1

11

Glimpses of the FutureGlimpses of the FutureDavid Cossey, Union College (NY)David Cossey, Union College (NY)

CCCU Technology Conference 2006CCCU Technology Conference 2006Cedarville UniversityCedarville University

Cedarville, OhioCedarville, Ohio

Thursday Thursday -- June 1, 2006June 1, 2006

22

www1.union.edu/~cosseydwww1.union.edu/~cosseyd

The The pdfpdf files for the slides are files for the slides are available at the address available at the address

aboveabove

33

David V. CosseyDavid V. CosseyBA, The KingBA, The King’’s Colleges CollegeMA, Lehigh UniversityMA, Lehigh UniversityMS, University of Rhode IslandMS, University of Rhode Island

Chief Information Officer, Union Chief Information Officer, Union College (NY)College (NY)Director of Computing and Director of Computing and Instructional Technology, The Instructional Technology, The Wharton School at the University of Wharton School at the University of PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaBarrington College, Director of Barrington College, Director of Computer ServicesComputer Services

44

Union CollegeUnion CollegeSchenectady, New YorkSchenectady, New York

www.union.eduwww.union.edu

Founded 1795Founded 17952,100 students2,100 studentsLiberal ArtsLiberal ArtsEngineering programs since 1845Engineering programs since 1845InnovativeInnovative

55

OutlineOutline

PreliminariesPreliminariesWhere have we come Where have we come from?from?Where are we?Where are we?Where are we going?Where are we going?““Are we there yet?Are we there yet?””

66Library of Congress-April 16, 2002

“Nothing could be more misleading than the claim that computer technology introduced the age of information.

The printing press began that age in the early sixteenth century. . . .

Fifty years after the press was invented, more than eight million books had been printed, almost all of them filled with information that had previously been unavailable to the average person.” Neil Postman

in Technolopoly,p. 61

2

77

Going,Going,GoingGoing

Gone!Gone!

So that we put things in So that we put things in perspectiveperspective

88

GoingGoing

99

Going Going -- Slide Projectors and . . .Slide Projectors and . . .

. . . and APS camerasTimes-Union, January 14, 2004

1010

A last look?A last look?

1111

GoneGone

Records Records –– 33 1/3, 33 1/3, 4545’’s, 78s, 78’’ss88--track tapetrack tape

1212

GOING?? GOING?? -- Reading at RiskReading at Risk

http://www.arts.gov/pub/ReadingAtRisk.pdf

““Reading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in AmericaReading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in America””National Endowment for the ArtsNational Endowment for the Arts

3

1313

Decline in Book Sales Decline in Book Sales --20032003

23 million fewer books 23 million fewer books sold in 2003 over 2002sold in 2003 over 20022.222 Billion books in 2.222 Billion books in 200320032.245 Billion books in 2.245 Billion books in 20022002Greater competition Greater competition ––““magazines, cable radio, magazines, cable radio, music and moviesmusic and movies””Times-Union, Sunday, May 16, 2004, page J5

1414

1515

From From ComputerWorldComputerWorld55--2222--20062006

in celebration of the 2000in celebration of the 2000thth issueissue

1616

Some PreliminariesSome Preliminaries

1717

““How Much InformationHow Much Information”” reportreport

Originally released in 2000Originally released in 2000Revised October 2003Revised October 2003From the University of California at From the University of California at BerkeleyBerkeley’’s School of Information s School of Information Management and SystemsManagement and SystemsFull report Full report –– 100 pages100 pageshttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/researchttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/howh/projects/how--muchmuch--infoinfo--2003/2003/

1818

Measures of SizeMeasures of Size

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000ZettaByteZettaByte (ZB)(ZB)

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000YottaByteYottaByte (YB)(YB)

1,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000ExaByteExaByte (EB)(EB)

1,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000PetaBytePetaByte (PB)(PB)

1,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000TeraByteTeraByte (TB)(TB)

1,000,000,0001,000,000,000GigaByteGigaByte (GB)(GB)

1,000,0001,000,000MegaByteMegaByte (MB)(MB)

1,000 (actually 1,024)1,000 (actually 1,024)KiloByteKiloByte

SizeSizeTermTerm

Source: “How Much Information” report, 2000.

4

1919

Some ExamplesSome Examples2 2 PetabytesPetabytes(2,000,000,000,000,000) (2,000,000,000,000,000) -- all all US academic research librariesUS academic research libraries

5 5 ExabytesExabytes(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)--all words ever spoken by human all words ever spoken by human beingsbeings

Source: “How Much Information” report, 2003.

2020

How big is big?How big is big?

1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica Britannica 1 Terabyte 1 Terabyte (1,000,000,000,000)(1,000,000,000,000)

Source: The Internet Archive: Building an ‘Internet Library’ – December 2001

2121

When is the When is the rightright time to time to deploy a given technology?deploy a given technology?

We are confronted with this We are confronted with this challenge all the timechallenge all the time

2222Kennebec River – Bath, Maine - Summer of 2003

When is the When is the rightright time to deploy a given time to deploy a given technology?technology?

2323

2424

““. . . have to decide. . . have to decidewhen to playwhen to play””

--George HickmanGeorge HickmanCIO, Albany Medical CenterCIO, Albany Medical Center

5

2525

Technology continues to be . . . Technology continues to be . . .

Faster!Faster!cheaper!cheaper!

smaller!smaller!and bigger (capacities)!and bigger (capacities)!

2626

. . . and these days you can . . . and these days you can buy your personal computer buy your personal computer

almost anywherealmost anywhere

How about buying it at . . .How about buying it at . . .

2727

2828

Cost per Cost per GigaByteGigaByte of hard disk spaceof hard disk space

50 cents50 centsSummer of 2003Summer of 2003

25 25 -- 35 cents35 centsSummer of 2005Summer of 2005

$2.00$2.00Summer/Fall of 2001Summer/Fall of 2001

$3.33$3.33Fall of 2000Fall of 2000

$1.00$1.00Summer/Fall of 2002Summer/Fall of 2002

$5.00$5.00Summer of 2000Summer of 2000

$10.00$10.00Summer of 1999Summer of 1999

Cost per GBCost per GBWhenWhen

2929

Smaller DevicesSmaller Devices

3030

4GB drive4GB drive$99$99

May 2006May 2006

6

3131

Philadelphia, April 2006

3232

3333

3434

Converging DevicesConverging Devicesthat take advantage of that take advantage of ““smallnesssmallness””

combined with powercombined with power

PDAPDAPhonePhoneCameraCameraNokia 770 Nokia 770 Internet Internet tablettabletiPodiPod (5G)(5G)etc.etc.

3535

PalmPalmLifeDriveLifeDrive

4GB HD4GB HD320 x 480 320 x 480 resolutionresolutionWiWi--FiFiBluetoothBluetoothAudioAudioVideoVideoVoice Voice recorderrecorderCameraCameraIR portIR port$499$499

3636Nextel/Blackberry ad – Mobile Enterprise – 10/2004, p. 9

. . . but . . . but the one the one

I like I like the the

mostmost

7

3737

. . . But we are trying to, either. . . But we are trying to, either

Put too much on a small screenPut too much on a small screenOr we are trying to adjust to the Or we are trying to adjust to the smaller image (as opposed to a 17smaller image (as opposed to a 17--inch or bigger monitor)inch or bigger monitor)

Is there a better way?Is there a better way?

3838

The Wearable Computer, The Wearable Computer, especially a virtual screenespecially a virtual screen

October, 2001

3939

Technology ReviewMIT

June, 2001Page 66

4040

New recording technologiesNew recording technologies

Seagate: “The shift to perpendicular recording allows it to bump upThe maximum capacity of its notebook drive to 160 GB from 120 GB

Source: Daily Gazette, January 17, 2006, page A7

4141

ThereThere’’s smalls small. . . and then. . . and then

therethere’’s REALLY SMALL!!!s REALLY SMALL!!!

4242

8

4343

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002

Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center

4444

Really small . . .Really small . . .

Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center

Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002

4545

From Hewlett-Packard Quantum Science Research Center website Display Galleryhttp://www.hpl.hp.com/research/qsr/

4646

IBMIBM’’s s ‘‘MillipedeMillipede’’ ProjectProject

Store the equivalent of 25 Store the equivalent of 25 DVDs on a surface the size DVDs on a surface the size of a postage stampof a postage stampTrillion bits per square Trillion bits per square inch inch 20 times higher 20 times higher than the densest magnetic than the densest magnetic storage available todaystorage available today

http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news/20020611_millipede.html

4747

NanotechnologyNanotechnologyat Union Collegeat Union College

4848

Converging TechnologiesConverging Technologies(http://(http://ct.union.educt.union.edu))

9

4949

5050

WebWeb--book for Coursebook for Course““Frontiers of NanotechnologyFrontiers of Nanotechnology””

5151

5252

Anytime,Anytime,Anywhere,Anywhere,and Mobileand Mobile

5353

Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library(Union College)(Union College)

5454

Outside (Dartmouth College)Outside (Dartmouth College)

10

5555

5656

Free wirelessat

Panera Bread

FREE Wireless

5757

TT--mobile hotspotsmobile hotspots

Border’s, Kinko’s, airports, hotels, . . .

5858

LibrariesLibraries

5959

The Widener Library at HarvardThe Widener Library at Harvard

““ . . . one of Harvard. . . one of Harvard’’s ninetys ninety--odd school odd school and departmental collections, totaling and departmental collections, totaling some 14 million volumes; taken together some 14 million volumes; taken together they make up they make up the largest academic the largest academic library the world has ever knownlibrary the world has ever known..””[Battles, p. 4][Battles, p. 4]““This library, like all research libraries of This library, like all research libraries of any size, any size, acquires more books each acquires more books each year than any of us could read in a year than any of us could read in a lifetimelifetime..”” [Battles, p. 8][Battles, p. 8]

Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, pages 4, 8

6060

Library of CongressLibrary of Congress

Adds 7,000 books a dayAdds 7,000 books a day. . . to the more than 100 Million . . . to the more than 100 Million items already standingitems already standing. . . on its 530 miles of shelves. . . on its 530 miles of shelves

Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, page 8

11

6161

1010--20 20 TeraBytesTeraBytes (from 2 different (from 2 different estimates) represents the printed estimates) represents the printed

collection of the Library of collection of the Library of CongressCongress

Source (10 TB estimate): “How Much Information” report, 2000.Source (20 TB estimate): The Internet Archive: “Building an ‘Internet Library’” Dec. 2001.

6262

ad from October 2003ad from October 2003

38 volumes

6363

Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)

1.251.251.2271.227365365HBHBOrrOrr

1.001.00.433.433334334HBHBWarrenWarren

2.252.252.6962.6961,2641,264HBHBGrudemGrudem

1.001.00.432.432382382PBPBEdwardsEdwards

1.621.62.749.749574574HBHBColsonColson

0.500.50.323.323198198PBPBBerkhofBerkhof

Inches Inches (paper (paper copy)copy)

Size in Size in MBMB

Pages Pages (paper)(paper)

Paperback Paperback or or HardbackHardback

AuthorAuthor

6464

Library ShelvingLibrary Shelving

Three (3) feet wideThree (3) feet wideSix (6) shelves highSix (6) shelves highOne mile One mile 1,760 1,760 shelvesshelves

6565

Some extrapolationsSome extrapolations(based on the previous sizes)(based on the previous sizes)

530 pages per 530 pages per MegaByteMegaByte1.3 inches of shelf space per 1.3 inches of shelf space per MegaByteMegaByte

On my previous PDA (with 128 MB On my previous PDA (with 128 MB card):card):13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 full library shelvesfull library shelves67,000 pages67,000 pages

6666

2,166 feet of 2,166 feet of books (20 GB) books (20 GB)

fillsfills120 library 120 library

shelving unitsshelving units

Each unit is 3 Each unit is 3 feet wide and feet wide and

there are 6 there are 6 shelves in each shelves in each

unitunit

12

6767

BookbagBookbag of the Future?of the Future?--textbooks on DVDtextbooks on DVD

NY TimesMarch 2, 2000

VitalSource Technologies

From 2001 CCCU presentation

6868

Vital Source TechnologiesVital Source Technologieswww.vitalbook.comwww.vitalbook.com

VitalbookVitalbook DVD DVD –– 9 GB DVD9 GB DVDDental schools Dental schools –– 250 books on DVD 250 books on DVD ––each school licenses the ones they each school licenses the ones they useuseStudents Students –– mandated laptop computer mandated laptop computer and DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the and DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the original 5 schools. A 4original 5 schools. A 4--year cost)year cost)DVD DVD –– updated every semester. They updated every semester. They get to keep the last version of the get to keep the last version of the disk they receiveddisk they receivedIBM has partnered with IBM has partnered with VitalSourceVitalSource

6969

VitalSourceVitalSource todaytodayThe The VitalSourceVitalSource BookshelfBookshelf

7070

7171

7272

13

7373

7474

Reference WorksReference Works

7575

7676

Schools Without BooksSchools Without Books(IBM partners with (IBM partners with VitalSourceVitalSource))

March/April,2004

7777

Collaborative Collaborative TechnologiesTechnologies

““FlattenersFlatteners”” today and more today and more tomorrowtomorrow

7878

The World is Flat:The World is Flat:A Brief History of the A Brief History of the TwentyTwenty--First CenturyFirst Century

ByByThomas L. FriedmanThomas L. Friedman

14

7979

Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World

#1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came #1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came Down and the Windows Went UpDown and the Windows Went Up

#2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went #2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went PublicPublic

#3. Workflow Software. Let#3. Workflow Software. Let’’s Do s Do Lunch: Have Your application Talk Lunch: Have Your application Talk to My Applicationto My Application

#4. Open#4. Open--Sourcing. SelfSourcing. Self--organizing organizing Collaborative CommunitiesCollaborative Communities

#5. Outsourcing Y2K#5. Outsourcing Y2K

8080

Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World

#6. #6. OffshoringOffshoring. Running with Gazelles, . Running with Gazelles, Eating with LionsEating with Lions

#7. Supply#7. Supply--chaining. Eating Sushi in chaining. Eating Sushi in ArkansasArkansas

#8. #8. InsourcingInsourcing. What the guys in . What the guys in Funny Brown Shorts are Really DoingFunny Brown Shorts are Really Doing

#9. In#9. In--Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web SearchWeb Search

#10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, #10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, PersponalPersponal and Virtualand Virtual

8181

Collaborations Collaborations -- OpportunitiesOpportunitiesShare staff resourcesShare staff resourcesSave travel expensesSave travel expensesShare expertiseShare expertiseMeetingsMeetingsWorkshopsWorkshopsSeminarsSeminars

In short, flatten the worldof Higher Education

8282

All institutionsAll institutions

Have access to an unlimited library of Have access to an unlimited library of journalsjournalsHave access to unlimited reference works Have access to unlimited reference works and original sourcesand original sourcesCoCo--develop and offer remote courses develop and offer remote courses (synchronously and asynchronously)(synchronously and asynchronously)Can sponsor meetings bringing people Can sponsor meetings bringing people together without getting togethertogether without getting together

8383

Asynchronous CollaborationAsynchronous Collaboration

PodcastsPodcasts and and podcastingpodcastingwikiswikis and the and the wikipediawikipediaRSS feedsRSS feedsBlogsBlogs and and bloggingblogging

8484

PodcastingPodcasting““ContentContent--toto--GoGo””

15

8585

8686

8787

iTunesiTunes

iTunes and podcasting

8888

PodcastsPodcasts –– audio and videoaudio and video

dl.tv podcast

8989

iTunesUiTunesU

9090

dl.tvdl.tv (Digital Life) (Digital Life) podcastpodcast

16

9191

wikiswikis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki

“. . . a group of Web pages that allows users to add content, . . . , but also allows others (often completely unrestricted) to edit the content.”

9292

WikibooksWikibooks

9393

WikiWiki softwaresoftware

Can have your own Can have your own wikiwikiMuch of the software is free under Much of the software is free under the General Public License (GPL)the General Public License (GPL)Usually runs on a serverUsually runs on a server

9494

wikipedia.orgwikipedia.org

9595

9696

RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feeds

RSS is a technology used to quickly RSS is a technology used to quickly distribute ondistribute on--demand information to demand information to subscribers of an RSS Feed.subscribers of an RSS Feed.This information can be a simple This information can be a simple news article or even an Mp3 file news article or even an Mp3 file (called a (called a PodcastPodcast).).

Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”

17

9797

RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feedsAn RSS feed allows an An RSS feed allows an internetinternet user to easily user to easily recieverecieve updates or new content from a website updates or new content from a website using a simple program called a using a simple program called a Feed Feed AggregatorAggregator..Feed aggregators work similar to (and are Feed aggregators work similar to (and are usually included in) modern email clients. A feed usually included in) modern email clients. A feed is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as one of the following:one of the following:

Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”

9898

blogsblogs and and bloggingbloggingBlogBlog (from (from WikipediaWikipedia))

A A weblogweblog or or blogblog (derived from web + log) is a (derived from web + log) is a webweb--based publication consisting primarily of based publication consisting primarily of periodic articles (normally, but not always, in periodic articles (normally, but not always, in

reverse chronological order). Although most early reverse chronological order). Although most early blogsblogs were manually updated, tools to facilitate the were manually updated, tools to facilitate the

updating and maintenance of such sites made updating and maintenance of such sites made them accessible to a much larger and less technical them accessible to a much larger and less technical

population.population.

The use of some sort of The use of some sort of browserbrowser--based software is based software is now a typical aspect of "now a typical aspect of "bloggingblogging."."

9999

Blogging

100100

BloggingBlogging -- client software client software an RSS Readeran RSS Reader

One example One example –– PluckPluck(from (from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com))

101101

from from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com

102102

Union CollegeUnion College’’s Schaffer Librarys Schaffer Library

18

103103

Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library’’s s BlogBlog

104104

Pluck is accessible from within Internet Explorer

105105

After adding it to my feed in PluckAfter adding it to my feed in Pluckfrom within Internet Explorerfrom within Internet Explorer

106106

Meetings (faceMeetings (face--toto--face)face)

OneOne--toto--oneoneOneOne--toto--many (example lecturing to a many (example lecturing to a group)group)ManyMany--toto--manymany

107107

Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetings

AudioAudioAudio and videoAudio and video

108108

Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetingsWhatWhat’’s needed (have pictures)s needed (have pictures)

ComputerComputerInternet connection (preferably Internet connection (preferably broadband)broadband)Video cameraVideo cameraHeadset with microphone, or Headset with microphone, or speakers and microphonespeakers and microphoneConferencing softwareConferencing software

19

109109

What we doWhat we do

110110

An interesting applicationAn interesting application

Combining wireless and the PDACombining wireless and the PDAAugust 3, 2003August 3, 2003

111111

Concert CompanionConcert Companionat Saratoga Performing Arts Centerat Saratoga Performing Arts Center

Times-UnionAugust 9, 2003

ANNOUNCEMENT

112112

During the performanceDuring the performance

Information scrolled describing what Information scrolled describing what was taking place was taking place –– in realin real--time as time as performance was happeningperformance was happeningGave hints/information as to what Gave hints/information as to what was coming nextwas coming nextCould have summary or a more Could have summary or a more detailed descriptiondetailed description

113113

Increased Access . Increased Access . . .. .

. . . Increased . . . Increased OpportunitiesOpportunities

114114

SarahSarahMorrisMorris

Times-Union8-30-2001Pages C1, C8

www.dodgerplace.com

20

115115

www.dodgerplace.com from July 8, 2004

116116

www.dodgerplace.com from June 8, 2005

117117

from www.icanonline.net

118118

With the playersWith the players

119119

120120