Upstate Community Growth

PowerPoint Information:Dr. Barry Nocks

Clemson UniversityCenter for Community Growth & Change

Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC

Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC

Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC

Development Entry, Clemson, SC

South Carolina will grow by more than 1 million by 2025; what about the Upstate?

Upstate Projections

Today: 1.22 Million People

62.2% Urban 527,274 Housing Units

67.3% Single Family

2025: 1.56 Million People*

340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg

Counties 659,412 Housing Units

*according to SC Budget & Control Board

Projections – Retail Space

Additional Needs for 2025: 6.75 million square

feet (or 155 acres) 67 (100,000 s.f.)

neighborhood strip centers, or

5.5 Haywood Malls

Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development

Haywood Mall Vicinity - Haywood Mall Vicinity - GreenvilleGreenville

Projections – Office Space

Additional Needs for 2025 (continued) 6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres)

6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet each, or

2x the amount of office space currently in downtown Greenville

Downtown GreenvilleDowntown Greenville

Projections – Industrial Space

Additional Needs for 2025: 27.1 million square feet (or

622 acres) 11-12 new BMW

plants Equivalent in size to

135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf)

BMW Manufacturing Plant – BMW Manufacturing Plant – GreerGreer

Oconee County Commerce Oconee County Commerce CenterCenter

Projections – Hotel Rooms

Additional Needs for 2025: 7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71

new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel)

Poinsett Hotel - GreenvillePoinsett Hotel - Greenville

Holiday Inn Express - AndersonHoliday Inn Express - Anderson

Upstate Growth is Necessary & Desirable

Economic diversification Jobs – growth in numbers and quality Tax base – support of quality services Cultural growth & diversity We seek to maintain our quality of life while

encouraging growth

How have we grown? Greenville-Spartanburg

is the 5th most sprawling area

(Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density)

Sprawl Rankings

1. Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA

2. Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, NC

3. Raleigh-Durham, NC

4. Atlanta, GA

5. Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Charlotte – Atlanta – Greenville

Growth by Decade

997,666

1,312,474

1,763,626

2,233,324

2,959,950

4,112,198

588,170702,383

840,347971,391

1,162,093

1,499,293

484,215 546,319 615,491743,284 830,563

962,441

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Decade

Po

pu

lati

on

Atlanta, GA MSA Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA Greenville--Spartanburg--Anderson, SC MSA

> 800

400 - 800

200 - 400

100 - 200

0 - 100

Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998)

*1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census

Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor

# people per square mile

Selected Impacts of 340,000 more people

Development Impacts Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Parks and Open Space Education Public Safety Direct costs of serving new residents

Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics

Transportation

Transportation - a key for growth

The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050

This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit

Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge

Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth

SC DOT Cost Estimates

Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 is identified at $56.87 billion

Road related needs: $47.57 billion Upstate needs at 30% of total: $14.27 billion

Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002

Parks & Recreation

Parks & Recreation – Quality of Life

Recreation Center- Anderson, SC

Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life Passive and active recreation Trails, athletic facilities, play

structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas

Reduction of urban heat islands Public gathering space Leisure and community facilities

With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase

*Only active parks included here

Parks & Recreation

Projected costs are rough estimates – Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site

improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials

Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks

Park Amenities Are Expensive!! Example: Play Structure = $35,000

Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.

Parks & Recreation

Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres) 2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres) 2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres) 0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres)

Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres) 18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres) 15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres) 4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres)

Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres) 60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres) 48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres) 12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres)

Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres) 22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres) 17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres) 4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres)

Walhalla Soccer Field

Impacts on Selected Counties

1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Education

Education

Current Facilities

Primary Elementary Middle School High SchoolCareer & Technical Private Total

Abbeville 0 5 5 3 1 1 15

Anderson 0 26 10 7 0 13 56

Cherokee 0 11 4 2 1 3 21

Greenville 2 50 18 14 4 43 131

Greenwood 0 12 5 4 0 4 25

Laurens 0 11 6 2 0 4 23

Oconee 0 11 5 4 1 4 25

Pickens 0 15 5 4 1 14 39

Spartanburg 1 40 16 10 0 13 80

Union 0 6 3 3 0 1 13

Total 3 187 77 53 8 100 428

Source: SC Department of Education

Education

 

Estimated Additional Needs Through 2025

Additional Students1

Additional Square Footage1

Additional Classrooms2

Additional Teachers3

K - 5 33,446 3,010,140 1,394 1,520

Middle School 13,859 1,663,080 577 693

High School 13,128 1,969,200 547 691

Total 60,433 6,642,420 2,518 2,904

1Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to 2025.290 ft2/K-5 Student, 120 ft2/Middle Student, 150 ft2/High (Source: Edwards, Mary. 2003. “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 324 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)41 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)

Education Comparisons

Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or 68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students)

Clemson Elementary

Education

Comparisons Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of:

15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or 22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students)

Brewer Middle School, Greenwood

Education

Comparisons Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of:

8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or 12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms)

Easley High School

Education

Additional Teachers Future growth in the

Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million1

1Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars

Education Construction Costs

Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities

Walhalla High School and Football Field1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation

Another region’s approach

We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook

We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta

Individual Problems = Societal Ills

Discrimination and Diversity Discrimination towards others Lack of understanding of other cultures

Limited Funding of Education

Unemployment Rate continues to Climb

Perspectives

Issues with acceptance of different people Especially with the changing economy and job

loss Those with disabilities Immigrants

Naïve Population People tend to ignore the issues and feel as

though the underrepresented should handle their own problems.

Knowledge

Professional Counselor is able to facilitate the needs of individuals Counselor is able to act as an advocate for certain

clients and find way to help their issue

Ethical Understanding the importance of ethical behavior Having the knowledge of ethics Role-modeling appropriate ethical decision making

Actions & Consequences

Counseling Perspective Concentrate on helping clients to find solutions

through various resources Help the client to stay motivated and helpful Increase awareness among the community

about different situations