University of Groningen

Een macro-model van een micro-economie. Een empirisch macro-model voor de analyse vande Surinaamse micro-economie en de simulatie van ontwikkelingsbeleid.Schaaijk, Marinus Leonardus Johannes Hendrikus Antonius van

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Publication date:1991

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Citation for published version (APA):Schaaijk, M. L. J. H. A. V. (1991). Een macro-model van een micro-economie. Een empirisch macro-modelvoor de analyse van de Surinaamse micro-economie en de simulatie van ontwikkelingsbeleid. Groningen:s.n.

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Append ices b i j : Een Macro-modeL van een Mic ro-economie

SUMMÀRY

This s tudy cons is ts o f the cons t ruc t ion o f an empi r i ca l macro-model- of a micro-economy, the small and very open economy ofSur iname. The mode l thereo f has been used fo r the ana lys is o fthe economic development of Suriname and the simulat ion ofd i f fe ren t deve lopment s t ra teg ies .

If one tr ies to bui ld a model for a smaLL open economy, oneis confronted wlth the problem that the l-aw of large numbersdoes no t work in the expor t sec tor . Àpprox imate ly 90 t o fexports is furnj-shed by only eleven products. In thats i tua t ion the deve lopment o f to ta l expor t p r ices" vo lumes, andinvestments 1n the export sector, is domj-nated bi j accidentalfac to rs . They make i t d i f f i cu l t to ge t the under ly j .ngeconomica l behav ioura l re la t ionsh ips in the p ic tu re . However ,we have so lved th is p rob lem by bu j - ld ing a mic ro-b lock fo r thee x p o r t s e c t o r , w h i c h c o n s i s t s o f s p e c i a l p r i c e , p r o d u c t Í o n a n dinvestment functions for every of the eleven mainexpor tp roduc ts . Thanks to the method o f the mic ro-b lock i tappeared no t on ly feas ib le to incorpora te the expor t sec tor o fa èmal l open economy in an empi r i cá l - macro-mode l , bu t i t a lsoo f f o r q t h c n n n n r i r r n i l - r r l - n h r r i I À a h r i Á n a a . r ^ < < * h o r i r r o r

which d iv ides bus i -ness-economics and macro-economics . w i ththis model one can studv the interaction between costs andpr ices a t the mic ro-1eveI and the produc t Íon , economic a rowthand incomes on the macro- ]eve l .

In the rnode l the "para l - l -e1 marke t " i s a lso incorpora ted .Th is marke t was in t roduced in 1984/1985 and s ince tha t t imeother lmport and consumption functions are in force and adoub l -e exchange ra te i s opera t ive .

Further the model has a government-bIock, with semi-behavioural equations for incomes and expenditures ofd n t t ê r n m ê n t

For the sake o f es t imat lon o f the equat ions o f the mode lth is s tudv s ta r ted w l th the cons t ruc t ion o f a cons is ten td a t a s e t o v e r t h e y e a r s 1 9 5 4 u p t o 1 9 8 7 . S e e t h e s p e c i a lpub l i ca t i -on "Mic romàcrodataset " Ëor a de ta i led descr ip t ion o fth is s ta t i s t i . ca l - ac t i v i t y . In the Mic romacrodataset i s a lsor a n n - + à Á : L . a r r * + F. . re book-keep lngmode l - 'MÀCROSABC", w i th wh ichthe "Monetarv Survevs " and the "Nat iona l Accounts , ' a regenera ted . Th ; Mic ror iacrodataset together w i th Macros g tvesa l1 the mi -c ro and macro t ime ser ies wh ich are needed toes t imate the macro-mode l named

t,tost eguations of MACMIC are estimated seperately, but somealso s imu l taneous ly . Bes ides tha t we tes ted the mode l by wayo f h i s t o r i c a l s i m u l a t i o n s o v e r d i f f e r e n t p e r i o d s : 5 4 - 6 0 ; 6 l -6 7 ; 6 B - 7 5 ; 7 6 - 8 2 ; 8 3 - 8 7 . T h ê h i s t o r l c a l s i m u l - a t i o n s c o n s i s t a tthe same t ime of an analysis of the economic development andre la t ions in the Sur inameÈe economv. we a lso made a base l inef o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 8 8 u p t o 2 O O I

Append ices b i j : Een Uac

Based on a shor t survey o: :?"9.1"? d i f ferent pot lc , ie icne mode1. ÀIso some- pot i -y_devel_opment s t racegies to r::. _i!" mi.cro_macro charactt

3;;ii:t.i;d Para11e1 -;;;i'

_^1! : preparat ion of concre::cope - of th is theoret ica i s: : . :_ _" I :? avai_t_abre on d iskei9, ry" . the opportuni ty to i rth_is study iï a more intensl311,_ ululy:it and simutationworJ< on further improvementv v v r r v r u v .

: : il : fii ̂ ffi. ".ï..."u ".s."".;,u,genera l i sa t ion o f our da ta haa_Lready been used f . ; th r ;Ë .

3 0

an een Mic ro-economie

lon o f an empÍ r ica l macro-and very open economy ofused fo r the ana lys is o f

ne and the slmulat ion of

a smafl- open economy, onethe 1aw of large numbers

or . Àpprox imate ly 90 t o fLeven produc ts . fn tha txpor t p r ices , vo lumes, ands dominated bi j accidental

to ge t the under ly lngin the p ic tu re . However ,

J ing a mic ro-b lock fo r the,c ia1 pr ice , p roduc t j -on and

of the eleven maln.od o f the mic ro-b1ock i tro ra te the expor t sec tor o fl - macro-mode l , bu t i t a lso

b r i d g e a c r o s s t h e r i v e r ,and macro-economics . v l i thrac t ion be tween cos ts andr roduc t lon , economic a rowth

et " i s a lso incorpora ted ./1985 and s ince tha t t ime:i-ons are in force and a

, rnment -b lock , w i th semi -es and expend i tu res o f

he equationst ruc t ion o f

the model-cons is ten t

i o 1 9 8 7 . S e e t h e s p e c i a la d e t a i l e d d e s c r i p t i o n o fMic romacrodataset i s a lso

l1 *MÀCROSÀBC", w i th wh lch"Nat iona l Àccounts t r a re

ogether w i th Macros g ivesr iês wh ich are needed toT a ' l l

mated sepera te ly , bu t some'e tested the model- by wayF e r e n t p e r i o d s : 5 4 - 6 0 ; 6 L -LcaL s imu la t ions cons is t a te economlc development and. we also made a base l- i-ne

Àppend ices b i j : Een Macro- rnode l van een Mic ro-economie

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