united states army g8 program analysis and evaluation directorate for official use only – close...

UNITED STATES ARMY G8 Program Analysis and Evaluation Directorate

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD


COL Wesley JenningsU.S. Army

Command and Installation Division, PAED,

Deputy Chief of Staff G8

9 MAY 2007

OPMG Brief V1.0

2FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – CLOSE HOLD

Agenda

• Understanding the Strategic Context

• POM 08-13 review

• Army Challenges

• PBR 09-13


Deputy Director(Civilian)

M r. Dean Pfoltzer

Deputy Director(M ilitary)

Incoming

POM ProcessPOM DevelopmentProgram OverviewProgram Integration

Program Developm entDivision

Force StructureM anpow erReadinessTraining

M anpow er & ForceProgram Analysis

Division

RDASustainm entDepot M aintenanceSoldier Support

Acquisition SupportProgram Analysis

Division

InstallationsCOCOM AnalysisM ACOM AnalysisRC Integration

Com mand & InstallationProgram Analysis

Division

Database M anagementAutomation SupportAutomated POM /BESM odeling

Program Budget DataM anagement Division

DirectorPAE

M G Grisoli

Current Strength

Military 42 Civilian 44

PAE develops

the Program

ABO develops

the Budget & works

Execution year

Created 1972during Nixon Administration

PAED Mission: – Responsible for the Army’s $737 billion

(FY08-13) Program Objective Memorandum (POM)

– Single authoritative source for resource information

– Experts in all facets of the Army’s programs

Program Analysis & Evaluation Directorate

Points of Influence: – Develops courses of action for the Senior

Review Group’s resource allocation decisions

– Provides independent assessment of the Army’s programs

– Produces strategic documents for the POM (Section III of the Army Plan, Technical Guidance Memorandum, POM EXSUM)


Un

its

Co

mm

itte

d

Rotation Base forStability Ops

(1 forward : 2 back)

Peak MCO Demand(full access to forces)

ORRotation Base for

Routine Ops


Time

Stability Ops

MCO

Routine Ops + GWoT

Homeland Defense

Un

its

Co

mm

itte

d



Peak MCO Demand(full access to forces)

ORRotation Base for

Routine Ops


Time

Stability Ops

MCO

Routine Ops + GWoT

Homeland DefenseDisruptiveTraditional

CatastrophicIrregular

Shape Choices

Defeat Terrorist

ExtremismCounter

WMD

DefendHomeland

Today's Capability Portfolio

“Shifting Our Weight”

DisruptiveTraditional


DisruptiveTraditional


Shape ChoicesShape

Choices

Defeat Terrorist

Extremism

Defeat Terrorist

ExtremismCounter

WMDCounter

WMD

DefendHomeland

DefendHomeland



“Shifting Our Weight”

QDR

Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration

Policy Environment Partner Capabilities

Frequency Number Scale / Intensity Concurrency Ops Risks Duration

Policy Environment Partner Capabilities

EnablingPartnersEnablingPartners

ReconstructionReconstruction

ConsequenceManagementConsequenceManagement

HomelandDefense

HomelandDefense

War on Terror /Irregular WarfareWar on Terror /

Irregular Warfare

ConventionalCampaigns

ConventionalCampaigns

Information OpsInformation Ops

Regional Regional DeterrenceDeterrenceRegional Regional

DeterrenceDeterrence

Global Global DeterrenceDeterrence

Global Global DeterrenceDeterrence

Foreign Internal DefenseForeign Internal Defense

Active Partnering with USG AgenciesActive Partnering with USG Agencies

Train & EquipTrain & Equip

WMD EliminationWMD Elimination

InterdictionInterdiction

Sizing Variables:

Steady State Surge

Stability OpsStability Ops

Major Combat / Strike

Major Combat / StrikeForward PresenceForward Presence

EnablingPartnersEnablingPartners

Transnational Transnational DeterrenceDeterrence

Transnational Transnational DeterrenceDeterrence

Info Ops

• Build to 70 full-spectrum BCTs • Provide 18-19 BCTs for Steady State Security

Posture • Surge capacity of additional 18-19 BCTs.• Increase Special Operations Forces• Improve capabilities for Stability, Security,

Transition, and Reconstruction Operations• Rebalance the force to create the right mix of

units in high demand.• Increase to 76 BCTs to build Strategic Depth• 20-22 BCTs for Steady State Security Posture

Building Army Capabilities to Meet the QDR Strategy…


Operational Demand > >QDR

StrategyResources

Supplemental Program

POM 08-13 Strategy – Resource Mismatch

Army requires base and supplemental funding to meet operational demand and strategic requirements.

$113B$138.8B$220B


POM/BES FY08-13 Process

FiscalGuidance(-$22.5B)

(3 Apr)

24 EOH engagements to define resource problem and strategic choices

Issue Team work

CSA meets SecDef – Issue Teams approved

SA/CSAengage SecDef

DAWG Brief – “Army Capabilities& Resources”

SA/CSA meet w/ SecDef; Verbal revised fiscal guidance(+$7B FY08-11; +$12B FY12-13)

OMB meeting with

OSD/Army

OSD brief to VP and OMB

JAN

FEB

MA

R

2006 PPBE Conference

Command briefs

Develop/lock requirements (PEGs/CMDs)

AP

R

JUN

MA

Y

JUL

AU

G

EOH: “Broken Program”

SE

P

Issue Team Outbrief

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

12

3EOH

POM/BES priorities

Submit POM/BES FY08-13

(22 Nov)

4

POM/BES 1st Half

POM/BES 2d Half (proposed)

OSD/JS/Army Issue Team

Program/Budget Review

Signed PDM

Grow the Army

PPBE DOCUMENT – FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY – PREDECISIONAL – CLOSE HOLD

21 February 2007

PAED

PAED transfer

database to ABO

(5 Nov)

Revised fiscal

guidance(19 Oct) PEG

compliance briefs(3 Nov)

(22 Dec)


$0B

$20B

$40B

$60B

$80B

$100B

$120B

$140B

$160B

$180B

$200B

$220B

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

$46B $66B $68B

Actual Execution Appropriations

$96B $101B $108B

$108BTotal

Request

($49BIn

Title IX)

$92B

Supplemental Funding

Base Funding

GWOT Request

President’s Budget FY08

RealityGrowth in total Army spending is largely a function of the war. Growth in our base budget is a function of the evolving security environment.

$110B $130B $141B $144B $143B

FY12 FY13

$144B $144B

Base and Supplemental Funding


• Environment requires readiness in depth – Army lacks readiness in depth

• Equipment and Personnel shortages drive readiness ratings

• IAs/TTs require significant Officer/NCO leadership

• Environment requires readiness in depth – Army lacks readiness in depth

• Equipment and Personnel shortages drive readiness ratings

• IAs/TTs require significant Officer/NCO leadership

Goal: 1 forward : 3 back…or Stress to All-Volunteer Force

Just in Time Readiness

STEADY STATE SECURITY POSTURE

1

Pre-decisional

Framework for Force - Sizing Calculations

• Calculated force size is the maximum of:

Routine operations (plus rotation base)

Peak MCO demand

Stability operations (plus rotation base)

Tro

op

Co

mm

itm

ent



Peak 2x MCO Demand(full access to forces)

Rotation Base forRoutine Ops


Time

Stability Ops

MCO 1

Routine Ops + GWoT

Homeland Defense

FOUO

FOUO



MC

O 2

STEADY STATE SECURITY POSTURE

1

Pre-decisional

Framework for Force - Sizing Calculations

• Calculated force size is the maximum of:

Routine operations (plus rotation base)

Peak MCO demand

Stability operations (plus rotation base)

Tro

op

Co

mm

itm

ent



Peak 2x MCO Demand(full access to forces)

Rotation Base forRoutine Ops


Time

Stability Ops

MCO 1

Routine Ops + GWoT

Homeland Defense

FOUO

FOUO



MC

O 2

PRESENT REALITY

QDR/OA-06 GOAL


Army Challenges“Just in Time Readiness”

• Restoring strategic depth—Readiness of next-to-deploy forces

– Equipping brigades by 2019

– Training units to counter insurgency mission

– Continuing to rely heavily on supplemental

• Implementing Reserve Component utilization policy

– Increasing pre-mobilization readiness of Reserve Component forces

• Sustaining core capabilities while executing mission specific training

• Resetting the force for next fight

– Replacing/recapitalizing/repairing unit equipment

– Rebuilding Army prepositioned sets & War Reserve Secondary Items

– Preparing units for next deployment

• Growing a ready Army

– Synchronizing elements of growth

• Sustaining all-volunteer force

– Reducing stress on Soldiers and families

– Increasing dwell time

Supplying Army Forces for the Long War


• Transforming organizational design – Countering traditional and irregular threats– Building brigades that can fight under any joint headquarters– Redesigning Division and Corps headquarters to enable them to serve as joint headquarters– Shifting personnel from institutional force to operational force

• Modernizing all components– Implementing OSD guidance—increasing Joint interdependence– Protecting the force is a continuous process—must adapt to changing environment– Fielding Future Combat System of Systems initial spinouts during this program

• Realigning Army footprint– Implementing BRAC, Global Defense Posture Realignment, and stationing changes– Adjusting Grow the Army plan

• Implementing new readiness paradigm– Establishing Force Generation model– Assuring access to Reserve Component

• Transforming leader development– Increasing skill sets to adapt to changing environment– Improving cultural awareness

Transforming While at War“Building a Campaign-quality Army with Joint & Expeditionary Capabilities”


Patriot Engineer Military Police TransportationEOD Medical Military Intelligence Maintenance

Ground Force Initiatives

• Modularity (Standardized Unit Designs)– Building flexible and agile general purpose forces

– Converting all brigade combat teams and support brigades (Active; National Guard; Reserves)

– Completing conversions to modular organizations with equipment by 2019

• Future Combat System of Systems– Enabling networked battle command (JNN/WIN-T study underway; report out in June)

– Fielding spinouts beginning in FY08

– Fielding first Future Combat System brigade combat team by 2015 (one per year thereafter)

– Empowering Soldiers with the network (situational awareness)

– Improving maneuver, protection, and sustainment capabilities (e.g. manned ground vehicles)

– Enhancing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities (e.g. unmanned aerial systems, unmanned ground vehicles)

• Grow the Army– Increasing brigade combat team surge capacity from 18-19 to 21-22 plus 2 maneuver enhancement

brigades per rotation given a surge rotation rate of 1:2 active component and 1:4 reserve component

– Improving active component dwell by 2013 with recurrent, assured access to reserve component

– Growing and rebalancing capabilities to mitigate high demand/low density shortfalls and increase combat support/combat service support capacity:


• Six Program Evaluation Groups (PEGs) support PPBE

• Secretariat & functional proponent co-chair each PEG

• ARNG, OCAR, and G-6 serve as Integrators within each PEG

• PEGs, assisted by the Program integrators:

Build Section III of The Army Plan (TAP) Administer a set of Management Decision Packages (MDEP) Set the scope, quantity, priority, and nature of requirements Construct program performance measures and define metrics Build the POM and convert the programs into budget-level detail Help defend program during the review process Track program during execution

ASA(M&RA) & G-1ASA(ALT) & G-8ASA(M&RA) & G-3ASA(M&RA) & AASAASA(ALT) & G-4ASA(I&E) & ACSIM

ManningEquippingTraining

OrganizingSustaining

Installations

Co - ChairsTitle X Function

COCOM IPL

EOH

PEG

PPBC

SRG

SA, CSA

MACOMPOM

Integrators

3 Wise Men

3 Kings

Program Evaluation Groups

MDEP Mgrs


• Grow the Army• Implement Reserve Component utilization policy• Equip and modernize the force• Review Stationing/MILCON plan• CSA Initiatives

– Accelerate Growth– Families & Supporting Soldiers– Modularity & Modernization– Reserve Components– Leader Development– Adapting Institutional Policies & Programs– Strategic Communications

• CJCS recommendations

Issues Army is Addressing During Program Budget Review FY09-13


COCOM J8 Conference

BACKUP


• Soldier Protection: situational awareness; counter IED, mine, and sniper; improved vehicle and body armor; active protective system; chemical and biological detection/protection; unmanned systems

• Network Enabled Battle Command: communications on the move; joint integrated situational awareness through sensor integration; networked precision fires; planning and direction; scalable, tailorable, and lowest level

• Battlespace Awareness: persistent surveillance; multi-spectrum surveillance; situational awareness; real-time intelligence distributed to appropriate levels

• Force Protection: counter air, missile, rocket, artillery, and mortar; combat identification; biometrics; platform survivability

• Operational Maneuver: ground mobility; strategic and intra-theater movements

• Information Operations: cultural awareness; electronic warfare; PSYOPs

• Logistics: joint rapid distribution; logistics information fusion; situational awareness and asset visibility; tactical medical transport; reducing demand

Capability Gaps Army Must Close by 2020“Supporting the Joint Fight”


PAED

16

Growing Capabilities to Meet Global Demand

Increase ~74K across the Army by FY2013 building a total of 76 BCTs (48/28) and about 225 Support Brigades (80/85/60) Continue to rebalance capabilities across the three components

Current Program

482.4K

350.0K

205.0K

1,037.4K

Approved Program

Active

ARNG

USAR

Total

547.4K

358.2K

206.0K

1,111.6K+ 74.2K

+ 65.0K

+ 8.2K

+ 1.0K

Patriot Engineer Military Police TransportationEOD Medical Military Intelligence Maintenance

• Increases BCT surge capacity from 18-19 to 21-22 + 2 Maneuver Enhancement Brigades per rotation given a surge rotation rate of 1:2 AC and 1:4 RC• Improves AC Dwell by FY 2013 with recurrent, assured access to the RC• Grows and rebalances capabilities to mitigate HD/LD shortfalls and increase CS/CSS capacity:


Adjust (Plus-Up)

Grow

Accelerate

Rebalance

Train TTs

Convert

Reset

Modernize

Restation

5BCTs + Enablers

The Army by 74.2K

1 HBCT + 1 IBCT

Remaining Legacy Force

AC/ RC, CBT, CS, CSS

Army Equipment for distribution

New Demand; Post 1/1ID Conversion

FCS / AETF / 2nd GEN

IGPBS / BRAC

The Force Integration Challenges

Mobilize / Deploy ARNG and USAR / AC


PAED

18

Impact of Modern War

• Current commitments and demand for forces exceeds planning constructs.

• Timing of funding has impacted strategic depth.

• Changes to threat and mission have permanently increased cost of ground forces.

• Sustained commitment of ground forces requires sustained commitment of national resources.

• Changes to threat and mission are changing resources and requirements inside Army.

Cost of the Army reflects the cost of modern war


**Item Not Shown

Parachutists & Ground Troops

(PASGT) Helmet & Accessories

M4 carbine

Equipping Soldiers for War

Jungle Combat Boot

PVS 7Night Vision Device

& Accessories*

M4 Carbine

Gloves

Battle Dress Uniform

Soldier: 2000

Close Combat Optic

Load Carrying Equipment

Interceptor Body Armor

(ACU Camouflage Pattern)

Outer Tactical Vest (OTV)

Enhanced Small Arms Protective

Inserts

DeltoidAxillary

Protector **

Side Plates**

Soldier: 2006Army Combat

Helmet & Accessories

Infantry Combat Boot Type II (Tan)

Army CombatUniform

Knee and Elbow Pads

PVS 14 Monocular Night Vision

Device & Accessories

PEQ-2A Infrared Aiming Light

Gloves

Close Combat Optic

ProtectiveEyewear (Wiley X)

Thermal Weapons Sight II (Light)

PASGT Vest

ProtectiveGoggles

PVS-4Weapons Sight

PAC-4 Infrared Aiming Light*

MOLLE

Equipment Spending Per Soldier:*$11,148

Equipment Spending Per Soldier:$17,472

*Adjusted to FY06 dollars

Increased cost and increased numbers equipped


COCOM IPL

ARSTAFFIntegration

SA, CSA

COCOMASCC

COCOM Integrated Priority List (IPL)

• COCOMs highest priority capability gaps

• COCOMs main tool during PPBE process

COCOM ASCC POM • Focus Includes:

– Integrating COCOM requirements to provide joint capability

– MACOM Commander's Program AssessmentCommanders’ Narrative Assessments • Commander’s personal program assessment and

priorities• Provides information on priorities from the

MACOMs as well as selected COCOMsCOCOM Program Review

Army - Combatant Command Engagementin PPBES

BES/POM

Functional Capability

Boards

Functional Capability

Boards

Support POR

Programmatic Change

Assume Risk

Department-Level Assessment

Gap & ExcessAnalysis

DOTmLPF Change

Study

ConceptsACTDs JCIDS

LessonsExperimentsConcepts

ACTDs JCIDS

LessonsExperiments

CJCS ProgRevie

w

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