universidade federal de minas gerais

The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and

Associated Carbon Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon

Low Emissions Pathway to Emerging Economies and its Contribution towards Sustainable Development

WWF Side Event

UNFCCC- COP/MOP 13

10th December 2007

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

1. Overview – the scale of emissions2. The Brazilian Amazon3. The ARPA Programme

• Financial and technical support to Amazon Protected Areas

• 50 million hectares4. The analysis

• Objectives• Methods• Preliminary results

5. Conclusions and next steps

This presentation


Brazil - 4º. Larger Emitter (2000)

Deforestation62%

Agriculture

22%

Energy16%

WRI, 2007


Brazilian Amazon

•330 million hectares (ha) of remaining forest

State boundaries


Brazilian Amazon

State boundarie

•Lack of governance and contradictory policies

•Infra-structure development, including continental integration •Agribusiness growth also over natural habitats

•Illegal and unsustainable logging

•‘Land grabbing’ associated with social crimes


Protected Areas

48% of the 330 million ha remaining forest

are located in protected areas

= 23.9 billion tons of C

(49% of the total)

State boundaries

Indigenous lands


ARPA - Amazon Region Protected Areas Programme

• Financial and technical support to (Brazilian) Amazon protected areas

• Objectives:– Create 37.5 million hectares (ha) of protected areas– Implement 12.5 million ha of protected areas

• Launched in 2002 by the Brazilian Government– implemented by the federal and state institutions– with support of GEF and World Bank, KfW and GTZ, WWF-Brasil

(on behalf of WWF Network), FUNBIO, amongst others

Total = 50 million ha


31,2 million ha

19% of Amazon

protected areas

State boundaries

Protected Areas w/

ARPA Support

Indigenous lands


Authors

Britaldo Silveira Soares FilhoLaura Dietzsch Paulo MoutinhoAlerson FalieriHermann Rodrigues

The Potential of ARPA in Reducing Deforestation and Associated Carbon

Emissions in the Brazilian Amazon

The study has not been published yet, the data on this presentation should be consider as prelimanary results


Objective of this Study

Evaluate the contribution of ARPA-Supported Protected Areas in lowering Brazilian carbon emissions

ThreatsARPA Areas

Carbon StocksReduced Carbon Emissions

How we did it?


Carbon Stock within

ARPA Areas

Saatchi et al., 2007

47 billion tons of C in

the Amazon

4.5 billion tons of C in

ARPA-supported protected

areas

State boundaries


Spatially explicit modelScenario Generating Model

Simamazonia www.csr.ufmg.br

Modeling conservation in the Amazon basinSoares Filho et al., Nature, 2006

Level of Future Threat (2050)

State boundaries


Reduced Emissions vs. Carbon Stocks

Considering carbon and threats, protected areas located in deforestation frontier assume more importance

Total for ARPA-supported protected areasCarbon stocks = 4.5 billion tons of CReduced emissions = 1.8 billion tons of C

(2050)

Preliminary results


Simulating the potential of protected areas in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions in BAU

scenarios (until 2050)Carbon emission from scenarios of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

20082010

20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

20282030

20322034

20362038

20402042

20442046

20482050

million tons of C

BAU - Scenario (Soares-Filho et al., 2006) BAU - Scenario after massive creation of 2003-2007 PAs BAU - Scenario after massive creation of 2003-2007 PAs and 2008 expansion

7 billion tons of C

0.6 billion tons of C

Preliminary results

17,7

10,7 10,1

5,85 5,85

1,15 1,75

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1 2 3

Bill

ion

to

ns

of

C

Reduced C emissions by ARPA

Reduced C emissions

C Emissions

BAU Scenarios and Carbon Emissions (2050)

2. BAU Scenario after massive

creation of 2003-2007 PA

3. BAU Scenario after massive

creation of 2003-2007 PA and 2008 ARPA expansion

1. BAU Scenario

(Soares-Filho et al., 2006)

7.0 7.6

Preliminary results


• The preliminary results show the potential importance of protected areas and ARPA in reducing carbon emissions (in the Brazilian Amazon)

Summarizing

Reduced C emissions

Approach / scenario

1.8 billion tons All ARPA areas (31,2 million ha)

1.15 billion tons ARPA areas created between 2003 and 2007

0.6 billion tons If 2008 ARPA areas expansion occurs

Preliminary results


Next Steps

• Evaluate the historical effect of ARPA in the management of protected areas

• Study the direct and indirect reduction of emissions in many scenarios

• Analyse scenarios of protected areas expansions• Indicate priorities for new protected areas

(based on climate changes mitigation and adaptation, besides the current biological diversity guidance)


Protected Areas: Lessons Learned (Brazilian Amazon)

the most important tools for nature conservation a significant base to the sustainable development but… not sufficient without broader scale actions and policies

Basket approach Sustainable community livelihoods Sustainable forest management Sustainable agriculture and cattle ranching Sustainable infra-structure development

immediate impact to slow deforestation take away the possibility of land speculation

establishment and consolidation of protected areas with local support is key for the long term conservation


UNFCCC Links

• ARPA contributes to long term broad polices and measures in reducing future deforestation and associated carbon emissions - SDPAMS

• National Programme– Technology transfer and South—South cooperation– Finance – Governance and participation


Thank you!

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]@csr.ufmg.br

http://www.csr.ufmg.br/simamazonia


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