Under what Conditions do Civil Wars Occur?

Civil wars occur under the conditions of a rebel financial capability to fight and political and

economic ethnic inequality. This essay will begin by defining the key terms ‘civil war’ and

‘occur’ as well as contextualise the topic and justify the most different systems design

comparative method of analysis. Next, it will examine the academic literature’s theoretical

discussions on the both conditions, starting with rebel financial capability and then political

and economic ethnic inequality. Then, this essay will examine the two case studies, Liberia

and Sri Lanka respectively, and analyse how they both exemplify these two theories. Last, it

will provide a brief word of caution over the generalisability of this essay and conclude.

To better understand under what conditions civil wars occur, this essay will first define key

terms. In line with the existing academic literature (Collier and Hoffler 2004), ‘civil wars’ are

defined according to Singer and Small (1982) as an internal conflict with at least 1,000

combat-related deaths, consisting of both a rebel and government faction with the latter

suffering at least 5% of the casualties. ‘Occur’ simply means arises.

This essay will utilise the most different systems design, in which it will take two different

cases, Liberia and Sri Lanka, and show that their similarities embody this essay’s two stated

conditions. The two stated conditions for civil war, rebel financial capability to fight and

political and economic ethnic inequality, are the two independent variables. The outcome,

civil war, is the dependant variable. It is difficult to measure the independent variables

quantitatively because the raw data is either non-existent or unavailable (UN Development

Report, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Kay 2000, Sarvananthan 2007), however when

available will be reported. Qualitative measurements will also be utilised when appropriate.

Liberia and Sri Lanka were chosen because they both illustrate the two conditions for civil

war this essay is looking at and are well researched in the academic literature. Additionally,

these cases differ geographically, culturally, historically and demographically. This essay

hopes to maximise the differentiation between case studies to pinpoint similarities and benefit

from in-depth analysis with the most different systems design. Next, it will proceed with a

theoretical discussion with reference to the literature on the conditions of civil war.

The rebel group’s financial capability to fight is a condition under which civil wars occur. A

rebel group requires the utilisation of manpower and equipment to survive against

government forces and in turn fight a civil war (Collier and Hoffler 2004: 6). These

requirements rely on the rebel group’s ability to raise the necessary finances to do so (ibid.).

Therefore, civil wars will occur when it is economically feasible. The literature outlines three

primary revenue sources: natural resource exploitation, such as the FARC’s cocaine

exploitation in Colombia (Collier and Hoffler 2004: 3), foreign diaspora community funding,

such as remittances by North American expats to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Korf

2006: 114) and foreign government funding, such as Libyan funding of the Independence

National Patriotic Front of Liberia (Uppsala Conflict Data Program 2008).

This condition for civil war, however, has recently come under fire by theorists. Judging

whether a civil war will occur or not based solely on a rebel group’s financial capacity

synonymises rebels to mere economic opportunists (Duffield 2001). This is an insufficiently

narrow perspective which ignores potential non-economic conditions for civil wars.

Additionally, most rebellions begin small, under resourced relative to their governments

(Lindberg 2008: 14) and often brutally crushed (Mason 1999: 181). Therefore, if civil wars

were caused only by rebel financial capability, they would usually die out early. Yet, civil

wars such as Liberia and Sri Lanka last over half a decade. Therefore, there must be another

condition under which civil wars occur.

Political and economic ethnic inequality is another condition under which civil wars occur.

The reasoning behind this theory rests on psychological literature (Hogg and Abrams 1988,

Turner 1981, Peterson 2002, Cederman, Weidmann and Gleditsch 2011). To begin, political

inequality is defined as a high degree of exclusion between groups from politics (Cederman,

Weidmann and Gleditsch 2011: 484). Economic inequality entails an uneven wealth

distribution among groups, usually measured in quantitative studies as a group’s average

GDP per capita distance from the national average or the evenness of public goods

distribution between groups (ibid.). Hogg and Abrams (1988) argue that these inequalities

usually take shape along ethnic lines, in turn creating and reinforcing binary perceptions of

society (Turner 1981). In other words, ethnic inequality creates an us-versus-other mentality.

Further feelings of injustice and domination cement these perceptions and spark hostility

towards the advantaged ethnic group (Peterson 2002: 40). This anger, Cederman, Weidmann

and Gleditsch (2011) argue, causes civil war.

However, political and economic ethnic inequality alone also does not fully represent

conditions under which civil wars occur. Denny and Walter (2014) discuss in their paper

indigenous South American Amazonian tribes, which are some of the most discriminated

ethnic groups in the world, yet do not rebel against their states. This shows that ethnic

inequality alone does not cause civil wars. There must be an operational capacity, and

funding behind it, to carry out the civil war in addition to political and economic inequality.

This idea has also been supported by the academic literature (Korf 2005). Thus, political and

economic ethnic inequality, in conjunction with a financial capability, are conditions for civil

wars to occur. This essay will proceed with case studies of Liberia and Sri Lanka

respectively.

The Liberian Civil War lasted from 1989-1996 and fought initially between two factions: the

government forces based in the capital, Monrovia, under President Samuel Doe and the

rebellion, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL) led by Charles Taylor (Uppsala

Conflict Data Program 2008). Liberia is a West African, resource-rich country with 16

different ethnic groups (Hegre, Østby, Raleigh 2009: 605). There was a government power

disparity following the 1980 coup d’état in which the Krahn ethnic group assumed control

(Bøås and Hatløy 2008: 36). Over 250,000 people died, there was a distinct rebel and

government faction and the government suffered over 5% of the casualties, thus classifying

the Liberian Civil War as a civil war according to this essay’s definition (Uppsala Conflict

Data Program 2008). Taylor, on the onset of the civil war, was financially well supported by

Libya, Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso, although how much funding he had received is

unknown (ibid.). He was also trained, given supplies and refuge initially in Libya and then

Ivory Coast (Tranekaer 2012: 16), the latter from which Taylor launched his civil war from.

Charles Taylor’s financial support from foreign governments shows that the NPFL had a

financial capability to wage a civil war.

Liberia, on the eve of civil war, also experienced political and economic ethnic inequality.

When the ethnic Krahns assumed power in 1980, they actively barred ethnic Gios and Monos

from political participation and installed themselves and their allies into all important

administrative roles in Monrovia (Bangura 2007: 128). This example of Gio and Mono

political exclusion is a demonstration of political ethnic inequality. Similarly, these ethnic

groups were unfairly discriminated against economically. Doe’s administration excluded

Gios and Monos from natural resource revenues and unfairly distributed public goods (Ellis

1997: 166). Although specific figures are unknown (UN Development Report), economic

wealth and public goods were clearly divided along ethnic lines between the Krahns and Gios

and Monos (Bøås and Hatløy 2008: 36), showcasing ethnic economic inequality. Therefore,

both conditions under which a civil war should occur were present on the eve of the Liberian

Civil War. This essay will now turn to the Sri Lankan Civil War and show that it also

satisfies both conditions for civil war.

The Sri Lankan Civil War was fought between the government, consisting of a Sinhalese

majority (75%), and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), consisting of a Tamil

minority (15%), from 1983-2009 (Embuldeniya 2013: 94). Over 70,000 people died, there

was a distinct rebel and government faction and the government suffered over 5% of the

casualties, thus classifying the Sri Lankan Civil War as a civil war (Uppsala Conflict Data

Program 2008). First, the rebel faction had a financial capacity to carry out the civil war: The

LTTE was heavily financed by foreign North American Tamil expats who sent large

remittances to fighters (Kay 2000). Although exact figures are unknown, the LTTE possessed

sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons systems (ibid.), which showcases the extent to which the

LTTE was financed and the capabilities it had to wage civil war.

Additionally, political and economic inequalities existed between the Sinhalese and Tamils.

Politically, the Tamils were discriminated against and unable to participate in politics. This

was illustrated in their ignored efforts to stop government-sponsored Sinhalese settler

expansion onto their lands (Korf 2005: 204). Sinhalese expansion continued in spite of Tamil

objections because they had very limited government representation, showcasing the extent

of their political exclusion and inequality. Economically, Tamils were also unequal. Raw

statistical data divided by ethnicity is hard to come by, since the government excluded Tamil

dominated regions from census data (Sarvananthan 2007: 36-43), however when available,

income levels, education and health indicators are far lower in Tamil areas compared to

Sinhalese areas (Sarvananthan 2007: 43-44). This depicts the economic inequality between

the Sinhalese ruling majority and the Tamil minority, and in conjunction with political

inequality and a demonstrated rebel financial capability, shows that the conditions for which

civil wars occur existed. Next, this essay will discuss the Liberia and Sri Lanka

comparatively.

Liberia and Sri Lanka are very different countries that differ geographically, culturally,

historically and demographically, yet, both countries experienced civil wars. Liberia and Sri

Lanka on the eves of their respective civil wars suffered from both theoretical conditions this

essay has identified—Charles Taylor and the NPFL and the LTTE both had enough

manpower and equipment, coming from Libyan, Ivorian and Burkinabe funding and North

American diaspora community remittances respectively, to militarily survive against

government forces and in turn wage a civil war. Similarly, ethnic political and economic

inequalities were evident in both countries, which created anger among the disadvantaged

Gios and Monos and Tamils. As a result, both cases erupted into civil war and thus affirm the

relationship between this essay’s two independent and dependant variables.

However, a word of caution with this essay must be acknowledged over difficulties of dual

comparisons: By purposefully taking only two case studies, this essay benefitted from in-

depth analysis, however at the expense of generalisability. Thus, it is difficult to extrapolate

broad conclusions. This is particularly evident among civil war conditions in Latin America,

where ethnicity is less salient in society (although acute group political and economic

inequalities still exist) (Tranekaer 2012: 17). Therefore, large n studies similar to Collier and

Hoffler (2004) should be undertaken in the future to increase generalisability.

In sum, this essay has examined the conditions in which civil wars occur. After defining and

contextualising key terms, this essay used a most different systems design to maximise the

differentiation between case studies and benefit from in-depth analysis. It examined two case

studies, Liberia and Sri Lanka, because of their stark geographic, cultural, historical and

demographic differences. This essay then examined theoretical discussions of conditions of

civil wars in line with the academic literature and followed with case studies. Afterwards, it

comparatively discussed both cases and analysed how they both exemplified the two stated

conditions for civil war. It concluded with a word of caution on generalisability. Therefore, as

this essay has shown, civil wars occur under the conditions of a rebel financial capability to

fight and political and economic ethnic inequality.

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