urban trees: the canary in the coalmine? potential impacts of … · 2017-10-03 · 1/16/2014 14...
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TREE SELECTION IN ACHANGING CLIMATE
Bert Cregg, Ph.D.Michigan State UniversityDepartment of HorticultureDepartment of Forestry
Program Outline
Midwest climate: Trends and Predictions Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine? Potential impacts of climate change on urban
trees Tree selection strategies for dealing with
climate change Tying it all together
Midwest climate:Trends and Predictions
Industrial revolution
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Since the mid-1800’s CO2 concentration hasincreased from 280 ppm to ~395 ppm Predicted to reach 700 ppm by 2050
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Recent changes in MinnesotaClimate warm winters, during which higher
temperatures have been both persistent andsubstantial; higher minimum temperatures; increased episodes of high summer dew
points; greater annual precipitation, most profoundly
in seasonal snowfall and thunderstormrainfall.
Seeley, Mark W. Minnesota Weather Almanac
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual minimum Temp MSP
Zone 4b
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Minimum temperatures are warming faster thanaverage temperatures
Krakauer, 2012
Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine?
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Atmospheric water Vapor pressure deficit:at 30% RH VPD doubles for each 20oF(11oC) increase in temperature
0
2
4
6
8
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12
55/13 75/24 95/35 115/46
temperature (F/C)
vapo
r pr
essu
re (
kPa)
VP deficitActual VP
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tem
pera
ture
(o C)
0
30
40
50
12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am0
2
4
6
8
10
12
vapo
r pre
ssur
e de
ficit
(kPa
)downtownEast campusLincoln WSO
Cregg and DixFig. 3
Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17
108oF
117oF
126oF
Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17
Respirationincreasesexponentially withtemperature
Source: Bolstad et al. 1999.Tree Phys. 19:871-878.
The great March warm-up of 2012
2012 Daily high temperatures vs. 25-year average high
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20
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40
50
60
70
80
90
1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 8-Apr 22-Apr
2012
25 yr avg
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March 19, 2012
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What goes up…
April 2012 Daily low temperatures
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr
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Was 2012 an aberration or sign ofthings to come?
Impacts of climate change on phenology
Source: Badeck et al. 2004. New Phyologist. 162:295-309 Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025.
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Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025.
Strategies for dealing with climatechange
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Organisms have three principlemeans to respond to a change intheir environment Migration Adaptation Acclimation
Assisted colonization
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BC Forest Service AssistedMigration Adaptation Trial
Provenance tests as surrogatesfor climate change
Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817
Moving seed sources northwardoften results in increased growth
Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817
Northern seed sources break bud early andmay be subject to late frosts
Johnsen et al. 1996. Tree Phys. 16:375-380
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Physiological acclimation MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study
MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study
Species varyin theirability toacclimate toincreasedgrowthtemperature
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Out-planting this spring with Greening ofDetroit
Tying it all together
Midwest climate is getting warmer –especially winter temperatures Trees in urban and community forests are
already ‘living on the edge’ Changes in phenological patterns and
drought stress are likely to be first impacts
Tying it all together(cont.) Moving species and seed sources northward Diversity remains the most viable risk
management tool
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Selecting a diversified portfolio Abundance of major tree genera in six Midwest cities:1980 vs. 2005
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5
10
15
20
25
30
Acer
Picea
Thuja
Fraxinus
Quercu
sPinu
s
Prunus
Jugla
ns
Cercis
Morus
abun
danc
e (%
) 1980 2005
Source: Wade 2010
Are we making progress?
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Pacific sunset mapleAcer truncatum x A. platanoides‘Warrenred’
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
Espresso Kentucky coffeetreeGymnocladus dioicus “Espresso-JFS”
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
State street mapleAcer miyabei ‘Morton’
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
Scarlet oakQuercus coccinea
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
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Crimson spire oakQuercus robur x Q. alba ‘Crimschmidt’
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
Bur oakQuercus macrocarpa
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
Red oakQuercus rubra
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
GinkgoGinkgo biloba
Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page
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Thanks for your attention!