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Powerpoint Information:Dr. Barry Nocks
Clemson UniversityCenter for Community Growth & Change
Oconee County Courthouse, Walhalla, SC
Ram Cat Alley, Seneca, SC
Mobile Home, Walhalla, SC
Development Entry, Clemson, SC
• Today:– 1.22 Million People
• 62.2% Urban
– 527,274 Housing Units• 67.3% Single Family
• 2025:– 1.56 Million People*
• 340,000 more people, or 28% growth rate
• 54.8% of growth in Greenville and Spartanburg Counties
– 659,412 Housing Units
*according to SC Budget & Control Board
Additional Needs for 2025:
6.75 million square feet (or 155 acres) 67 (100,000 s.f.)
neighborhood strip centers, or
5.5 Haywood Malls
Source: Clemson University Center for Real Estate Development
Haywood Mall Vicinity - Haywood Mall Vicinity - GreenvilleGreenville
Additional Needs for 2025 (continued)
6.1 million square feet (or 140 acres) 6 (40-story) office buildings at 1 million square feet
each, or 2x the amount of office space currently in downtown
Greenville
Downtown GreenvilleDowntown Greenville
Additional Needs
for 2025: 27.1 million square
feet (or 622 acres) 11-12 new BMW
plants Equivalent in size to
135 Wal-Mart Supercenters (averaging 200,000 sf)
BMW Manufacturing Plant – BMW Manufacturing Plant – GreerGreer
Oconee County Commerce Oconee County Commerce CenterCenter
Additional Needs for 2025:
7,111 Hotel Rooms = 71 new hotels (assuming average of 100 rooms per hotel)
Poinsett Hotel - GreenvillePoinsett Hotel - Greenville
Holiday Inn Express - AndersonHoliday Inn Express - Anderson
Economic diversification Jobs – growth in numbers and quality
Tax base – support of quality services
Cultural growth & diversityWe seek to maintain quality of life while encouraging growth
Greenville-Spartanburg is 5th most sprawling area
(Considering factors such as: miles driven, traffic delays, air pollution, proximity of homes to jobs/ schools, population density)
Sprawl Rankings
1. Riverside-San Bernardino (LA), CA
2. Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, NC
3. Raleigh-Durham, NC
4. Atlanta, GA
5. Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Growth by Decade
997,666
1,312,474
1,763,626
2,233,324
2,959,950
4,112,198
588,170702,383
840,347971,391
1,162,093
1,499,293
484,215 546,319 615,491743,284 830,563
962,441
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Decade
Po
pu
lati
on
Atlanta, GA MSA Charlotte--Gastonia--Rock Hill, NC--SC MSA Greenville--Spartanburg--Anderson, SC MSA
> 800
400 - 800
200 - 400
100 - 200
0 - 100
Virginia Study (D. Ware, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998)
*1999 population estimates by CACI International, Inc. based on 1990 US Census
Population Density Along the I-85 Corridor
# people per square mile
Development Impacts
Land Use Transportation Infrastructure Parks and Open Space Education Public Safety
Direct costs of serving new residents
Based on population projections from the SC Office of Research and Statistics
The Upstate is projected to grow by almost 30% by 2025 and by another 30% by 2050
This will have a significant impact on the transportation infrastructure in the Upstate, with unknown effect of gas supply and mass transit
Construction of new infrastructure as well as improving existing highways will be a challenge
Meeting EPA pollution standards will be a challenge with growth
Total Statewide Transportation needs through 2022 identified at $56.87 billion
Road related needs: $47.57 billion
Upstate needs at 30% of total:
$14.27 billion
Source: SCDOT Multimodal Transportation Plan, 2002
Parks & Recreation
Recreation Center- Anderson, SC
• Parks provide refuge from the chaos of daily life– Passive and active recreation– Trails, athletic facilities, play
structures, pools, sport courts, and wildlife areas
– Reduction of urban heat islands– Public gathering space– Leisure and community facilities
• With the projected increase of 338,538 people by 2025, demand for parks and recreational space is sure to increase
• Only active parks included here
Projected costs are rough estimates –
Actual costs depend on topography, amenities, site improvements, land acquisition, construction, and selected materials
Estimates are an average of construction costs for recently constructed comparable parks
Park Amenities Are Expensive!!
Example: Play Structure = $35,000Source: City of Greenville Park and Recreation Dept.
Abbeville County- $1.8 Million (18 acres)
2 Mini Parks-$213,000 (2 acres) 2 Neighborhood Parks-$602,000 (8 acres) 0.4 Community Parks-$984,000 (8 acres)
Anderson County-$17.7 Million (166 acres)
18 Mini Parks-$2.1 Million (18 acres) 15 Neighborhood Parks-$5.9 Million (74 acres) 4 Community Parks-$9.7 Million (74 acres)
Greenville County-$57.4 Million (536 acres)
60 Mini Parks-$6.8 Million (60 acres) 48 Neighborhood Parks- $19.2 Million (238 acres) 12 Community Parks-$31.4 Million (238 acres)
Pickens County- $20.9 Million (195 acres)
22 Mini Parks-$2.5 Million (22 acres) 17 Neighborhood Parks-$6.9 Million (87 acres) 4 Community Parks-$11.5 Million (87 acres)
Walhalla Soccer Field
Impacts on Selected Counties
1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation
Current Facilities
Primary ElementaryMiddle School
High School
Career & Technical Private Total
Abbeville 0 5 5 3 1 1 15
Anderson 0 26 10 7 0 13 56
Cherokee 0 11 4 2 1 3 21
Greenville 2 50 18 14 4 43 131
Greenwood 0 12 5 4 0 4 25
Laurens 0 11 6 2 0 4 23
Oconee 0 11 5 4 1 4 25
Pickens 0 15 5 4 1 14 39
Spartanburg 1 40 16 10 0 13 80
Union 0 6 3 3 0 1 13
Total 3 187 77 53 8 100 428Source: SC Department of Education
Estimated Additional Needs Through 2025
Additional Students1
Additional Square Footage1
Additional Classrooms2
Additional Teachers3
K - 5 33,446 3,010,140 1,394 1,520
Middle School 13,859 1,663,080 577 693
High School 13,128 1,969,200 547 691
Total 60,433 6,642,420 2,518 2,904
1Assumes that the current distribution of population across age groups will remain consistent to 2025.290 ft2/K-5 Student, 120 ft2/Middle Student, 150 ft2/High (Source: Edwards, Mary. 2003. “Community Guide to Development Impact Analysis.” University of Wisconsin) 324 students/K-5 Classroom, 25/Middle, 26/High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)41 teacher/22 K-5 students, 1/20 Middle, 1/19 High (Source: Burchell and Listokin. 1994. “Development Impact Assessment Handbook.”)
Comparisons
Additional Elementary School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 30 additional Clemson Elementary Schools (46 classrooms), or 68 additional Walhalla Elementary Schools (approx. 500 students)
Clemson Elementary
Comparisons
Additional Middle School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 15 Additional Greer Middle Schools (921 students), or 22 Additional Brewer Middle Schools (618 students)
Brewer Middle School, Greenwood
Comparisons
Additional High School requirements equivalent to the construction of: 8 Additional Easley High Schools (68 classrooms); or 12 Additional Greenville High Schools (46 classrooms)
Easley High School
Additional Teachers
Future growth in the Upstate by 2025 is estimated to generate a need for nearly 3,000 additional teachers at estimated additional annual salary costs of nearly $199 million1
1Costs adjusted to 2025 dollars
Construction Costs
Future growth in the Upstate is estimated to generate a need for $735– $919 Million1 in new or expanded facilities construction by 2025, not including replacements to existing facilities
Walhalla High School and Football Field1Costs adjusted 3% annually for inflation
We can learn from other experiences, particularly from areas that are similar in scale and political outlook
We do have choices—not to act is an invitation to continued movement to Charlotte and Atlanta