This work is supported by the National Science Foundation’s Transforming Undergraduate Education in STEM program within the Directorate for Education and Human Resources (DUE-1245025).

WATER RESOURCES AND GEODESY

Unit 1 - Introduction to the hydrological cycle3/31/2011 3/31/2015

ANNUAL HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/atmos/images/hydro_5cycle.jpg

RESIDENCE TIME FOR WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Amount of water in the atmosphere (kg)Flux of water through atmosphere (kg/yr)tr =

tr =13 x 1015 (kg)400 x 1015(kg/yr)

tr = 0.033 years = ~12 days

WILLOW CREEK WATERSHED

Oblique view to NW with Willow Creek Reservoir

USGS

AL

USGS Willow Creek Gaging Station

06035000

(near Harrison MT)http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/

uv/?site_no=06035000&PARAmeter_cd=00

060,00065,00010

USGS WILLOW CREEK GAGE: PEAK DISCHARGE

y = -9.2909x + 270.38

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USG

S W

illow

Cre

ek G

age,

Ann

ual P

eak

Disc

harg

e (c

fs)

Willow Creek Peak Streamflow Trend 1997-2008

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = 0.5697x + 192.07

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USG

S W

illow

Cre

ek G

age,

Ann

ual P

eak

Disc

harg

e (c

fs)

Willow Creek Peak Streamflow Trend 1998-2008

Series1

Linear (Series1)

No significant trend when excluding 1997Decreasing trend when including 1997

USGS WILLOW CREEK GAGE: MEAN DISCHARGE(NO SIGNIFICANT TREND WHEN EXCLUDING 1997)

y = -2.8391x + 62.844

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USG

S W

illow

Cre

ek G

age,

May

Mea

n Di

scha

rge

(cfs

)

Willow Creek Discharge trend 1997-2008 (2003 missing)

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = -8.8345x + 148.73

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

USG

S W

illow

Cre

ek G

age,

Jun

e M

ean

Disc

harg

e (c

fs)

Willow Creek Discharge trend 1997-2008 (2003 missing)

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = -4.3877x + 263.29

y = -8.3813x + 158.66

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

USG

S W

illow

Cre

ek G

age,

Dec

adal

Pea

k Di

scha

rge

(cfs

)

Willow Creek Peak Streamflow Decadal Trends 1938-2008

mean Stdev

Linear (mean) Linear (Stdev)

Albro Lake SNOTEL Site

State: Montana Site Number: 916 County: Madison Latitude: 45 deg; 36 min N Longitude: 111 deg; 58 min W Elevation: 8300 feet Reporting since: 1996-09-11

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=916&state=mt

ALBRO LAKE SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS

y = -0.061x + 21.627

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Albr

o La

ke S

WE,

May

Max

(in)

Snowpack trend 1997-2009

Series1

Linear (Series1)y = 0.0659x + 9.6615

0

5

10

15

20

25

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Albr

o La

ke S

WE,

June

Max

(in)

Snowpack trend 1997-2009

Series1

Linear (Series1)

SNOWPACK TRENDS IN THE TOBACCO ROOT MOUNTAINS, MT

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

jan feb mar apr may jun

Snowpack Trend: 1980s to PresentData from the Lower Twin Lakes SNOTEL Station

Note: Jan and Apr are significant at p <= 0.05

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Peak Streamflow Decadal Trend:1960s to Present (p-value = 0.006)

Source: PDO index from UW JISAO

A

B

C

SELECTIVE COMMENTS ABOUT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN MT

• Climate change impacts on water resources, ecosystem services and agricultural production in the Willow Creek watershed

– Preliminary analysis indicates significant trends in declining snowpack and streamflow over the past several decades: 25% loss of snowpack since the early 1980s, 34% decline in peak streamflow since the 1960s, similar declines in mean discharge.

– Consistent with prior work covering western MT region:• Mote (2003) shows snowpack decline of 15-30% for 1950-2000 period• Stewart et al. (2005) show several week advance in streamflow center-of-mass timing and

warming trend dominating variability from PDO for 1950-2000 period• Pierce et al. (2008) and Bonfils et al (2008) show anthropogenic cause for warming and

snowpack decline from detection and attribution analyses• Pederson et al. (2010) calculate warming of Western Montana region since 1900 as nearly twice

the global mean (1.33 vs. 0.74 degC). Winter time and high elev. changes even higher (3Xs)• GNP: 1850– 150 glaciers, Today– 35 glaciers, 2030– Zero? USGS Repeat Photography Project

• Irrigation efficiency and optimizing water resources– Irrigation accounts for 97% of total water withdrawals

and 94% of total water consumption in MT; Madison County in highest class (Cannon and Johnson, 2004)

– Water budget for Willow Creek watershed; new data collection under local partnership with landholders

• Groundwater resource investigation– Increasing reliance? Some hydrographs from

Madison county show large drawdowns (MT GWIC #130177: 50ft from 1999-2006)

MONTANA WATER AVAILABILITY(b) SWSI

(c) NINO 3.4 SST

Source: SWSI is from USDA NRCS and Montana DEQ; SST anomaly is from NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center

RECENT CONDITIONSNRCS SNOTEL REPORT 01FEB: JEFFERSON BASIN = 77% OF NORMAL, MADISON BASIN = 74% OF NORMAL NRCS SNOTEL REPORT 01MAR: JEFFERSON BASIN = 71% OF NORMAL, MADISON BASIN = 67% OF NORMAL

HYDROLOGIC CYCLE ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/watercyclesummary.html

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/img/atmospheric-river-feb2015.gif

NEED TO CONSIDER TRENDS WRT PDOPOSITIVE “WARM” PHASE BEGAN IN 1976 TRANSITION TO NEGATIVE “COOL” PHASE IN 1999

DETAILS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN MT SNOTEL RECORDS AND PDO

WCDW ALBRO LAKE SNOTEL OBSERVATIONSRECORD FROM 1997+ TOO SHORT FOR CLIMATE TREND ANALYSISMAX SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT FOR (A) MAY AND (B) JUNE

y = -0.061x + 21.627

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Albr

o La

ke S

WE,

May

Max

(in)

Snowpack trend 1997-2009

Series1

Linear (Series1)

y = 0.0659x + 9.6615

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Albr

o La

ke S

WE,

June

Max

(in)

Snowpack trend 1997-2009

Series1

Linear (Series1)

LOWER TWIN LAKES SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS WELL CORRELATED WITH ALBRO LAKE SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Low

er T

win

Sta

tion

SWE

(in)

Albro Lake Station SWE (in)

SNOTEL Station CorrelationSWE Observations on 15-May (in); R2 = 0.91

y = -0.1904x + 21.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

SWE

(in)

Lower Twin SNOTEL SWE (15-Apr reading)

Series1

Linear (Series1)

LOWER TWIN LAKES SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS SHOW STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND OF 25% LOSS OF SNOWPACK SINCE THE EARLY 1980S(SIGNIFICANT AT 90% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR JAN, MAR AND APR)

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

jan feb mar apr may jun

Snowpack Trend: 1980s to PresentData from the Lower Twin Lakes SNOTEL Station

Note: Jan and Apr are significant at p <= 0.05

Positive PDO regime corresponds to below avg. snowpack/streamflow for NW USA (jet stream further south)

PDO transition to cooler regime in 1999 indicates declining snowpack trend in the Lower Twin SNOTEL record is driven by long-term warming. Streamflow trend spans 2 transitions, plus 2000s is lowest decade warming

LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW RECORDS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FOR EVALUATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE WILLOW CREEK WATERSHED (BUT NEED TO CONSIDER IMPACTS FROM LAND USE CHANGE-- IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE)

250

200

294 288

253241

195

170

60

200

142

98

120

85

y = -4.3877x + 263.29 y = -8.3813x + 158.66

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

USGS

Will

ow C

reek

Gag

e, D

ecad

al P

eak

Disc

harg

e (c

fs)

Willow Creek Peak Streamflow Decadal Trends 1938-2008

mean StdevLinear (mean) Linear (Stdev)