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The Global War on Terrorism: The Long War

Joint StaffJ-5 Strategic Plans and Policy

Deputy Directorate for the War on Terrorism

This briefing is UNCLASSIFIED12 September 2007

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When Was America Attacked?

1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis 1983 – Embassy & Marine Barracks Bombing, Lebanon1984 – Embassy Official kidnapped and murdered, Lebanon1985 – TWA Hijacking, U.S. sailor murdered – Achille Lauro Hijacking, American murdered1988 – U.S. Marine kidnapped and murdered, Lebanon – USO attacked, Italy1993 – World Trade Center Bombing1995 – Military Installation attacked, Saudi Arabia1995-1997 – Palestinian terrorist attacks murdered Americans1996 – Khobar Towers Bombing, Saudi Arabia1997 – Empire State Building Sniper Attack1998 – Embassy Bombings, Kenya & Tanzania2000 – U.S.S. Cole Bombing, Yemen2001 – Philippines Hostage Incident – World Trade Center, Pentagon, Shanksville, PA

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Nature of the Conflict

Muslim Society

Leverage Grievances:Leverage Grievances:• ““Islam is Under Attack”Islam is Under Attack”• All Muslims must rise to the All Muslims must rise to the defense of Islamdefense of Islam• Re-establish Islamic states Re-establish Islamic states under strict Sharia Lawunder strict Sharia Law• Restore the preeminence of Restore the preeminence of the Muslim worldthe Muslim world

Extremist InfluenceExtremist Influence

GRIEVANCES—both perceived and real:• Local: Corrupt and ineffective political, economic, and social systems,

high unemployment

• Regional: Bias in US policies, (Palestine, Kashmir, Iraq, etc);

heavy handed US operations, occupation of Islamic lands

• Global: Infusion of Western culture corrupting society

RESULT: anger, humiliation, and disenfranchisement

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Who is the Enemy?

• “A transnational movement of extremist organizations, networks, and individuals – and their state and non-state sponsors – which have in common that they exploit Islam and use terrorism for ideological ends.”

• Al-Qaeda Associated Movement is the most dangerous threat– Possess an undiminished intent to carry out a spectacular

attack on the U.S. Homeland– Have regenerated their leadership and core operational

elements– Resilient in their patience for the inevitable “Security Fatigue”

of U.S. population– Persistent and evolving threat that quickly adapts and modifies

its tactics• Other violent extremist groups pose a continued serious threat

Nature of the Enemy

- Represent no nation - Do not mass armies or warships

- Defend no territory - Wear no uniform-Operate in shadows, conspire in secret, attack without warning

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Religion – Does it Matter in GWOT?

• Our enemies in the GWOT are violent terrorists who identify themselves as Islamic and use Islamic law (Shari’a), concepts, and symbology to pursue a religiously justified path to their objectives

• Militant Islam:– Provides an overarching, transnational

ideology that gives the terrorists a connection (common identity) to the world’s 1.5 billion Muslims

– Uses unassailable religious terms and law to justify a social-political agenda

– Proposes a solution to modern social and political ills

– Provides unique access to public (via mosques and religious institutions) for recruitment, mobilization and support

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Al-Qaeda’s Vision: Restore a Sunni Caliphate

Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror.

Result• Strongest army in the world• Strongest currency in the world• Largest country in the world• Atomic and super power country• Half of world population in Islamic State

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Strategic Aims:• Defeat violent extremism as a threat to our way of life as a free and open society, and• Create a global environment inhospitable to violent extremists and all who support them

Instruments of National Power

“We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, the only path to

safety is the path of action.” – President George W. Bush

Ends

Ways

Means

National Strategic Framework for the GWOT

Protect and defend the Homeland and

U.S. interests abroad

Attack terrorists and their capacity to

operate effectively at home and abroad

Support mainstream Muslim efforts to reject

violent extremism

Expand foreign partnerships and partnership capacity

Strengthen our capacity to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of WMD

Institutionalize domestically and internationally the War on Terror

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Cold War offers several lessons:• Long, sustained struggle punctuated by periods of conflict• Required perseverance by the American people • Required all instruments of national power to win• Required non-military programs and institutions

o Marshall Plano Truman Doctrineo Radio Free Europeo Central Intelligence Agency

Global War on Terrorism requires similar efforts

“Some of you may ask: when and how will the Cold War end? I think I can answer that simply; the Communist world has great resources and it looks strong, but there is a fatal flaw in their society. Theirs is … a system of slavery. There is no freedom in it, no consent …I have a deep and abiding faith in the destiny of free men. With patience and courage, we shall some day move on into a new era.” President Harry S. Truman, 1953

Defeating an Extremist Ideology – Takes Time

o World Banko International Monetary Fundo United Nations

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• Muslim population is key; grievances provide inroads for violent extremists

• al Qaeda has made Iraq its central front

• Success requires perseverance; not necessarily combat

• Address grievances in the Muslim World

• Discredit violent extremist ideology

• Build partner nation capacity

Summary

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Backup Slides

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Agenda

• Understanding the environment

• Understanding the enemy(s)

• Understanding our strategy

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Wide Range of Adversaries

bin Laden

Kim Jung Il

WMD

State Armies

Ballistic Missiles

Complex & Distributed Battlespace

Computer Network Attack

High Intensity Combat Terrorism

“Adversaries increasingly seek asymmetric capabilities

and will use them in innovative ways.”

-2004 NMS

Diffuse Technology

Insurgency & Unconventional

Warfare

State and Non-state

Rising competitors

Rogue States

Failed States

Islamic Extremists

Narco-Criminals

Humanitarian Disasters

Disease

al-Masri

21st Century Security Environment

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Global Terrorists

Asbat al-AnsarHAMASHizballahKachPLFPIJPFLPPFLP-GC

AQ – global network

13Current conflicts

IIPBRSRSBCM

SPIR

DHKP/C

GIAGSP

C

ASG

HUMJEMLT

LIFG

IJG / IMU Aum

ETA

CPP/NPA

CIRAReal IRA

IG

LTTE

SL

AUCELN

FARC

JI

GICM

17 NovRN

MEK

PKK

AIAI

ETIM

IAA

TCG

Recent Terrorist Attacks

Enemy Considerations:• Intentions?• Capabilities?• Ambitions?• Potential?• Deception?

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Increased Communication Increased Ambitions

The Changing Nature of Terrorism

Increased Capabilities

•From a local threat to regional and global ambitions•Increased use of mass casualty weapons and mass media

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Basic Ideology of al-Qaeda

Totalitarian ideology that exploits Islamic doctrine to justify the use of violence (jihad) to establish a fundamentalist Islamic State.

• Believe that only they are the true believers; all others subject to takfir or declaration of apostasy, death

• Hostile unbelievers seek to destroy Islam; justifies jihad against them and their puppets

• Western political systems/governance are man made and therefore illegitimate; Islam is the only solution

• An Islamic State (Caliphate) is necessary to implement Islamic law correctly and ultimately convert the world to Islam

“We've done a lot of work since September the 11th to make this country safe, and it is safer, but it's not completely safe.  It's important for the American people to understand there are cold-

blooded killers who want to come to our homeland and wreak havoc through death.“- President George W. Bush, August 3, 2007

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3

Source: Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi, 9 July 2005

2. “Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighboring Iraq”

“If our intended goal in this age is the establishment of a caliphate….”

3. “Clash with Israel”

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al-Qaeda Strategy

1. “Expel the Americans from Iraq; Establish an Islamic authority or emirate”

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• Violence and intimidation are their primary tactics: Majority of Muslim world does not support use of violence to solve political problems

• Possess a backward vision of the future: Most Muslims do not desire a Taliban-like regime

• Diverse cultural, religious and linguistic dimensions prevent compatibility amongst extremists

• Restricted freedom of movement, communications and financial support

So what do we need to do? What is our strategy?

What are the Enemy’s Vulnerabilities?

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U.S. Military Efforts in the Global War on Terrorism

32

2

2

2

LEGENDAl-Qa’ida Associated Movement terrorist attacks

Furthest Historical Extent of the Muslim World c. 1500

Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa

22

OEF – Caribbean & Central America

Combined Joint Task Force – 82

Military Assistance to Pakistan

OEF – Philippines

OEF – Trans Sahara

Operation Unified Assistance

Security Cooperation Plans

Multi-National Force – Iraq

DoD Rewards Program

The United States military is conducting multiple operations to defeat violent extremists

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“For … the global community, the withering away of the state is not a prelude to utopia but to disaster … These weak states have posed threats to international order because they are the source of conflict and … because they have become the potential breeding grounds for a new kind of terrorism that can reach into the developed world.”

Francis Fukuyama, State Building, Cornell University Press, 2004.

Building Capacity – Takes Time

1953: Devastated by War

2007: Sovereign and Prosperous

Security

Governance

Rule of law

Education

Commerce

developedovertime

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Kabul

Herat

Mazar-e Sharif

Quetta

Kandahar

Farah

Islamabad

RC North

Afghanistan Update

ISAF has assumed stability and security assistance mission throughout Afghanistan

US maintains responsibility for counter-terrorism mission

US leads development of Security Forces; fielded forces continue to show improvement

Persistent presence to deny Al Qaida/ Taliban resurgence

CONSOLIDATED SECURITY OPS UNDER NATO

US:Coalition:ANSF:NATO ISAF

25,6001,060

104,10039,195

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Iraq Update

US Personnel in Iraq – 160,000

Coalition Personnel in Iraq – 11,320

ISF – 359,700

What is our Purpose? Ensure al Qaeda does not pose a threat to the U.S. and its interests

• Enable a stable and secure Iraq that can sustain and defend itself

• Set the conditions for political and economic progress

• Support moderate voices confronting extremism in the region

• Enable Self-Reliance

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Complex Problem…Requires Complex Approach

Attack Network

Info Ops

Diplomacy

Econ Assist

Hum Assist

Sec Assist

Edu Assist

Info Ops

Exchanges

Info

Ops

Gov Reform

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• Terrorist groups gaining access to weapons of mass destruction

• Radicalization of Muslim youth that will serve to perpetuate violence

• Loss of United States public support and political will to defeat this threat while it is still in its infancy

What Should Keep You Awake at Night?

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Transition from Combat Operations to Capacity Building

We are making measurable progress in the War on Terrorism—but it will take sustained assistance and perseverance to build

legitimate and effective governance to counter extremism

Conflict Resolution

US Level of Commitment

Lead passed to host nation

Sustainable assistanceIntervention 2-3 YRS 9 YRS

Drivers of Conflict and Casualties Reduced

Legitimate Host Country Institutional Capacity Increased

Goal

Vision

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Marshall Plan for the Mid-East

• Why do we need a Marshall Plan for the Middle East?

ManageMigration

ProvidingJobs

MitigateHezbollah/Hamas

Prevent Radicalization

CurbDrug Traffic

EffectiveGovernance

• Effective model of success from the Cold War that utilized economic and information levers as primary instruments of national power

• Addressing non-military issues is decisive to achieving our strategic end state of creating a global environment inhospitable to violent extremists

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Demographics and Future Security Implications

WORLD POPULATION

Security Concerns:• Urbanization• Immigrant Assimilation• Resource Scarcity• Natural Disasters• Larger Pool of Aggrieved• Radicalization• Failed States

Decreasing BirthsAging Populace

2005: 6.9 Billion 2025: 7.9 Billion 2050: 9.2 Billion

98% of World Population Growth is in the Developing World

Equivalent of 2 New Indias in Next 45 yrs!

Increasing BirthsYoung Populace

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Tribes and Borders

Pashto

TajikUzbekTurkmen

Hazara

Nuristani

Persian

Chahar

Punjabi

Baluchi