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To: Secretaries of Local Government Branches in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (Scotland - for information only) Regional Heads of Local Government

3 May 2019

2020 - 21 NJC Pay Claim: Branch consultation

This circular contains UNISON's proposed NJC pay claim for 2020/21, together with some background analysis. The proposed claim was discussed and

agreed by the UNISON NJC Committee on 30 April 2019. Branches are asked to consult members as widely as possible on the proposed claim and submit

responses to their Regional Head of Local Government using the enclosed pro-forma by 5 pm on Friday 31 May 2019

The UNISON NJC Committee met on Tuesday 30 April 2019 to discuss the contents of the NJC pay claim for 2020/21, having taken soundings from Regional Local Government Committees, who were asked to discuss the content of the claim in order to inform this consultation.

In considering the proposed claim for 2020/21, the NJC Committee was mindful of the context:

• The move to the new NJC pay spine and the importance of not unravelling the 2% incremental differences newly established

• The minimum NJC scp hourly rate is now the same as the Foundation Living Wage (FLW) hourly rate

• The FLW forms a stepping stone towards UNISON's wider goal of achieving minimum pay rates of£ 10 an hour across the UK

The Committee agreed that our core objective must continue to focus on the restoration of decent pay levels for all members and a bold claim is needed .

__ _, J:ie-Gommi.ttee-also-wan.ted-to-keep_tb.e-clain:Ls.impJe_an.d_agr:eed_n.oUo_r..ecommend-tb.v- -----in clusion of any NJC conditions in this pay claim.

Instead members will be consulted about a separate NJC conditions claim at a later date.

Proposed Pay Claim 2020/21

The Committee is proposing the following claim for 2020/21:

10% or £10 per hour, whichever is the greater.

A table is attached to this circular setting out current NJC and GLPC rates and showing the impact of the claim.

The economic background paper considered by the Committee is also attached and highlights:

• Recruitment and retention problems: affecting 74% of councils

• Inflation: RPI at 2. 7% and CPI at 2.1 %. RPI to average 3.2% over 2019 and remain over 3% to 2022

• Average earnings: predicted to be 2.5% in 2019 rising to 3.2% by 2023

• Average pay settlements: 2.8% for private sector; 2.7% for public sector

Consultation Timetable

Branches are asked to carry out as wide a consultation as possible on the contents of the proposed claim and return their results to your Regional Head of Local Government by 5 pm on Friday 31 May 2019. A proforma is attached. It is very important that the NJC Committee gets a view from as many branches as possible and that members are engaged at this stage in the claim.

Regions are being asked to return the results to the local government section by 5pm on Tuesday, 4 June 2019.

The UNISON NJC Committee will meet on Thursday 6 June 2019 to consider the results of the branch consultation and to agree UNISON's proposals for the 2020/21 pay claim. GMB and Unite will also be consulting their members on what they would like to see in the claim. The intention is for the Trade Union Side to agree the claim in late June for immediate submission to the Local Government Association (LGA)

With best wishes

Jon Richards National Secretary Local Government, Police and Justice Section

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Impact of 2020/21 Pay Claim - NJC Pay Rates

NJC SCP Pay Rates 2019

2019 Hourly Rates

2020 Claim 2020 Hourly Rate

1 £17,364 £9.00 £19,293 £10.00

2 £17,711 £9.18 £19,482 £10 .10

3 £18,065 £9.36 £19,872 £10 .30

4 £18,426 £9.55 £20,269 £10 .51

£18,795 £9.74 £20,675 £10 .72

6 £19,171 £9.94 £21,088 £10 .93

7 £19,554 £10 .14 £21,510 £11.15

8 £19,945 £10.34 £21 ,940 £11.37

9 £20,344 £10.54 £22,378 £11 .60

£20,751 £10.76 £22,826 £11.83

11 £21,166 £10.97 £23,283 £12 .07

12 £21,589 £11.19 £23,748 £12 .31

13 £22,021 £11.41 £24,223 £12 .56

14 £22,462 £11.64 £24,708 £12.81

£22,911 £11.88 £25,202 £13 .06

16 £23,369 £12.11 £25,706 £13.32

17 £23,836 £12.35 £26,220 £13 .59

18 £24,313 £12 .60 £26,744 £13.86

19 £24,799 £12.85 £27,279 £14 .14

£25,295 £13.11 £27,825 £14.42

21 £25,801 £13.37 £28 ,381 £14.71

22 £26,317 £13.64 £28,949 £15.00

23 £26,999 £13 .99 £29,699 £15.39

24 £27,905 £14.46 £30,696 £15.91

£28,785 £14.92 £31,664 £16.41

26 £29,636 £15 .36 £32 ,599 £16 .90

27 £30,507 £15.81 £33,558 £17.39

28 £31,371 £16.26 £34,508 £17.89

29 £32,029 £16.60 £35 ,232 £18 .26

£32,878 £17.04 £36,165 £18.75

31 £33,799 £17.52 £37,179 £19.27

32 £34,788 £18.03 £38,267 £19.83

33 £35,934 £18.63 £39,527 £20.49

34 £36,876 £19.11 £40,564 £21 .03

£37,849 £19.62 £41 ,634 £21.58

36 £38,813 £20.12 £42,694 £22.13

37 £39,782 £20.62 £43,760 £22 .68

38 £40,760 £21.13 £44,836 £23.24

39 £41,675 £21.60 £45 ,843 £23.76

£42,683 £22.12 £46,951 £24 .34

41 £43,662 £22.63 £48,029 £24.89

42 £44,632 £23 .13 £49,095 £25.45

43 £45,591 £23.63 £50,151 £25 .99

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Impact of 2020/21 Pay Claim - Outer London Pay Rates

Outer Pay Rates 2019 Hourly 2020 Claim 2020 Hourly London SCP 2019 Rates Rate

1 £20 ,103 £10.71 £22 ,113 £11 .78

2 £20 ,466 £10.90 £22,513 £11 .99

3 £20 ,835 £11 .10 £22 ,919 £12 .21

4 £21,210 £11.30 £23 ,331 £12.43

£21,591 £11.50 £23 ,750 £12.65

6 £21,981 £11 .71 £24,179 £12 .88

7 £22 ,377 £11.92 £24,615 £13.11

8 £22,779 £12 .13 £25 ,057 £13 .35

9 £23,187 £12.35 £25 ,506 £13.59

£23 ,607 £12 .58 £25 ,968 £13 .83

11 £24 ,030 £12.80 £26,433 £14 .08

12 £24,462 £13.03 £26,908 £14 .33

13 £24,903 £13.27 £27,393 £14.59

14 £25 ,353 £13.51 £27 ,888 £14 .86

£25 ,809 £13 .75 £28 ,390 £15 .12

16 £26 ,274 £14 .00 £28,901 £15.40

17 £26,745 £14.25 £29 ,420 £15 .67

18 £27,228 £14 .50 £29,951 £15 .96

19 £27,717 £14.77 £30 ,489 £16 .24

£28,215 £15.03 £31 ,037 £16 .53

21 £28,725 £15 .30 £31 ,598 £16 .83

22 £29,241 £15 .58 £32 ,165 £17.14

23 £29,766 £15.86 £32 ,743 £17.44

24 £30 ,213 £16 .10 £33,234 £17.70

£30,711 £16 .36 £33 ,782 £18 .00

26 £31,548 £16.81 £34 ,703 £18.49

27 £32,430 £17.28 £35,673 £19.00

28 £33,291 £17 .73 £36,620 £19.51

29 £33,948 £18 .08 £37,343 £19 .89

£34,794 £18.54 £38 ,273 £20.39

31 £35,724 £19.03 £39 ,296 £20 .93

32 £36 ,711 £19 .56 £40 ,382 £21 .51

33 £37,842 £20 .16 £41,626 £22 .18

34 £38,799 £20.67 £42 ,679 £22 .74

£39,774 £21.19 £43 ,751 £23 .31

36 £40,728 £21 .70 £44 ,801 £23.87

37 £41 ,706 £22 .22 £45,877 £24.44

38 £42 ,684 £22 .74 £46 ,952 £25.01

39 £43 ,590 £23 .22 £47,949 £25.54

£44,607 £23 .76 £49 ,068 £26.14

4~ £45·;-5-85 i.242 0 £50 ,1214 t.Z67i

42 £46 ,560 £24 .80 £51,216 £27.28

43 £47 ,511 £25.31 £52 ,262 £27 .84

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Outer London SCP

Pay Rates 2019

2019 Hourly Rates

2020 Claim 2020 Hourly Rate

44 £48,492 £25.83 £53,341 £28.42

45 £49,464 £26.35 £54,410 £28.99

46 £50,448 £26.87 £55,493 £29.56

47 £51,450 £27.41 £56,595 £30.15

48 £52,482 £27.96 £57,730 £30.75

49 £53,544 £28.52 £58,898 £31.38

50 £54,597 £29.09 £60,057 £31.99

51 £55,638 £29.64 £61,202 £32.60

52 £56,682 £30.20 £62,350 £33.22

53 £57 ,735 £30.76 £63 ,509 £33.83

54 £58,779 £31.31 £64,657 £34.44

55 £59,823 £31.87 £65 ,805 £35.06

56 £60,879 £32.43 £66,967 £35.67

57 £61,929 £32.99 £68,122 £36.29

58 £62,970 £33.55 £69,267 £36.90

59 £64 ,023 £34.11 £70,425 £37.52

60 £65,367 £34.82 £71,904 £38.30

61 £66,732 £35.55 £73,405 £39.10

62 £68,127 £36.29 £74,940 £39.92

63 £69,561 £37.06 £76,517 £40.76

64 £71,016 £37.83 £78,118 £41.62

65 £72,438 £38.59 £79,682 £42.45

Impact of 2020/21 Pay Claim - Inner London Pay Rates

Inner London SCP

Pay Rates 2019

2019 Hourly Rates

2020 Claim 2020 Hourly Rate

1 £21 ,231 £11.31 £23 ,354 £12.44

2 £21,612 £11.51 £23,773 £12.66

3 £22,002 £11.72 £24,202 £12.89

4 £22 ,398 £11.93 £24 ,638 £13.12

5 £22,800 £12.15 £25 ,080 £13.36

6 £23 ,211 £12.37 £25,532 £13.60

7 £23 ,628 £12.59 £25 ,991 £13.85

8 £24 ,054 £12.81 £26,460 £14.10

9 £24,486 £13.04 £26,935 £14.35

10 £24 ,927 £13.28 £27,420 £14.61

11 £25 ,377 £13.52 £27 ,915 £14.87

12 £25,833 £13.76 £28,416 £15.14

13 £26,298 £14.01 £28,928 £15.41

14 £26 ,772 £14.26 £29,449 £15.69

15 £27,255 £14.52 £29,981 £15.97

1_6 f 2l_,7AA f14 78 £30 518 £16.26

17 £28,245 £15.05 £31,070 £16.55

18 £28,752 £15.32 £31,628 £16.85

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Inner London Pay Rates 2019 Hourly 2020 Claim 2020 Hourly SCP 2019 Rates Rate

19 £29 ,271 £15 .59 £32,198 £17.15

£29,796 £15.87 £32,776 £17.46

21 £30 ,333 £16.16 £33,366 £17 .77

22 £30,879 £16.45 £33,967 £18 .09

23 £31,434 £16.75 £34 ,577 £18.42

24 £32,001 £17 .05 £35,201 £18 .75

£32 ,577 £17.35 £35 ,834 £19 .09

26 £33 ,162 £17 .67 £36 ,478 £19.43

27 £33 ,759 £17.98 £37 ,135 £19 .78

28 £34,128 £18.18 £37 ,541 £20 .00

29 £34 ,986 £18 .64 £38,484 £20 .50

£35 ,637 £18.98 £39 ,201 £20 .88

31 £36,486 £19.44 £40,135 £21.38

32 £37,413 £19.93 £41 ,154 £21 .92

33 £38,403 £20.46 £42,244 £22 .50

34 £39 ,543 £21 .07 £43,497 £23 .17

£40,491 £21.57 £44,540 £23 .73

36 £41 ,466 £22 .09 £45,613 £24 .30

37 £42,432 £22.60 £46 ,675 £24.86

38 £43,404 £23.12 £47,744 £25.43

39 £44 ,373 £23 .64 £48,810 £26.00

£45 ,288 £24.13 £49 ,817 £26 .54

41 £46 ,293 £24.66 £50 ,922 £27 .13

42 £47,274 £25 .18 £52 ,001 £27 .70

43 £48,252 £25.70 £53,077 £28 .28

44 £49 ,203 £26.21 £54,123 £28.83

£50 ,184 £26 .73 £55 ,202 £29.41

46 £51,162 £27 .26 £56,278 £29 .98

47 £52,140 £27.78 £57,354 £30.55

48 £53 ,133 £28 .31 £58 ,446 £31 .14

49 £54 ,174 £28 .86 £59,591 £31 .75

£55 ,233 £29.42 £60 ,756 £32.37

51 £56,289 £29.99 £61,918 £32.99

52 £57 ,333 £30.54 £63,067 £33.60

53 £58,380 £31 .10 £64,218 £34.21

54 £59,421 £31 .66 £65,364 £34.82

£60,480 £32,22 £66 ,528 £35.44

56 £61 ,515 £32 .77 £67 ,667 £36.05

57 £62 ,565 £33 .33 £68 ,822 £36.66

58 £63,630 £33 .90 £69 ,993 £37 .29

59 £64 ,656 £34.44 £71 ,121 £37 .89

£65,712 £35 .01 £72 ,283 £38.51 C::1 £67, Q§2 :::::5:--7-2 :::1-S-;-7-5-C : 3§:-2§ ~-

62 £68,427 £36.45 £75 ,270 £40.10

63 £69 ,813 £37.19 £76 ,794 £40.91

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Inner London SCP

Pay Rates 2019

2019 Hourly Rates

2020 Claim 2020 Hourly Rate

64 £71 ,256 £37.96 £78,382 £41.76

65 £72,705 £38.73 £79,976 £42.60

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BRANCH CONSULTATION ON 2020/21 NJC PAY CLAIM ECONOMIC BACKGROUND INFORMATION

1. Pay Comparisons

If you compare pay for specific jobs in local government with similar roles in the NHS, you can see that NJC workers are poorer relatives to those with equivalent roles under Agenda for Change.

With transfers within the public sector becoming more common, NJC workers face the scenario of working alongside someone doing the same job for more money. This is no way to motivate staff and has real implications for recruitment and retention in local government.

Table 1: Minimum pay rates acrnss tlile publi(!: secter .

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UNISON bargaining groups From Rate(£) Hourly

(£)

Local government (England, Wales & Northern Ireland) 01/04/2019 17364 9.00

Local government (Scotland) 01/04/2017 17497 9.07

NHS Agenda for Change (England and Wales) 01/04/2019 17652 9.03

NHS Agenda for Change (Scotland) 01/04/2019 17949 9.18

NHS Agenda for Change (Northern Ireland) 01/04/2018 16943 8.67

Higher education 01/08/2018 15842 8.21

Further education (England) 01/08/2018 15796 8.21

Sixth Form College support staff (England & Wales) 01/09/2018 16000 8.29

Police staff (England & Wales) 01/09/2018 17262 8.95

Probation Serv ice 01/04/2019 17764 9.21

Youth and Community Workers 01/09/2018 18117 9.39

Centlial govermment Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy 01/08/2018 20000 10.37

Department for Culture, Media & Transport 01/08/2018 21467 11.13

Department for Education 01/04/2018 19130 9.92

Department for Works and Pensions 01/07/2018 18745 9.72 ·

Environment Agency 01/07/2018 16518 8.56

HM Revenue and Customs 01/06/2018 16600 8.60

Home Office 01/07/2018 17211 8.92

Scottish Parliament 01/04/2018 17699 9.17

The hourly rate is based on a 37-hour week , with the exception of the NHS, which has a standard 37.5-hour week

The top of the NJC pay spine compares badly with the rest of the public sector too . It is £44,697 . Compare this with £100,431 for the NHS and £60 ,410 for Higher Education . This has led to nearly two thirds of authorities extending their pay spine locally. At the top, NHS and local government jobs are very similar. UNISON has demonstrated this by doing 'dummy' job evaluations using the NJC JE scheme.

2. Terms and conditions

In an attempt to save costs , for the last nine years councils across the board have been shredding conditions . Slashing terms and conditions has a real impact on our members' pay packets. Many are dependent on these additional payments to make ends meet.

Fewer jobs and worse terms and conditions also mean there's less money in the local economy, which is bad for local busine~ses. For every £1 spent, 64p is put back into the local economy.

3. Job losses

With considerably fewer workers to provide local services , members deserve a pay rise that reflects the massive increase in their productivity as those workers left behind attempt to pick up the workloads of former colleagues .

Local government workers face job insecurity and frequent reviews and reorganisations.

Overall , UK employment in local government has fallen from 2.84 million in 2010 to 2.05 million as of September 2018:

Figure 2: UK publ ic secto r employment in local and central government , seasonally adjusted

Ma rch 1999 to September 2018

Millions 3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

0.00 :{ r I Sep 2000 Sep 2002 Sep 200-l Sep 200G Sep 2008 Sep 2010 Sep 2012 Sep 2014 Sep 2016 Sep 2018

- Ce ntr a l gove rnm e nt· - Local gove rnmenL

Sour ce : Quart erly Pu blic Sect or Employm ent Survey. Office for Nat ion a l Statis tics

2

4 Recruitment and retention

With pay in local government comparing badly with the rest of the public sector and the private sector, recruitment and retention is fast becoming an issue. If pay is not addressed, this situation can only worsen with widespread use of agency workers coming at a hefty cost to the public purse. Many councils have become heavily dependent on temporary workers.

According to the LGA's Local Government Workforce Survey 2016/17, nearly three quarters of respondents (74 per cent) said their council was currently experiencing recruitment and retention difficulties. This was higher in single and upper tier councils group, where more than eight out of 10 (83 per cent) reported recruitment and retention difficulties:

Is your authority currently experiencing any recruitment difficulties?

or retention

Response Shire district Single / upper

tier England Yes(%) 63 83 74 No(%) 33 14 23

Don't know(%) 3 3 3 Total(%) 100 100 74

Base 63 71 134

5. Economic background

5.1 Current inflation rates

Between the start of 2010 and the end of 2018, the cost of living, as measured by the Retail Prices Index (RPI) has risen by a total of 31.1 %.

Inflation rose markedly over 2016 and 2017, pushing the RPI rate to over 4%. During 2018 and into 2019, rates have been in decline, with the the latest figures for March 2019 putting RPI at 2.4% and CPI at 1.9%.

Graph 2: Inflation rates

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5.2 Main factors affecting inflation

Price changes to commodities that make up the RPI over the year to March 2019 are shown in Table 4 below.

Table 4: Price chanaes to March 2019

Item Average % increase

Alcohol and tobacco 3.9 ..

Travel and leisure 3.0

Personal expenditure 2.8

Consumer durables 2.6

HousinQ and household expenditure 2.1

Food and caterinQ 1.8

All Qoods 2.3

All services 2.7 -All items

.

2.4 Source: Office for National Statistics, Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables, March 2019

Within these figures, some costs are rising significantly faster, such as mortgage interest payments at 4.5%, council tax and rates at 4.9%, electricity at 3.8%, telephone services at 4.5% and rail fares at 4 .1 %.

The price of housing also remains one of the biggest issues facing employees and their families, with house prices hitting an average of £303,073 1 in England and Wales in March 2019. Similarly, the average month!¥ rent for new tenancies in the UK picked up 3.3% over the last year to reach £942 .

Though not specifically assessed by CPI or RPI figures, childcare costs represent a key area of expenditure for many staff (UNISON surveys have consistently found that around a third of staff have child caring responsibilities). Therefore, it is also worth noting that the annual Family & Childcare Trust survey 3 for 2019 found that the cost of a nursery place for a two year old has risen by 4% since last year, with the annual cost of 25 hours care per week hitting £6,465.

Current inflation rates can mask longer term changes in the cost of living that have taken place since 2010. The examples below show major increases in core costs that have surpassed average prices increases over the period.

Item % price rise 2010 - 2018

Item % price rise 2010 - 2018

Item % price rise 2010 - 2018

House prices

37% Bus and coach fares

51% Electricity 48%

1 LSL Property Services, House Price Index , March 2019 'Homelet Rental Index, March 2019 3 Family & Childcare Trust, Childcare Survey 2019

4

5.3 Forecast inflation rates

The Treasury average of independent forecasts states that RPI inflation will average 2.8% over 2019 . It will then remain at 3.2% every year until 2022, following the pattern shown in the graph below. These annual rates show the rate at which pay rises would be needed for wages just to maintain their current value.

Graph 3: Forecast annual increase in cost of living

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: HM Treasury Forecasts for the UK Economy , February 2019

If these rates turn out to be correct, the cost of living employees face will have grown by almost 17% between 2019 and 2023 , following the pattern set out in graph 4 below.

3.5 3:2 3.2 3.2 3.2

3

2.5 QI

"'Ill 2QI... u .5 1.5 ~

1

0.5

0

Graph 4: Forecast cumulative increase in cost of living

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0 QI

"'Ill 10.0QI... u C: 8.0 ~

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

6.1

2-:-8

5

3.5

5.4 Average earnings growth

Forecasts of average earnings predict that growth will average 3.1 % in 2019 and then remain at or above 3% over the following four years, as per the pattern below 4 .

3

..c 2.5 ~ 0... llO 2 iii :s C: 1.5 C: ra ~ 1

0.5

0

Graph 5: Forecast average earnings growth

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

5.5 Average pay settlements:

Pay settlements in the private sector have been running far in advance of the public sector since 2010. While the pay freeze was in place across the public sector, the private sector was seeing average rises around 2.5%, and the private sector continued to outpace the public sector by at least double the public sector rate during the ensuing period of the 1% pay cap . Since 2018, the gap has been closing.

Table 6 below shows average settlements for other sectors where UNISON represents members or sectors that compete for similar types of worker as public services .

Sector Average pay settlements

Across economy 2.5%

Private sector 2.7%

Public sector 2.0%

Not for profit 2.5%

Wholesale & retail 3.3%

Transport & storaQe 2.8%

Information & communication 2.5%

Admin & support 2.4% Source: Labour Research Department , settlements vear to Mav 2019

4 Office for Budgetary Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outloo k, March 2019

6

Average pay settlements across the economy since 2010 are shown by the table below. Therefore , the average worker has seen a 22.7% rise in their pay over the period

Year Average pay settlements

2010 2.0% 2011 2.5% 2012 2.5% 2013 2.5% 2014 2.5% 2015 2.2% 2016 2.0% 2017 2.0% 2018 2.5%

7