unitedboi-1qfy2013ru 10 th aug

7/31/2019 UnitedBoI-1QFY2013RU 10 Th Aug

1/11

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Pre-prov. profit 546 478 14.3 417 30.9

Source: Company, Angel Research;

During 1QFY2013, United Bank of India (UBI) registered a strong performance, withnet profit growth of 31.3% yoy and operating profit growth of 30.9% yoy, which wasabove our estimates primarily due to higher other income and lower operatingexpenses than what we estimated.

During 1QFY2013, thebanks advances and deposits grew at a healthy pace of 19.4% and 16.3%

respectively. The growth in advances was largely aided by higher priority sector

lending, primarily to the agri and small industries segment. Current deposits grew

at a strong 22.2% yoy, while growth in savings deposits remained healthy at 15.4%

yoy. The reported CASA ratio improved by 22bp to 40.5% on a yoy basis. The

bank further reduced its share of bulk deposits to total deposits to 16.2% from

21.5% in 1QFY2012. The reported NIM remained almost flat sequentially to 3.1%.

The bank reported a strong performance even on the non-interest income

(excluding treasury) front, with a growth of 30.2% yoy. On the asset quality front, the

bank witnessed a marginal sequential increase of ~5bp each in the gross and net NPA

ratio to 3.5% and 1.8% respectively. The banks slippages came in at `298cr

compared to `590cr in 4QFY2012 (excluding NPA on advance to Kingfisher

~`276cr). The annualized slippage ratio stood at 1.9% compared to 4.4% in

4QFY2012 and 2.9% in 1QFY2012. The PCR for the bank stood at 69.3%. The bank

restructured advances worth `1,120cr during the quarter (largely contributed by

restructuring of advances to Rajasthan discom, HCC, and Bharti Shipyard), taking its

outstanding restructured book to `4,093cr. The management expects no further

restructuring on any other discom advance (total discom advances `740cr). However,

they expect further restructuring of ~`600cr in the coming quarter.

We believe the bank has several levers for structurallyimproving its RoA. But execution risks in terms of improving yields while

maintaining the asset quality continue to remain an investment concern on the

stock. That said, the bank is trading at an inexpensive valuations of 0.4x FY2013E

ABV (one of the lowest in the industry). The banks peers are trading at 0.6x-0.7x

FY2014 ABV in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios.

We value the stock at 0.6x FY2014E ABV;

Key financials (Standalone)

% chg 55.9 14.3 18.7 17.5

% chg 49.7 19.4 20.6 25.9

NIM (%) 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9

P/E (x) 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.5

P/ABV (x) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

RoA (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8

RoE (%) 14.1 14.2 15.0 16.7

Source: Company, Angel Research

CMP `57

Target Price `79

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector Banking

Market Cap (` cr) 2,052

Beta 1.2

52 Week High / Low 90/46

Avg. Daily Volume 69,608

Face Value (`

) 10BSE Sensex 17,601

Nifty 5,338

Reuters Code UBOI.BO

Bloomberg Code UNTDB@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 81.6

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.8

Indian Public / Others 11.3

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 6.5 3.7 16.3

UBI* (5.4) (32.2) NA

*Note: Listed in March, 2010

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

[email protected]

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

[email protected]

022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872

[email protected]

Performance Highlights

1QFY2013 Result Update | Banking

August 8, 2012


2/11

United Bank of India 1QFY2013 Result Update

August 8, 2012 2

Exhibit 1:1QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

- on Advances / Bills 1,751 1,606 9.0 1,394 25.6 6,034 4,634 30.2- on investments 514 491 4.9 443 16.1 1,878 1,673 12.3

- on balance with RBI & others 12 7 70.8 2 652.9 16 10 56.3

- on others 6 29 - - - 34 25 35.9

Other income excl. treasury 134 180 (25.2) 103 30.2 515 439 17.5

- Fee Income 55 48 13.4 45 20.9 183 174 5.3

- Treasury Income 81 58 38.9 67 21.4 218 198 9.6

- Recoveries from writ.-off acc 10 33 (70.2) 20 (50.7) 85 59 44.3

- Others 70 99 (28.9) 38 83.4 247 206 20.1

- Employee expenses 226 234 (3.3) 215 5.3 891 814 9.4

- Other Opex 127 146 (12.9) 107 18.5 492 485 1.5

- Provisions for NPAs 125 342 (63.3) 137 (8.6) 690 436 58.2

- Provisions for Investments - (36) - 54 - 79 - -

- Other provisions 167 1 - 27 524.9 214 402 (46.6)

Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.6 12.8 1878bp 33.6 (203)bp 25.2 21.7 350bp


Exhibit 2:1QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimatesNet interest income 684 648 5.5

Non-interest income 215 148 45.4

Operating expenses 353 374 (5.6)

Provisions & cont. 292 220 32.5

Prov. for taxes 80 59 37.0



3/11


August 8, 2012 3

Exhibit 3:1QFY2013 performance (Standalone)

Advances (`cr) 62,825 63,043 (0.3) 52,607 19.4Deposits (`cr) 89,639 89,116 0.6 77,104 16.3

Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 70.1 70.7 (66)bp 68.2 186bp

Current deposits (`cr) 8,447 9,741 (13.3) 6,914 22.2

Saving deposits (`cr) 27,830 26,589 4.7 24,120 15.4

CASA deposits (` cr) 36,277 36,330 (0.1) 31,034 16.9

CASA ratio (%) 40.5 40.8 (30)bp 40.2 22bp

CAR (%) 12.5 12.7 (19)bp 13.2 (73)bp

Tier I CAR (%) 8.7 8.8 (9)bp 9.1 (41)bp

Cost of deposits 7.0 6.9 6bp 6.4 60bp

Yield on advances 11.7 11.7 (2)bp 11.2 51bp

Yield on investments 7.9 7.8 7bp 7.8 13bp

Reported NIM 3.1 3.0 5bp 3.0 3bp

Cost-to-income ratio 39.2 44.2 (500)bp 43.5 (427)bp

Gross NPAs (` cr) 2,210 2,176 1.6 1,535 44.0

Gross NPAs (%) 3.5 3.4 6bp 2.9 58bp

Net NPAs (`cr) 1,106 1,076 2.8 878 25.9

Net NPAs (%) 1.8 1.7 5bp 1.7 10bp

Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 69.3 69.2 17bp 70.2 (92)bp

Slippage ratio (%) 1.9 4.4 (252)bp 2.9 (104)bp

NPA to avg. assets (%) 0.5 1.4 (89)bp 0.6 (13)bp


Business grew at healthy pace

During 1QFY2013, the banks advances and deposits grew at a healthy pace of

19.4% and 16.3%, respectively. The growth in advances was largely aided by

higher priority sector lending, primarily to the agri (growth of 45.1% yoy) and small

industries segment (28.1% yoy). The corporate loan book registered a growth of

18.4% yoy, while the overall retail loan book remained flat on a yoy basis despite

moderate growth being witnessed in housing and education loans.

On the liabilities front, current deposits grew at a strong 22.2% yoy, while growth

in savings deposits remained healthy at 15.4% yoy. The reported CASA ratio

improved by 22bp to 40.5% on a y-o-y basis, however was lower sequentially by

30bp.

The bank further reduced its bulk deposits during the quarter, which now as a

proportion of total deposits stand at 16.2% compared to 18.0% in 4QFY2012 and

21.5% in 1QFY2012.


4/11


August 8, 2012 4

Exhibit 4:Business growth healthy during 1QFY2013


Exhibit 5:CASA ratio above 40% levels


NIM remains almost flat sequentially

During the quarter, the reported NIM for the bank remained almost flat

sequentially at 3.05%. The cost of deposits was higher sequentially by 6bp to 7.0%,

while the yield on advances was almost flat on a qoq basis to 11.7%. The yield on

investments was higher by 7bp to 7.9%.

Exhibit 6:YoA almost flat sequentially


Exhibit 7:NIM remain almost flat sequentially


Growth in non-interest income remained strong

During the quarter, the bank reported a strong performance on the non-interest

income (excluding treasury) front, with a growth of 30.2% yoy. Growth in income

from commission, exchange and brokerage segment was healthy at 20.9% yoy.

Recoveries from written off accounts came in lower at `10cr as against `20cr in

1QFY2012, however the banks treasury income grew by 21.4% yoy to `81cr.

Asset quality pressures remain

On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed a marginal sequential increase of5bp each in the gross and net NPA ratio to 3.5% and 1.8% respectively. The

banks slippages came in at `298cr compared to `590cr in 4QFY2012 (excluding

NPA on advance to Kingfisher ~`276cr). The annualized slippage ratio for the

17.9

17.3

16.6

17.8

19.4

15.6

13.3

13.3

14.5

16.3

68.2

69.4

71.4

70.7 70.1

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13

Adv. yoy chg (%) Dep. yoy chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

40.2

39.9

39.8

40.8

40.5

18.3

13.811.9

14.4

16.9

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

39.2

39.6

40.0

40.4

40.8

41.2


CASA ratio CASA yoy growth (%, RHS)

11.16

11.70

11.98

11.69 11.67

10.20

10.80

11.40

12.00

12.60


(%)

3.023.16

3.38

3.00 3.05

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50


(%)


5/11


August 8, 2012 5

quarter stood at 1.9% compared to 4.4% in 4QFY2012 and 2.9% in 1QFY2012.

As of 1QFY2013, the provision-to-coverage ratio including technical write-offs

stood at 69.3% (69.2% in 4QFY2012).

The bank restructured advances worth `1,120cr during the quarter, taking itsoutstanding restructured book to `4,093cr. The sharp jump in the restructuring

book was largely due to restructuring of advances to the Rajasthan discom

(`417cr), HCC (`311cr), and Bharti Shipyard (`198cr). The management expects

no further restructuring on any other discom advance (total discom advances at

`740cr). However, they expect further restructuring in the pipeline by ~`600cr in

the coming quarter.

Exhibit 8:NPA ratios remain on the higher side


Exhibit 9:Slippages at normalized levels


Exhibit 10:Cost-to-income ratio trends


Exhibit 11:Fee income growth trends


2.9

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.5

1.7

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.8

70.2

65.0 66.569.2 69.3

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

2.9

4.6

2.7

4.4

1.9

0.60.5

0.4

1.4

0.5

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


Slippages (%) Credit cost (%, RHS)

43.5

42.7

41.8

44.2

39.2

1.4

1.5 1.5

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0


Cost-to-income ratio (%) Opex to average assets (%, RHS)

0.

5

0.

5

0.

5

0.

7

0.

5

16.2 14.3

(2.1)

39.1

30.2

(10.0)

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8


Fee income to avg assets (%) Fee income yoy chg (%, RHS)


6/11


August 8, 2012 6

Investment arguments

Structurally strong CASA than peers

UBI has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratioduring FY200512 has been 41.4%. Even during 1QFY2013, the bank had

maintained a strong CASA ratio of ~40%, which is the highest among its peers,

which consists of banks like Uco Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and Syndicate

Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less volatile,

accounted for 31.0% of the total deposits, while current deposits accounted for

9.4%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a large retail

customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of the total

branch network of ~1,700 branches, 81% is concentrated in the eastern and

northeastern regions. Moreover, 59% of UBIs branches are located in rural and

semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.

leading to higher NIM

In 4QFY2010, UBI reported a NIM of 2.48%. However, measures taken by the

management in the form of shedding high-cost bulk deposits (16.2% in

1QFY2013 as against nearly 30% two years ago), improvement in CASA ratio by

~250bp from 38.1% in 4QFY2010 to 40.5% in 1QFY2013, shedding of

low-yielding loans (~`1,700cr during FY2011) and a substantial increase in CD

ratio (664bp increase in FY2011 and 201bp increase in FY2012) have resulted in

a sharp rise in the NIM to 3.1% in 1QFY2013. Further, we believe with a strong

CASA ratio, the bank is better placed than its peers to sustain its NIM going

forward.

Investment concerns

Lower other income compared to peers

During FY2012, other income excluding treasury grew by a reasonably healthy

17.5% yoy, in-line with the banks advances growth. In spite of the decent growth

witnessed, other income (excluding treasury) as a percentage of average assets

stands at 0.5%, which is on the lower side compared to peers. Even after factoring

in a 16.2% CAGR over FY201214E in other income excluding treasury and taking

into account revision in fee charges during 1HFY2012, the proportion of otherincome excluding treasury to average assets is expected to only increase to 0.6% of

overall assets.

Outlook and valuation

We believe the bank has several levers for structurally improving its RoA, but

execution risks in terms of improving yields while maintaining the asset quality

continue to remain an investment concern on the stock. That said, the bank is

trading at an inexpensive valuation of 0.4x FY2013E ABV (one of the lowest in the

industry). The banks peers are trading at 0.6x-0.7x FY2014 ABV, in spite of

having similar, and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. We value the stock at

0.6x FY2014E ABV;


7/11


August 8, 2012 7

Exhibit 12:Key assumptions

Credit growth 15.5 17.0 15.0 17.0Deposit growth 11.0 14.0 11.0 14.0

CASA ratio 40.8 40.4 40.8 40.4

NIMs 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9

Other income growth (12.2) 12.9 (5.7) 6.5

Growth in staff expenses 15.0 15.0 12.0 16.0

Growth in other expenses 15.0 15.0 12.0 16.0

Slippages 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.5

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 13:Change in estimates

NII 2,955 2,943 (0.4) 3,485 3,457 (0.8)

Non-interest income 644 691 7.4 727 737 1.4

Operating expenses 1,591 1,549 (2.6) 1,829 1,797 (1.8)

Provisions & cont. 918 994 8.3 1,074 1,053 (1.9)

PBT 1,090 1,091 0.1 1,309 1,344 2.7

Prov. for taxes 354 354 0.1 425 436 2.7

Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 14:P/ABV band


40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Price (`) 0.5x 0.65x 0.8x 0.95x 1.1x


8/11


August 8, 2012 8

Exhibit 15:Recommendation summary

AxisBk Buy 1,097 1,373 25.2 1.5 1.9 7.7 18.1 1.6 20.8

FedBk Accumulate 425 458 7.9 1.0 1.1 7.3 12.1 1.3 14.7

HDFCBk Neutral 598 - - 3.4 - 16.6 27.9 1.8 22.0

ICICIBk* Buy 958 1,169 22.1 1.5 1.9 11.7 20.9 1.4 15.5

SIB Accumulate 23 27 13.8 1.0 1.1 5.5 9.0 0.9 18.5

YesBk Buy 367 453 23.4 1.9 2.3 8.6 24.2 1.5 23.8

AllBk Accumulate 130 147 13.1 0.5 0.6 3.2 4.6 0.9 17.0

AndhBk Accumulate 100 107 7.4 0.6 0.7 3.9 2.7 0.9 15.8

BOB Buy 658 851 29.2 0.8 1.0 4.5 10.1 1.0 18.0

BOI Buy 285 354 24.1 0.7 0.9 4.0 23.5 0.8 17.0

BOM Neutral 47 - - 0.6 - 4.1 35.6 0.6 15.5

CanBk Buy 361 421 16.7 0.6 0.8 4.2 7.2 0.8 15.3CentBk Neutral 72 - - 0.7 - 3.3 103.6 0.6 15.1

CorpBk Accumulate 400 454 13.4 0.5 0.7 3.6 2.1 0.8 16.3

DenaBk Buy 90 107 18.7 0.5 0.7 3.6 5.1 0.8 16.4

IDBI# Buy 87 105 21.6 0.5 0.7 3.7 21.2 0.9 14.7

IndBk Accumulate 178 197 10.5 0.6 0.7 4.0 6.4 1.1 17.4

IOB Accumulate 73 84 14.8 0.5 0.5 3.2 31.0 0.6 14.4

J&KBk Neutral 936 - - 0.8 - 5.1 5.1 1.2 17.5

OBC Buy 237 278 17.1 0.5 0.6 3.6 29.0 0.9 14.3

PNB Buy 744 975 31.1 0.7 1.0 4.3 9.9 1.0 18.0

SBI* Buy 2,061 2,443 18.5 1.3 1.5 7.8 23.1 1.0 18.1

SynBk Buy 96 119 23.1 0.5 0.7 3.3 15.7 0.8 17.8

UcoBk Neutral 69 - - 0.7 - 3.9 11.7 0.6 15.3

UnionBk Buy 170 238 39.8 0.6 0.8 3.4 23.6 0.8 17.1

VijBk Neutral 53 - - 0.6 - 4.6 13.0 0.5 13.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF

Company Background

United Bank of India is a mid-sized public sector bank, with operations mostly

concentrated in the eastern and northeastern states of India (81%). These states

have contributed to the bank's high CASA deposits, though low credit demand

especially in the northeast has prompted the bank to so far rely more on large

corporate loans, including in consortium.


9/11


August 8, 2012 9

- YoY Growth (%) (21.3) 28.4 19.8 55.9 14.3 18.7 17.5

- YoY Growth (%) 33.9 5.5 13.8 14.0 15.0 (5.7) 6.5

- YoY Growth (%) (8.5) 20.6 18.0 43.9 14.5 13.1 15.4

- YoY Growth (%) 16.0 15.7 2.8 21.0 6.5 12.0 16.0

- YoY Growth (%) (35.1) 30.0 44.2 72.1 21.4 14.0 14.9

- YoY Growth (%) (30.7) 49.7 8.0 80.1 17.0 1.4 5.9

- YoY Growth (%) (41.1) (1.6) 132.6 63.0 26.8 28.6 23.1

- as a % of PBT 19.1 35.0 21.5 21.7 25.5 32.4 32.4

- YoY Growth (%) (45.7) (20.9) 181.0 62.5 20.7 16.6 23.1

- YoY Growth (%) (45.7) (20.9) 166.1 49.7 19.4 20.6 25.9

Share Capital 1,532 1,782 866 1,144 1,161 1,161 1,161

Equity 1,532 1,532 316 344 361 361 361

Preference - 250 550 800 800 800 800

Reserves & Surplus 1,129 1,295 3,037 3,877 4,419 4,930 5,570

Deposits 46,971 54,536 68,180 77,845 89,116 98,919 112,768

- Growth (%) 26.4 16.1 25.0 14.2 14.5 11.0 14.0

Borrowings 1,162 457 915 2,887 3,195 3,547 4,036

Tier 2 Capital 1,275 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,725 1,984 2,321

Other Liab & Prov. 2,242 2,436 2,481 2,763 2,394 2,691 3,007

Cash balances 5,249 4,532 4,707 5,943 5,092 3,957 4,511

Bank balances 623 1,878 1,671 1,385 2,185 2,426 2,761

Investments 18,515 17,924 26,068 26,259 29,059 31,455 33,503

Advances 27,858 35,394 42,330 53,502 63,043 72,500 84,825

- Growth (%) 25.7 27.0 19.6 26.4 17.8 15.0 17.0

Fixed Assets 623 624 651 819 805 867 957

Other Assets 1,443 1,679 1,578 2,133 1,826 2,027 2,307

- Growth (%) 28.4 14.2 24.1 16.9 13.3 11.0 13.8


10/11


August 8, 2012 10

Ratio analysis (Standalone)

NIMs 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9Cost to Income Ratio 65.9 63.3 55.1 46.3 43.1 42.6 42.9

RoA 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8

RoE 7.1 5.1 11.6 14.1 14.2 15.0 16.7

CASA Ratio 38.6 37.8 38.1 40.8 40.8 40.8 40.4

Credit/Deposit Ratio 59.3 64.9 62.1 68.7 70.7 73.3 75.2

CAR 11.2 13.3 12.8 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.7

- Tier I 6.4 7.6 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6

Gross NPAs 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.6

Net NPAs 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7

Slippages 1.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 3.6 2.5 2.5

Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6

Provision Coverage 59.8 48.5 68.0 72.1 69.2 70.0 72.5

EPS 0.9 0.7 9.6 13.3 15.1 18.2 23.0

ABVPS (75% cover.) 13.4 13.6 86.3 101.2 109.0 122.7 142.9

DPS 0.3 0.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 3.5 4.5

PER (x) 60.0 75.9 5.9 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.5

P/ABVPS (x) 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Dividend Yield 0.5 - 3.5 3.9 4.2 6.2 7.9

NII 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.60 2.6 2.7 2.9

(-) Prov. Exp. 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.00 1.0 0.9 0.9

Adj. NII 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.59 1.6 1.8 2.0

Treasury 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.24 0.2 0.1 0.0

Int. Sens. Inc. 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.83 1.8 1.9 2.0

Other Inc. 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.53 0.5 0.6 0.6

Op. Inc. 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.36 2.3 2.5 2.6

Opex 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.56 1.4 1.4 1.5PBT 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.80 0.9 1.0 1.1

Taxes 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.17 0.2 0.3 0.4

0.3 0.2 0.5 0.63 0.7 0.7 0.8

Preference Dividend - - 0.0 0.08 0.1 0.1 0.1

Leverage 23.7 25.7 26.4 25.84 24.9 24.5 24.4


11/11


August 8, 2012 11

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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connection with the use of this information.

Disclosure of Interest Statement United Bank of India

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below`

1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

unitedboi-1qfy2013ru 10 th aug

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