ucla climate research lounge. what climate change means for southern california: results from the...
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U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
What Climate Change Means for Southern California:
Results From the Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project
Alex Hall December 3, 2013
Long Beach
Downtown LASanta Monica
San Fernando Valley
San Bernardino
Palmdale
Ventura
Downtown LA
Santa Monica
Glendale
Burbank
Culver City
Hollywood
Sherman OaksPasadena
InglewoodDowney
South Los Angeles
We applied ~30 global climate models to the Los Angeles region
Baseline Mid-Century End-Century
Business As Usual
Mitigation
1880 1960 2000 2040 2080
1400
1200
400
200
ppm
Observed
We projected future climate for 2 scenarios
Bakersfield
Palm Springs
San Diego
SantaBarbara
Los Angeles
SanBernardino
Average August Temperature 1981–2000
Temperature
Average August Temperature2041–2060: Business As Usual
Average August Temperature
Temperature
90
85
80
1981–2000
75
2041–2060
Business As Usual
At least 70% of Business-As-Usual warming is inevitable
Mitigation
2041–2060Business As Usual
100 days >
1981–200060 days >
Days Hotter Than 95⁰F Per Year
San Fernando
Santa Monica
Woodland Hills
Baldwin HillsDowntown LA
Studio City
Long Beach
Venice
Watts
WestwoodHollywood
Porter Ranch
Sunland
El Sereno
Pasadena
Santa Ana
SantaClarita
Adaptation is inevitable.
Water resources
Fire
SnowTemperatures
Sea level riseEcosystem effects
But is it enough?
Average August temperature
Temperature
90
85
80
1981–2000
75
2041–2060
Business As Usual
Mitigation
2081–2100
California Climate Change Projections
For more on the Climate Change in LA Project:
C-CHANGE.LA
U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
Thank You
Department of EnergyNational Science FoundationLos Angeles Mayor’s OfficeLos Angeles Regional CollaborativeClimate ResolveUCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability
Special Thanks to:
Beth JinesJonathan ParfreyPaul BunjeMadelyn GlickfeldMark GoldGlen MacDonaldStephanie Pincetl
U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e
Credits
Presentation design, maps and illustrations by www.greeninfo.org
Photography/Images:
California Geological SurveyLos Angeles TimesOrange County RegisterMark A. JohnsonAccuweather.com IPCCNewser.comAssociated Press/Huffington PostNASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesXweather.org
Average Dec–Mar Precipitation1981–2000
Precipitation
Little change in precipitation by mid-century*Average Dec–Mar Precipitation2041–2060: Business As Usual
*Results are preliminary
Precipitation
But other factors affect water resources
Snowpack
Evaporation
Streamflow
Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
87”
40”
87”
Baseline Annual Snowfall
Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
52”
22”
53”
Business As UsualMid-Century
Snowfall
Idyllwild
Wrightwood
Lake Arrowhead
62”
27”
63”
MitigationMid-Century
Fire
45000
Acres Burned by Wildfires*
5000
25000
15000
35000
1981–2000
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2041–2060Business As Usual
*Preliminary results from fire study conducted in collaboration with Yufang Jin and Jim Randerson at UC Irvine
U C L A C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h L o u n g e