Understanding Falkenmark’s Concept of Water Crowding in the Context of Limpopo Province South Africa:

Facing the Human Security Dilemma

Anthony TurtonPresentation to the Royal Swedish Academy of Science

Stockholm 21 October 2011

tony@anthonyturton.comImage: Anthony Turton 2011.

Polokwane, South Africa. Each white cross represents a farm murder since the advent of democracy in 1994.

Layout of Presentation

• Water Crowding as a concept.• Statistics for the Limpopo River basin in

South Africa.• Recent developments that raise alarm.

– Could Water Crowding become a driver of Genocide?

• Conclusion– My Hypothesis of Water Crowding as a Possible

Driver of Genocide.

Water Crowding as a Concept

Source: Pallett et al., 1997

Malin Falkenmark developed the concept of Water Crowding in the 1980’s. Also known as the Hydraulic Density of Population, this index has now become a global benchmark for

sustainability.

No empirical evidence exists of a stable political system and economy with a Water Crowding Index above 2,000 – an exception being Israel (a highly technological society

with massive external support from the USA). This shifts the focus to technology, because theoretically it is possible to grow economies beyond the “Water Barrier” if smart policies

induce technological solutions. This also raises the issue of leadership.

Water Crowding Index (Ashton et al., 2008)

2 3662 0092 3101 9334 97418 7901 80319 502

WCIPopulation2025

1 376 1 165 Maputo1 552 1 122 Incomati4 21911 906 Limpopo1 18311 319 Orange-Senqu

WCIPopulation2000

River Basin

Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic metres of water

South Africa will be defying global indicators if it attains sustained economic growth and social stability with these hydrological

fundamentals.

Remember, little empirical evidence exists of social stability and economic development above a value of 2000.

100200300400500600700800900

10001250150020002500

Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)

0 250 500 km

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

SOUTHAFRICA

ZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE

ANGOLA

D. R. C. TANZANIA

MOZABIQUE

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

MALAWI

= 860 mm isohyet

= World average rainfall

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm

© PJ Ashton

South Africa has a water-constrained economy – in 2004 98% of the national water resource had been allocated at a high Assurance of Supply level – so we function at

the very limits of sustainability.The Limpopo River basin is over-allocated so it is

closed.

Characteristics of Closed Basins

Closed River Basins in Southern Africa

• Water resources have been over-allocated so competition is high.• Economic development potential is severely constrained.•Job creation is limited.•Sustainable livelihoods are under pressure.•Can state failure be linked to water crowding?•Can water crowding trigger genocide?

Source: Turton et al., 2008.

Percentage Increase in Water Needs by sector - 2025 (Ashton, 2009)

River Basin Urban Rural IrrigationMining + Industry

Power Generation

Forestry

2000 to 2025

Orange-Senqu + 77 - 10 - 7 - 10 + 37 0

Limpopo + 146 + 27 + 9 + 30 + 26 + 3

Incomati + 145 + 3 + 5 + 5 0 + 5

Maputo + 126 - 3 - 3 + 1 0 - 4

1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins

2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange-Senqu and Limpopo basins

3. Increased water demands from rural and mining sectors in Limpopo basin

The Limpopo River Basin, already over-allocated by about 120%, has an extremely high WCI, and is facing a 241%

increase in demand by 2025.

Could this trigger social instability and become the genesis of state failure or genocide?

Understanding the Rwanda Genocide• The resource scarcity was land (and not water).• Driven by population growth.• Cultural practice dictated that a man could only marry once he had

enough land to sustain his wife and family.• Inheritance customs resulted in smaller parcels of land.• Genocide reset the clock.• Build-up was characterized by mass mobilization driven by populist

sloganeering.• The word “Cockroaches” was used in this rhetoric.• Masses were programmed to kill. • The world failed to intervene for a variety of reasons.• The daily killing rate exceeded that of the Holocaust for the duration of

the event (Ohlsson, 1999).

Populist rhetoric is labelling opposition

members as “cockroaches” and

other vermin that is normally

“exterminated”.

Genocide Watch International• Placed South Africa on Stage 5 (Polarization Phase) in 2002

because of the systematic and indiscriminate killing of white commercial farmers (the image on the Title slide).

• 900 Farmers were attacked and 140 were killed in 2001.• 1991 – 2001 saw 5,594 attacks on white farmers with 1,000

murders. • Per capita murder rate against white farmers is 311 per

100,000 in 2001, with 2.2% ethno-European farmers having been killed by then, 12% having been attacked.

• 15 Sept 2011 Genocide Watch downgrades South Africa to Stage 6 (Preparation) citing Julius Malema’s “Kill the Boer” campaign.

• The ruling party refuses to back off on claims that this is a “struggle song” to be protected as a cultural right.

• President Zuma continues to sing “Umshini Wami”.

Is Julius Malema Genocidal?

Is President Zuma’s Leadership Conducive to Genocide?

President Zuma’s theme song for re-

election is “Awuleth Umshini

Wami” which means “Bring back my Machine Gun”.

The population

is brutalized with a

collective lack of

empathy

Xenophobic attacks

persist in 2011

Xenophobic violence

erupted in South Africa in 2007 and was accompanied by extreme

brutality

Is This The Road to Anarchy?Protests in Johannesburg Aug/Sept 2011 supporting Malema’s right to sing “Kill the Boer” after court ruling

that this is hate speech.

Such scenes are reminiscent of the time just prior to the

democratic transition in 1994. (See Shaking Hands

with Billy for details)

The answers might lie in Limpopo Province

Water constraints to economic development are profound.

Malema is now calling for “regime change” in Botswana, the one country that might give

access to the Zambezi River, and thus relief in the future.

Image: Anthony Turton

This is where Julius Malema comes from and this is where his grass-roots support is based

Conclusion• Water is posing finite constraints to economic

development in the Limpopo Basin.• Social Ingenuity is needed to solve these fundamental

problems.• This is not being allowed to grow because of the

leadership meltdown and institutional collapse.• Zuma’s leadership is based on the raw emotion of

“Umshini Wami” which glorifies armed violence.• Malema’s leadership style resonates with the millions

of disaffected youth and creates a discernable “enemy”.• Farm killings continue with no evidence emerging that

the police force is regarding this as a credible threat.

This can result in xenophobic violence or

genocide where a clearly defined “enemy” exists.

Water Scarcity inhibits economic growth.

Driving poverty and raising frustration levels.

Which are exploited by political leadership by identifying an easily

defined “enemy”.In the absence of wise

national leadership and a credible police force.

Leadership and the capacity of the state to mobilize social capital is

the critical variable.

Hypothesis

While I have been sceptical about the notion of genocide in South Africa, I am starting to see evidence of state failure, and the growth of xenophobic violence

has to be taken seriously.

I no longer believe that genocide is impossible in South Africa, and I am starting to believe that Malin

Falkenmark’s notion of a “Water Barrier” has a lot of hidden truths still to be explored by serious scientists.

Thank YouAnd I hope I am wrong!

Image: Anthony Turton 2011.

http://www.shakinghandswithbilly.com