Urban Energy Systems: Challenges & OpportunitiesArnulf GrublerIIASA and Yale University

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 2

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesGEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 3

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

ns 10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Population by Settlement Type/Size

1330

3403192

??

Mill

ions 10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Number ofagglomerationsin 2005

growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 4

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesGEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 5

Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energyred= above national average, blue = below national average

n=132

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 6

Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energyred= above national average, blue = below national average

n=68

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 7

Direct and Embodied Urban Energy

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Tokyo (90) Tokyo (95) Beijing (92) Beijing (97) Shanghai(92)

Shanghai(97)

Ener

gy U

se (E

J)

Embodied

Direct

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 8

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesGEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 9

China - Air Pollution (SO2) Exposure

East China (2000)Tg SO2 xmillion people

BeijingShanghai

Hong Kong 3.43.3 1.9

2.11.4

1.8

1.7

0.6

0.3

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 10

Urban Energy and Exergy EfficiencyEnergy and Exergy Flows Vienna 2007

Source: Wien Energie, 2009; (rough) exergy efficiencies based on Gilli et al., 1996.

Industry

Services

Final Exergy: 136 PJ 83%

Useful Exergy: 28 PJ 17%

. Electricity Motor fuels

Heat, Liquids

Households Traffic

L.T. heat Processheat

Light, motion

Secondary Exergy: 163 PJ 100%Secondary Energy: 43 TWh 100%

Final Energy: 37 TWh 85%

Useful Energy: 21 TWh 50%

district heat

Losses

solids

Gas

Vienna 2007

Useful exergy as % of secondary primaryGeneva (CH) 23.2 15.5Vienna (A) 17.2Malmo (S) 21.2 12.7London (UK) 11.3 6.2

trad. Mexican village 5.7

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 11

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesGEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 12

Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG

1. Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers)

2. Income (consumption)3. Efficiency of energy end-use

(buildings, processes,vehicles, appliances)

4. Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix)

5. Fuel substitution (imports)6. Energy systems integration

(co-generation, heat-cascading)7. Urban renewables

Decreasing orderof importance

Increasing level ofurban policy leverage

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 13

SynCity Urban Policy Leverages

814 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Medium tohigh density

www.globalenergyassessment.org© GEA 2012 14

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main MessagesGEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems

Lead Authors:Xuemei Bai, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler (CLA),Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead, Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite,Niels B. Schulz, Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz

Contributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*, Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers,Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)

Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base

A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)

GEA Chapter 18 Urban Energy Systems