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2013 InternationalTourism Results andProspects for 2014

UNWTO News Conference

HQ, Madrid, Spain20 January 2014

John G.C. Kester

Acting Director,Tourism Market Trends Programme



International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution

World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

+2.0% -3.9% +6.5% +4.9% +5.0%+4.0%

International tourism fourth strong year in a row



World Inbound Tourism: International Tourist Arrivals, 2013* (million)


Middle East, 52

mn, 5%

Africa, 56 mn,

5%

Americas, 169

mn, 16%

Asia and the

Pacific, 248 mn,23%

Europe, 563

mn, 52%

Absolute numbers 2013 by region



International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2013, million)


29

14

6

3

0.10

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Europe Asia and the

Pacific

Americas Africa Middle East

Increase 2013 by region

52 mil lionadditional arrivals



International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)


2

3

8

2

6

9

4

5

4

3

7

5

8

6

-5

4 4

76

4

10

45

4

1

4

2

65

0

4.0

5.0

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

W o r l d

N o r t h e r n

E u r o p e

W e s t e

r n E u r o p e

C e n t r a l / E

a s t e r n E u

.

S o u t h

e r n / M

e d i t e r . E u

.

N o r t h - E a

s t A s i a

S o u t h

- E a s t A s i

a

O c e a n i a

S o u t h A s i

a

N o r t h

A m e r i c

a

C a r i b b e a

n

C e n t r a l A

m e r i c a

S o u t h

A m e r i c

a

N o r t h

A f r i c a

S u b s a

h a r a n

A f r i c a M i d

d l e E a s t

12/11 13*/12

2013: South-East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, Southern

and Mediterranean Europe and North Africa led growth



International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

' 9 0 / 8 9

' 9 1 / 9 0

' 9 2 / 9

1

' 9 3 / 9 2

' 9 4 / 9 3

' 9 5 / 9

4

' 9 6 / 9 5

' 9 7 / 9 6

' 9 8 / 9 7

' 9 9 / 9 8

' 0 0 / 9 9

' 0 1 / 0 0

' 0 2 / 0

1

' 0 3 / 0 2

' 0 4 / 0 3

' 0 5 / 0

4

' 0 6 / 0 5

' 0 7 / 0 6

' 0 8 / 0 7

' 0 9 / 0 8

' 1 0 / 0 9

' 1 1 / 1 0

1 2 * / 1

1

% c

h a n g e o v e r p r e v i o u s y e a r

International tourist arrivals

International tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closely

Asian financialand economiccrisis: receipts

grew slower

11S, SARS,economicdownturn:

receipts moreaffected

‘Greatrecession’:receipts

more

affected

and slower

to recover

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International tourismreceipts 2012:

US$ 1,079 bi ll ioneuro 840 billion

(miles de millones)



International Tourism Expenditure

(% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

C h i n a

U n i t e

d S t a t

e s

G e r m a n y

U n i t e d K i n g

d o m

R u s s i a n

F e d e r a t i o n

F r a n c e

C a n a d a

J a p a n

A u s t r a l i a I t a

l y

S i n g a p o r e B r a z i l

B e l g i u m

N e t h

e r l a n d s

K o r e a ,

R e p u b l i

c o f

H o n g K o

n g ( C h i n

a )

N o r w a y

S w e d e n

S p a i n

S w i t z e r l a n d

I n d i a

M a l a y

s i a

T a i w a

n ( p r . o f C h i n

a )

2012 2013* ytd

Major outbound markets

Emerging markets remain hot in 2013

B

RC



Outlook

www.unwto.org/facts



UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse


150

144 140 137 132

71

131 139122 125

138

119

144 140 136 143

98

72

140127

121129

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Confidence upbeat




International tourist arrivals

6.0 5.76.5

2.0

-3.9

6.5

4.94.0

5.0

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Forecast

2014: 4% to 4.5%

Outlook: World

c h a n g e (

% )



Projection 2014

Actual data

+4.6%

+6.2%

+3.0%

+6.2%

+2.9%

+3.8%

Average

2005-2013

2013

World +5.0% +4% to +4½%

Europe +5.4% +3% to +4%

Asia and the Pacific +6.0% +5% to +6%

Americas +3.6% +3% to +4%

Africa +5.6% +4% to +6%

Middle East +0.3% +0% to +5%

International tourism: projection full year 2014




International Tourist Arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

m i l l i o

n

Trend 1995-2010

Tourism Towards 2030 projection

Actual 1995-2013*

1.4 bn

1,087 mn

1.8 bn

529 mn


Actual Trend vs. Tourism Towards 2030 projection

World



Thank you very muchfor your attention!

John G.C. Kester

Acting Director,Tourism Market Trends Programme

World Tourism Organization(UNWTO)

www.unwto.org

unwto fitur 2014 hq jk 1pp 0

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