Dr. Gene WhitneyAssistant Director for EnvironmentOffice of Science and Technology Policy

Executive Office of the President

WISP Meeting - July 25, 2007

The Path Forward on Earth Observations and Climate Change

“Climate change is the 800 pound gorilla in the room.” *

* Sources too numerous to list.

• Started with the U.S. Global Change Research Act in 1990• 13 Federal agencies• 13 years• $1.6 billion/yr, $20 billion total• Basic research and global monitoring• International collaboration and cooperation

1. Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change.

2. Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems

3. Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future

4. Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes

5. Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change

U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goals

DO

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ST

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AM

4-6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems

4-7 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study

5-1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

5-2Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking.

5-3Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data

2-3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate

3-1 Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications

3-3 Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific islands.

3-4 Abrupt Climate Change

4-1Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise

4-3The effects of climate change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources

4-5Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States

U.S. Climate Change Science ProgramSynthesis and Assessment Products

(a sample most relevant to weather & transportation out of 21 total)

U.S. Climate Change Science ProgramFY09 Research Priorities

• Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds

• Assessing Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate: Examining the feasibility of developing an abrupt change early warning system

• Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability: A focus toward creating a high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 1979

• Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application Capability

• Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems

• Ecological Forecasting

IPCC 2007 – WG1-AR4

Precipitation change between 1980s and 2090s

%

IPCC reports……

Strong U.S. participation

Winter

Summer

Future path of climate change research:

1. More accurate rendering of natural systems by models through incorporation of clouds, aerosols, and other variables not currently handled

2. Higher resolution models to provide regional and local climate forecasts

3. More emphasis on impacts of climate change and understanding the mechanisms of climate change through the impacts

4. Exploration of innovative adaptation strategies

Climate change science is not finished!

“You can’t manage what you don’t measure.”*

* An old adage from business community

Vision: “Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained Earth observation system.”

Purpose of USGEO: “to provide a management, planning, and resource allocation strategy for a U.S. Integrated EarthObservation System”

U.S. Group on Earth Observations

http://usgeo.gov

• Identify current and evolving requirements in the full range of societal benefits.

• Prioritize investments, including for new requirements, as necessary.

• Establish U.S. policies for Earth observations and data management, and continue U.S. policies of open access to observations, encouraging other countries to do likewise.

Goals for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System*

* Verbatim from a longer list in the USGEO Strategic Plan

Improve Weather Forecasting

Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters

Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resources

Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change

Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation

Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health & Well Being

Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts

Protect and Monitor Water Resources

Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

Integrated Earth Observation System Societal Benefits

Look for the environmental observational value chain that

ends here

Electric grid analogy

Visualizing an Integrated Earth Observations System

• Existing Policy Foundation for Earth Observations

• Coordination of Federal Earth Observation Activities

• Roles and Responsibilities of Federal Agencies and EOP Offices

• The role of defense and intelligence communities in Earth observations

• Role of State, local, regional, and tribal governments and institutions

• Role of the Commercial/Industrial/Private Sector/NGOs/Academia

• Guidelines for Research-to-Operations Transition

• International Cooperation in Earth observations

• Earth observations technical architecture

• Data collection, archiving, and availability

• Capacity Building for Earth Observations

U.S. Earth Observations Policy: The “HOW”

Earth Observation Capabilities:Assessment & Planning: The “WHAT”

1. Assess existing Earth observation

capabilities

2. Define national needs for societal

benefits

3. Identify gaps and overlaps

4. Establish priorities or value

system

5. Identify agencies responsible for priority

needs

6. Coordinate budget planning with agencies

and OMB

7. Implement and manage

priority systems

…..ongoing process……

GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan Reference

Document

GEO/GEOSSGroup on Earth Observations/Global Earth

Observations System of Systemshttp://www.earthobservations.org