united states international trade …...chinese domestic solar consumption has expanded cells (kw)...
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cc s ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES, LLC
BEFORE THE UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION
IN THE MATTER OF
CRYSTALLINE SILICON PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS AND MODULES FROM CHINA
Inv. No. 701-TA-481 & 731-TA-1190 (First Review)
EXHIBITS TO THE TESTIMONY OF
JIM DOUGAN, VICE PRESIDENT
ECONOMIC CONSULTING SERVICES, LLC
November 27, 2018
Washington, D.C.
What has changed: Chinese Domestic Solar Consumption
Has Expanded
Installations (GW)
2012 2017
China • All Other Countries (% of Global) (% of Global)
Source: Prehearing Report at IV-43
What has changed: Chinese Domestic Solar Consumption
Has Expanded
Cells (kW) Modules (kW)
• China home market • China home market shipm ents shipments
Total exports Total exports
2017 2012 2012 2017
Source: Prehearing Report at Table IV-9 and Table IV-10 2
• Other major non-
U.S. markets
China
Other Major Non- U.S. Markets Have Strong Demand Outlook
2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: UBS Global Research
PY 17 PY 18 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-56%
-44%
1ftr ale 113
01,
1800
1600
1400
1200
Val
ue
( Mil
lio
ns
of
do
l lars
)
1000
800
600
400
200
U.S. Imports from China Have Fallen Dramatically Since 2015
Source: Prehearing Report at Table 1-10
U.S. Imports From China Would Have Been Miniscule in 2017 But for Effect of the 201
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Val
ue
( Mill
ion
s of
do
llar
s)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PY 17 PY 18 But for effect
of 201
Source: Prehearing Report at Table 1-10; U.S. Census Bureau Official Import Statistics for HTS Codes 8541.40.6020, 8541.40.6030, 8541.40.6015, and 8541.40.6025. Note: Adjusted import value reported in Prehearing Report at Table 1-10 not available on a monthly basis. Sept.-Dec. 2017 imports estimated by taking share of Census Bureau imports in Sept. — Dec. 2017 as percentage of whole year 2017 Census Bureau imports and applying percentage to the 2017 U.S. imports from China reported in Table 1-10.
Nonsubject Sources Represent Increasing
Share of U.S. Solar Imports
100% -
90%
80%
70%
• Nonsubject Sources
• China
10%
0%
MIN=
2015 2016
2017
2018
Source: Prehearing Report at Table IV-1
6
50%
40%
0%
China Faces Greater Barriers to U.S. Market Than Nonsubject Sources
201 Tariff 30%
China
201 Tariff
30%
A1i other sources