update february 11, 2015. typical tfcc usage pattern (2013)
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Natural Flow and Reach Gain Forecasting for Upper Snake
UpdateFebruary 11, 2015
Typical TFCC Usage Pattern (2013)
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3/1/2013 4/1/2013 5/1/2013 6/1/2013 7/1/2013 8/1/2013 9/1/2013 10/1/2013
CFS
Blkft-Neeley RG from WD1 Accounting WD1 TFCC Nat Flow Div WD1 TFCC Total Div
Storage Used
Runoff
RNF passing Blkft
Storage Date: June 18
2014 Precipitation at TWF
4.8 inches in August (average is 0.48 inches)
August precipitation
2014 Usage Pattern
2014 Storage Diversion
June 18
Forecasting Models
PredictandDate of Forecast
March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15
Storage Date
Variables HeiseQUP_AftonWY HeiseQU
02N37E02ABA1SpringCrHeiseQU
08S24E31DAC109S25E03CAC1P_AftonCYSnow_AF
StatisticsR2
adj = 0.801SEest = 11.0 days
R2adj = 0.755
SEest = 12.2 daysR2
adj = 0.795SEest = 11.2 days
R2adj = 0.827
SEest = 11.6 days
Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date
VariablesP_Afton_WYP_AhtiHeiseQU
03N37E12BDB108S25E36DAA109S25E03CAC1HeiseQU
02N37E02ABA109S25E03CAC1SpringCrHeiseQU
08S25E36DAA1Snow_AFHeiseQU
StatisticsR2
adj = 0.752SEest = 46,373 af
R2adj = 0.709
SEest = 50,178 afR2
adj = 0.747SEest = 46,846 af
R2adj = 0.753
SEest = 52,017 af
Diversion Deficit
VariablesP_Alty, P_RiwiP_RxgiHeiseQU
02N37E02ABA109S25E03CAC1SpringCrSnow_AFHeiseQU
09S25E03CAC108S24E31DAC1SpringCrP_AftonCYReservoirFill
02N37E02ABA160d avgP_AftonReservoirFill
StatisticsR2
adj = 0.798SEest = 28,278 af
R2adj = 0.787
SEest = 31,403 afR2
adj = 0.787SEest = 31,403 af
R2adj = 0.817
SEest = 30,285 af
Calibration period: 1991-2010
Storage Date Prediction
July 2
July 10 - 15
Calib
ratio
n
Veri
ficati
on
Natural Flow Diversion Prediction
399,400af
236,000 af
Calib
ratio
n
Veri
ficati
on
344,200af
Deficit Prediction
240,118 af
97,600 af
Calib
ratio
n
Veri
ficati
on
246,780 af
161,000 af
Comparison (Preliminary Numbers)Storage Date
Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date
Actual ModelsJuly 10 (Mar)
July 2 July 13 (Apr)July 14 (May)July 15 (Jun)[June prediction based on avg of 3
models]
Actual Models399,442 (Mar)
344,200 ac-ft 269,500 (Apr)280,800 ac-ft 290,400 (May)without August storms 236,000 (Jun)
Comparison (preliminary numbers)Deficit
Actual Model - best159,500 (Mar)
97,600 ac-ft 240,100 (Apr)161,000 ac-ft 196,446 (May)without August storms 246,800 (Jun)
Comparison of Heise regression with Alternate
Calib
ratio
n
Veri
ficati
on
ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains - Nr Blackfoot to Neeley
ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains – Neeley to Minidoka
Conclusion / Next StepsRe-calibrate models with latest data and with
wells that were not discontinued in 2010