHP Billiton Plc H1 Results Mining & Metals

Capgemini Q4 Results Technology Services

DSM Q4 Results Chemicals

DSV Q4 Results Industrial Transportation

Enagas FY Results Energy

France Telecom Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Icade SA FY Results Real Estate

Kabel Deutschland Q3 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Lafarge Q4 Results Building Materials

Nobel Biocare Dentsply Q4 Results Medical Products

RSA Insurance Group FY Results Insurance

Saint Gobain FY Results Building Materials

Midcap Key Call: Spectris FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

Straumann Dentsply Q4 Results Medical Products

Swedish Match FY Results Tobacco

Travis Perkins FY Results Retail

Vallourec FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Wolters Kluwer FY Results Publishing

Market Holidays: Argentina

Main Economic Events: BoE Minutes; UK Labour Data; Germany CPI; France CPI


UBS 8

Thursday, 21 February 2013 Company Event Sector

Ashmore Group H1 Results Diversified Financial

Atos Q4 Results Technology Services

BAE SYSTEMS FY Results Aerospace

Casino FY Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

CSR Q4 Results Semiconductors

Dia FY Results Food

easyJet AGM Airlines

Filtrona FY Results General Industrial Services

Go-Ahead Group H1 Results Industrial Transportation

Informa FY Results Publishing

Kingfisher Q4 Sales Retail

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi Q4 Results Biotechnology

Ladbrokes FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Mondi FY Results Forest Products & Paper

OMV Q4 Results Energy

Premier Foods Preliminary Results Food

Rhoen-Klinikum Q4 Results Healthcare Providers

Safran SA FY Results Aerospace

Schneider Electric FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

Straumann FY Results Medical Products

Swiss Re FY Results Insurance

Technip FY Results Energy

Tenaris Q4 Results Energy

Main Economic Events: Eurozone PMI Manufacturing and Services; UK Public Finances; Germany PMI

Manufacturing and Services; France PMI Manufacturing and Services

Friday, 22 February 2013 Company Event Sector

A.P.Moller - Maersk A/S FY Results Industrial Transportation

Air France - KLM FY Results Airlines

Aker ASA FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Gecina FY Results Real Estate


Novartis AGM Pharmaceuticals

SES FY Results Broadcasting

Valeo FY Results Auto Parts & Tires

Main Economic Events: European Commission Winter Forecasts; Germany Final Q4 GDP


UBS 9

Sunday, 17 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events Politics: Cyprus Economics

Cyprus Presidential Elections

Despite its small size, we view Cyprus as a potential trigger of renewed concern in Europe.The uncertainties around a Cypriot bailout might heat up over the coming weeks. In our view,the eventual shape and timing of any deal will depend critically on greater willingness tocompromise on the side of the Cypriot government after the 17 February elections. A dealwill also likely reflect the efforts of key creditor countries to reduce the package below thecurrently discussed amount of EUR17.5bn. However, a solution for Cyprus is likely to entail not just a difficult balancing act between theinterests of Cyprus and the EU/Troika. It might also raise new questions about Europe’sdetermination to cut the negative link between banking debt and sovereign debt, and hencemove convincingly towards crisis resolution. After all, the choices made in the case of Cyprusmight also have important implication for other troubled eurozone countries. If no candidate obtains 50% of the vote from the first round, a second round will take place24th February.

Reinhard Cluse ...................... +44 20 7568 6722Economist


UBS 10

Monday, 18 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events Markets closed in Canada, US Carlsberg A/S (CARLb.CO) Neutral, PT (DKr): 600 Beverage UBS Estimates Sales: DKr15.7bn EBIT: DKr2,335m Net Profit: DKr1,272m

Q4 Results

Carlsberg reports 2012 results on 18 February. UBSe Q4 12E net sales DKr15.7bn, -1% below company consensus, and EBIT of DKr2,335m, 3.8% above consensus. UBSe flat Q4NW Europe margins y/y (help from French trade load which reverses in Q1 13), and +570bpsof Q4 E Europe margin expansion y/y to 24.0% (cons 22.6%) from strong price/mix growth,some trade load and lower A&P spend. UBSe px net profit of DKr1,272m, in line withconsensus due to higher tax and interest costs. We expect Carlsberg to slightly beat its 2012 operating profit guidance, which is to be in line with 2011 DKr9.8bn. UBSe DKr10bn group EBIT, which is 0.6% above company-compiled consensus (UBSe an average RUB/€ rate of 40). We expect management to give 2013E input cost/hl guidance of low single digits y/y. Wewould expect guidance for modest Russian beer market volume growth for 2013E (UBSe+1.5%). UBSe 2013E group operating profit of DKr10.9bn, which is 1% above consensus(UBSe average RUB/€ 42.6). We highlight key risks for 2013E of (1) impact of French exciseincrease (UBSe French volumes -7%, with France c9% of group EBIT), (2) increasedcompetition in Russia from Anadolu/SAB which was a source of market share for Carlsbergin 2012, (3) further Russian regulation.

Price (DKr): 590.5Market Cap.: DKr91.7bn/€12.3bn1 mth: 4.6% abs.; 3.8% rel.3 mth: 11.1% abs.; 2.5% rel.P/E ‘12E 15.98xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 9.23xP/B ‘12E 1.3xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Melissa Earlam .......................+44-20-7568 9025Analyst

TNT Express NV (TNTE.AS) Buy, PT (€): 6.8 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: €7.4bn EBIT: €229m EPS: €0.19

Q4 Results

We forecast revenue of €7.4bn, pre-X EBIT of €229m and pre-x EPS of €0.19. Although we have not seen a consensus, we believe we are at the high end of market expectations. Webelieve the market is aware trading has been difficult and the key will be some mention ofresolving the loss-making Brazil and China operations and further cost cutting in Brazil. Weexpect any outlook commentary will be cautious – although this is unlikely to be differentfrom any other company in the sector. The real catalyst for the stock is likely to be thestrategy update in around a month’s time.

Price (€): 5.461Market Cap.: €3bn1 mth: -33.8% abs.; -33.4% rel.3 mth: -25.6% abs.; -27.7% rel.P/E ‘12E 28.39xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 6.96xP/B ‘12E 1.01xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Dominic Edridge....................+44-20-756 88779Analyst


UBS 11

Tuesday, 19 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events EU Parliament vote on Carbon Utilities

EU Parliament vote on Carbon

EU Commission proposes to delay the auctioning of 900Mtonnes of allowances 2013-15 to prop up the price. Resistance to this ‘backloading’ remains widespread. However, recentsupportive statements from German and French ministers indicate a growing political will tosave EU’s flagship climate policy and an agreement can’t be ruled out. We expect intensenewsflow with the first vote on 19 February. Most observers assume a muted impact from ‘backloading’ considering a cumulated 1.5bn tonnes surplus. We disagree as the surplus is mainly held by utilities/industrials for ‘own use’,not for trading. The primary auction supply could temporarily be 50% lower than the auctiondemand creating a considerable liquidity squeeze taking carbon to €10-15/t, potentially higher. We remain bearish on generators (ex UK) due to oversupply, renewables and weak demand.A short lived carbon spike does not change the structural view, but we think could providesupport to clean generators (eg. Verbund, Fortum, EON). As polluters don’t get the samebenefit RWE and Enel are our near term higher conviction Sells.

Per Lekander ............................+33-14-888 32 96Analyst


UBS 12

Danone (DANO.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 53 Food UBS Estimates Sales: €20.65bn EPS: €3.00

FY Results

We anticipate FY12 sales of €20.65bn (+7%) reflecting organic growth of 5.2% [consensus5.1%], of which the volume component is 1.6%. We anticipate a 60bp reduction in operatingmargin to 14.1% [consensus 14.2%], almost entirely in Dairy. This translates into underlyingEPS of €3.00 (+4%) [consensus €3.01]. We anticipate a €0.55bn increase in net debt to€3.56bn (impacted by a $1.28bn spend on acquisitions (Morocco, India) and Spanish minoritybuyout. We anticipate the ‘back to basics’ strategy being employed in European Dairy will lead to astabilisation of volumes in H2. However, we do not believe that the consensus expectation ofa FY13 13.8% margin (which we estimate implies c14% margins in European Dairy and>25% margins in Asian Baby Food) represents a firm floor. NB We have lowered our FY13adj EPS estimate by 1%, reflecting recent Euro strength. On a forward EV/Ebitda of just under 10x (implying under 9x for Dairy) the stock does notlook particularly expensive. However, as we see downside risk to our estimates, we believethe debate cannot be simply about valuation. With other consumer stocks offering muchbetter visibility and momentum, on only a c10% premium, we are not tempted by the Danoneshare price at current levels. Danone is a least preferred stock in the Food Manufacturing and HPC sector on a relative basis within the Alpha Preferences System*.

Price (€): 50.36Market Cap.: €30.5bn1 mth: 1.5% abs.; 1.0% rel.3 mth: 2.0% abs.; -5.9% rel.P/E ‘12E 16.68xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.09xP/B ‘12E 1.67xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alan Erskine ............................+44-20-7568 4395Analyst

Gas Natural Fenosa (GAS.MC) Neutral, PT (€): 15 Gas Utilities UBS Estimates EBITDA: €5.0bn Net Income: €1.49bn

Q4 Results

Gas Natural Fenosa presents FY 2012 results on Tuesday, 19th of February at 9 am CET. Presentation will take place at 10 am CET. We estimate €5.0bn EBITDA (+9% yoy) and€1.49bn Net Income (+12% yoy). We forecast Net Debt to decrease to c€16.1bn (-7% yoy). We have a Neutral rating on Gas Natural – but with a positive bias. On our 2013-14 estimates, GAS trades on 10x PE. Although this does not appear expensive, we continue tosee mid term risks in earnings from domestic gas distribution. Moreover, visibility on 2014-16 gas supply margins remains low. Attractive FCF, positive earnings momentum and gooddividends support our positive bias.

Price (€): 15.36Market Cap.: €15.2bn1 mth: 11.3% abs.; 16.2% rel.3 mth: 30.3% abs.; 19.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 10.33xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 6.66xP/B ‘12E 1.13xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alberto Gandolfi ....................+44-20-7568 3975Analyst


UBS 13

Schindler (SCHP.VX) Neutral, PT (CHF): 120 Industrial, Diversified UBS Estimates Sales: CHF8,384m EBIT: CHF1,007m Net Profit: CHF718m

FY Results

We expect the company to publish a 7% org. FY’12 order intake growth (4Q: +5%) toCHF8,930m (cons.: 8,900m), an org. FY’12 org. sales growth of 6% (co guidance: 6%; 4Q:6%) to CHF8,384m (cons.: 8,342m), an EBIT of CHF1,007m (cons.: 1,006m) representing anEBIT-margin of 12.0% (4Q: 12.3%). On net profit we estimate CHF718m (co guidance:CHF700m; cons.: 698m; 4Q. 196m). We do not expect big surprises with the result. Weexpect management to speak positively about the launch of its new series in China but to staycautiously optimistic into 2013. With a PER’13e of c20x and an EV/EBITDA of c12x, we consider the stock to be valued at the very upper end.

Price (CHF): 138.9Market Cap.: CHF16.4bn/€13.3bn1 mth: 2.9% abs.; -1.1% rel.3 mth: 13.4% abs.; 1.7% rel.P/E ‘12E 23.68xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 13.15xP/B ‘12E 5.04xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Torsten Wyss ...........................+41-44-239 15 79Analyst

Abertis (ABE.MC) Neutral, PT (€): 13 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: €3,963m EBITDA: €2,489m Net Income: €648m

FY Results

Abertis will release FY 2012 results on February 19th. We expect results to continue to reflect pressure on Spanish traffic but solid free cash flow generation. We expect traffic to be downby 10.5% y/y in Spain in FY 2012 and by 2% in France with no signs of improvement in Q4(down 10% too). Nevertheless, thanks to higher tariffs, the AP7 guarantee and good resultselsewhere we forecast group revenues to be flattish at €3,963m (up 1% y/y), EBITDA at€2,489m (up 1% y/y) and net income at €648m (excapital gains or €1.1bn includingdivestment gains). We expect a better year 2013 for the company but still showing decliningtraffic trands in Spain. In our view, stock is fairly valued trading close to NAV.

Price (€): 12.93Market Cap.: €10.5bn1 mth: 1.0% abs.; 5.5% rel.3 mth: 20.6% abs.; 10.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 16.27xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 9.96xP/B ‘12E 4xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Bosco Ojeda ..............................+34-91-436 9078Analyst

Deutsche Boerse (DB1Gn.DE) Buy, PT (€): 53 Diversified Financial

FY Results

DB1 pre-released 2012 results on 5 February, which were in line with expectations. Adjustedprofit at €660m, in line with UBSe and with consensus. Adjusted EBIT was €1.0bn vs€1.02bn for UBS and consensus. Dividend was in line with expectations at €2.1. Net revenuesat €1.93bn were also inline.

Price (€): 48.585Market Cap.: €9bn1 mth: 4.5% abs.; 4.0% rel.3 mth: 14.1% abs.; 5.2% rel.P/E ‘12E 13.47xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 7.81xP/B ‘12E 1.77xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Arnaud Giblat..........................+44-20-7568 8086Analyst


UBS 14

Ferrovial (FER.MC) Neutral, PT (€): 12.3 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: €7.5bn EBITDA: €865m Net Income: €560m

FY Results

Ferrovial will release FY 2012 results on February 19th. Group numbers will be preceeded bykey subsidiaries reporting: 1) Heathrow will release traffic data on February 11th (we expect flat FY 2012). 2) Toronto’s motorway ETR-407 released results on Feb. 14th (we expected revenues of CAN732m, up 9% y/y and EBITDA at CAN582m, 82% margin). 3) Heathrowwill release FY 2012 results on February 18th. For Ferrovial group (which does notconsolidate Heathrow/ETR-407) we expect revenues at €7.5bn up 1% y/y, EBITDA at€865m, up 6% y/y and net income at €560m. Will be interesting to see numbers at servicesand construction (we expect flattish performance), as well as working capital situation. Weforecast net cash at €900m at FY 2012 at the parent company. Ferrovial’s fundamentals arestrong but the stock had a notable rally and in our view does not offer much upside (trades at15% discount to NAV, historically a low numbers).

Price (€): 11.815Market Cap.: €8.7bn1 mth: -2.0% abs.; 2.3% rel.3 mth: 7.8% abs.; -1.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 0xEV/EBITDA ‘12E NAP/B ‘12E NAPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Bosco Ojeda ..............................+34-91-436 9078Analyst

InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.L) Sell, PT (p): 1300 Leisure Goods & Services

FY Results

We are looking for 5.2% RevPar for FY’12 and a c1.6% increase in room count (by yearend), which implies Q4 Revpar of c4% (similar to Q3) but we are clearly slightly belowconsensus in this view. The stock is highly rated and we believe significantly over valued butthe share reaction on the day will depend on (1) EPS momentum – often IHG have guided on tax rate and then come in well below to sustain EPS momentum; (2) Disposals – the company announced the intention to sell the Barclay Hotel in NYC in Feb-11 but the disposal is well behind schedule. Any news on diposal likely to be welcome but we believe non-disposal would be a real negative as would have serious implications for cashflow; (3) China – Q3 Revpar was poor and this is expected to continue; (4) Cash returns – the group has returned $1bn since Q3 but the share repurchase should be bearing its end. We believe there is unlikleyto be further share repurcahses even if they finally sell the Barclay.

2011 UBSe FY12e Cons FY'12eSales $1768m $1816m $1833mEBITDA $658m $705m $706mAdj EPS (FD) $1.27 $1.38 $1.42DPS $0.55 $0.63 $0.64

Price (p): 1947Market Cap.: £5.3bn/€6.1bn1 mth: 9.8% abs.; 5.3% rel.3 mth: 22.5% abs.; 10.6% rel.P/E ‘12E 21.95xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 12.06xP/B ‘12E -649.15xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Jonathan Leinster ................+44-20-7568 4982Analyst


UBS 15

MTU Aero Engines Holding AG (MTXGn.F) Neutral, PT (€): 72 Aerospace

FY Results

We expect the key focus will be on recent trends in aftermarket and MRO. P&W’ commentson strong V2500 and better than expected PW2000 spares growth in Q4 are encouraging forMTU’s outlook. We believe MTU will provide financial guidance for 2013 after providingguidance for key drivers at the investor day. We do not expect material upgrades to consensus estimates post FY12 results. However, webelieve there may be upside risk to our cautious view from a potential re-rating of the share price if multiples expand to reflect lower equity risk premiums. Some of the European mid-cap industrial stocks trade on EV/EBIT 14E multiples of 10x-13x. By our estimate a similar valuation multiple would imply a share price of €77-€105 for MTU.

Price (€): 70.601Market Cap.: €3.6bn1 mth: -1.7% abs.; -2.2% rel.3 mth: 10.4% abs.; 1.7% rel.P/E ‘12E 15.15xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.18xP/B ‘12E 3.96xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Rami Myerson, CFA.............+44-20-7568 4375Analyst

Drax Group (DRX.L) Buy, PT (p): 685 Electric Utilities UBS Estimates EBITDA: £293.9m EPS: 49.4p

FY Results

Drax is due to report 2012 earnings on Tuesday 19 February. UBS forecast EBITDA of£293.9mn, down 12% on the £333.6mn of 2011, with around half of this reduction due to apreviously disclosed c.£20mn one-off additional biomass R&D spend. EPS is forecast to bedown 11% to 49.4p from the 55.5p of 2011. However, UBS believe that the market’s focuswill instead centre on Drax’s progress in their biomass conversion project, especially withrespect to further securing their required biomass fuel supply through both contracting andown upstream investment. UBS believe that the costs of storage and logistical investment associated with the company’sinvestment in own biomass pellet plants may initially limit them to only 2 plants within their original £150-200mn biomass upstream investment guidance (rather than the 3 originallymooted), although the company is likely to maintain their mid-teen return guidance on this total investment. UBS forecast that these first 2 own pellet plants will contribute c.£30mn toEBITDA when operational (2015), lifting normalised EPS (2017) by c.9%, and addingc.40p/share to our Drax fair value. Drax Group is a most preferred stock in the Utilities sector on a relative basis within the Alpha Preferences System*.

Price (p): 611.5Market Cap.: £2.5bn/€2.8bn1 mth: 8.7% abs.; 4.3% rel.3 mth: 12.9% abs.; 2.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 12.39xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 7.21xP/B ‘12E 1.44xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Stephen Hunt ..........................+44-20-7567 0716Analyst


UBS 16

CFAO SA (CFAO.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 37.8 Retail UBS Estimates Sales: €934.4m

Q4 Results

We are expecting Q4E sales of €934.4m, a +8.8% growth yoy and 8.5% LFL. We expectstrong performance from Industries, Equipment and Services division (sales up 16.9%,+22.6% like-for-like). We also expect Eurapharma (+14.3% LFL) to perform well.Automotive LFL growth might be slower (+2.9% LFL) due to demanding comps. Outlook: We would expect update about de-listing of CFAO during results or in short timeperiod after that.

Price (€): 35.49Market Cap.: €2.2bn1 mth: 1.1% abs.; 0.6% rel.3 mth: -4.8% abs.; -12.2% rel.P/E ‘12E 16.22xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 8.17xP/B ‘12E 3.54xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Julie de Vigneral.....................+33-14-888 33 60Analyst

Havas (EURC.PA) Buy, PT (€): 5.4 Advertising UBS Estimates Revenues: €1773m EPS: €0.34

FY Sales

We argue that Havas will continue to outperform driven by cyclical recovery, continuedsuccess in the US, margin expansion and deployment of the balance sheet on acquisitions.The company will report revs on 19 February and full results on 21 March at which point we expect management tone to be positive and point to potential for upgrades to consensus. We forecast rev €1773m (cons €1770m) with organic growth of 2.5% (cons 2.4%) and FXand acqn benefit. We incorporate flat margin at 13.4%, in line with guidance, giving EPS of€0.34. We expect management to guide to margin expansion in 2013. Management have recently commented that Q3 trends had continued into Q4 (organic growthwas Q1 3.5%, Q2 2.1%, Q3 +2%). There has been some recovery in the US business in whichmanagement had invested in H112 and is now seeing the benefit. We expect +ve trends inEM and LatAm and EU deterioration in Q3 to continue in Q4.


Tamsin Garrity........................+44-20-7568 1315Analyst

TF1 (TFFP.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 7.7 Broadcasting

FY Results




UBS 17

AZ Electronic Materials (AZEM.L) Neutral, PT (p): 390 Chemicals UBS Estimates Sales: US$795m EBITDA: US$262m

FY Results

Following a strong run in AZ’s share price in 2012, we believe that risk-reward in the shares is now balanced with the stock trading at a small discount to the UK specialty chemical peers. Longer term we believe AZ may offer an interesting investment case with: Strong organicgrowth opportunities and a strong product pipeline; an attractive margin profile at 33%EBITDA that we believe should be relatively defensive in a downturn and strong cash generation with AZ converting over 70% of its EBITDA into cash and we see this increasingtowards 80%. We expect AZ to report full year 2012E results largely in-line with consensus of $795m (UBSe $793m) and with EBITDA of $262m (both UBSe and consensus). We believe that the leading indicators in the semiconductor market are likely to trough in Q1both in terms of utilisation rates and y-o-y growth rates. We think this should be supportivefor earnings momentum for AZ which we believe should be supportive through 2013.

Price (p): 380.5Market Cap.: £1.4bn/€1.7bn1 mth: 2.6% abs.; -1.6% rel.3 mth: 4.7% abs.; -5.4% rel.P/E ‘12E 17.18xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 9.83xP/B ‘12E 3xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

David Mulholland ..................+44-20-7568 4069Analyst

Metropole TV (MMTP.PA) Buy, PT (€): 18.5 Broadcasting

FY Results



Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.L) Sell, PT (p): 500 Insurance

EGM

Price (p): 630Market Cap.: £1.1bn/€1.2bn1 mth: 12.9% abs.; 8.3% rel.3 mth: 25.1% abs.; 13.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 5.87xEV/EBITDA ‘12E NAP/B ‘12E 0.71xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

James Pearce .........................+44-20-7568 0470Analyst


UBS 18

Nobel Biocare (NOBN.S) Neutral, PT (CHF): 9 Medical Products

FY Results

With few signs of dental implant recovery from competitors who have reported so far, welook for Q4 12 revenues of €148m (-5.7% organic growth) reflecting continued Japan (welook for -20% Asia Pacific growth) and European (-4%) weakness, offset by modest NorthAmerican (+1%) growth. Consequently our €14.3m EBIT (9.6% margin) is some 4.6% belowVARA consensus. We anticipate hedging gains offsetting this hence our above consensus.EPSe for Q4. On a FY basis these differences are more modest. 2013 outlook is likely to beconservative at the top line, we and consensus look for 1% organic growth, with a modestimprovement in EBIT margin driven by further cost cutting. FX drives the differences inUBSe reported 2013 vs consensus, we believe, € strength and Yen weakness impactingforecasts. €m Q4 12E 2012ERevenue 148.2 575.7

151.4 579-2.1% -0.6%

CER Growth -5.7% -3.1%-4.3% -3.0%

-142bps -9bpsEBIT (adj) 14.3 68.7

14.9 69.3-4.6% -0.9%

Margin 9.6% 11.9%9.8% 11.9%

-19bps -2bpsEPS (adj) 0.1 0.39

0.08 0.3634.0% 7.4%

Source: UBSe, Vara consensus

Price (CHF): 9.78Market Cap.: CHF1.2bn/€1bn1 mth: 13.1% abs.; 8.7% rel.3 mth: 25.4% abs.; 12.5% rel.P/E ‘12E 21.01xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.06xP/B ‘12E 3.14xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Martin Wales, PhD ................+44-20-7568 8428Analyst


UBS 19

Wednesday, 20 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events Markets closed in Argentina Economics: UK Economics

BoE Minutes

The BoE publishes the minutes of its meeting, while we expect a unanimous decision on rates we expect an 8-1 split on the QE program.

Labour Data

Data from the labour front for the month of December will be released and we expect the 3month average weekly earnings to grow by 1.3% slower and 1.5% last month.

Amit Kara ..................................+44-20-7568 3522Economist

Economics: Germany Economics

CPI

German inflation data for January is due and is likely to remain unchanged from its flashestimates of 1.9% YoY.

Martin Lueck............................+49-69-1369-8280Economist

Economics: France Economics

CPI

French inflation data for January is due and is likely to rise to 1.9% YoY (from 1.5% YoY)previously.


BHP Billiton Plc (BLT.L) Buy, PT (p): 2100 Mining & Metals UBS Estimates Net Profit: US$5630m EPS: US$1.06 DPS: US$0.57

H1 Results

BHP will report its interim results for FY H1 2013 on 20 Feb 2013. We expect BHP to reportan EPS of US$1.06 for FY H1 2013 which is 22% lower from FY H2 2012 and 43% lowerfrom FY H1 2012. We expect BHP to declare an interim dividend of US$0.57/sh.We forecastFY H1 2013 net profit of US$m 5630 (down 43% y/y). On current share price of £21.93 BHPis trading at a PE multiple of 14.3x for 2013E and 14.4x for 2014E.

Price (p): 2193Market Cap.: £116.7bn/€134.9bn1 mth: 5.7% abs.; 1.4% rel.3 mth: 12.3% abs.; 1.4% rel.P/E ‘13E 13.76xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 7.19xP/B ‘13E 2.48xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Myles Allsop ............................+44-20-7568 1693Analyst


UBS 20

France Telecom (FTE.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 8 Fixed-Line Communications

Q4 Results

Price (€): 7.74Market Cap.: €20.2bn1 mth: -11.4% abs.; -11.8% rel.3 mth: -5.8% abs.; -13.1% rel.P/E ‘12E 5.8xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 4.03xP/B ‘12E 0.71xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Nick Lyall ..................................+44-20-756 86332Analyst

Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 33.5 Building Materials UBS Estimates EBITDA: €4,438m Op. Income: €2,899m

FY Results

We expect FY12E EBITDA of €4,438m and operating income of €2,899m. This implies a-13.5% organic EBITDA decline despite €500m of cost savings. We forecast group LFL Q4 sales of -0.9% split into +0.5% pricing growth and -1.4% volume declines. This is an improvement vs. the -1.9% run rate of Q3 which was impacted by one less working day and atough comparison basis in Exterior Products as well as weakness in the capex related activities within High Performance Materials. We recently lowered our EBITDA forecast for FY13E by 1% and -2% for FY14-16E, due to a stronger EUR impacting as well as slightly lowered organic growth assumptions fromFY14E onwards. We expect hardly any LFL EBITDA growth in FY13E (+1.4%) but +11%in FY14E due to a recovery in flat glass margins. We do not expect earnings upgrades due to tough trading comps in Q412 and Q113. The 70%sales exposure to Europe, with 30% in France will continue to weigh on a potential earningsrecovery. We think a recovery in flat glass, which we do not forecast for FY13E due todeclining end markets (construction and auto production) could bring upside although thiscould be balanced by weakness in the other divisions. Saint Gobain is a least preferred stock in the Construction sector on a relative basiswithin the Alpha Preferences System*.

Price (€): 30.07Market Cap.: €15.8bn1 mth: -5.2% abs.; -5.7% rel.3 mth: 5.9% abs.; -2.4% rel.P/E ‘12E 14.06xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 6.71xP/B ‘12E 0.87xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Benjamin Rosenberger ......+44-20-7567 1126Analyst


UBS 21

Lafarge (LAFP.PA) Buy, PT (€): 51 Building Materials UBS Estimates EBITDA: €807m

Q4 Results

We expect Q412 EBITDA of €807m (+1% y/y) which is equivalent to a 6.9% growth rate y/yadjusted for significantly lower CO2 profits expected in Q4. We expect volumes to have beenweak in Q4 (cement -3%) mainly as a result of weakness in Europe, but also declines inEgypt, Morocco and a slow down in Nigeria. The underlying growth in profitability is stillpredominantly driven by cost reduction efforts (€110m expected in Q4). We still believe FY13E should be a good year with c10% underlying EBITDA growth. Ourrecent 4% reduction in our FY13E EBITDA estimate reflects an adjustment for FX (c3%drag) and lower CO2 contribution (c1%). Fundamentally our assumptions have not changed.We think our forecasts could be conservative if Lafarge manages to fully offset cost inflation(UBSE +4% for all costs in FY13E) and to deliver the ‘innovation’ gains to the bottom line.Overall we are c4% below consensus at this point for FY13E EBITDA. We expect further de-leveraging efforts in FY13E after c€800m of asset disposals in 2012(and beginning of 2013). Prices achieved have been solid and we expect Lafarge to target afurther €1bn of disposals in FY13E to accelerate the de-leveraging efforts and re-gain an investment grade credit rating. On our forecast (pre disposals) we only expect investmentgrade credit metrics by 2015E but we believe Lafarge will make every effort to bring thisforward.

Price (€): 45.87Market Cap.: €13.2bn1 mth: -4.2% abs.; -4.7% rel.3 mth: -0.3% abs.; -8.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 21xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 8.04xP/B ‘12E 0.93xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Gregor Kuglitsch...................+44-20-7567 3553Analyst


UBS 22

Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS) Sell, PT (€): 38 Chemicals UBS Estimates Sales: €16.5bn EBITDA: €1915m EBIT: €1426m EPS: €3.24 DPS: €1.45

Q4 Results

Akzo Nobel is expected to release FY numbers on February 20th. We forecast group sales of €16.5bn (+5.3% y/y and 1% above consensus), EBITDA of €1915m (+7% y/y and 1% belowconsensus), EBIT of €1426m (+6% y/y and 11% above consensus but we publish EBITA, iebefore purchase amortisation, like for like we are in line) and EPS pre-exceptionals of €3.24 (+11% y/y and in line with consensus). Akzo guides for a €400m reversal of the goodwill write down incurred in Q3, corresponding to the proportion attributable to North America Deco, which was sold to PPG in December.Accordingly, this business unit will move to discontinued operations. For 2013, we have taken all North America deco exposure out of our sales estimates. Our FY sales estimate has gone down by 7% to €15914m, with EBITDA stable. Our EBIT estimatehas gone up to €1564m due to lower depreciation. Our EPS estimate has gone up to €3.64 1%above consensus. For 2014, our sales/EBITDA estimates have been reduced by 7%, our EBITestimates went down by 5% to €1769m and our EPS estimate has gone up by 2% on a lowertax rate as Akzo Nobel will keep most of the US tax loss carry forwards accumulated sincethe acquisition of ICI North America. We do not expect Akzo to give a quantitative outlook with FY results but rather qualitative comments based on the evolution of the economy. For 2013 we expect sales of €15.9bn, -4% y/y, based on 6% organic growth and -10% portfolio (ie divestments of North America deco).Our sales estimate is 4% below consensus, which, in our view, still has North American decoincluded. We expect flat dividend y/y at €1.45 in line with Akzo’s dividend policy of ‘flat to risingdividend’. The dividend yield is therefore expected to settle at 2.8%. We expect net debt of€2.764bn at year end.


Thomas Gilbert ........................+41-44-23 91643Analyst


UBS 23

DSM (DSMN.AS) Neutral, PT (€): 41 Chemicals UBS Estimates EBITDA: €276m

Q4 Results

We expect DSM to have had a stable quarter in Nutrition but will continue to see choppy andweak trading in Materials Science segments due to automotive OEM production slowdown and protracted destocking particularly in Asia. We foresee group EBITDA at €276m. We expect the Nutrition Division to contribute 75% of group EBITDA in Q4 delivering€213m, vs €193m in Q4/2011 and €202m in Q3/2012. We believe that Nutrition productpricing has been slightly negative with pricing falling 1% YoY. Forex contribution will likely taper off to 0.7% in the quarter from a YTD run rate of 3.7%. We still see sub optimal volumegrowth in nutrition at 2.0% largely due to the impacts of integration of recent acquisitionswith resultant product rationalisation. We believe the Pharma Division has seen stable performance during the third quarter albeit ata low EBITDA margin of 5.8%. We foresee the division delivering an EBITDA of €10m in Q4/2102 versus €11m a year earlier. Pharma volumes are forecast to grow 6.5% YoY whilepricing continues to remain flat. We estimate a +5.7% impact to the top line from forex. Developments in Performance Materials will likely show typical seasonal weakness coupled with end market destocking. We are expecting Q4 EBITDA at €54m. The pull back ondefence spending is continuing to impact sales volumes in Dyneema and this is why weforesee volumes being flat YoY. Polymer Intermediates continue to remain at trough margins thanks to weak demand in bothCaprolactam and Acylonitrile. We expect EBITDA to show little change from Q3/12 andcome in at €22m. The Innovation Division is expected to to incur a negative EBITDA of €4m per quarter(including credits from Kensey Nash acquisition) and total Corporate Costs are -€81m for FY2012. Company guidance and likely outlook for 2012: Nutrition above 2011 EBITDA of €735m;Pharma above 2011 EBITDA of €36m; Performance Materials somewhat above 2011EBITDA of €293m; Polymer Intermediates at “historical levels”. 2013 EBITDA expected atthe lower end of the target range of €1.4-1.6bn.


Joe Dewhurst ..........................+44-20-7568 8327Analyst


UBS 24

Accor (ACCP.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 26.5 Leisure Goods & Services

FY Results

The main investment case for Accor is the move from operators of hotels to a more asset light branded business based on franchise and mgt contract hotels. In order to ensure this they must‘dispose’ of leased and owned (but mostly leased) hotels to other operators who will operatethem under Accor brands. The FY’12 results are likely to focus on this process and givedetails and targets for this critical programme. Given they do not actually own the propertieswe view this as critical to long term success. Newsflow of RevPar outlook in France (50%+of profits) also important.

2011 UBSe FY12e Cons FY'12eSales €6100m €5649m €5639mEBITDA €848m €887m €862mAdj EPS (FD) €1.4 €1.47 €1.36DPS €0.7 €0.77 €0.7



Kabel Deutschland (KD8Gn.DE) Neutral, PT (€): 68 Fixed-Line Communications

Q3 Results

KD8 will report fiscal Q3 results (December quarter) on 20 February. Consensus expectsrevenues to grow +8.3% to €463m with EBITDA growing +9.4% to €219m giving an EBITDA margin of 47.3%. On KPIs, consensus forecasts KD8 double-play (HSIP) net adds of +74k with double-play ARPU of €28.54pm (vs €28.51pm last quarter). Cable continues totake share in broadband and takes the majority of market growth. We estimate KD8 to do +76k double-play net adds in Dec vs +71k seen in the September quarter. We would not expect any changes to FY guidance of 7.5-8.5% revenue growth (cons +7.9%), EBITDA of €855-870m (cons €864m), capex as a % of sales of 26% (cons 25.8%) and 3-3.5x net debt/EBITDA (cons 3.4x). Near term, we believe the focus will be on M&A (press reports about a bid from Vodafone),the potential loss of carriage revenues from German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF, aswell as the FCO’s decision regarding the Telecolumbus acquisition by 25 February. Fundamentally, we like KD8 but its valuation looks relatively full on 18.5x 2013EEV/OpFCF vs peers on 14x. The conference call takes place on Wed, February 20 at 2UK time, +44(0)20 7136 2050,http://kabeldeutschland200213-live.audio-webcast.com.

Price (€): 69.17Market Cap.: €6.4bn1 mth: 20.3% abs.; 19.7% rel.3 mth: 28.0% abs.; 18.0% rel.P/E ‘13E 22.86xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 10.45xP/B ‘13E -4.97xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Polo Tang..................................+44-20-7568 1286Analyst


UBS 25

Swedish Match (SWMA.ST) Buy, PT (SKr): 300 Tobacco UBS Estimates Sales: SKr3,128m EBIT: SKr979m

FY Results

We look for Net sales of SKr 3,128m and EBIT of SKr979m. The cigar business transferredto STG is expected to contribute by SKr 99.6m. The Snus & Snuff margin is expected at(566/1,284) = 44.1%. The price cuts in low-end among peers in Q312 to some extent stoppedin October which implies that low-end market share, with Kaliber bra etc, is expexcted to fare better than in Q3, when group EBIT missed consensus by 2% caused by this. In Q4 webelieve cigarr promotions within mass market will have significantly driven market share, butat the expense of margin. Going forward, as we have mentioned before, we believe its likeley that it will spin-off the cigars. An important trigger in 2013 is the break-even in Q4 for US snus roll-out which implies snus margin no longer is diluted, but back to where it was before.

Price (SKr): 225.5Market Cap.: SKr47.2bn/€5.6bn1 mth: -0.8% abs.; -5.6% rel.3 mth: 2.0% abs.; -10.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 15.8xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 12.9xP/B ‘12E -14.42xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

David Hallden..............................+46-8-453 7330Analyst

RSA Insurance Group (RSA.L) Neutral, PT (p): 125 Insurance

FY Results

RSA is due to release its FY12 results on Wednesday 20th February. FY12 Reuters’ consensus for profit before tax of £599m is 2% below FY11. Consensus forNet Written Premium (NWP) of £8,471m represents 4% growth from FY11. DPS consensusis 9.31p, 2% above FY11. Consensus for reported NAV per share is 4% below FY11 at 104p. £ million 2011 FY12 Cons Cons vs FY11Net written premiums 8,138 8,471 4%Profit before tax 613 599 -2%DPS (p) 9.16 9.31 2%Reported NAV (p) 108 104 -4%Source: Reuters

Price (p): 134.1Market Cap.: £4.6bn/€5.3bn1 mth: 5.1% abs.; 0.9% rel.3 mth: 19.4% abs.; 7.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 13.4xEV/EBITDA ‘12E NAP/B ‘12E 2.17xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

James Pearce .........................+44-20-7568 0470Analyst


UBS 26

Vallourec (VLLP.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 40 Industrial, Diversified

FY Results

Vallourec’s results are likely to continue to be negatively impacted by two main factors: 1)Weaker sales in the industrial portfolio due to lower demand in Europe and Brazil along withlower iron ore revenues; and 2) the US rig count has fallen 12% in the year and is at 20 month low, although the rising intensity of drilling (more feet drilled per well) means that oil and gassales are still likely to grow but at a lower rate. We forecast a dividend per share of €0.60(-54% y/y) based on a 33% payout. Key focus: (1) industrial segment (25% of 2011 sales) fundamentals could be turning inEurope and Brazil continues to grow; (2) certification of Brazil mill and (3) ramp-up of new US mill. Guidance: For 2012, Vallourec expects (1) EBITDA margin close to 15%. Typically,Vallourec will issue some full year guidance with the 4Q results.

4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E y/y q/qRevenue € 1,553 1334 1347 -13% 1%EBIT € 196 133 137 -30% 3%EPS € 0.97 0.51 0.6 -38% 19%DPS € 1.30 0.00 0.6 -54% - Vallourec is a least preferred stock in the Oil sector on a relative basis within the AlphaPreferences System*.


Amy Wong ................................+44-20-7568 1235Analyst

Wolters Kluwer (WLSNc.AS) Buy, PT (€): 20.5 Publishing UBS Estimates Revenues: €3579m EBITA: €778m EPS: €1.57

FY Results

Wolters Kluwer will report FY results at 7am UK time on February 20th. There is a webcast presentation at 9am UK time. We forecast revenues of €3579m and EBITA of €778m (bothc1-2% above consensus), a margin of 21.7%. We also forecast EPS of €1.57 (cons €1.55). Bydivision, we forecast a 3% organic decline in L&R, 1.5% growth in Tax and nearly 5%growth in both Health & FCS. We expect management to re-iterate their regular guidance of margin expansion in 2013, however the key will be any signs that revenue declines in theEuropean Legal business are starting to ease, and any commentary on new potential costsavings. Avoiding notable disappointments should, in itself, act as a positive catalyst for theshares given their depressed valuation at 9.6x 2013E EPS.


Alastair Reid ............................+44-20-7568 8011Analyst


UBS 27

Enagas (ENAG.MC) Buy, PT (€): 20 Energy UBS Estimates EBITDA: €949m Net Income: €377m

FY Results

Enagas presents FY 2012 results on Wednesday, 20th of February. We estimate €949m EBITDA (+7% yoy) and €377m in Net Income (+4% yoy). We forecast Net Debt to increaseto c€3.6bn (+4% yoy). We upgraded Enagas to Buy in January based on its strong fundamentals and depressed valuation. With net debt / EBITDA of c3.8x in 2012E, Enagas has the strongest balance sheetamongst European regulated utilities. On top of this, the company generates c20% FCF yieldbefore dividends and growth capex.


Alberto Gandolfi ....................+44-20-7568 3975Analyst

Travis Perkins (TPK.L) Neutral, PT (p): 1250 Retail UBS Estimates Op. Profit: £311m PBT: £299m EPS: 95p

FY Results

We expect Travis to report FY12E operating profit (excluding property profits of £16m) of£311m. Further, we expect pre-exceptional PBT of £299m and pre-exceptional EPS of 95p. We estiamate group LFL for FY12E should be -1.6% due to 1.5% price and -3.1% volume. We have raised our forecasts slightly (EPS by 1-2% over the forecast period), as we raised our group LFL to 1.2% from 0.9%. At its December trading update, the company guided forFY13E LFL growth in the range of 0 to 2% (UBSE 1.2%), based on market volumes of -1% to -2%, 1% outperformance and +1% to 2% price inflation. Other headwinds include: c£20m overhead inflation (+1.5%) and a £12m higher pension expense. However, there should becost efficiency programmes to offset some of this. We believe we would need consensus upgrades to see potential upside. While new buildvolumes could show a pickup in FY13E, Travis’ exposure to this segment is only c20%. Wecontinue to view the company as very high quality and we expect measures to mitigate thedecline in end markets. However, this is unlikely to be enough to drive the shares from thecurrent level and we do not believe in significant upgrades for now.


Benjamin Rosenberger ......+44-20-7567 1126Analyst


UBS 28

Icade SA (ICAD.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 63 Real Estate UBS Estimates NAV: €82.9 EPS: €4.6 DPS: €3.8

FY Results

We estimate Icade’s current cash flow per share of €4.6 (+6%, YoY) driven by higher rental income from the office and healthcare portfolios, partially offset by higher finance costs. Weexpect dividend to increase by 3% to €3.8 per share (cons €3.7). The Group has made a lot ofletting progress in 2012 and we would expect to see occupancy improve again from 93.3% at H112. We forecast NAV of €82.9 per share (vs. €80.8 in H112), which is below consensus(€85.1). We see a risk that the residential sales volume disappoints due to reduced housingdemand. Event effect: The risk is in the housing volume number, which may mean EPS disappoints,but the shares already trade at a big discount to NAV and offer a high dividend yield, so wesee limited share price downside from here.

Price (€): 68.2Market Cap.: €3.5bn1 mth: 5.1% abs.; 4.5% rel.3 mth: -0.1% abs.; -7.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 14.84xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 17.03xP/B ‘12E 0.82xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Kristian Bandy........................+44-20-7568 4416Analyst

DSV (DSV.CO) Neutral, PT (DKr): 130 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: DKr44.7bn EBIT: DKr2.55bn Net Income: DKr1.405bn DPS: DKr1.25

Q4 Results

We forecast revenue of DKK44.7bn (cons 44.8bn), pre-x EBIT of 2.55bn (guidance 2.5-2.7bn; cons 2.57bn) and net income of 1.405bn (cons 1.460bn) and DPS of DKK1.25. Weexpect a cautious outlook statement given weak freight volumes. Our 2013 forecasts are forEBIT of DKK2.71bn (cons 2.72bn). Investors will also be looking for further share buyback announcements and/or signs of more M&A to boost growth.

Price (DKr): 142.5Market Cap.: DKr25.7bn/€3.4bn1 mth: -1.0% abs.; -1.8% rel.3 mth: 7.5% abs.; -0.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 14.92xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.63xP/B ‘12E 4.61xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40



UBS 29

Midcap Key Call: Spectris (SXS.L) Buy, PT (p): 2525 Electric Components & Equipment UBS Estimates Revenues: £1,230m EBIT: £229m

FY Results

Spectris’ results should lack excitement given we already know Q4 organic growth and knowwhere FY operating profit is expected to be. We forecast revenues of £1,230m with organicgrowth of just over 3%. This means that Q4 will have been 4%, which is what managementguided to in January’s trading update. Adjusted EBIT is forecast at £229m with margins of18.6% up 40bp y/y. We note that while management have provided explicit guidance on FYresults, historically they have still managed to report profits £1-2m higher at the preliminary results themselves. Key in our view will be outlook and whether the acceleration in growthseen in Q4 can be sustained in 2013. Spectris is a most preferred stock in the Small & Midcaps sector on a relative basiswithin the Alpha Preferences System*. Spectris is in our Small & Midcap Key Call list of our highest conviction ideas inEurope.


Stephen Swanton, CFA......+44-20-7568 4271Analyst

Capgemini (CAPP.PA) Buy, PT (€): 42 Technology Services UBS Estimates Sales: €2,633m

Q4 Results

Capgemini enjoyed strong contract momentum exiting 2012, announcing a significant winwith the US Dep’t of Homeland Security, a £100m 2-year project roll-out at Direct Line in the UK and BPO contract extensions with Unilever. We expect its N American business to continue to be the best performer, reflecting both u/lying demand fundamentals and the moremarginal impact of increased offshoring in the US, where penetration rates are already veryhigh. We are in-line in looking for Q4 sales up 1.0% y/y to €2,633m (cons. €2,628m), but our fullyear margin expectation of 7.8% is ahead of consensus (7.6%) as we already excludeAcquired Intangibles Amortisation. We think this may also explain some – but not all – of the gap in 2013 (UBSe: 8.2%; cons. 7.8%). In 2013 we believe the benefit of Q4 12’srestructuring in Benelux, the ramp-up of Caixa in Brazil and continued ramp-up of offshore resources within the mix should be supportive of further margin expansion. Offsetting this,low-margin subcontractor sales at ASPIRE are likely to continue and remain a drag toprofitability. Capgemini indicated it expected to increase margins when it announced CFO Ezzat’sappointment in December. Having given only vague guidance for “limited organic growth inrevenues…and… margin”, at the start of 2012, we would hope a more confident and explicittone will be taken this year. Upside to 50bp of margin expansion would clearly be taken well,given the consensus is looking for just 20bp.


Michael Briest .........................+44-20-7568 8367Analyst


UBS 30

Straumann (STMN.S) / Nobel Biocare (NOBN.S) Medical Products

Dentsply Q4 Results

We may get some read through as to broader dental implant market trends when competitor Dentsply reports at noon UK time on 20-Feb-13.

Straumann (STMN.S) Neutral, PT (CHF): 114Price (CHF): 129Market Cap.: CHF2bn/€1.6bn1 mth: 13.0% abs.; 8.6% rel.3 mth: 23.6% abs.; 10.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 28.49xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 11.45xP/B ‘12E 3.01xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40 Nobel Biocare (NOBN.S) Neutral, PT (CHF): 9Price (CHF): 9.78Market Cap.: CHF1.2bn/€1bn1 mth: 13.1% abs.; 8.7% rel.3 mth: 25.4% abs.; 12.5% rel.P/E ‘12E 21.01xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.06xP/B ‘12E 3.14xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40



UBS 31

Thursday, 21 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events Economics: Eurozone Economics

PMI Manufacturing and Services

We expect the manufacturing indices to improve to 48.9 (from 47.9), while the services indexmay remain little changed from January.


Economics: UK Economics

Public Finances

Public finances data for the month of January is due and we expect the Public sector net borrowing to improve to GBP 8.3 bn from GBP -13.2 bn in December.




We expect the manufacturing indices to improve to 51.0 (from 49.8), while the services index may remain little changed from January.


Economics: France Economics


We expect the manufacturing indices to improve to 44.4 (from 42.9), while the services index may remain little changed from January.


Schneider Electric (SCHN.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 50 Electric Components & Equipment

FY Results


Fredric Stahl, CFA ....................+46-8-453 7309Analyst


UBS 32

Swiss Re (SRENH.VX) Neutral, PT (CHF): 72 Insurance

FY Results

Swiss Re will release its 2012 figures on 21st February at 6.00am UK time. Consensus is fromVARA research collected on behalf of Swiss Re. The DPS includes (we believe) a componentfor the Special dividend which we estimate to be CHF2 per share (assuming a base dividendper share of CHF3.25 per share). This would correspond to Swiss Re returning ~$750mn to shareholders via a special dividend. There is a conference call at 1pm UK time. Dial in +4191 610 5600 (Switzerland); + 49 69 25 511 4445 (Germany); +33 1 7091 8706 (France); +44203 059 5862 (UK); +1 631 570 5613 (USA). Password “February”. $ mn FY12E UBS Cons.Group net earned premiums 25,002 25,042P&C Re net income 2,494 2,457L&H Re net income 853 796Corporate solutions net income 263 232Admin Re net income 116 125Group net income 3,605 3,619EPS CHF 9.73 9.79P&C Re combined ratio 86.10% 86.60%Corporate solutions combined ratio 96.20% 96.40%Group shareholders' equity 33,317 33,107Group RoE 12% 12%DPS (including Special Div) CHF 5.25 5.16

Price (CHF): 73Market Cap.: CHF25bn/€20.3bn1 mth: 5.1% abs.; 1.0% rel.3 mth: 10.1% abs.; -1.2% rel.P/E ‘12E 7.5xEV/EBITDA ‘12E NAP/B ‘12E 0.94xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Kathy Fear ................................+44-20-7568 2014Analyst

Tenaris (TENR.MI) Neutral, PT (USD): 45.5 Energy

Q4 Results

Seamless volumes are expected to increase sequentially but welded volumes continue to benegatively impacted by slower North America activity. We forecast overall tube volumes andaverage selling prices to be flat q-on-q. We forecast a dividend per share of $0.32/share to beannounced, bringing the full year dividend to $0.45/share, equivalent to a 30% payout (2.2%yield). Key focus: (1) 2013 outlook; (2) new US mill investment; (3) product, pricing and margin mix; (4) impact of higher iron ore and scrap costs. Guidance: (1) 2012 and 2013 EBITDA margin around 26.5%; (2) Capex for FY 12 around$800m, FY 13 around $750m but rising in 2014 and 2015 as the construction of new US millramps up.

4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E y/y q/qRevenue $2751 2657 2657 -3% 0%EBIT $556 535 570 2% 7%EPS (GAAP) $0.34 0.37 0.35 3% -6%EPS (UBS) $0.38 0.37 0.37 -1% 0%DPS $0.25 0.00 0.32 26% -

Price (€): 40.79Market Cap.: €24.1bn/€17.9bn1 mth: -2.3% abs.; -5.4% rel.3 mth: 11.9% abs.; 1.2% rel.P/E ‘12E 12.91xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 8.31xP/B ‘12E 2.11xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Amy Wong ................................+44-20-7568 1235Analyst


UBS 33

Safran SA (SAF.PA) Buy, PT (€): 36 Aerospace UBS Estimates Revenues: €13.3bn EBITA: €1,486m EPS: €2.03

FY Results

We expect Safran to report Revenues of €13.3bn, EBITA of €1,486m, and an EPS of €2.03.We believe consensus forecasts are for revenues of €13.3bn and EBIT of €1.45bn. For FY13we forecast revenues of €14.3bn (cons.: €14.25bn), EBITA of €1,778m (cons.: €1,731m) andan EPS of €2.52. We believe the key focus of investors is likely to be aftermarket trends inthe Propulsion and Equipment divisions following the wide variance of aftermarket trendsreported by commercial aerospace peers in FY12 and Safran’s expectations for aftermarketgrowth in FY13. Safran will host an investor presentation in Paris at 08.45 CET / 07.45 UK time.

Price (€): 33.44Market Cap.: €13.9bn1 mth: 0.9% abs.; 0.3% rel.3 mth: 11.5% abs.; 2.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 16.48xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 7xP/B ‘12E 1.87xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Rami Myerson, CFA.............+44-20-7568 4375Analyst

BAE SYSTEMS (BAES.L) Buy, PT (p): 360 Aerospace UBS Estimates Sales: £19bn EBITA: £1,862m PBT: £1,684m EPS: 37.5p DPS: 19.7p

FY Results

BAE Systems will report FY 2012 results on 21st February – we are expecting sales to be down 1% to £19bn, EBITA down 6% to £1,862m (including the ~£150m hit from Saudi PriceEscalation not being signed), PBT down 6% to £1,684m, EPS down 3% to 37.5p. We expectdividend to increase 5% to 19.7p. The key number is cash – we expect strong pre-payments from Saudi and Oman to offset the cash consumption of prepayments on UK Eurofighter andexpect net debt to be in the £900-1,000m range. We believe this may be low enough for thecompany to consider a share repurchase, although the continued uncertainty in the US may defer this. We believe that the long term cash generation is sufficient to repurchase circa£500m of shares per year, but the timing of when this starts is difficult to forecast as BAESystems’ cash deployment priorities are 1) maintaining investment rating and pension recovery plan, 2) dividends, 3) share repurchases, 4) M&A.

Price (p): 331.2Market Cap.: £11.3bn/€13.1bn1 mth: -5.3% abs.; -9.1% rel.3 mth: 7.4% abs.; -3.0% rel.P/E ‘12E 8.83xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 6.39xP/B ‘12E 1.9xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Charles Armitage ..................+44-20-7567 9351Analyst


UBS 34

OMV (OMVV.VI) Neutral, PT (€): 26 Energy

Q4 Results

We forecast production at 309kboe/d, flat q/q in line with the company’s guidance providedat the 3Q12 results. Production will still be up 7% y/y as Libyan barrels have returned whileproduction in Yemen is recovering. In E&P hedging losses are likely to amount to €30m,while we include a €92m exploration charge. The Downstream is likely to have beenimpacted by the weak demand in Europe. We forecast Gas & Power will report EBIT of€39m (vs. €134m in 4Q11). The UBS European composite refining margin was down 38%q/q in 4Q to $4.53/bbl from the exceptional $7.32/bbl in 3Q, although still twice as high as4Q11. We foresee the R&M EBIT at €126m, up 54% y/y. We expect OMV to increase itsdividend to €1.20/share from €1.10/share as the net income for the year is likely to be up bymore than 30%. We expect OMV to update the market on its 2013 outlook and reiterate its medium and longterm guidance. Management suggested that production growth in 2013 was unlikely at the3Q12 results. We expect to get more formal guidance on this at the 4Q results. We assume that production will grow by 1% in 2013.

4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E % change y/y % change q/qProduction (kboe/d) 289 309 309 7.0% 0.0%Clean Earnings (€m) 326 317 374 14.8% 18.1%EPS (€) 1.00 0.97 1.15 14.8% 18.1%DPS (€) 6.50 0.00 6.83 5.0% -Source: UBS estimates, company data


Daniel Ekstein.........................+44-20-7568 8040Analyst


UBS 35

Technip (TECF.PA) Buy, PT (€): 103 Energy

FY Results

Technip demonstrated strong order momentum in the first 9 months of 2012 and we expectthis to continue in 4Q12. We forecast order intake of around €2.9bn, up 31% y/y, aided bytwo large contracts from Mexico and Norway in the Onshore/Offshore division. We forecastgood revenue generation as a result of a strong performance in the offshore, but the lowermargin nature of this business means the overall operating margins will remain flat. Net cashis estimated to fall to €165m from €196m at 3Q due to high capex and a working capitaloutflow. We expect a dividend of €1.75 per share to be announced, up 9% y/y. Key focus: (1) 2013 guidance, particularly in the light of Saipem’s warning; (2) marginprogression (especially in the subsea division); (3) order intake and timing of upcomingcontracts; (4) tendering activity. Guidance: Technip increased its 2012 guidance at 3Q12 but said it will not provide 2013guidance until the FY12 results. Current 2012 guidance is: (1) Group revenue towards €8bn;(2) subsea revenue at least €3.5bn with margin ~15%; (3) onshore/offshore revenues to bearound €4.3bn with margin between 6.5-7%; (4) €500m in capital investments.

4Q11 3Q12 4Q12E y/y q/qRevenue € 2,014 2086 2208 10% 6%EBIT € 208 215 222 7% 3%EPS € 1.35 1.14 1.28 -5% 12%DPS € 1.60 0.00 1.75 9% - Technip is a most preferred stock in the Oil sector on a relative basis within the AlphaPreferences System*.


Amy Wong ................................+44-20-7568 1235Analyst

Casino (CASP.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 69 Food Retailers & Wholesalers

FY Results


Benjamin Peters ....................+44-20-7568 8042Analyst


UBS 36

Kingfisher (KGF.L) Neutral, PT (p): 280 Retail

Q4 Sales

We forecast UK LFL -4%, France -5% and Poland -5% (the reported International figure islikely to be better given it will include Russia). There is no overt Q4 profit number at this stage although the company normally makes a comment on the likely full year outturn. Givenrecent downgrades by us and consensus closer to the £700m level we would not expect manysurprises here. In the UK, Homebase announced -4% for its Sept-Dec quarter and stated it believed it was gaining market share. As such, B&Q is unlikely to be better althoughScrewfix may not be as bad. Gross margin is likely to be broadly flat with sourcing gainsoffset by some promotional activity. In France we assume Brico will remain weak against atough comp, although for Casto we assume only -3%. Poland will be affected by theweakness of the market and potentially also be some price investment to reinvigorate marketshare. Key issues will be moves if any to return B&Q to market share growth, the outlook forthe French macro and potential capacity withdrawal, and the strength of the balance sheet,although we expect that these will be addressed only at the prelims stage. Kingfisher is a least preferred stock in the General Retail sector on a relative basiswithin the Alpha Preferences System*.

Price (p): 280Market Cap.: £6.6bn/€7.6bn1 mth: -1.8% abs.; -5.7% rel.3 mth: -3.1% abs.; -12.5% rel.P/E ‘13E 12.91xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 6.48xP/B ‘13E 1.1xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Andrew Hughes .....................+44-20-7568 1968Analyst

Atos (ATOS.PA) Buy, PT (€): 62 Technology Services

Q4 Results

Atos is due to report on 21 February. We believe a material pick-up from Q3’s underlying 0.2% growth rate is unlikely (UBSe: 0.3%), given the headwinds from the ramp-down of Siemens transition efforts and lower Commerzbank activity levels in Germany, and acontinuing tough environment in Iberia and Netherlands. Guidance for this year is likely tofactor-in a slower H1 as the Siemens effect is felt and new contracts with the Department ofHealth and McGraw-Hill ramp. We expect a 1-2% (ie. slight) growth target for 2013following on from 2012E’s 1%. Notwithstanding a potentially muted topline outlook, the 7-8% 2013 margin target is likely to be repeated (cons. 7.3%), which means earnings expectations will not waver. However,management likely anticipates some questions around the next strategic imperative, and will re-float the idea of a transaction involving Worldline, in which it would retain control, or atthe very least an economic interest. There may also be news forthcoming on the renewal planfor the c.€500m of loss-making contracts inherited from Siemens and which are due to renewin the next 12-24m. Notwithstanding a likely stronger H2 growth rate than H1 in 2013, we see Atos’ valuation asmore interesting now. As Europe’s economy recovers, a return to a more normal marketmultiple seems likely, so we move to a 12.0x (was 10.0x) 2013E NOPAT for IT Services inour SOTP, leaving our HTTS multiple at 14x.


Michael Briest .........................+44-20-7568 8367Analyst


UBS 37

easyJet (EZJ.L) Buy, PT (p): 1000 Airlines

AGM

Price (p): 1002Market Cap.: £4bn/€4.6bn1 mth: 18.2% abs.; 13.4% rel.3 mth: 53.1% abs.; 38.3% rel.P/E ‘13E 12xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 8.74xP/B ‘13E 2.04xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Jarrod Castle, CFA...............+44-20-756 88883Analyst

Mondi (MNDI.L) Neutral, PT (p): 720 Forest Products & Paper

FY Results

On 12 February, Mondi reported FY12 headline EPS range of €0.61-0.65/sh (FY11 €0.70/sh) vs consensus of €0.65/sh and UBSe of €0.67/sh. However, we believe it likely thatrestructuring costs in the industrial bags sector (€0.04/sh) and Nordenia transaction costs(€0.02/sh) would have had some negative impact on the headline earnings. Mondi saysunderlying Q4-12 EBIT is higher than Q3-12 (€135m) and Q4-11 (€132m); in-line with consensus and UBSe. We believe that the KL price increase, previously announced, has been fully instituted and expect Mondi’s outlook on 21 Feb to be more upbeat on the back of planned TL priceincreases for Feb-13, which could translate into even higher prices for KL. We expect a +19%growth in EPS in 2013, mainly coming from the benefits of the acquisitions completed in 2012. We do not see changes to FY12 consensus forecasts, as this was within the trading range.However, there is potential upside risk to consensus FY13 forecasts if the TL price increasesare successful and Mondi’s outlook is positive. We see lacklustre demand for industrial bagsand consumer packaging as a risk.


Nishal Ramloutan, CFA .......+27-11-322 7414Analyst

Dia (DIDA.MC) Sell, PT (€): 4.3 Food

FY Results


Benjamin Peters ....................+44-20-7568 8042Analyst


UBS 38

Informa (INF.L) Buy, PT (p): 480 Publishing UBS Estimates Revenues: £1264m EBITA: £341m EPS: 39.2p

FY Results

Informa will report FY results at 7am UK time on February 21. There is a presentation at9.30am. We forecast revenues of £1264m, very slightly ahead of consensus at £1255m, withEBITA of £341m & EPS of 39.2p, both broadly inline with consensus. After muchrestructuring and investment in new product development over the past couple of years,investors will likely be looking to see whether consensus forecasts for 3-4% org growth and high single digit EPS growth are achieveable in 2013. We believe they are, but do not expectmanagement to talk up consensus forecasts at this stage. In addition, look out for any potential commentary on further cash returns – given their rate of deleveraging, and fewacquisitions recently, we believe they could announce a share buyback (even if a lowerprobability than for Reed), or at the very least higher dividend growth (UBSe FY12 18.5p, and FY13 20.3p, up 10% yoy). After a strong run in Q4, the stock trades at 11.2x 2013Eearnings / 9.4x EBITDA, with an 8.3% FCF yield this year.

Price (p): 491.4Market Cap.: £3bn/€3.4bn1 mth: 4.0% abs.; -0.2% rel.3 mth: 27.6% abs.; 15.3% rel.P/E ‘12E 12.53xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.37xP/B ‘12E 2.19xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alastair Reid ............................+44-20-7568 8011Analyst

Ashmore Group (ASHM.L) Neutral, PT (p): 375 Diversified Financial UBS Estimates Revenues: £160m EPS: 11.5p DPS: 5.33p

H1 Results

The results will be released at 7:00am. We expect Ashmore to report H1-13 basic EPS of 11.5p (down 9% on H1-12 12.7p) and 5.33p DPS (H1-12 4.25p) for the period. The expecteddecline in EPS is mainly due to a decline in revenues driven by lower performance fees at£6m vs £18m in H1-12. Ashmore has already released H1-13 AUM at $71bn, up 4% q-o-q, up 17% y-o-y. We expect Ashmore to report revenues of £160m in H1-13, down 9% y-o-y. We estimate management fees for H1-13 at £150.5m flat yoy. We estimate an operatingmargin of 62% in H1-13 (vs 65% in H1-12, down due to lower performance fees). Emergingmarkets performance has been weak YTD with EMLIP down 6.4% and LCD down 1.1%since 2 Jan 2013. We expect the focus to be on performance issues, retail distributiondevelopment and outflows from Japanese multi-strategy and equities.

Price (p): 367.3Market Cap.: £2.6bn/€3bn1 mth: -2.2% abs.; -6.2% rel.3 mth: 2.6% abs.; -7.4% rel.P/E ‘13E 15.31xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 10.29xP/B ‘13E 4.22xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Arnaud Giblat..........................+44-20-7568 8086Analyst


UBS 39

Ladbrokes (LAD.L) Buy, PT (p): 205 Leisure Goods & Services

FY Results

Given the 9-month results are known, then consensus is looking for 4% EBIT growth in Q4 2012 which given the strong Q4 OTC results from their major competitor William Hill looksconservative. The EBIT number excludes High rollers, which is £27.4m in the first 9-months. We believe the main driver of EBIT growth will be the UK Retail ops due to higher OTC groww win margins, and a much improved performance from machines but there is alsoexpected to be good recovery in Irish and Belgium profits. However this will likely bepartially offset by a sharp reduction in Digital profits and a critical part of the statement willbe whether management have delivered on the roll out of the new online sportsbook and areconfident that they can step up the marketing and growth in 2013. The shares have been verystrong going into results.

FY'11 Act FY'12 UBSe ConsEBITA (ex-HR) 190m 203m 203mAdj. EPS 15.3p 17.9p 17.5pDPS 7.6p 8.6p 8.5p

Price (p): 224.3Market Cap.: £2bn/€2.4bn1 mth: 10.5% abs.; 6.0% rel.3 mth: 17.5% abs.; 6.1% rel.P/E ‘12E 12.5xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.07xP/B ‘12E 4.69xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40


Rhoen-Klinikum (RHKG.DE) Neutral, PT (€): 15.6 Healthcare Providers

Q4 Results

VARA consensus estimates for Q4 and DY12 have come down significantly in recent weeksto the bottom end of the company’s guidance range and UBSe Q4 revenues €734m, adjustedEBITDA €79m are now in line to slightly ahead. Similarly, consensus estimates for 2013have come down to reflect the costs required to restructure the Geissen-Marburg University Hospital and we are broadly in line to slightly ahead. As such we don’t anticipate muchexcitement at the results themselves, rather an update on management’s discussions with strategic shareholders. The next event will be the German cartel Office decision as to whetherprivate German hospitals operator can take its stake in Rhoen-Klinikum to >10% thereby having a blocking stake in the event of any bid or plan to change Rhoen’s Article’s of Association. This is expected by 8-March 2013.

€m UBSe Conse chg UBSe Conse chg UBSe Conse chgSales 734 730 0.5% 2856 2853 0.1% 3010 2984 0.9%EBITDA, adj 78.9 79.1 -0.2% 294.2 294.6 -0.1% 345.2 336.2 2.7%Margin 10.7% 10.8% -8bps 10.3% 10.3% -3bps 11.5% 11.3% 20bpsEBIT, adj 41.4 42 -1.3% 152.9 153.4 -0.3% 200.8 193 4.0%Margin 5.6% 5.8% -11bps 5.4% 5.4% -3bps 6.7% 6.5% 20bpsPBT 33 32.3 2.3% 118.9 118.1 0.7% 162.4 157.5 3.1%PAT (pre minorities) 27.3 27.3 0.0% 97.5 97.5 0.0% 133.1 132.6 0.4%EPS to RHK holders (rep) 0.19 0.19 -2.1% 0.71 0.68 3.2% 0.96 0.93 3.6%DPS 0.45 0.33 38.5% 0.50 0.41 23.5%Source: UBSe, Vara consensus

Q4 12E 2012E 2013E

Rhoen-Klinikum is a least preferred stock in the Bio & MedTech sector on a relativebasis within the Alpha Preferences System*.




UBS 40

Straumann (STMN.S) Neutral, PT (CHF): 114 Medical Products

FY Results

With few signs of dental implant recovery from competitors who have reported so far, for Q4 sales, UBSe are very slightly below VARA consensus at a reported level but we foresee -1.7% organic growth (cons. -0.5%) – see table below – reflecting weaker Europe and Asia Pacific growth rates. On a FY basis we are essentially in line on revenues and slightly ahead at the EBIT level. Aswith Nobel Biocare we anticipate a cautious revenue outlook with an update on restructuringplans which both we and consensus have already factored in a significant (>200bp) pick up inEBIT margin in 2013. €m 2012E 2013ERevenues - UBSe 695.4 698.8Consensus - Vara 694.3 699.4% Difference 0.2% -0.1%EBITDA- UBSe 119.3 152.6Consensus - Vara 125.3 156.9% Difference -4.8% -2.7%EBIT - UBSe 86.6 121.9Consensus - Vara 85.5 122.6% Difference 1.3% -0.6%Net Profit - UBSe 56.2 102.3Consensus - Vara 52.4 97.6% Difference 7.2% 4.8%EPS - UBSe 3.6 6.55Consensus - Vara 3.38 6.31% Difference 6.4% 3.8%Source: UBSe, Vara consensus

Price (CHF): 129Market Cap.: CHF2bn/€1.6bn1 mth: 13.0% abs.; 8.6% rel.3 mth: 23.6% abs.; 10.8% rel.P/E ‘12E 28.49xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 11.45xP/B ‘12E 3.01xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40


Filtrona (FLTR.L) Buy, PT (p): 600 General Industrial Services UBS Estimates Revenues: £660m PBT: £97m EPS: 32.1p DPS: 13.4p

FY Results

We expect revenue of £660m (FY11: £541m), PBT of £97m (£76m), EPS of 32.1p (25.1p)and DPS of 13.4p (10.5p). We expect a strong quarter in Q4. Organic growth in Q3 was 9%after 8% in the prior two quarters. We are looking for group organic revenue growth of 8%.We expect Filters will have continued to perform very strongly in Q4, but Protection &Finishing may be slightly disappointing reflecting tough macro in Q4 in Europe and declinesin the rig count. Overall, we expect strong results, with the prospect of consensus upgrades toFY13 numbers. We will be interested to hear news on the M&A pipeline which has beenquiet in recent months.

Price (p): 565Market Cap.: £1.2bn/€1.3bn1 mth: 2.6% abs.; -1.5% rel.3 mth: -3.6% abs.; -12.9% rel.P/E ‘12E 17.61xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.33xP/B ‘12E 4.88xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alex Hugh, CFA .....................+44-20-7567 5816Analyst


UBS 41

CSR (CSR.L) Neutral, PT (p): 330 Semiconductors

Q4 Results

Revenue performance key from here: We believe revenue growth is the critical element to the CSR story from here. We expect solid revenue for Q4 versus consensus which sits at thebottom of the guided range. Based on our forecasts for Q4 and a weak comparative period in2011, we believe CSR should post solid re-acceleration in Q4 revenue in the core business, ex legacy. We expect CSR to guide Q1 revenues around $200m: We believe CSR is likely to guide Q1revenues to around $200m, slightly below UBSe $203m and $206m that consensus modelsand reflecting steepening declines in the legacy business. We believe the critical period for CSR will come at the Q2 stage where the company will have to show strong q-o-q growth in order to keep the share price momentum going.

Price (p): 389.8Market Cap.: £0.6bn/€0.7bn1 mth: 3.6% abs.; -0.6% rel.3 mth: 12.4% abs.; 1.5% rel.P/E ‘12E 20.65xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 7.21xP/B ‘12E 1.44xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Gareth Jenkins.......................+44-20-7567 3950Analyst

Go-Ahead Group (GOG.L) Neutral, PT (p): 1300 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: £1.33bn EBIT: £44m EPS: 63.2p

H1 Results

Go-Ahead are expected to report H1 results on Thursday 21st February. Following the H1 IMS we do not expect any major surprises. For the headline numbers, we forecast revenues of£1.33bn (£1.13bn in H1 2012), EBIT of £44m (£46.9m in H1 2012) and EPS of 63.2p. Themain driver of the y/y decline is lower profitability of the Southern franchise within the rail business.

Price (p): 1393Market Cap.: £0.6bn/€0.7bn1 mth: 7.8% abs.; 3.5% rel.3 mth: 12.8% abs.; 1.9% rel.P/E ‘13E 10.56xEV/EBITDA ‘13E 4.79xP/B ‘13E -40.74xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alex Brignall ............................+44-20-7568 5674Analyst

Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi (ROVI.MC)Buy, PT (€): 6.5 Biotechnology UBS Estimates Revenues: €205.5m EBIT: €22.9m EPS: €0.41

Q4 Results

Laboratorios Rovi is to report FY 2012 results on 21st February, 2013. We forecast €205,545.7k in Revenues and EBIT of €22,873.7k for FY 2012. We also forecast EPS as€0.41 for the FY 2012.


Guillaume van Renterghem......+44-20-7568 2067 Analyst


UBS 42

Premier Foods (PFD.L) Sell, PT (p): 70.1 Food

Preliminary Results

Price (p): 88.5Market Cap.: €0.2bn1 mth: -29.6% abs.; -32.5% rel.3 mth: 1.4% abs.; -8.4% rel.P/E ‘12E 3.34xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 8.23xP/B ‘12E 0.13xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Alan Erskine ............................+44-20-7568 4395Analyst


UBS 43

Friday, 22 February 2013 Corporate & Economic events Economics: Eurozone Economics

European Commission Winter Forecasts

The European Commission will announce its Winter Forecasts on 22 February. In its previousset of forecasts from autumn, the Commission saw the Spanish general government deficitcoming in at 6% of GDP in 2013.



Final Q4 GDP

German Q4 final GDP numbers along with its components is due and we expect the GDP toremain unchanged from its flash estimates of -0.6% QoQ (0.4% on YoY basis).


Novartis (NOVN.VX) Buy, PT (CHF): 80 Pharmaceuticals

AGM

Price (CHF): 62.9Market Cap.: CHF152.1bn/€123.2bn1 mth: 5.1% abs.; 1.0% rel.3 mth: 10.0% abs.; -1.4% rel.P/E ‘12E 12.78xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 10.08xP/B ‘12E 2.25xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Gbola Amusa, MD, CFA .....+44-20-7568 8012Analyst

A.P.Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKb.CO) Neutral, PT (DKr): 43500 Industrial Transportation UBS Estimates Revenues: US$60.3bn EBITDA: US$12.9bn Net Profit: US$3.85bn

FY Results

We believe Maersk will report profits slightly above guidance but in-line with consensus. We forecast revenue of $60.3bn (cons 59.6bn), EBITDA $12.9bn (12.8bn) and net profit $3.85bn (cons 3.82bn; guidance c3.7bn). We believe margins in container shipping contracted in Q4and the outlook here will be cautious, with 2012 market likely to have grown by only 2.5-3.0%. We believe Maersk’ outlook will be for a similar growth this year, although this doesseem conservative. Overall we expect 2013 guidance will be for net profits to be similar or slightly below 2012levels. We believe this may be slightly disappointing for consensus ($4.1bn), particularly ifthe shortfall is from Oil (where we believe consensus may be too high).

Price (DKr): 44400Market Cap.: DKr192.3bn/€25.8bn1 mth: -3.3% abs.; -4.1% rel.3 mth: 8.2% abs.; -0.2% rel.P/E ‘12E 13.24xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 3.44xP/B ‘12E 0.87xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40



UBS 44

SES (SESFd.PA) Buy, PT (€): 23.5 Broadcasting UBS Estimates Sales: €1,836m EBITDA: €827m Net Income: €569m DPS: €0.97

FY Results

Key figures: Sales €1,836, EBITDA €827m, net income €569m, Dividend €0.97 per share.Consensus expectations are in a very narrow range on SES Global, the average expectation isfor €1,828m of revenues (UBSe at €1,836m) and for an EBITDA margin of 73.8%. Theconsensus is implicitly assuming that SES will not totally meet its +2% organic growthguidance) so there should not be any major surprise when SES will report its FY2012 figures. Outlook: Newsflow is expected to be rather positive. Organic growth is expected to re-accelerate in Q2 as the comps will become more favourable (Analog switch-off was in April 2012). We also expect more newsflow around 03B. The only major negative we expect isactually a likely delay (of a few months) for the launch of SES-6 (due to the issues around the ILS/Proton launcher, affecting Eutelsat-3D’s launch as well).

Price (€): 23Market Cap.: €9.2bn1 mth: 6.0% abs.; 5.4% rel.3 mth: 6.1% abs.; -2.1% rel.P/E ‘12E 16.16xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 9.9xP/B ‘12E 3.34xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Julie de Vigneral.....................+33-14-888 33 60Analyst

Gecina (GFCP.PA) Sell, PT (€): 70 Real Estate UBS Estimates NAV: €100.4 EPS: €4.96 DPS: €4.4

FY Results

We expect recurring income per share of €4.96 vs. €5.05 YoY (in line with guidance) drivenby dilutive disposals (€347m target for Q4), partially offset by lower overheads (€10msavings expected in FY12) and lower finance costs (-6% YoY). Despite the fall in earnings,we expect Gecina to announce flat DPS of €4.4 vs. 2011. We forecast capital values to bebroadly flat in H212, except for offices (-1%) and logistics (-5.0%). We believe this will lead to a NAV/ps of €100.4 (+2% vs H112) driven largely by retained earnings. We believe pre-letting activity of the Beaugrenelle shopping centre (80%, Q312) and occupancy rate of theoffice portfolio (91.2% in Q312 vs. 94.3% in YE11) will be of interest. Event effect: Neutral. The shares look broadly fully valued for the dividend growth profile we expect. We still expect the change in shareholder register be the main downside to shares andit is unlikely the company will comment on this at the results.


Kristian Bandy........................+44-20-7568 4416Analyst


UBS 45

Valeo (VLOF.PA) Neutral, PT (€): 38 Auto Parts & Tires

FY Results

Valeo will publish its FY results on 22 February (before market hours). Consensus expects‘12 sales of €11.7bn, EBIT of €700m, net debt of €510m and DPS of €1.4. Consensus is inline with the company guidance. We think investors will look at how the R&D capitalisationrate is trending. We see very limited risk to the dividend for ‘12E (paid ‘13E) and for ‘13E(paid ‘14E), the latter being supported by the disposal of the access mechanism. We confirmour more optimistic view with a ‘12 DPS of €1.6 (vs consensus: €1.41) or 4.2% yield. We think investors will also focus on the ‘13 guidance and the underlying market outlook.Consensus expects ‘13 sales of €11.5bn, EBIT of €698m, net debt of €254m. We stand 8%below consensus EBIT to reflect our more cautious view on European production. Management will host a conference call (details: TBC).


David Lesne .............................+44-20-7567 5815Analyst

Air France - KLM (AIRF.PA) Buy, PT (€): 9.8 Airlines UBS Estimates Sales: €25,748m EBIT: -€153m Net Income: -€713m

FY Results

We are towards the top end of consensus and expect sales to come in at €25,748m (Consensus €25,529m, Consensus range €25,291m to €25,748m), Ebit of -€153m (Consensus -€304m, Consensus range -€151m to -€449m), net income of -€713m (Consensus -€990m, Consensus range -€561m to -€1,320m). We think the yield for the full year will be 3.5% but potentially euro strength might weigh in given Q4 euro strength. Nevertheless, the market is likely tofocus on outlook and progress with the restructuring program “Transformation 15” rather thanthe 2012 results. Focus will be on number of acceptances of the voluntary retrenchment program and cost savings achieved.

Price (€): 8.264Market Cap.: €2.5bn1 mth: 6.4% abs.; 5.8% rel.3 mth: 13.9% abs.; 5.0% rel.P/E ‘12E -3.48xEV/EBITDA ‘12E 7.97xP/B ‘12E 1.14xPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

Jarrod Castle, CFA...............+44-20-756 88883Analyst

Aker ASA (AKER.OL) Neutral, PT (NKr): 199 Industrial, Diversified UBS Estimates DPS: NKr11.50

FY Results

Aker ASA is a holding company. We forecast net DPS of NKr11.50 (yield of 5.04%).

Price (NKr): 230Market Cap.: NKr16.6bn/€2.3bn1 mth: 4.5% abs.; 1.6% rel.3 mth: 11.1% abs.; 1.7% rel.P/E ‘12E NAEV/EBITDA ‘12E NAP/B ‘12E NAPrice Date: 13 Feb 2013 21:40

David Hallden..............................+46-8-453 7330Analyst


UBS 46

John Lewis Retail

Weekly Sales Data

John Lewis (private retailer) will release sales data for the previous week’s trading. Thisweekly data point has some read-through for both Food and Non Food retailers in the UK.

Andrew Hughes ..................... +44 20 7568 1968Analyst


UBS 47

U.S. / Week of 18 - 22 February Corporate events – alphabetical order Note: this list includes stocks covered by UBS only.



None



Access Midstream Partners LP Earnings Release Pipelines

Actavis Inc. Earnings Release Pharmaceuticals

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc. Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

Analog Devices Inc. Earnings Release Semiconductors

Bruker Corp Earnings Release Biotechnology

Cameco Corporation Earnings Release Mining

Cobalt International Energy Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Dell Inc. Earnings Release Computers

Education Realty Trust, Inc. Earnings Release Real Estate

Express Scripts Inc. Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

FreightCar America Earnings Release Heavy Machinery

Greenlight Capital Re Ltd Earnings Release Insurance, Property & Casualty

Healthsouth Corp Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

ITC Holdings Corp Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Marriott International, Inc. Earnings Release Lodging

Medtronic, Inc. Earnings Release Advanced Medical Devices

Nabors Industries Earnings Release Oil Drilling, Equipment & Services

Newfield Exploration Co. Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

NiSource Inc. Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Northeast Utilities Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Omnicare Inc. Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

QEP Resources Inc. Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Terex Corporation Earnings Release Heavy Machinery

Tronox Limited Earnings Release Chemicals, Commodity

Westlake Chemical Corp Earnings Release Chemicals, Commodity

Windstream Corporation Earnings Release Fixed-Line Communications


UBS 48

Wednesday, 20 February 2013


Ameren Corp. Earnings Release Electric Utilities

American Railcar Industries Earnings Release Heavy Machinery

Avista Corp Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Concho Resources Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Dentsply International Earnings Release Medical Supplies

Devon Energy Corporation Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

DISH Network Corp. Earnings Release Broadcasting

DTE Energy Co. Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Energy Transfer Equity L.P. Earnings Release Pipelines

Energy Transfer Partners LP Earnings Release Pipelines

Equity One Inc. Earnings Release Real Estate

Fluor Corporation Earnings Release Heavy Construction

Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. Earnings Release Real Estate

KBR, Inc. Earnings Release Heavy Construction

MedAssets, Inc. Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

MGM Resorts International Earnings Release Casinos

Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation Earnings Release Aluminum

Oasis Petroleum Inc Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

PVR Partners Earnings Release Coal

Questar Corp Earnings Release Gas Utilities

Regency Energy Partners LP Earnings Release Pipelines

Rubicon Technology Inc. Earnings Release Semiconductors

SM Energy Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Solazyme Earnings Release Chemicals, Specialty

Sonic Automotive Inc. Earnings Release Auto Parts

STAG Industrial Inc Earnings Release Real Estate

Sunoco Logistics Partners Earnings Release Pipelines

Susser Petroleum Partners LP Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

The Boston Beer Co. Earnings Release Distillers & Brewers

Toll Brothers Earnings Release Home Construction

Trinity Industries Earnings Release Land Transportation Equipment

Vantiv Earnings Release Diversified Technology Services

Walter Energy Inc Earnings Release Coal

Williams Cos Inc. Earnings Release Pipelines


UBS 49

Thursday, 21 February 2013


American International Group Earnings Release Insurance, Full-Line

AMN Healthcare Services Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

Aruba Networks, Inc. Earnings Release Communications Technology

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Earnings Release Biotechnology

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Carlyle Group LP Earnings Release Diversified Financial

Catamaran Corp. Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

Chesapeake Energy Corp. Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Community Health Systems Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

CubeSmart Earnings Release Real Estate

Dana Holding Corp Earnings Release Auto Parts

Denbury Resources Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Endo Health Solutions Earnings Release Pharmaceuticals

ENSCO PLC Earnings Release Oil Drilling, Equipment & Services

Extra Space Storage Inc. Earnings Release Real Estate

Flowserve Corp. Earnings Release Industrial, Diversified

Frontier Communications Corp Earnings Release Fixed-Line Communications

H.J. Heinz Company Earnings Release Food Products

HeartWare International Inc. Earnings Release Advanced Medical Devices

Hewlett-Packard Earnings Release Computers

Holly Energy Partners, L.P. Earnings Release Pipelines

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. Earnings Release Lodging

Idenix Pharmaceuticals Earnings Release Biotechnology

Infoblox Inc. Earnings Release Communications Technology

InterMune Earnings Release Biotechnology

Intuit Inc. Earnings Release Software

Kindred Healthcare Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

Life Time Fitness, Inc. Earnings Release Retailers, Broadline

LINN Energy, LLC Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. Earnings Release Semiconductors

Mohawk Industries, Inc. Earnings Release Building Materials

Monster Beverage Corp. Earnings Release Soft Drinks

Nevsun Resources Ltd. Earnings Release Mining

Newmont Mining Corp. Earnings Release Precious Metals

Nordstrom Inc. Earnings Release Retailers, Broadline

OfficeMax Incorporated Earnings Release Retailers, Broadline

ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Earnings Release Biotechnology

Patterson Cos Inc Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

PG&E Corporation Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Public Service Enterprise Group Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Public Storage, Inc. Earnings Release Real Estate

Quanta Services Earnings Release Heavy Construction

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Earnings Release Steel

Safeway, Inc. Earnings Release Food Retailers & Wholesalers


UBS 50

SCANA Corp. Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Select Medical Holdings Earnings Release Healthcare Providers

Sourcefire Inc Earnings Release Software

Southwestern Energy Company Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Teekay LNG Partners LP Earnings Release Marine Transport

Teekay Offshore Partners Earnings Release Marine Transport

Tutor Perini Corp. Earnings Release Heavy Construction

Friday, 22 February 2013


Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Earnings Release Retailers, Specialty

Agrium Inc. Earnings Release Chemicals, Specialty

Charter Communications Inc. Earnings Release Broadcasting

Enerplus Corp Earnings Release Oil Companies, Secondary

Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. Earnings Release Advertising

Pinnacle West Capital Co. Earnings Release Electric Utilities

Warner Chilcott Earnings Release Pharmaceuticals


UBS 51

Weeks of 25 February - 1 March (by market cap) Corporate events – by market cap (descending) Monday, 25 February 2013


Imperial Tobacco Investor Day Tobacco

Kone Shareholders Meeting Industrial, Diversified

Associated British Foods Trading Statement Food

Key Call: Pearson Preliminary Results Publishing

Persimmon FY Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Imagination Technologies Analyst Meeting Semiconductors

Kingspan Q4 Results Building Materials

Bovis Homes Preliminary Results Home Construction & Furnishings

PostNL Q4 Results Industrial Transportation

Market Holidays: Kuwait



BASF SE FY Results Chemicals


Vivendi FY Results Broadcasting

Key Call: Fresenius SE & Co KGaA FY Results Healthcare Providers

Fresenius Medical Care FY Results Healthcare Providers

CRH FY Results Building Materials

Whitbread Trading Statement Leisure Goods & Services

GKN Preliminary Results Auto Parts & Tires

Mediobanca H1 Results Banks

Croda International FY Results Chemicals

William Demant Q4 Results Medical Products

SEB Q4 Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Midcap Key Call: Teleperformance FY Results General Industrial Services

Georg Fischer FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Elementis PLC Preliminary Results Chemicals

BKW AG Preliminary Results Electric Utilities

Temenos FY Results Software

Wienerberger FY Results Building Materials

Redrow Group H1 Results Home Construction & Furnishings



UBS 52



Key Call: Anheuser-Busch InBev Q4 Results Beverage

Key Call: EADS FY Results Aerospace

Centrica Preliminary Results Gas Utilities

Holcim Q4 Results Building Materials

Endesa Q4 Results Electric Utilities

Alstom Analyst Day Industrial, Diversified

Jeronimo Martins FY Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Amadeus IT Group SA Q4 Results Industrial, Diversified

UCB Q4 Results Pharmaceuticals

Telefónica Deutschland Holding AG FY Results Wireless Communications

Petrofac Preliminary Results Energy

Bouygues FY Results Wireless Communications

DE Master Blenders 1753 H1 Results Food

Weir Preliminary Results Industrial, Diversified

Midcap Key Call: ITV plc FY Results Broadcasting

Bunzl FY Results General Industrial Services

Swiss Life FY Results Insurance

Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC Preliminary Results Real Estate

EDP Renovaveis Q4 Results Electric Utilities

Prysmian Spa FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Barratt Developments H1 Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Salzgitter AG Preliminary Results Mining & Metals

SEGRO FY Results Real Estate

Henderson Group FY Results Diversified Financial

Carillion Preliminary Results Heavy Construction

Ipsos Q4 Results Advertising

Melia Hotels FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Temenos Analyst & Investor Day Software

Interserve Preliminary Results Heavy Construction

Partner Communications FY Results Wireless Communications


UBS 53



BAT UK Preliminary Results Tobacco

Bayer FY Results Pharmaceuticals

Telefonica Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

RBS Group Q4 Results Banks

Deutsche Telekom FY Results Fixed-Line Communications

GDF Suez FY Results Gas Utilities

Volvo B Investor Day Industrial Transportation

Repsol FY Results Energy

Reed Elsevier plc FY Results Publishing

Reed Elsevier NV FY Results Publishing

Luxottica FY Results Textiles & Apparel

Essilor International Q4 Results Medical Products

Seadrill Preliminary Results Energy

Snam FY Results Gas Utilities

Ahold Q4 Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Iliad FY Sales Fixed-Line Communications

Grifols Q4 Results Healthcare Providers

Aeroports de Paris FY Results Industrial Transportation

Capita PLC FY Results General Industrial Services

ACS Q4 Results Heavy Construction

Red Electrica de España FY Results Electric Utilities

Thales FY Results Aerospace

ProSiebenSat1 FY Results Broadcasting

Arkema FY Results Chemicals

Veolia Environnement FY Results Water Utilities

Midcap Key Call: International Airlines Group FY Results Airlines

Kazakhmys Plc Trading Statement Mining & Metals

Hochtief FY Results Heavy Construction

Direct Line Insurance Group plc Preliminary Results Insurance

Portugal Telecom FY Results Fixed-Line Communications

CGG Veritas FY Results Energy

Sky Deutschland AG FY Results Entertainment

OTE Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Hellenic Petroleum Q4 Results Energy

St James’s Place Preliminary Results Insurance

Derwent London plc Preliminary Results Real Estate

Man Group Plc FY Results Diversified Financial

Telekom Austria Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Midcap Key Call: Ebro Foods Q4 Results Food

Capco Preliminary Results Real Estate

Catalana Occidente Q4 Results Insurance

Viscofan Q4 Results Food

Allreal FY Results Real Estate


UBS 54

Novozymes A/S AGM Chemicals

Midcap Key Call: Hays H1 Results General Industrial Services

Indra FY Results Advanced Industrial Equipment

Howden Joinery Group Plc Preliminary Results General Industrial Services

National Express FY Results Industrial Transportation

Cable & Wireless Communications Shareholders Meeting Fixed-Line Communications

Algeta ASA Q4 Results Biotechnology

Antena 3 Television, S.A Q4 Results Broadcasting

Aixtron SE FY Results Semiconductors

Bankia Q4 Results Banks

Saras Q4 & Preliminary Results Energy

Kudelski FY Results Software

Market Holidays: Taiwan Friday, 1 March 2013


Lloyds Banking Group Preliminary Results Banks

Old Mutual Plc Preliminary Results Insurance

Belgacom Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Vopak FY Results Industrial Transportation

Midcap Key Call: Andritz FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

Sage Group Shareholders Meeting Software

Hammerson FY Results Real Estate

William Hill Preliminary Results Leisure Goods & Services

PSP Swiss Property FY Results Real Estate

Taylor Wimpey Preliminary Results Home Construction & Furnishings

UBM Preliminary Results Publishing

Rightmove Preliminary Results Technology Services

Stagecoach Holdings Trading Statement Consumer Services

Cargotec Preliminary Results Industrial, Diversified

Berendsen Preliminary Results General Industrial Services

BBA Aviation Preliminary Results Industrial Transportation

Laird Plc Preliminary Results Communications Technology

alstria office REIT Q4 Results Real Estate



UBS 55

Weeks of 25 February - 1 March (alphabetical) Corporate events – in alphabetical order Monday, 25 February 2013


Associated British Foods Trading Statement Food

Bovis Homes Preliminary Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Imagination Technologies Analyst Meeting Semiconductors


Kingspan Q4 Results Building Materials

Kone Shareholders Meeting Industrial, Diversified

Key Call: Pearson Preliminary Results Publishing

Persimmon FY Results Home Construction & Furnishings

PostNL Q4 Results Industrial Transportation




BASF SE FY Results Chemicals

BKW AG Preliminary Results Electric Utilities

CRH FY Results Building Materials

Croda International FY Results Chemicals

Elementis PLC Preliminary Results Chemicals

Fresenius Medical Care FY Results Healthcare Providers

Key Call: Fresenius SE & Co KGaA FY Results Healthcare Providers

Georg Fischer FY Results Industrial, Diversified

GKN Preliminary Results Auto Parts & Tires


Mediobanca H1 Results Banks

Redrow Group H1 Results Home Construction & Furnishings

SEB Q4 Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Midcap Key Call: Teleperformance FY Results General Industrial Services

Temenos FY Results Software

Vivendi FY Results Broadcasting

Whitbread Trading Statement Leisure Goods & Services

Wienerberger FY Results Building Materials

William Demant Q4 Results Medical Products



UBS 56



Alstom Analyst Day Industrial, Diversified

Amadeus IT Group SA Q4 Results Industrial, Diversified

Key Call: Anheuser-Busch InBev Q4 Results Beverage

Barratt Developments H1 Results Home Construction & Furnishings

Bouygues FY Results Wireless Communications

Bunzl FY Results General Industrial Services

Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC Preliminary Results Real Estate

Carillion Preliminary Results Heavy Construction

Centrica Preliminary Results Gas Utilities

DE Master Blenders 1753 H1 Results Food

Key Call: EADS FY Results Aerospace

EDP Renovaveis Q4 Results Electric Utilities

Endesa Q4 Results Electric Utilities

Henderson Group FY Results Diversified Financial

Holcim Q4 Results Building Materials

Interserve Preliminary Results Heavy Construction

Ipsos Q4 Results Advertising

Midcap Key Call: ITV plc FY Results Broadcasting

Jeronimo Martins FY Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Melia Hotels FY Results Leisure Goods & Services

Partner Communications FY Results Wireless Communications

Petrofac Preliminary Results Energy

Prysmian Spa FY Results Industrial, Diversified

Salzgitter AG Preliminary Results Mining & Metals

SEGRO FY Results Real Estate

Swiss Life FY Results Insurance

Telefónica Deutschland Holding AG FY Results Wireless Communications

Temenos Analyst & Investor Day Software

UCB Q4 Results Pharmaceuticals

Weir Preliminary Results Industrial, Diversified


UBS 57



ACS Q4 Results Heavy Construction

Aeroports de Paris FY Results Industrial Transportation

Ahold Q4 Results Food Retailers & Wholesalers

Aixtron SE FY Results Semiconductors

Algeta ASA Q4 Results Biotechnology

Allreal FY Results Real Estate

Antena 3 Television, S.A Q4 Results Broadcasting

Arkema FY Results Chemicals

Bankia Q4 Results Banks

BAT UK Preliminary Results Tobacco

Bayer FY Results Pharmaceuticals

Cable & Wireless Communications Shareholders Meeting Fixed-Line Communications

Capco Preliminary Results Real Estate

Capita PLC FY Results General Industrial Services

Catalana Occidente Q4 Results Insurance

CGG Veritas FY Results Energy

Derwent London plc Preliminary Results Real Estate

Deutsche Telekom FY Results Fixed-Line Communications

Direct Line Insurance Group plc Preliminary Results Insurance

Midcap Key Call: Ebro Foods Q4 Results Food

Essilor International Q4 Results Medical Products

GDF Suez FY Results Gas Utilities

Grifols Q4 Results Healthcare Providers

Midcap Key Call: Hays H1 Results General Industrial Services

Hellenic Petroleum Q4 Results Energy

Hochtief FY Results Heavy Construction

Howden Joinery Group Plc Preliminary Results General Industrial Services

Iliad FY Sales Fixed-Line Communications

Indra FY Results Advanced Industrial Equipment

Midcap Key Call: International Airlines Group FY Results Airlines

Kazakhmys Plc Trading Statement Mining & Metals

Kudelski FY Results Software

Luxottica FY Results Textiles & Apparel

Man Group Plc FY Results Diversified Financial

National Express FY Results Industrial Transportation

Novozymes A/S AGM Chemicals

OTE Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Portugal Telecom FY Results Fixed-Line Communications

ProSiebenSat1 FY Results Broadcasting

RBS Group Q4 Results Banks

Red Electrica de España FY Results Electric Utilities

Reed Elsevier NV FY Results Publishing

Reed Elsevier plc FY Results Publishing


UBS 58

Repsol FY Results Energy

Saras Q4 & Preliminary Results Energy

Seadrill Preliminary Results Energy

Sky Deutschland AG FY Results Entertainment

Snam FY Results Gas Utilities

St James’s Place Preliminary Results Insurance

Telefonica Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Telekom Austria Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Thales FY Results Aerospace

Veolia Environnement FY Results Water Utilities

Viscofan Q4 Results Food

Volvo B Investor Day Industrial Transportation

Market Holidays: Taiwan Friday, 1 March 2013


alstria office REIT Q4 Results Real Estate

Midcap Key Call: Andritz FY Results Electric Components & Equipment

BBA Aviation Preliminary Results Industrial Transportation

Belgacom Q4 Results Fixed-Line Communications

Berendsen Preliminary Results General Industrial Services

Cargotec Preliminary Results Industrial, Diversified

Hammerson FY Results Real Estate


Laird Plc Preliminary Results Communications Technology

Lloyds Banking Group Preliminary Results Banks

Old Mutual Plc Preliminary Results Insurance

PSP Swiss Property FY Results Real Estate

Rightmove Preliminary Results Technology Services

Sage Group Shareholders Meeting Software

Stagecoach Holdings Trading Statement Consumer Services

Taylor Wimpey Preliminary Results Home Construction & Furnishings

UBM Preliminary Results Publishing

Vopak FY Results Industrial Transportation

William Hill Preliminary Results Leisure Goods & Services


UBS 59

Key Global Forecasts Key Global Forecasts

2013E 2013E 2014E

Unit 2012E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

GDP

Eurozone % -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9

Switzerland % 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3

UK % 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 1.2

US % 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.9 2.3 3.0

China % 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.2 7.7 8.0 8.0

World % 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.5

Base Rate

Eurozone % 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

UK % 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

US % 0.125 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25

Inflation (CPI)

Eurozone % 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.8

Switzerland % -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 1.1

UK % 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8

US % 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.4

Unemployment

Eurozone % 11.3 11.8 11.1

UK % 4.8 5.1 5.3

US % 8.1 7.7 7.0


UBS 60

2013E 2013E 2014E

Unit 2012E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Industrial Production

Eurozone % -2.9 -0.5 2.2

UK % -2.5 0.1 2.0

US % 3.7 4.2 6.0

Currencies

EUR/USD 1.33 (spot) 1.20 1.23 (av.) 1.18 (av.)

GBP/USD 1.55 (spot) 1.56 1.56 (av.) 1.5 (av.)

EUR/GBP 0.86 (spot) 0.77 0.79 (av.) 0.78 (av.)

USD/JPY 93.39 (spot) 85.00 81.5 (av.) 87.5 (av.)

USD/CHF 0.92 (spot) 1.00 0.98 (av.) 1.02 (av.)

EUR/CHF 1.23 (spot) 1.20 1.2 (av.) 1.2 (av.)

Commodities

WTI $/bl 96.94 (spot) 89 92 90 89 90 (av.) 92 (av.)

Gold $/troy oz 1647 (spot) 1850 1930 1920 1890 1801 (av.) 1700 (av.)

Copper LME $c/lb 373.53 (spot) 370 350 330 310 357 (av.) 265 (av.)

Index Targets

DJ Stoxx 600 290 Source: UBS Economics


UBS 61

Forthcoming Bond Supply Calendar Date Day Europe UK US/Canada Japan

18-Feb-13 Monday France to Sell Bills (BTF) 1-Year Bills

19-Feb-13 Tuesday Germany to Sell Add’l EU5 Bln 10-Year Notes

U.S. Fed to Purchase USD1.25-1.75 Bln Notes U.S. to Sell 3-Month Bills U.S. to Sell 6-Month Bills

5-Year Bonds

20-Feb-13 Wednesday U.S. Fed to Purchase USD2.75-3.50 Bln Notes

U.S. to Sell 4-Week Bills Canada to Sell 30-Year Real Return Bonds

21-Feb-13 Thursday France to Sell Bonds / Notes GBP2.25 Bln 1.75% 2022 Bonds

U.S. Fed to Purchase USD3.00-3.75 Bln Notes U.S. to Sell 30-Year TIPS

3-Month Bills 20-Year Bonds

22-Feb-13 Friday Bills U.S. Fed to Purchase USD1.25-1.75 Bln Notes

Source: Bloomberg

Last trade dates

Date Description

18-Feb-13 Euribor 3m Eurodollar 3m Euroyen 3m

20-Feb-13 Sterling 90 day Canada 10Y Bond

Source: Bloomberg

Option expiry dates

Date Description

18-Feb-13 Euribor 3m

20-Feb-13 Sterling 90 day

21-Feb-13 Long Gilt

22-Feb-13

30Y US Treasury Bond 10Y US Treasury Note 5Y US Treasury Note Euro Bund Japan 10Y Bond

Source: Bloomberg


UBS 62

Macroeconomic Events Saturday, 16 February 2013

Country Indicator Time(GMT) UBS forecast Previous Consensus

Eurozone G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Data Due: 15-16 Feb)

Source: Bloomberg, UBS

Sunday, 17 February 2013


Cyprus Cyprus presidential elections - 1st round




UK Rightmove House Prices (Feb) m/m 0.2%

UK Rightmove House Prices (Feb) y/y 2.4%

Eurozone EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels 08:30

Eurozone Current Account nsa (Dec) EUR bn 09:00 19.8

Eurozone ECB Current Account sa (Dec) EUR bn 09:00 14.8




United States Weekly ICSC Store Sales (Feb 15) w/w 12:45 na -2.5% na

United States Redbook Store Sales (Feb 15) m/m 13:55 na 1.1% na

United States Housing Market Index (Feb) index 15:00 na 47 48

Switzerland SNB President T. Jordan Speech in Zurich 17:15

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (Jan) m/m 08:30 -0.6% 0.3%

Sweden CPI - Headline Rate (Jan) y/y 08:30 0.3% -0.1%

Sweden SW CPI - CPIF (Jan) y/y 08:30 1.0%

Sweden CPI Level (Jan) 08:30 312.7 314.6

Sweden Unemployment Rate (Jan) % 08:30 8.2% 7.4%

Sweden Unemployment Rate sa (Jan) % 08:30 7.9% 7.8%

Spain Trade Balance (Dec) EUR mn -1407

Norway Norway Consumer Confidence (Q1) 05:30 27.6 25.4

Israel Inflation Forecast (Feb) % 2.0%

Germany Zew Survey (Current Situation) (Feb) 10:00 7.1

Germany ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Feb) 10:00 31.5

Eurozone EU27 New Car Registrations (Jan) % 07:00 -16.3%

Eurozone Construction Output sa (Dec) m/m 10:00 -0.4%

Eurozone Construction Output wda (Dec) y/y 10:00 -4.7%

Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Feb) 10:00 31.2



UBS 63



United States Architecture Billings Index (Jan) index na na na

United States Producer Price Index (Jan) m/m 13:30 na -0.2% 0.4%

United States Core PPI (Jan) m/m 13:30 na 0.1% 0.2%

United States Housing Starts (Jan) lvl 13:30 na 954 k 925 k

United States FOMC Minutes (Jan 29-30 Meeting) na na na

UK Bank of England Minutes (Rates) 09:30 9-0

UK Bank of England Minutes (QE) 09:30 8-1

UK Claimant Count Rate (Jan) % 09:30 4.8% 4.8%

UK Jobless Claims Change (Jan) Thousand 09:30 5.0 -12.1

UK Average Weekly Earnings (Dec) 3m/y/y 09:30 1.3% 1.5%

UK Weekly Earnings exBonus (Dec) 3m/y/y 09:30 1.3% 1.4%

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Dec) % 09:30 7.7% 7.7%

UK Employment Change (3M/3M) (Dec) Thousand 09:30 90.0

Sweden Total Number of Employees (Jan) y/y 08:30 1.1% 0.9%

Italy Industrial Orders sa (Dec) m/m 09:00 -0.5%

Italy Industrial Orders nsa (Dec) y/y 09:00 -6.7%

Italy Industrial sales sa (Dec) m/m 09:00 -0.2%

Italy Industrial sales nsa (Dec) y/y 09:00 -5.4%

Germany Producer Prices (Jan) m/m 07:00 -0.3%

Germany Producer Prices (Jan) y/y 07:00 1.5%

Germany Consumer Price Index (Final) (Jan) m/m 07:00 -0.5% 0.9% -0.5%

Germany Consumer Price Index (Final) (Jan) y/y 07:00 1.7% 2.1% 1.7%

Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (Final) (Jan) m/m 07:00 -0.7% 0.9% -0.7%

Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (Final) (Jan) y/y 07:00 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%

France Own-Company Production Outlook (Feb) 07:45 -15.0

France Production Outlook Indicator (Feb) 07:45 -36.0

France Business Confidence Indicator (Feb) 07:45 86.0

France CPI - EU Harmonised (Jan) m/m 07:45 0.0% 0.4%

France CPI - EU Harmonised (Jan) y/y 07:45 1.9% 1.5%

France Consumer Price Index (Jan) m/m 07:45 0.1% 0.3%

France Consumer Price Index (Jan) y/y 07:45 1.8% 1.3%

France CPI Ex Tobacco Index (Jan) 07:45 125.0

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Provisional) (Feb) 15:00 -23.9



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United States Jobless Claims (Feb 15) lvl 13:30 na na na

United States Consumer Price Index (Jan) m/m 13:30 na 0.0% 0.1%

United States Core CPI (Jan) m/m 13:30 na 0.1% 0.2%

United States Markit “flash” PMI (Feb) index 14:58 na na na

United States Existing Home Sales (Feb) lvl 15:00 na 4.94 mil 4.91 mil

United States Leading Economic Indicators (Jan) m/m 15:00 na 0.5% 0.2%

United States Philadelphia Fed (Feb) index 15:00 na -5.8 1.5

UK Public Finances (PSNCR) (Jan) GBP bn 09:30 -36.0 1.3

UK PSNB ex Interventions (Jan) GBP bn 09:30 6.3 -15.4

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jan) GBP bn 09:30 8.3 -13.2

UK CBI Trends Total Orders (Feb) 11:00 -20.0

UK CBI Trends Selling Prices (Feb) 11:00 21.0

Switzerland Trade balance (Jan) CHF mn 07:00 1003

Switzerland Real Exports (Jan) y/y 07:00 -13.0%

Switzerland Real Imports (Jan) y/y 07:00 -4.1%

Switzerland SNB issues statistical monthly bulletin 08:00

Switzerland Money Supply M0 (Jan) y/y 08:00 53.8% 51.3%

Switzerland Money Supply M3 (Jan) y/y 08:00 9.6% 9.8%

Switzerland Publication of monthly SNB banking statistics 08:00

Sweden Bloomberg Economic Survey (Feb) 08:45

Norway Bloomberg Economic Survey (Feb) 08:50

Netherlands Consumer Confidence (sa) (Feb) 08:30 -35.0

Netherlands Unemployment Rate (sa) (Jan) % 08:30 7.2%

Netherlands House Price Index (Jan) m/m 08:30 -0.4%

Netherlands House Price Index (Jan) y/y 08:30 -6.3%

Germany PMI Manufacturing (Provisional) (Feb) 08:30 51.0 49.8

Germany PMI Services (Provisional) (Feb) 08:30 55.3 55.7

France PMI Manufacturing (Provisional) (Feb) 08:00 44.4 42.9

France PMI Services (Provisional) (Feb) 08:00 43.3 43.6

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Provisional) (Feb) 09:00 48.9 47.9

Eurozone PMI Services (Provisional) (Feb) 09:00 48.2 48.6

Eurozone PMI Composite (Provisional) (Feb) 09:00 49.5 48.6



UBS 65

Friday, 22 February 2013


Sweden Consumer Confidence (Feb) 08:15 -0.7 -2.9

Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Feb) 08:15 91.6 89.4

Sweden Manufacturing Confidence sa (Feb) 08:15 -14 -18.0

Netherlands Consumer Spending (Dec) y/y 08:30 -3.0%

Netherlands Producer Confidence (Feb) 08:30 -5.6

Italy CPI (NIC including tobacco) (Final) (Jan) m/m 09:00 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Italy CPI (NIC including tobacco) (Final) (Jan) y/y 09:00 2.2% 2.3% 2.2%

Italy CPI - EU Harmonized (Final) (Jan) m/m 09:00 -2.0% 0.3% -2.0%

Italy CPI - EU Harmonized (Final) (Jan) y/y 09:00 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%

Italy Consumer Confidence Industrial sa (Feb) 10:00 84.6

Italy Retail sales sa (Dec) m/m 11:00 -0.4%

Italy Retail sales (Dec) y/y 11:00 -3.1%

Germany GDP sa (Final) (Q4) q/q 07:00 -0.6% 0.2% -0.6%

Germany GDP wda (Final) (Q4) y/y 07:00 0.4% 0.9% 0.4%

Germany GDP nsa (Final) (Q4) y/y 07:00 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Germany Domestic Demand (Q4) q/q 07:00 0.0%

Germany Exports (Q4) q/q 07:00 1.4%

Germany Capital Investment (Q4) q/q 07:00 0.2%

Germany Government Spending (Q4) q/q 07:00 0.4%

Germany Construction Investment (Q4) q/q 07:00 1.5%

Germany Imports (Q4) q/q 07:00 1.0%

Germany Private Consumption (Q4) q/q 07:00 0.3%

Germany IFO - Business Climate (Feb) 09:00 104.2

Germany IFO - Current Assessment (Feb) 09:00 108.0

Germany IFO - Expectations (Feb) 09:00 100.5

Eurozone EU Issues Winter Economic Forecasts in Brussels 10:00

Eurozone European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Table) 10:00



UBS 66

Political and Central Bank Events Saturday 16 February 2013

Country Event Time (GMT)

US Fed’s Dudley to Speak at Inauguration of New College President 17:30

Global G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

Source: Bloomberg

Sunday 17 February 2013


Cyprus Cyprus Presidential Elections

Source: Bloomberg

Monday 18 February 2013


Japan BOJ Minutes for Meeting on Jan. 21-22 23:50

Germany Chancellor Merkel to Address Chamber of Commerce in Mainz 16:00

Eurozone EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels 08:30

Eurozone Van Rompuy Speaks to EU Parliament on EU Budget Proposal 13:00

Eurozone ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender 14:30

Eurozone ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Brussels at Quarterly Hearing on ECB 14:30

Eurozone EU’s Ashton Meets Russian, Norwegian, Icelandic Officials 16:00

Eurozone ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Brussels at Quarterly ESRB Hearing 16:30

Eurozone European Union Competitiveness Council Meeting

Austria ECB’s Nowotny Briefs Journalists in Vienna 09:00

Source: Bloomberg

Tuesday 19 February 2013


US New York Holds Election For 31st Council District

Greece French President Francois Hollande Visits Athens

Eurozone EU’s Almunia Speaks at CER Breakfast Meeting in Brussels 07:00

Eurozone EU’s Barnier Speaks at Conference in Brussels 08:00

Eurozone ECB Announces Allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender 10:15

Eurozone ECB’s Asmussen Speaks in Bratislava 19:15

Eurozone European Union Competitiveness Council Meeting

Source: Bloomberg


UBS 67

Wednesday 20 February 2013


US Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 29-30 FOMC Meeting 19:00

UK Bank of England Releases Monetary Policy Committee Minutes 09:30

Japan BOJ Board Member Morimoto Speech 01:30

Japan Bank Of Japan Board Member Morimoto Speaks in Kochi

Germany Bundesbank’s Dombret Speaks on Euro Crisis at ESMT, Berlin 11:30

Germany Merkel Visits Oslo for Talks with Prime Minister Stoltenberg 16:45

Eurozone ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Dollar Tender 08:00

Eurozone ECB Announces Allotment in 7-Day Dollar Tender 10:00

Source: Bloomberg

Thursday 21 February 2013


US Fed’s Bullard Speaks About Monetary Policy in New York 17:30

US Fed’s Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in New York 18:00

Eurozone NATO Defense Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels

Source: Bloomberg

Friday 22 February 2013


US Fed’s Fisher Speaks on Economy in Dallas 02:15

US Fed’s Powell, Rosengren Speak in New York 15:30

Germany ECB’s Asmussen Speaks at Business School Event in Berlin 11:30

Eurozone EU’s Almunia Speaks on Competition Law in Paris 08:00

Eurozone EU Issues Winter Economic Forecasts in Brussels 10:00

Eurozone ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment 11:00

Eurozone ECB’s Asmussen Speaks in Berlin 12:00

Eurozone NATO Defense Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels

Source: Bloomberg


UBS 68

UBS Corporate Roadshows Date Company City/Country

18 February 18 February 19 February 20 February 21 February 25 February

Anglo American PLC

Edinburgh London Edinburgh/New York London/New York Boston London

18 February UBS AG Madrid


AZ Electronics Materials

London London Edinburgh London Frankfurt London

19 February 20 February 21 February

Borregaard ASA Toronto New York Chicago

19 February Dassault Systemes London

19 February Renault SA London

20 February BNP Paribas London

21 February 22 February 25 February 27 February 28 February 1 March

Ashmore Group

London London Edinburgh Toronto Boston New York

21 February Carlsberg A/S Frankfurt

21 February 22 February

DnB ASA Edinburgh Dublin


Ladbrokes

London London London London Edinburgh London


TOTAL Geneva Zurich

21 February Unibail-Rodamco Geneva/Zurich

22 February Rexel Frankfurt


Capgemini London London

25 February Israel Chemicals New York


Kingspan London London

26 February 27 February 28 February 1 March

Elementis PLC

London London Edinburgh London


UBS 69

26 February 27 February 28 February

Mondi London London Edinburgh


Wolters Kluwer London London


ASML Utrecht Amsterdam/Rotterdam/The Hague/ Utrecht

27 February 28 February 1 March

CRH London London Dublin

27 February 28 February 1 March

Weir London London Edinburgh/London


Wienerberger London London

28 February Anheuser-Busch InBev London

28 February E.ON Amsterdam/Rotterdam/The Hague/ Utrecht

28 February 1 March

Howden Joinery London London

28 February 1 March

Kingspan New York Boston

28 February 1 March

Spirent London London

28 February 1 March

Temenos London London

1 March Derwent London PLC London

1 March GKN Edinburgh

1 March Rightmove London


UBS 70

UBS Conferences, Seminars, Sector trips/Meetings for fortnight ahead Date Event City/Country

25-26 February Russia & CIS One-on-One Conference 2013 New York (NY)

28 February Global TMT Crossroads Conference 2013 Palo Alto (CA)

For further details concerning corporate roadshows and UBS hosted conferences & seminars please contact your UBS representative.


UBS 71

Upcoming UBS Conferences and Seminars From To Event Location

25 February 26 February Russia & CIS One-on-One Conference 2013 New York (NY)

28 February 28 February Global TMT Crossroads Conference 2013 Palo Alto (CA)

4 March 7 March Indonesia Conference 2013 Jakarta

6 March 6 March Access Day: Trends and Wireless New York (NY)

12 March 12 March Access Day: Engineering and Construction New York (NY)

13 March 14 March Global Consumer Conference 2013 Boston (MA)

13 March 13 March Access Day: Fintech New York (NY)

20 March 21 March European Mid-Cap Oil Conference 2013 London

3 April 3 April Access Day: SMID Pharmaceuticals New York (NY)

24 April 25 April Quantitative Investment Conference 2013 London

15 May 17 May Options Seminar London

20 May 22 May Global Healthcare Conference New York (NY)

5 June 5 June Access Day: Autos New York (NY)

6 June 6 June Access Day: Aerospace and Defense New York (NY)

17 June 18 June Canadian Banks Conference 2013 London

12 September 13 September Best of Americas 2013 London

16 September 17 September Transport Conference 2013 London

12 November 13 November European Conference 2013 London

15 November 15 November Trader Seminar 2013 Frankfurt

19 November 19 November UBS Global Outlook 2014 – Zurich Zurich

2 December 4 December Global Real Estate Conference 2013 London

3 December 3 December German Senior Investor Day 2013 Munich

Source: UBS


UBS 72

Recent Initiations of Coverage Please find below details recent initiation of coverage in Europe by UBS. The latest ratings and price targets are disclosed and might differ from those at initiation.

Date Company Name Title of the Note RIC Rating Price Target M-Cap Analyst Country Sector

29 Jan 13 Africa Oil Safari…so good AOIC.ST Buy SKr70 €1.6bn Daniel Ekstein Sweden Oil Companies,

21 Jan 13 Fidessa Group plc Not the growth of yesteryear FDSA.L Sell 1500p €0.8bn William Sheldon United Kingdom Software

10 Jan 13 Vopak Good company, but VOPA.AS Sell €48 €6.7bn Dominic Edridge Netherlands Transportation Services

9 Jan 13 Oxford Instruments PLC Small things but big thinking OXIG.L Buy 1700p €1.1bn Stephen Swanton, United Kingdom Industrial, Diversified

7 Jan 13 Big Yellow Group PLC Storing up returns BYG.L Neutral 380p €0.6bn Harry Stokes United Kingdom Real Estate

10 Dec 12 Inchcape Getting into gear INCH.L Buy 515p €2.7bn Catriona O’Grady United Kingdom Retailers, Specialty

10 Dec 12 Telefónica Deutschland Attractive mobile and FCF O2Dn.DE Buy €7 €6.6bn Andy Parnis Germany Wireless

6 Dec 12 Mellanox Technologies Making Hay in InfiniBand MLNX.O Buy US$55 €1.7bn Steven Milunovich, Israel Computers

27 Nov 12 Borregaard ASA Initiating with a Buy and NKr BRGD.OL Buy NKr28 €0.3bn David Hallden Norway Chemicals, Specialty

22 Nov 12 Direct Line Insurance Plenty in reserve DLGD.L Buy 230p €3.8bn James Pearce United Kingdom Insurance, Property &

21 Nov 12 Alpiq Holding Dealing with European ALPH.S Neutral CHF140 €2.4bn Patrick Hummel, CFA Switzerland Electric Utilities

21 Nov 12 BKW AG Dealing with European BKWB.S Neutral CHF35 €1.1bn Patrick Hummel, CFA Switzerland Electric Utilities

17 Oct 12 Autogrill Strong cash-flow profile AGL.MI Buy €10.4 €2.4bn Bosco Ojeda Italy Retailers, Specialty

15 Oct 12 Cape Good hopes for Cape CIU.L Neutral 210p €0.3bn Caroline Hickson, United Kingdom Industrial Services

15 Oct 12 Hunting Crosshairs muddled HTG.L Neutral 825p €1.5bn Caroline Hickson, United Kingdom Oil Companies,

15 Oct 12 Kentz Ready to spend KENZ.L Buy 500p €0.6bn Caroline Hickson, United Kingdom Oil Companies,

19 Sep 12 Schmolz+Bickenbach AG Balance sheet risks priced in STLN.S Neutral CHF2.8 €0.2bn Andre Rudolf von Switzerland Steel

19 Sep 12 Viscofan Capturing growth at a good VIS.MC Buy €43 €1.8bn Bosco Ojeda Spain Food Products

13 Sep 12 BNP Paribas Focus on funding BNPP.PA Neutral €41 €55.4bn Nick Davey France Banks, Ex-S&L

13 Sep 12 Société Générale Focus on funding SOGN.PA Sell €21.9 €23.8bn Nick Davey France Banks, Ex-S&L

2 Aug 12 Nokian Renkaat Oyj Russia – where the rubber NRE1V.HE Neutral €31 €4.6bn Philippe Houchois Finland Auto Parts


UBS 73

Date Company Name Title of the Note RIC Rating Price Target M-Cap Analyst Country Sector

2 Aug 12 Pirelli & C SpA Highest incremental return PECI.MI Buy €10 €4.2bn David Lesne Italy Tires

20 Jul 12 The Restaurant Group The right ingredients RTN.L Buy 425p €0.9bn Catriona O’Grady United Kingdom Restaurants

5 Jul 12 DE Master Blenders 1753 Assuming a lot of low DEMB.AS Sell €9 €5.4bn Alan Erskine Netherlands Food Products

29 Jun 12 Pennon Group UK water – a sweet spot in PNN.L Neutral 680p €2.8bn Stephen Hunt United Kingdom Water Utilities

29 Jun 12 Severn Trent UK water – a sweet spot in SVT.L Neutral 1695p €4.4bn Stephen Hunt United Kingdom Water Utilities

29 Jun 12 United Utilities UK water – a sweet spot in UU.L Buy 725p €5.7bn Stephen Hunt United Kingdom Water Utilities

19 Jun 12 Buzzi Unicem Italy balances positives BZU.MI Neutral €12 €2bn Benjamin Italy Building Materials

19 Jun 12 Italcementi S.p.A. Tough end markets and ITAI.MI Sell €3.5 €1bn Benjamin Italy Building Materials

12 Jun 12 Genel Energy PLC Turkish delight GENL.L Neutral 850p €1.9bn Daniel Ekstein United Kingdom Oil Companies,

12 Jun 12 Ophir Energy Plc Compelling African M&A and OPHR.L Buy 600p €2.3bn Daniel Ekstein United Kingdom Oil Companies, Major

2 May 12 DKSH Holding AG High ROIC route into Asia DKSH.S Neutral CHF72 €3.6bn William Vanderpump Switzerland Industrial Services

1 May 12 Ziggo NV Growth with cash returns ZIGGO.AS Neutral €25 €5.1bn Polo Tang Netherlands Broadcasting

27 Apr 12 adidas AG Initiating with a Buy and E70 ADSGn.DE Buy €85 €14.5bn Fred Speirs Germany Footwear

27 Apr 12 Puma SE Initiating with a Neutral PUMG.DE Neutral €250 €3.5bn Fred Speirs Germany Footwear

11 Apr 12 Algeta ASA Less optimistic than ALGETA.OL Sell NKr110 €1.1bn Guillaume van Norway Biotechnology

3 Apr 12 ams AG Sector recovery, structural AMS.S Buy CHF130 €1.3bn David Mulholland Switzerland Semiconductors

28 Mar 12 Gemina S.p.A. Still waiting in the starting GEMI.MI Not Rated NA €2bn NA Italy Industrial, Diversified

27 Mar 12 PPR SA Luxury at a discount PRTP.PA Buy €175 €20.3bn Eva Quiroga France Retailers, Broadline

22 Mar 12 Aberdeen Asset Winner takes all ADN.L Buy 440p €5.5bn Arnaud Giblat United Kingdom Diversified Financial

27 Feb 12 Elekta A long-term structural EKTAb.ST Neutral SKr96 €4.6bn Ian Douglas-Pennant Sweden Advanced Medical

20 Feb 12 Grifols Non-Voting Rally on voting shares, a look GRLSbn.M Sell €17 €7.9bn Bosco Ojeda Spain Healthcare Providers

Source: UBS Note: Prices are as of market close on February 13, 2013.


UBS 74

Statement of Risk

Forecasting earnings and corporate financial behaviour is difficult because it is affected by a wide range of economic, financial, accounting and regulatory trends, as well as changes in tax policy.

Analyst Certification

Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.


UBS 75

Required Disclosures This report has been prepared by UBS Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as UBS.

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its research product; historical performance information; and certain additional disclosures concerning UBS research recommendations, please visit www.ubs.com/disclosures. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Allocations

UBS 12-Month Rating Rating Category Coverage1 IB Services2

Buy Buy 48% 34%Neutral Hold/Neutral 42% 35%Sell Sell 9% 18%UBS Short-Term Rating Rating Category Coverage3 IB Services4

Buy Buy less than 1% 33%Sell Sell less than 1% 0%

1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category. 2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. 3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category. 4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the past 12 months. Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2012. UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions

UBS 12-Month Rating Definition Buy FSR is > 6% above the MRA. Neutral FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. Sell FSR is > 6% below the MRA. UBS Short-Term Rating Definition

Buy Buy: Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.

Sell Sell: Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event.


UBS 76

KEY DEFINITIONS Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over the next 12 months. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR) Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Short-Term Ratings reflect the expected near-term (up to three months) performance of the stock and do not reflect any change in the fundamental view or investment case. Equity Price Targets have an investment horizon of 12 months. EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Committee (IRC). Factors considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the respective company's debt. As a result, stocks deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply, they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece. Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/qualified as research analysts with the NASD and NYSE and therefore are not subject to the restrictions contained in the NASD and NYSE rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows. UBS Limited: Themis Themistocleous; Paul Schneider; Christopher Clarke; Yi Peng Cheah.


UBS 77

Company Disclosures

Company Name Reuters 12-mo rating Short-term rating Price Price date A.P.Moller - Maersk A/S MAERSKb.CO Neutral N/A DKr44,600.00 14 Feb 2013 Abertis5, 22 ABE.MC Neutral N/A €12.91 14 Feb 2013 Accor2, 4, 6, 16 ACCP.PA Neutral N/A €29.26 14 Feb 2013 Air France - KLM16 AIRF.PA Buy N/A €8.31 14 Feb 2013 Aker ASA AKER.OL Neutral N/A NKr226.50 14 Feb 2013 Akzo Nobel16, 22 AKZO.AS Sell N/A €52.43 14 Feb 2013 Ashmore Group4, 5, 14 ASHM.L Neutral N/A 370p 14 Feb 2013 Atos ATOS.PA Buy N/A €56.60 14 Feb 2013 AZ Electronic Materials4, 6, 14 AZEM.L Neutral N/A 376p 14 Feb 2013 BAE SYSTEMS5, 6, 14, 16 BAES.L Buy N/A 330p 14 Feb 2013 BHP Billiton Plc3b, 3c, 4, 5, 6, 16 BLT.L Buy N/A 2,225p 14 Feb 2013 Capgemini5, 16 CAPP.PA Buy N/A €35.78 14 Feb 2013 Carlsberg A/S16 CARLb.CO Neutral N/A DKr592.50 14 Feb 2013 Casino2, 4, 5 CASP.PA Neutral N/A €76.34 14 Feb 2013 CFAO SA CFAO.PA Neutral N/A €35.30 14 Feb 2013 CSR16 CSR.L Neutral N/A 386p 14 Feb 2013 Danone16 DANO.PA Neutral N/A €50.37 14 Feb 2013 Deutsche Boerse12, 16 DB1Gn.DE Buy N/A €48.41 14 Feb 2013 Dia DIDA.MC Sell N/A €5.85 14 Feb 2013 Drax Group2, 4, 14 DRX.L Buy N/A 604p 14 Feb 2013 DSM4, 5, 16 DSMN.AS Neutral N/A €45.26 14 Feb 2013 DSV DSV.CO Neutral N/A DKr143.10 14 Feb 2013 E.ON5, 16, 22 EONGn.DE Sell N/A €13.15 14 Feb 2013 easyJet13 EZJ.L Buy N/A 992p 14 Feb 2013 Enagas5, 13, 16 ENAG.MC Buy N/A €17.66 14 Feb 2013 Enel2, 4, 5, 16 ENEI.MI Sell N/A €2.92 14 Feb 2013 Ferrovial5, 16 FER.MC Neutral N/A €11.77 14 Feb 2013 Filtrona FLTR.L Buy N/A 569p 14 Feb 2013 Fortum16 FUM1V.HE Sell N/A €14.92 14 Feb 2013 France Telecom16 FTE.PA Neutral N/A €7.67 14 Feb 2013 Gas Natural Fenosa5 GAS.MC Neutral N/A €15.42 14 Feb 2013 Gecina5 GFCP.PA Sell N/A €85.13 14 Feb 2013 Go-Ahead Group13 GOG.L Neutral N/A 1,370p 14 Feb 2013 Havas13 EURC.PA Buy N/A €4.90 14 Feb 2013 Icade SA5 ICAD.PA Neutral N/A €68.40 14 Feb 2013 Informa5, 16 INF.L Buy N/A 486p 14 Feb 2013 InterContinental Hotels Group16 IHG.L Sell N/A 1,944p 14 Feb 2013 Kabel Deutschland4 KD8Gn.DE Neutral N/A €69.96 14 Feb 2013 Kingfisher5, 16 KGF.L Neutral N/A 276p 14 Feb 2013 Laboratorios Farmacéuticos Rovi ROVI.MC Buy N/A €6.09 14 Feb 2013 Ladbrokes8, 14, 16 LAD.L Buy N/A 224p 14 Feb 2013 Lafarge5, 16 LAFP.PA Buy N/A €45.58 14 Feb 2013 Metropole TV MMTP.PA Buy N/A €12.96 14 Feb 2013 Mondi14, 16, 18c MNDI.L Neutral N/A 822p 14 Feb 2013 MTU Aero Engines Holding AG16, 18a MTXGn.F Neutral N/A €70.43 14 Feb 2013

Nobel Biocare5, 16 NOBN.S Neutral N/A CHF9.62 14 Feb 2013 Novartis2, 3a, 4, 5, 6, 13, 16, 22 NOVN.VX Buy N/A CHF63.20 14 Feb 2013 OMV16 OMVV.VI Neutral N/A €30.23 14 Feb 2013 Phoenix Group Holdings5, 13 PHNX.L Sell N/A 640p 14 Feb 2013 Premier Foods16 PFD.L Sell N/A 87p 14 Feb 2013 Rhoen-Klinikum5, 13 RHKG.DE Neutral N/A €15.27 14 Feb 2013 RSA Insurance Group4 RSA.L Neutral N/A 133p 14 Feb 2013


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Company Name Reuters 12-mo rating Short-term rating Price Price date RWE2, 4, 5, 16 RWEG.DE Sell N/A €27.65 14 Feb 2013 Safran SA16 SAF.PA Buy N/A €33.85 14 Feb 2013 Saint Gobain SGOB.PA Neutral N/A €30.38 14 Feb 2013 Schindler4, 5, 18b SCHP.VX Neutral N/A CHF139.50 14 Feb 2013 Schneider Electric5, 16 SCHN.PA Neutral N/A €54.31 14 Feb 2013 SES SESFd.PA Buy N/A €22.92 14 Feb 2013 Spectris SXS.L Buy N/A 2,397p 14 Feb 2013 Straumann5, 13 STMN.S Neutral N/A CHF127.00 14 Feb 2013 Swedish Match SWMA.ST Buy N/A SKr224.70 14 Feb 2013 Swiss Re5, 16 SRENH.VX Neutral N/A CHF73.80 14 Feb 2013 Technip16 TECF.PA Buy N/A €78.45 14 Feb 2013 Tenaris16 TS Neutral N/A US$40.81 14 Feb 2013 TF1 TFFP.PA Neutral N/A €9.12 14 Feb 2013 TNT Express NV TNTE.AS Buy N/A €5.46 14 Feb 2013 Travis Perkins13 TPK.L Neutral N/A 1,283p 14 Feb 2013 Valeo16 VLOF.PA Neutral N/A €40.89 14 Feb 2013 Vallourec16 VLLP.PA Neutral N/A €39.35 14 Feb 2013 Verbund AG16 VERB.VI Sell N/A €17.10 14 Feb 2013 Wolters Kluwer16 WLSNc.AS Buy N/A €15.17 14 Feb 2013

Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close. Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date 2. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of

this company/entity or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. 3a. UBS AG is acting as agent on the announced share buy-back programme of Novartis AG 3b. UBS AG, Australia Branch is acting as Adviser to BHP Billiton Ltd on the off-market buy-back and will be receiving fees

for acting in this capacity. 3c. UBS AG, Australia Branch is acting as financial adviser to BHP Billiton Group Operations Pty Ltd and Mitsubishi

Development Pty Ltd on the possible sale of its Gregory Crinum metallurgical coal operations and will receive a fee for acting in this capacity.

4. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity.

5. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity within the next three months.

6. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and investment banking services are being, or have been, provided.

8. The equity analyst covering this company, a member of his or her team, or one of their household members has a long common stock position in this company.

12. An employee of UBS AG is an officer, director, or advisory board member of this company. 13. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this company`s common equity

securities as of last month`s end (or the prior month`s end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recent month`s end).

14. UBS Limited acts as broker to this company. 16. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company. 18a. In Germany, UBS Limited has entered into a contractual arrangement to act as the manager of orders (Designated

Sponsor) in the financial instruments of this company. 18b. UBS AG is acting as agent on Schindler`s announced share buy-back programme. 18c. UBS South Africa (Pty) Limited acts as JSE sponsor to this company. 22. UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries held other significant financial interests in this company/entity as of last month`s end

(or the prior month`s end if this report is dated less than 10 working days after the most recent month`s end).


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Unless otherwise indicated, please refer to the Valuation and Risk sections within the body of this report. For a complete set of disclosure statements associated with the companies discussed in this report, including information on valuation and risk, please contact UBS Securities LLC, 1285 Avenue of Americas, New York, NY 10019, USA, Attention: Publishing Administration. Additional Prices: Aberdeen Asset Management, 426p (14 Feb 2013); adidas AG, €69.33 (14 Feb 2013); Africa Oil, SKr51.25 (14 Feb 2013); Algeta ASA, NKr181.10 (14 Feb 2013); Alpiq Holding, CHF107.00 (14 Feb 2013); ams AG, CHF122.00 (14 Feb 2013); Autogrill, €9.24 (14 Feb 2013); Big Yellow Group PLC, 372p (14 Feb 2013); BKW AG, CHF30.60 (14 Feb 2013); BNP Paribas, €46.75 (14 Feb 2013); Borregaard ASA, NKr23.50 (14 Feb 2013); Buzzi Unicem, €11.21 (14 Feb 2013); Cape, 223p (14 Feb 2013); DE Master Blenders 1753, €8.73 (14 Feb 2013); Direct Line Insurance Group plc, 216p (14 Feb 2013); DKSH Holding AG, CHF71.55 (14 Feb 2013); Elekta, SKr100.50 (14 Feb 2013); Fidessa Group plc, 1,820p (14 Feb 2013); Gemina S.p.A., €1.31 (14 Feb 2013); Genel Energy PLC, 775p (14 Feb 2013); Grifols Non-Voting, €20.66 (14 Feb 2013); Hunting, 862p (14 Feb 2013); Inchcape, 485p (14 Feb 2013); Italcementi S.p.A., €4.44 (14 Feb 2013); Kentz, 409p (14 Feb 2013); Mellanox Technologies, US$52.89 (14 Feb 2013); Nokian Renkaat Oyj, €35.66 (14 Feb 2013); Ophir Energy Plc, 480p (14 Feb 2013); Oxford Instruments PLC, 1,732p (14 Feb 2013); Pennon Group, 655p (14 Feb 2013); Pirelli & C SpA, €8.64 (14 Feb 2013); PPR SA, €159.80 (14 Feb 2013); Puma SE, €232.25 (14 Feb 2013); Schmolz+Bickenbach AG, CHF2.65 (14 Feb 2013); Severn Trent, 1,579p (14 Feb 2013); Société Générale, €30.41 (14 Feb 2013); Telefónica Deutschland Holding AG, €5.90 (14 Feb 2013); The Restaurant Group, 383p (14 Feb 2013); United Utilities, 719p (14 Feb 2013); Viscofan, €39.10 (14 Feb 2013); Vopak, €53.70 (14 Feb 2013); Ziggo NV, €25.74 (14 Feb 2013); Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close.


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