understanding the “arab spring”: public opinion in the arab … · 2014-03-21 · bahrain,...

Understanding the “Arab Spring”:

Public Opinion in the Arab World

Craig Charney

Presentation to

Center for Strategic and

International Studies

Washington, DC

January 26, 2012

2

Sources National Opinion Polls

This presentation is based on scientific, national, randomly-sampled opinion surveys taken in Arabic by trained

local interviewers and polling groups.

Charney Research Polls:

• March 2011 – Egypt (615 respondents)

• August 2010 – Lebanon (1000 respondents),

Palestine (1019 respondents)

• July 2009 – Palestine (2402 respondents)

• July 2008 – Lebanon (1800 respondents)

• Oct 2008 – Yemen (1304 respondents), Saudi

Arabia (1199 respondents), Algeria (1199

respondents), Egypt (1205 respondents)

Other Polls:

• Spring 2011 – Gallup World Poll: Syria, Egypt,

Yemen, Palestine, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon,

Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE

(1000 respondents each)

• April 2011 – Pew Research Center: Egypt, Jordan,

Lebanon (1000 respondents each)

• October 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Qatar

(1000 respondents), UAE (1000 respondents), Kuwait

(1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000 respondents)

• April 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Bahrain (1000

respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents), Syria

(1000 respondents), Tunisia (2000 respondents)

• March 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Algeria (1000

respondents), Egypt (2000 respondents), Saudi

Arabia (1000 respondents), Libya (1000

respondents), Morocco (1000 respondents)

• Feb 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000

respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents)

• Feb 2010 – Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000

respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents)

• July 2010 – Shibley Telhami, University of Maryland:

Egypt (818 respondents), Saudi Arabia (812

respondents), UAE (512 respondents), Morocco

(816 respondents), Lebanon (509 respondents),

Jordan (509 respondents)

• 2010 – Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine

(1100 respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents),

Egypt (1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000

respondents)

• 2009 – Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine (1100

respondents), Egypt (1000 respondents)

• August 2009 – IRI Poll: Jordan (1000

respondents)

• August 2009 – Greenberg Poll: Egypt (800

respondents)

• Jordan (1000 respondents )

• Fall 2006 – Arab Barometer Survey: Morocco

(1277 respondents), Kuwait (750 respondents)

• Spring 2006 – Arab Barometer Survey:

Palestine (1270 respondents), Jordan (1142

respondents)

• 2000: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators

Database

Today’s Presentation

• Distinguishing Factors: Economic and Political

• Common Elements: Political and Economic

• New Media

• Post-Revolutionary Conditions

• Post-Revolutionary Elections

• Religious Institutions and Identity

• International Issues

3

4

Upheavals occurred where the fewest were thriving;

stability prevailed where the most were.

Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011

Distinguishing Factors

Percent “thriving”

Group 1:

Major Upheaval

Group 2:

Spring 2011 Instability

Group 3:

Stable

Country Thriving

%

Country Thriving

%

Country Thriving

%

Syria 3% Morocco 9% Kuwait 45%

Egypt 6% Algeria 18% Qatar 48%

Bahrain 7% Lebanon 18% Saudi Arabia 50%

Yemen 11% Jordan 28% UAE 58%

Libya 14%

Tunisia 16%

Group 1

Average 10%

Group 2

Average 18%

Group 3

Average 50%

5

The countries in upheaval saw significant drops in the proportions

of citizens thriving in the past three years, unlike the rest.

Gallup World Poll 2007-2011

Distinguishing Factors

Group 1 Countries

Country

%

Thriving

(2009)

%

Thriving

(2010)

%

Thriving

(2011)

Syria 21% 10% 3%

Egypt 25%* 11% 6%

Yemen 17% 12% 11%

Libya 24% 14% N/A

Tunisia 25%* 14% 16%

Bahrain 40% 27% 7%

*Egypt and Tunisia from 2007-2008 – more tracking data available

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Group 1 Average

Group 2 Average

Group 3 Average

25%

20%

50%

15% 20%

50%

8%

18%

50%

2009 2010 2011

Average thriving: 2009*-2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average

34% 35%

66%

The countries most dissatisfied with job creation tended

to be the least stable (Groups 1 and 2).

Distinguishing Factors: Economic

In your country, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the efforts to increase the number of quality jobs?

(Satisfied only)

6 Gallup World Poll 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


29%

18%

12%

Countries with more poverty had more unrest.

7

Have there been times in the last 12 months when you did not have enough money to buy the food that you

or your family needed?

(Yes only)

Gallup World Poll 2010-2011


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


25%

43%

75%

Dissatisfaction with the local economy was also

closely linked to instability. Right now, do you think the economic conditions in the city or area in which you live, as a whole, are

getting better or worse?

(Better only)

8 Gallup World Poll 2010-2011


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


13%

20% 21%

Regimes fell in countries where people felt the

most voiceless. Have you voiced your opinion to a public official (in the last month)?

(Yes only)


Distinguishing Factors: Political

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Group 1 Average

Group 2 Average

Group 3 Average

61% 61%

21%

Perceptions of widespread corruption and reported problems

were more common in Groups 1 and 2 – the less stable countries. Is corruption widespread throughout the

government in your country?

(Yes only)

10 Gallup World Poll 2010-2011


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Group 1 Average

Group 2 Average

Group 3 Average

44% 48%

21%

Paid bribe to official for service in past year

(Yes only)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


55% 50%

80%

Lack of confidence in the rule of law was

linked to instability. In your country do you have confidence in the judicial system and the courts?

(Yes only)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


48%

34%

58%

Countries where elections were seen as rigged

also were less stable. In your country do you have confidence in the honesty of elections?

(Yes only)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


47%

36%

67%

Countries where mistrust of domestic media was

higher (Groups 1 and 2) were more unstable. In your country do you have confidence in the quality and integrity of the media?

(Yes only)



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


83% 79% 77%

14

There is a strong desire for democracy

across the region.

CR 2008, Arab Barometer 2006

Percent preferring a democratic system of government

Common Elements: Political

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


79%

65% 73%

15

Majorities throughout the Arab world believe today

that democracy is compatible with Islam. Democracy compatible with Islam

(Yes only)


Pew 2007, 2009, 2010; CR 2008,

Arab Barometer 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Group 1 Average* Group 2 Average Group 3 Average

55% 60%

54%

The majority of citizens said political change should

be peaceful in Arab countries (except Libya).


Some people believe that groups that are oppressed and are suffering from injustice can improve their situation by

peaceful means ALONE. Others do not believe that peaceful means ALONE will work to improve the situation for

such oppressed groups. What do you believe?

(Believe peaceful means ALONE only)

16 Gallup World Poll 2010 *Libya: 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


68%

85%

76%

17

A consensus across the region favors foreign trade

and globalization.

Pew 2010, 2009; CR 2008

Common Elements: Economic

Percent saying greater foreign trade is good

18

Internet access is lower in the less stable countries – while it is

nearly universal in the most stable (and developed).

Gallup World Poll 2010

New Media

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


28% 34%

81%

Does your home have internet access?

(Yes only)

19

Mobile phones have become almost ubiquitous in the Arab

world, where very few had them a decade ago.

Gallup World Poll 2010, ICT 2000

New Media

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


7% 13% 23%

2000 2011

Does your home have a cellular phone?

(Yes only)

86% 89%

99%

20

The key news medium in the region is television, though

internet and print matter in some countries.

Telhami 2010

New Media

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia

86% 95%

64% 57%

50%

88%

9% 1%

9% 15%

20%

9% 5% 1%

12% 15% 19%

3% 3%

14% 12% 12%

Television Internet Newspapers/magazines Radio

What is your primary source for international news?

21

Al Jazeera leads as an international news source, but MBC, Al

Arabiya, and Egyptian TV also have large audiences.

New Media

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia

31%

65%

24% 20% 15%

41%

54%

14%

1% 9%

5%

9%

21%

14% 16%

12%

4%

1%

6%

3%

10%

30%

Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya

When you watch international news, which of the following networks do you watch most often?

Telhami 2010

22

There was enormous hope and optimism in Egypt and

Tunisia following the revolutions in those countries.

CR 2011, 2008; Pew 2011,

EMRHOD 2011

Post-Revolutionary Conditions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Egypt 2008

Egypt March 2011

Tunisia April 2011

27%

82% 79%

61%

10% 14%

Right direction Wrong direction

Generally speaking, do you think things in

[Egypt/Tunisia] are going in the right direction or

wrong direction?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

57%

79%

16% 15%

27%

6%

Optimistic Pessimistic Neither/Don't know

How do you feel about

the future?

(Tunisia)

Are you optimistic or pessimistic

about the future of the country?

(Egypt)

Egypt

March 2011

Tunisia

April 2011

23

Egyptians and Tunisians saw their countries’ biggest problems as the

economy and security; corruption and democracy ranked lower.

CR 2011, IRI 2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40% 35%

22%

8% 7% 5%

Biggest national problem

(mentioned by 5% or more) Egypt (Mar)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40% 39% 37%

7% 8%

Tunisia (Apr)

Post-Revolutionary Conditions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2005 2011

21%

62%

24

Voter turnout soared as Egyptians could vote freely, but

dropped as Tunisians were no longer coerced to vote.

Official turnout

Egypt Turnout Tunisia Turnout

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2009 2011

89%

52%

Post-Revolutionary Elections

25

After the revolutions, political parties were unknown to

large proportions of Egyptians and Tunisians.

CR 2011, EMRHOD 2011

0% 50% 100%

58%

63%

59%

41%

39% Freedom and

Justice Party

Wafd Party

Al Ghad Party

Tagammu Party

Al Nour Party

Egypt – June 2011

Party familiarity – top 5 parties

(Don’t know only)

0% 50% 100%

Don't know any

Ettajdid

PDP

Ennahda

61%

92%

88%

71%

Tunisia – April 2011

Party familiarity – top 3 parties

(Don’t know only)


26

Moderate Islamists took two-fifths of the vote in Egypt

and Tunisia, Salafis one-fifth more in Egypt.


Ennahada (Islamist)

37%

Secular Parties

25%

Minor Parties and

Lists 32%

Blank ballots

6%

Freedom and

Justice (Islamist)

37%

Al Nour (Salafis)

27% Other

Islamists 4%

Ex-NDP 5%

Secular Parties

27%

Parliamentary Election Results

(votes)

Official results

Tunisia

Oct 2011

Egypt*

Nov-Dec 2011

*1st + 2nd Rounds

27

In Egypt, undecideds broke decisively for the Islamists

as the election approached.


15% 16%

50% 56% 54%

42%

29%

31%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011

Gallup 2011

Freedom and Justice Party

(Muslim Brotherhood)

5%

7%

31%

60% 57%

58%

35% 36%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011

Al Nour Party

(Salafis)

Oppose

Don’t know

Support

Oppose

Don’t know

Support

28

Turkey’s political system is the most popular political

model among Egyptians, followed by Europe.

Telhami 2011

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Iran

Morocco

United States

China

Saudi Arabia

Germany, France, UK

Turkey

1%

2%

5%

8%

8%

22%

44%

If Egypt’s political system looked like that of one of the following

countries, which one would you prefer it to be?


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


81% 79% 84%

29

Confidence in religious institutions is far higher across

the region than that in political institutions.

Gallup World Poll 2010

Religious Institutions and Identity

In your country do you have confidence in the religious organizations?

(Yes only)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia

82% 80% 75%

86%

30

There is broad support for banning criticism of Islam and

harsh Sharia punishments in several Arab countries.

CR 2008, Pew 2010


Some people say the law should prohibit criticism of

Islam or other religions. Would you agree or disagree?

(Agree only)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

77%

58%

13%

84% 86%

6%

Views of Sharia punishments

(Favor only)

Egypt Jordan Lebanon Egypt Jordan Lebanon

Cut hands for theft Death for apostasy

31

Tension between Sunni and Shia, and Muslim and

Christian, is strong in a number of countries.

CR 2008


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


15%

4%

25% 20%

77%

56%

75% 74%

Favorable Unfavorable

Is your opinion of Shia Muslims favorable or

unfavorable?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


4%

16% 21%

15%

87%

52%

79% 78%

Is your opinion of Christians favorable or

unfavorable?

32

Suicide bombing is generally rejected across the

region.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

64%

55%

71%

Suicide bombing is never justified to defend Islam

(Agree)

Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2011


33

Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Iran’s president, is not

very popular with most Arabs.

Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008

International Issues

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


26% 30% 28%

Percent favorable to Ahmedinejad

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


24% 24% 27%

34

Favorability to America’s leadership is low throughout

the region, despite Barack Obama as president. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the USA?

(Approve only)

Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011


35

Views of the UN are mixed, with greater popularity in

countries touched by its work for the Palestinians.

Pew 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008,

2009; Greenberg 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lebanon Egypt Algeria Kuwait Saudi Arabia

Jordan Morocco Yemen

65%

54% 50%

41%

35% 35%

20% 18%

Percent favorable to UN


understanding the “arab spring”: public opinion in the arab … · 2014-03-21 · bahrain,...

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