università di padova lasa – laboratorio di analisi dei sistemi ambientali 6th eloise meeting...
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6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Defining and modelling the Coastal Zone affected by the Po
river (Italy)
Artioli Y., Bendoricchio G., Palmeri L.
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
The EUROCAT project
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
The POCAT Consortium
University of Padova
CNR-IIA
CIES – University of Calabria
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Eutrophication in NACZ
Nutrients loads from PO in '96-'00 [t/y]
TN DIN TP
172'543 123'482 8'064
Trophic state of the Coastal Zone average concentration '96-'00 [g/l]
TN TP Chl-a TRIX
436 20.6 10.2 5.3
Classification of coastal water [d.lgs. 152/99]
TRIX Trophic state
2-4 Good
4-5 Moderate
5-6 Poor
6-8 Bad
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Coastal Zone database
#S #S #S #S #S
#S #S #S #S
#S #S%[
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Cattolica
Venezia
1002
1009
1019
2004
2014
Ferrara
i1 i2 i3 i4 i5
i6 i7 i8 i9
i10 i11
#/#
Pontelagoscuro
2
4
9
14
19
302
304
309
314
319
1004
1014 #S INTERREG
%[ DAPHNE
Sampling Stations
0 70 140 Kilometers
N
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Definition of a Coastal Zone affected by a river discharge
• Area that is sensitive to the influence of the water discharged by the river
• A point in a CZ is sensitive to the river water discharge if the variance of salinity is greater then an arbitrary value
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Definition of CZ
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
WASP6 application to the POCZ
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
WASP6 application to the POCZ
• Calibration of the hydrodynamic model using the TOXI module
• Calibration of the water quality model using the EUTRO module
Hydrodynamic model
TOXIEUTRO
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Calibration
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Calibration
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Calibration
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Calibration
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Calibration – trophic stateTRIX - seg #1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
month
TR
IX
simulated observed
TRIX - seg #2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
month
TR
IX
simulated observed
TRIX - seg #3.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
month
TR
IX
simulated observed
TRIX - Coastal Zone
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
month
TR
IX
simulated observed
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Future scenarios
DRIVER
PRESSURE STATE
IMPACT
RESPONSE
MONERISLoads reduction
WASP6CZ water quality
DEFINITEcost-benefit
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Scenarios' nutrient loads reductionN [%]
-15
-10
-5
0
+5
2001 2008 2016
BAU baseBAU highPOT1POT2POT3DG
P [%]
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
+5
2001 2008 2016
BAU baseBAU highPOT1POT2POT3DG
MONERIS result
Input on WASP6
MONERIS result
Input on WASP6
BAU baseline
2.10% 5.00%
BAU highline
4.60% 0.40%
POT1 -3.10% -28.20%POT2 -6.70% -28.80%POT3 -9.80% -28.90%DG -11.70% -11.70% -34.60% -34.60%
-6.50% -28.60%
Scenario% variation of N load at 2016 % variation of P load at 2016
3% 3%
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
CZ scenarios resultsResults
INPUT
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Results
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Eutrophic risk
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Conclusions• Scientific definition of a coastal zone affected by a
river discharge
• WQ model calibrated that permits a deeper knowledge of the eutrophic dynamics in the CZ
• The simulation of future scenarios show a non-linear response of the CZ to changes on nutrient input loadsThe WFD objectives at the 2016 could be accomplished in the POT and DG scenario,BUT only in the average value
6th ELOISE meeting
Portoroz 15-18 November 2004
Università di PadovaLASA – Laboratorio di Analisi dei
Sistemi Ambientali
Acknowledgements:
Daphne oceanographic structure of Environmental Protection Agency of Region Emilia-Romagna
Questions???