understanding past temperature changes - update of modeling results -
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Understanding past temperature changes - Update of modeling results -. Ulrike Langematz. GRIPS ozone perturbation studies CCMVal ongoing activities CCMVal future plans. GRIPS ozone perturbation studies. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Freie Universität Berlin
Understanding past temperature changes- Update of modeling results -
Ulrike Langematz
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Freie Universität Berlin
GRIPS ozone perturbation studies CCMVal ongoing activities CCMVal future plans
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Freie Universität Berlin
How much of the observed stratospheric thermal and dynamical changes can be attributed to stratospheric ozone changes?
GRIPS ozone perturbation studies
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Freie Universität Berlin
Models for ozone change studies
GCMs: Atmospheric General Circulation Models, integrated with prescribed ozone perturbations
• from observations (Langematz, 2000; Rosier and Shine, 2000; Ramaswamy and Schwarzkopf, 2003; Langematz et al., 2003)
• from offline-CTM calculations (Stolarski et al.; Schwarzkopf et al.)
GCMs with parametrized chemistry (calculated ozone change) (Rind et al., 1998; Shindell et al., 2001)
CCMs: Chemistry Climate Models with interactive chemistry modules (calculated ozone change)
(Austin, 2002; Manzini et al., 2003, ….)
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Freie Universität Berlin
GCM Ozone perturbations studies
Experimental design
20 year time slice experiments with modified O3 and CO2 in FUB-CMAM
„Change“ ≙ statistical, mean difference 2000 minus 1980
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
(WMO, 1998)
Observed O3 trends 1979-1997
Ozone perturbations: Observed trends 1980-2000Constructed O3 trends for GCM
(Langematz, 2000)
annual mean
Two zonal mean ozone trend datasets available:
• Randel and Wu, 2000 • Langematz, 2000
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Freie Universität Berlin
Annual and global mean temperature change due to observed O3 trend
Freie Universität Berlin
Shine et al., 2003
Models using Height-Resolved Observed Ozone Trends Dataset
– 1.25 to – 2.3 K/dec
– 0.25 to – 0.45 K/dec
GCM Ozone Perturbation Studies
SSU 1979-2003
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
Shine et al., 2003
Models using Height-Resolved Observed Ozone Trends Dataset
Annual mean temperature change at 50 hPa
?
GCM Ozone Perturbation Studies
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Freie Universität Berlin
GCM integrations with prescribed ozone changes
• do not reproduce the observed upper stratosphere cooling.
• do reproduce the weak middle atmosphere cooling.
• do not reproduce the lower stratosphere global mean cooling.
• do not reproduce the lower stratosphere mid-latitude cooling.
Main results
Missing processes? GHG? H2O?
Missing feedback? CCMs?
GCM Ozone Perturbation Studies
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Freie Universität Berlin
2 Goals:
Model assessment Model improvement If model agreement Climate change assessment
GRIPS Task 3c
Coordinated GCM experiments of the period 1980-2000
with prescribed observed ozone changes
GRIPS: GCM Realitiy Intercomparison Project for SPARC (Coordinators: Steven Pawson and Kunihiko Kodera)
Extension of Shine et al., 2003, with focus on dynamics
GCM Ozone Perturbation Studies
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Freie Universität Berlin
The GRIPS 3c task
Perform two 20 year equilibrium GCM integrations• 1980 control-run • 2000 „ozone change“ run
Only difference between runs: prescribed ozone distribution for radiation code
• 1980: 1980 ozone climatology (zonal & monthly mean)• 2000: 1980 ozone climatology +observed trends 1980-2000
Ozone climatology and trends available from• Langematz (2000) • Randel and Wu (2000)
GCM Ozone Perturbation Studies
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
GRIPS Task 3c
New models
CCSR/NIES AGCM • Version 5.7b • T42 L55 (0-83 km)
• O3: climatology and trends: L(2000)
WACCM • NCAR CCM3 + TIME-GCM (Sassi et al. 2002) • T63 L66 (0-140 km)
• O3: climatology and trends: R&W (2000)
Kyushu University GCM • T21L37 (0-83 km) (Miyahara et al., 1995) • O3: climatology and trends: L(2000)
MRI/JMA98 Model • T42 L45 (0-83 km) (Shibata et al., 1999) • O3: AMIP climatology, R&W (2000) trends
New in 2005:
NASA-GSFC: 2 sets of runs using R&W and L- ozone trends (Steven Pawson) UMCAM (Peter Braesicke)
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Freie Universität Berlin
WACCMNIESMRIKUFUB
Freie Universität Berlin
Annual and global mean temperature change(K/decade)
GRIPS Task 3c
–0.9 to –1.5 K/dec
– 0.25 to – 0.48 K/dec
altit
ude
[km
]
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
Annual mean temperature change (K/decade)
SSU-satellite data, 1979-97
Scaife et al., 2000
FUB
KU NIES
WACCM MRI
GRIPS Task 3c
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
Annual mean temperature change (K/decade)
FUB
KU NIES
WACCM MRI
GRIPS Task 3c
SSU-satellite data, 1979-03
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Freie Universität Berlin
Lower stratosphere temperature change in NH mid-latitudesK/decade
Freie Universität Berlin
FUB-analyses 1979-2000
• Models do not show uniform response. Model deficit? • No model is able to reproduce mid-latitude temperature decrease. No ozone effect!
FUB
KU NIES
WACCM MRI
GRIPS Task 3c
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Freie Universität BerlinFreie Universität Berlin
NCEP-data: 1979-2000
Lower stratosphere temperature change at high latitudes(K/decade)
FUB
KU
WACCM
NIES
MRI
• Models show different cooling due to SH spring ozone depletion. Radiation code? Ozone?• No model reproduces observed NH polar spring cooling. No ozone effect.
GRIPS Task 3c
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Freie Universität Berlin
Summary
GCM ozone perturbation experiments:
- show consistent response to ozone perturbations- show global stratospheric cooling due to ozone
depletion
- do not explain polar lower stratosphere cooling in NH spring
- do not explain mid-latitude cooling in lower stratosphere
No uniform dynamical signal
Work in progress
GRIPS Task 3c
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Freie Universität Berlin
Phase 1: Analysis of existing, uncoordinated CCM simulations of the period 1980-1999
different CCMs ! different experimental setups !
Validation of model results by comparison with observations
Goal: Definition of model deficits and suggestions for improvements
Quality and consistency of observational datasets?
CCMVal ongoing activities
CCMVal: CCM Validation activity for SPARC
Funded by EC-project SCOUT-O3 (Stratosphere-Climate Links With Emphasis On The UTLS)
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Freie Universität Berlin
Previous CCM studies
Annual and global mean temperature change
Shine et al., 2003
Coupled chemistry models
CCMVal ongoing activities
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Freie Universität Berlin
SCOUT-O3:Participating Chemistry-Climate Models (CCMs)
Acronym Resolution Experiments
EC39T30 (3.75°x3.75°)
L39 (10 hPa, 30 km)
1980-1999
(CFC, GHG, sol, volc, nud-QBO, AMIP-SST)
FUBCMAM CHEMT21 (5.6°x5.6°)
L34 (0.0068 hPa, 83 km)
1980-1999
([CFC], GHG, AMIP-SST)
MAECHAM4CHEMT30 (3.75°x3.75°)
L39 (0.01 hPa, 80 km)
1980-1999
(CFC, GHG, sol, volc, nud-QBO, AMIP-SST)
UMETRAC3.75º x 2.5º
L64 (0.01 hPa, 80 km)
1980-1999
(CFC, GHG, QBO, AMIP-SST)
UMUCAM3.75º x 2.5º
L58 (0.1 hPa, 63 km)
„1990“
(AMIP-SST)
UMSLIMCAT3.75º x 2.5º
L58 (0.1 hPa, 63 km)
1980-1999
(CFC, GHG, QBO, AMIP-SST)
SOCOL
LMD
UiO
U Aquila
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Freie Universität Berlin
to do:
CCMVal ongoing activities
update Shine et al. CCM figure for CCMval models
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Freie Universität Berlin
Some results from tropical analyses
CCMVal ongoing activities
Performed within SCOUT-O3 (Workpackage 1.9) at FUB
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Temperature
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Freie Universität Berlin
Temperature trends 1980-1999
Identical forcings in both CCMsSimilar model formulation
Top at 10 hPa (30 km)High vert. res. in UTLS
Top at 0.01 hPa (80 km)Coarser vert. Res. in UTLS
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Tropopause Temperature
–
–
–
–
–
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Freie Universität Berlin
Temperature trend at 70 hPa
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Freie Universität Berlin
still to be done:
Global, annual mean temperature trend from CCMVal CCMs (Shine et al. 2003 figure)
CCMVal ongoing activities
appropriate observational data set ?
linear vs. multiple regression analysis ?
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Freie Universität Berlin
CCMVal future plans
Coordinated reference and scenario CCM simulations for UNEP/WMO2006 Ozone Assessement
Reference simulation for 1980-2050
Identical forcings (provided on CCMVal webpage)
Analyse temperature change in these runs