urbanisation - a threat to civil order and economics

8/14/2019 Urbanisation - A Threat to Civil Order and Economics

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Urbanisation: A threat to Civil Order and Economies

Urbanisation:

1. The process of the formation and growth of cities,

2. The change in a country or region when its populationmigrates from rural to urban areas,

3. The proportion of a region's population that live in towns and cities; the rate at which this

proportion is growing.

There are various predictions about the percentage of the worlds population that will permanentlyreside in urban and sub-urban areas by 2030 and these predictions range from 60% (United Nations)to 50% by French economist Philippe Bocquier. Without doubt there is a growing movement of ruralbased populations moving to urban areas and this gives growing concern to governments and

development organisations alike. Examination of partially completed CIA documentation shows that in2008 the average percentage of urbanisation was near to 58% (range 17% Ethiopia to 92% Argentina)and in line with the United Nations predictions, although their prediction was for 2030 and the CIA was

for 2008. It is clear that the global recession of the 1 st and 2nd decades of the new millennia willdramatically increase the likelihood of greater urbanisation of mainly economic migrants. Increased

urbanisation will also put very serious stress on social services, sanitation, clean water provision andemployment in host communities and the affect of these must not be underestimated.

Local economics and the lack of resources is the usual reason why many migrate from the rural areas,either to seek employment and/or to seek better education and health support systems. The presentlevels of urbanisation are of great concern to civil authorities in that the ability to respond to thismigration is very limited and that the level of urban migrants far exceeds the service provision in water,

sanitation, education, health, infrastructure and land resources.

The map above shows the extent of global urbanisation and where in most continents the urbanisation

is centred and although this neither emphasises the density ratios and land resources, it can be foundthat even those countries with vast land resources find that the majority of their population is

urbanised. The increasing trend of urbanisation as depicted in CIA documentation highlights areas

where there is an increase in the annual percentage migrating to the urban areas with Europe

reasonably stable and many parts of Africa and Southeast Asia showing marked increases.
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Consequences:

The consequences of uncontrolled urban migration must be of concern to central and local

governments as the existing quality of life can only be degraded by these increases and in many urban

areas, the quality of life is already very low. The threat to services is of paramount concern with the

following services put under increasing strain.

- Potable water

- Sanitation

- Health services

- Education services

- Safety regulations

- Civil order

- Infrastructure

- Urban planning

As the above list indicates, the services provided are crucial to maintaining and improving lifestyles in

the urban areas and the present rate of urban migration would indicate that few, if any local or central

governments would be able to respond to the increased demand, given that in many countries, these

services are already at critical level and apt to fail completely.

The increase in urban residents also puts considerable strain on the number of unemployed and thusthe ability to create income for family sustainability and this, in turn, creates situations where families

and in some case, whole communities, are impoverished, hungry and volatile. Hungry and volatile

communities are a threat to civil order and as has been seen in some countries, violence has broken

out, although not always due to internal migrants, but have been directly associated with external

migrants from areas of stress or conflict.

A recent (2006) United Nations document showed that 68% of all countries (developed and

developing) had access to clean water and that 37% had improved sanitation and there have been

increasing concerns about the decline in available clean water sources and this can only add stress to

an already dire situation. It has been estimated that up to 3 billion people have very limited or no

access to potable water resources and map A gives a good indication of where the main resources are

and perhaps, why fewer people every year have reduced access. With rice being one of the major

staple foods, restricted agricultural access to water is critical.


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The two world maps shown above, depict A the areas of the world with water retention capabilities

and B the distribution of wetlands throughout the world and these show that the ability of the soil to

retain sufficient water is in crisis and that alternative means of water provision will need to be

considered. Care should be given to excavating deeper to find water as, as has been found in

Bangladesh, heavy metal pollution of water caused severe problems in the communities where these

were excavated. It is also likely that the existing urban areas will have few or finite water resources,

other than coastal areas where the desalination of seawater can be considered.

Where it is possible to determine the human occupation there is more likelihood that comparisons can

be made to ascertain areas where urban communities could be better tolerated.

Urbanisation does not only affect the urban communities as the ability to provide potable water and

food is critical to the survival and probable expansion of the urban areas, as shortages of these

important items inevitably leads to social stress and civil disorders.

There are varying opinions of food productions ability to maintain an increasing annual global

population rate of 1.18% (range -0.85% to +3.69%) estimated for 2009 (CIA documentation) and in

general, the opinions tend to be pessimistic and as has already been seen; in some developing

countries food riots have caused fatalities and in some developed countries restrictions made on bulk

purchases of dry foods.With the global recession expected to last for a number of years, with a longer lasting effect on

developing countries and a general downturn in manufacturing, the effect on the urban communities

will ensure that these remain filled with the low income and impoverished families, only to decline

further, as the ripple effect or the recession increases.

With less employment, higher priced food, less access to clean water, higher cost health services,

inability to afford school costs and a reduction on expenditure in social services and infrastructure

maintenance, there can be little doubt that these communities are a severe threat to civil disorder and

that governments may have to take severe responses in order to control threat situations.

A

B


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Maps C (1994) and D (2000) show the areas of human population and the hotspots under stress,

with map E showing the impact of humans on the world. These two maps highlight the areas where

the migrants are more likely to depart from, with internal migration paramount at first, followed later

by external migration. Map C also highlights areas (green and grey) where population density is low

and where, given a opportunity to promote sustainability, migrants may find a future.

(NOTE: Maps A, B, C, D, E, F and G are copied from the United States Department of Agriculture Natural

Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Division World Soil Resources)

C


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Map E shows the impact of humans to be greatest in Asian and Chinese continents with some stress

showing within the wider European continent, highlighted in maps C and D. On a direct comparison

with map A and B, this shows that the areas of highest human population are also areas where water

resources are limited. Where there are finite resources of water there is also stress to food production

systems, making dependence on the importation of food and a consequential stress on local

economies, especially in areas with a low manufacturing capability.

D

E


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From the foregoing maps it is clear that some areas are or will come under great environmental stress

and the following USDA map highlights some of these areas.

Many of the areas highlighted in Major Land Resource Stresses map the central area of Africa, the

northern part of South America, Europe and large areas with the United States of America are mainfood production areas and should be subject to research that would answer some of the questions

raised regarding the sustainability of these areas.

All of the foregoing USDA maps show the situations during the last few years and although they may

include some forward thinking, they do not take into account the added global stress that will be

caused by the global climate change, especially with raised temperatures and seawater levels.

Water for drinking and agricultural production will be a defining factor of those areas that are more

likely to survive the long term effects of climate change and given the benefit of water resources

mapping, it is possible to determine where migrants may head towards. Without doubt, the increase in

migration will also affect governments and political attitudes and it must be up to the United Nations

collective to format an acceptable agreement with individual governments to allow increases in migrant

numbers. Water for agriculture is a topic for research, inasmuch that more drought tolerant varieties

will need to be developed, especially in the staple food sector, as will soil management techniques need

to be improved throughout the majority of the developing countries. Water from the sea is an option

for coastal communities but is not an option for landlocked areas. Deep boreholes are apt to produce

poisoned water, although it is possible that science may assist in developing methods of cleaning up

the water for use.

Within the next two decades, governments will have to decide whether or not they are going to provide

large funds for developing sustainable food sources, or, on the other hand will have to decide whether

or not they are prepared to allow food resources for their own to be sustained and leave the rest to theworld to the law of the jungle; with the humanitarian consequences involved. Developing nations only

have the power of their mineral resources to bargain with and it is expected that wholesale

nationalisation of these will ensue, in order to maintain a bargaining stance.

F

G


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Maps H (2005) shows the soil types of the world and from this it is possible to determine areas where

agriculture could be developed and I shows the areas where the worlds most undernourished reside.

All of the maps, when put together, show the perilous state of the worlds basic resources and that it is

now probably beyond the world authorities to be able to address and change the situation and all of

this in the light of the latest developments in climate change forecasts.The majority of data resources for human population growth rates show that by 2043 or 2044 there

will be 10 billion people from 6.8 billion in 2010, an increase in 32% and which, is not sustainable even

with improved basic resource provision measures being put in place immediately. This again, inevitably

H

I


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leads to the conclusion that the law of the jungle; survival of the ablest, will be promoted, albeit being

unannounced.

Map D shows the areas of the world under stress and this includes a greater part of the European

continent and this raises questions about allowing the ablest to survive; being as this area is

developed as opposed to other major areas that are developing or underdeveloped. The European

continent also has the advantage of an economic community government system that represents a

majority of the individual countries and is bound by moral judgement to assist its members in avoiding

the worst effects of recessions, climate changes and food shortages; whether or not these may be at

the cost of developing nations.

Africa:

Using the established United Nations and CIA population expansion rates and averaging these; in

Africa in 2009 there will be 1.01 billion people and in 2044 there will be 2.2 billion, an increase of

1.19 billion (or 117.81%). (2044 is the year in which the world population will reach 10 billion ) By

2044 clean water or food security in Africa cannot be achieved and the income from the mineral

resources will not be sufficient to allow rapid development of food security; even if these assets are

nationalised and exploited and the idea that the Chinese, Indians and others will allow their much

sought after investments to be returned; either by law or compensation. If it is possible to reduce the

individual population expansion rates by 10%, by 2044 there will be 2.033 billion people in Africa, an

increase of 1.02 billion (or 101.17%). If the individual population expansion rates could be reducedby 10% it is very unlikely that much of a difference would be noted in the risk to the provision of

basic food and water resources.

Out of 33 African countries that have published their unemployment figures (2008), the rates range

from Morocco at 2.1% to Zimbabwe at 85.0%, with an average of 28.9% and these are figures from

before the global recession and it is probable that these figures are more likely to be in the region of

40% and increasing.

Conflict:

When the missionaries came to Africa they had the Bible and we had the land. They said,

Let us pray. We closed our eyes. When we opened them we had the Bible and they had the

land.Bishop Desmond Tutu

In some way, the statement (above) made by Desmond Tutu encompasses what is wrong in Africa and

has been at the root cause of many of the conflicts for many years. Where tribal conflict has been

seen, this has often occurred due to the long ago invasion by colonialists who divided up traditional

tribal lands, creating the inevitable tension that has followed and stayed.

The map (left) shows the present day areas where some form

of armed conflict is ongoing, be it by governments or insurgent

and/or tribal groups.

The West has not been unable to

successfully intervene nor has the AfricanUnion (AU) and in the case of the African

Union, tribalism has a lot to do with their

failures. Of the African continent only

one country (Morocco) is not a member, although a few

are suspended.

With the current global recession, conflict situations can only

increase and with the at arms length involvement of the West

and the inability of the African Union to take a leading role can

only disappoint those that wish to see peace in the continent.

The weakness of the African Union only exacerbates the conflict

situation and this weakness must be addressed.

With conflict comes greater urbanisation where community members flee to the relative safe areas in

the urban and sub-urban areas and in turn, create local conflict over employment opportunity and

resource sharing. That these communities now contain the original inhabitants, conflict and economic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_the_African_Union.svg


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migrants is of great concern as the entailed poverty of the majority is a breeding ground for terrorism.

Both internal and external migration puts greater pressure on urban areas and local governments have

given up the work of provisioning the basic services.

The situation in Zimbabwe has its own roots, again based on colonialism,

but considerably inflated by a dictatorial government based on tribalism.

The map (right) shows the

African colonised situation

during the late 1800s with

swathes of land dominated by

the English and French

nations, with only Ethiopia

having retained its sovereignty throughout. Today, the

once held Belgium colony of The Democratic Republic of

Congo remains a nation of violence and inter-tribal

conflict, with the United Nations, nor any other body,

being unable to bring any modicum of peace and as long

as the vast mineral wealth of this area is being exploited

by the tribal interests, nothing will be resolved.

Mineral wealth is at the root of many of the internalconflicts in Africa and with cash rich international nations

vying for the spoils in Africa, these conflicts will continue

and both urban and rural communities will suffer the

consequences. Africa has abundant mineral resources and

still discovers more each year, whilst the West has few and yet the African nations seem powerless to

regain control of their own mineral assets.

(http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-resources-and-political-instabilityPhilippe Rekacewicz,Le Monde Diplomatique)

The map (above) gives a guide to the much sought after mineral resources of the African continent,

together with some of the conflict areas and shows the richness of these resources and the vast area

over which they are to be found. That few Africans benefit, other than as a cheap labour resource, is

because of the financial power of the conglomerates in their ability to bully the African governments

into giving very low tax rates, subsidised power and the ability to ignore labour laws. That these

conglomerates have small development projects does little to balance the vast profits that they take

out of the countries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_African_Union_Corrected.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_African_Union_Corrected.svghttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-rehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_African_Union_Corrected.svghttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-rehttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-rehttp://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-re


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The Populations:

Using the information from the United Nations and the CIA World Fact Book regarding the world

population shows some interesting facts about the ratio of male to female structure and a comparison

between the world, Europe and Africa shows a marked contrast in the male to female ratio, with

Europe having a larger percentage of females.

Male to Female population structure:

2009 (est.) Percentage Male Percentage Female

World 50.24% 49.76%

Europe 48.96% 51.04%

Africa 50.04% 49.96%

Male to Female population age range structure:

2009 (est.) Male Female

0 to 14 15 to 64 65 + 0 to 14 15 to 64 65 +

World 13.90% 32.94% 3.36% 13.18% 32.30% 4.28%

Europe 8.00% 33.85% 7.11% 7.57% 33.44% 10.03%

Africa 20.43% 28.13% 1.48% 20.00% 28.09% 1.88%

Using the same CIA fact book, highlights the male to female ratio relative to age ranges and these

show that Europe has a particular problem regarding those over the age of 65 years and that, it is the

middle range (15 to 64) that is expected to support the social needs of the over 65s, putting severe

pressure on government budgets, especially in a recession when revenues are lower. In Europe, the

CIA World Fact Book shows that 17.3% of the population is over the age of 65 years in comparison to aworld average of 7.6%. Of greatest concern to governments must be the level of health service

provision required for the over 65s and the possible intrusion into budgets for education and other

services.

No nation can continue to support an increasingly older population from existing resources

without other (and equally important) social services suffering:

The following table shows the average ratio of males to females and highlights the large disparity of

males to females in the 65 + age range, with many more females living a longer life and the

comparison between Africa and World show the difference in this age range is universal.

2009 (est.) At Birth .- 15 years 15 - 64 65 + T Pop.

Africa 103/100 102/100 98/100 77/100 99/100World 105/100 104/100 100/100 78/100 99/100

(Note: the statistics for World are minus 6 Arabian countries due to figures distorted by the populations being

enlarged by migrant workers statistics from CIA World Fact Book)

The averaged male/female ratios show many variations, such as those for Russia (below) as an

example.

2009 (est.) At Birth 0 -15 15 -64 65 + T. Pop

Russia 106/100 105/100 92/100 44/100 86/100

Analysing the overall population statistics shows (table below) the significant differences in the

percentages of numbers in the age ranges. This again highlights European governments as having to

provide a higher percentage economic support social services for the over 65s. However, in much of

Asia and Africa there are little or no social support services for the over 65s and this may highlight the

earlier death rates. The table also shows that in the range 15 to 64 age range Europe has a high

percentage in this range and thus more likely to be in employment and paying the taxes used to

provide social services.


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% of Population

0-14 15-64 65 +World 28.97% 63.55% 7.49%Europe 16.31% 67.77% 15.92%Africa 40.76% 54.91% 4.32%

With an increased demand for governments to provide social services and resources, comes the needto create employment in order to increase the number of taxpayers and during economic recession

these opportunities are reduced. The lower percentage of the 15 to 65 range in Africa also affects the

ability of governments to improve infrastructures, including urban planning and implementation. Thus,

we have (on average) 63.5% of the population dependent on employment opportunity in order to

support 36.5% and of the 63.5%, 13.2% are unemployed.

If agricultural production is to be increased, decisions will have to be made as to where it is possible to

undertake the vast schemes on large tracts of land to be able to meet the needs. The changes in global

climate may allow sub-tropical agriculture to move north, leaving half of the southern hemisphere able

to grow drought resistant crops only and relying on Canada and Russia to grow the wheat and many of

the temperate crops.


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The additional burden of global climate change:

Although the changes in global climate will not have a dramatic effect by 2040, the small changes that

will occur, will affect the daily lifestyles of many of the impoverished in that there will be less staple

foods available and that groundwater sources will be less and this may exacerbate migration to the

urban areas. Some governments have put restrictions on the export of rice which 3 billion of the

present day 6.8 billion depend on as their staple food. Rice is particularly prone to changes in climate,

given that day and night time temperature rises reduce yield and as many rice production areas are in

the low delta areas, saltwater percolation will also cause longer term problems as the sea level rises.

As maps A and B show, the land for agricultural production is finite and without further land

clearance the amount of foods produced will not match the population expansion and the worlds

wetlands will also decline or become affected by salination. However, it is clear that there are areas of

the globe where agricultural production could be extended and improved and it is also clear that

conserving the unspoilt environment is at risk from the demand of greater food production.

Conclusions:

There can be few doubts that the developed nations can or will be able to undertake the rescue of the

developing nations to combat poverty, mineral exploitation, urbanisation or in the provision of the basicnecessities of life and that, as a consequence, the developing nations will inevitably be left to fend for

themselves. Survival of the ablest will be the hidden agenda of the United Nations and other world

bodies and that, those with the most cash resources will dominate the international scene for many

decades to come. That millions are likely to die of starvation will be seen as a consequence of the

previous lethargic state of the world leaders and greed of the developed nations and conglomerates to

exploit the mineral resources of developing nations.

Put simply; no nation or organisation has the physical or political resources to be able to

implement a package of the size required and in time to have any sustainable effect on

urbanisation:

Of the major populated countries with a total population of 5.526 billion in 2009, 2.71 billion (50.9%)

will live in urban areas. By 2044 when the total world population is expected to reach 10 billion, of

these, 5.882 billion will be urbanised, based on the urban growth rates provided in the CIA World

Fact Book. Therefore, in 35 years from 2009 the urban areas will be expected to absorb a further

3.313 billion people and it is probable that this number will be surpassed, due to increasing poverty,


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conflict and climate changes.

With world economies suffering recession and also the mineral assets in reduced demand, revenues

and employment opportunity will decline and with these, development projects will be put back for

many years, assuming that economies recover sufficiently to be able to restart investment in urban

services and infrastructures.

That more of the poor rural communities will become abandoned is inevitable, despite the need to grow

more food and yet, there is a slight movement by the richer to move out of the urban areas. The

poorest will converge on the nearest urban areas to industrial centres seeking employment where noneexists and these will add to the growing shantytowns, where social services will collapse.

In 2008 a rise in food riots was seen and these will increase and be, in the first instance, directed

towards the urban migrants and secondly towards the governments. There are few examples of riots

over potable water and as more people are short of water rather than food, this seems strange,

although some of the previous riots may have included safe water sources.

However the statistics are presented and the varying ways in which they will be interpreted, there can

be no doubt that there are severe consequences for failing to address many of the poverty and

urbanisation problems during the 1900s and although a survival of the ablest silent manifesto will be

denied, no nation or international organisation has the ability to respond, either politically or financially

to the needs.

If, as is stated, the population of the world reaches 10 billion during 2043/2044, there will not besufficient food produced to be able to feed a sustainable diet to 10 billion people and the intervening

period of 35 years is also insufficient time in which to improve agricultural output to meet the needs.

Of the global population it is the urban communities that will suffer from the consequences of these

shortages and from this, the fear is that civil unrest will grow and may grow beyond the power of the

authorities to deal with it and maintain peace.

Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the seasonal opportunity for employment

which urban dwellers depend on. During certain seasons, work and thus income generation,

employment opportunity goes down in the agricultural, construction and fishing industries and creates

further stress within the urban areas. A research project within the Philippines showed the

consequences of the seasonal work opportunity over one year with only four months of full

employment opportunity, when the weather was suitable for all industries to permit full employment.

With a majority of a population dwelling in urban and sub-urban areas and dependent on seasonal

employment, the loss of employment opportunity becomes greater as more migrate to the urban

areas; creating areas of positive and probably permanent stress levels, for which governments have no

answer.

The trend of urbanisation has worrying consequences for government authorities with breakdowns of

civil order, over which some elements the authorities have little control, as much of these elements are

in the hands of the private sector.

Core Studies April 2009

References:

: CIA World Fact Book

: United Nations

: United States of America Department of Agriculture

: Philippe Rekacewicz, (Le Monde Diplomatique)

: Anatomy of a Province, Walker 2005

Anatomy of a Province: Walker 2005


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urbanisation - a threat to civil order and economics

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