UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments

Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments

Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOPUniversity of Dakar (SENEGAL)

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

What do we mean by…..?What do we mean by…..? Just ways to produce V&A studies The main methodologies/frameworks

The « first generation »: IPCC guidelines 1994CGE work; synthesis of first V&A studies ; weakness of adaptation strategiesThe « second generation »: 2002-2003– the Adaptation Policy Framework; « adaptation oriented »– The NAPAs– Uncertainty-Risk decision making tools : the UKCIP

methodology

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al.,

1994)

The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al.,

1994)Define problem

Select method

Test method/sensitivity

Select scenarios

Assess impacts

Assess autonomous adjustments

Evaluate adaptation strategies

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UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 1: Define the problem

Goals of the assessmentExposure units to be studied (sectors, ecosystems,..)Study area (administrative, geographical, ecological units, …)Time frame (time horizons)Data needs : identify data requirements (type, source, quantity, quality,…)The context of the study: political, economic, global changes, etc.

Step 2: Select the method

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 2: Select the method

ExperimentationModels : biophysical, economic, integratedAnalogues : historical, geographicalExpert judgement

Step 3: Test the method Step 4: Select the scenarios

The baselines: climatological, environmental, socio-economicThe scenarios : mainly climate change scenarios (MAGICC-SCENGEN), environmental and socio-economic projections

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The IPCC GuidelinesThe IPCC Guidelines Step 5: Assess the impacts

Qualitative assessmentsThe use of models (CERES, Bruun rule, WATBAL, Holdride)Economic impacts : cost benefit analysis

Step 6: Assess autonomous adjustments Step 7: Evaluate adaptation strategies

The seven steps approach

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Evaluation of adaptation strategiesEvaluation of adaptation strategies

Define objectives

Specify important impacts

Identify adaptation options

Examine constraints

Quantify measures/formulate alternative strategies

Weight objectives/evaluate trade-offs

Recommend adaptation measures

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UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The IPCC methodologyThe IPCC methodology

A number of derived methodologiesThe USCSPThe UNEP Handbook

Applied in a number of V&A studies, and particularly in the Initial National Communications of Non Annex I Countries

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Other approachesOther approaches The small islands approach, especially in the

Pacific: sparsity of data, the importance of traditional knowledge

The vulnerability-resilience approach (Kay et al., 1993) applied in the coastal zone. The coastal zone was considered to be made of hard and soft systems. Vulnerability was ranked from –3 to 0 and resilience from 0 to +3. The difference between the two being called the Sustainable Capacity Index

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

A rapid evolutionA rapid evolution The CGE work based on synthesis and analysis

of V&A studies The growing recognition of the importance of

adaptation for NAI countries A context of more frequent extreme events First recognition of the need to integrate

adaptation strategies into planning development Greater exchange with other communities:

disaster, risk and uncertainty managers

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

As a resultAs a result The new guidelines for the preparation of

national communications of Non Annex I Partieshttp://unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf

A number of new methodologies, approaches, frameworks: the so-called « second generation » methodologies

The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF)The National Adaptation Programmes of ActionsThe UKCIP « Climate change risk-uncertainty-decision making framework

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The second generation methodologies : What’s new ?

The second generation methodologies : What’s new ?

Less prescriptive Better centered on adaptation Consider adaptation in the development context Include stakeholders participation Take into consideration current as well as future

vulnerability

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The Adaptation Policy FrameworkThe Adaptation Policy Framework Developed by an interdisciplinary team under UNDP Propose practical guidance to develop an

adaptation strategy for climate change Based on a 5 steps approach Supported by 9 Technical Papers With a User’s Guidebook already available (2003) http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The Adaptation Policy Framework

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The NAPAsThe NAPAs The objective is to develop action programmes

adressing the current and urgent needs of LDCs in adaptation to climate change

Annotated Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)

http://unfccc.int/text/program/sd/ldc/documents/annguide.pdf

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Set up the teams

SynthesisParticipative evaluation of current vulnerability

Public consultation to identify potential adaptation actions

Define criteria

Prioritization of actions

Design projects

Submission and dissemination

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

The UKCIP method: CC risk, uncertainty and decision-

making framework

The UKCIP method: CC risk, uncertainty and decision-

making framework The main objectives are to allow decision

makers toTake in account risk and uncertainty associated with climate variability and future climate changeIdentify good adaptation options, in particular no regret options

Framework in 8 stages http://www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert/

risk_uncert.html

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Identify problem

Define decision-making criteria

Assess risks

Identify optionsAppraise options

Monitor

Implement decision

Criteria met?Yes

Problem definition?

NoNoYes

Make decision

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

New/improved toolsNew/improved tools

Regional climate change scenarios The AIACC project Vulnerability indices Improved models New sectors emerged (health for example)

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

You want more?You want more?

Look at the « Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change »

http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004

Thanks for your attention !Thanks for your attention !