us 2016 holiday homestretch: performance to date bodes well for holiday
TRANSCRIPT
US 2016 HOLIDAY
HOMESTRETCH: Performance
to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
1
Shoshana PollackSenior Research Associate FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGYDECEMBER 15, 2016
Agenda
2
11. Sales by Region: Thanksgiving Day Through Cyber Monday
12. With the Bulk of Major Shopping Days Still Ahead, Expect a Last-Minute Rush of Holiday Shoppers
13. Post–Black Friday Drop-Off in Traffic Seen in Last Few Weeks Is Normal
14. Online Traffic Remained Strong in Early December Despite Expected Post–Black Friday Drop-Off
15. Holiday Promotions Generally Consistent with Last Year, Not as Deep as Black Friday’s
16. Retailers Should Take a Holistic View of Consumers to Be Successful
17. Holiday Themes: Fashion Trends
18. Positive Holiday Calendar
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop
1. Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
2. Holiday Shopping Season Lengthened
3. Some Retailers Shut their Doors on Thanksgiving
4. Thanksgiving/Black Friday Store Traffic Declined Modestly, but Showed Improvement over Recent Years
5. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record, Mobile Drove Growth
6. Comments from Retailers on Black Friday Results
7. Cyber Monday Set Online Sales Record
8. Amazon Won Cyber Weekend Again
9. Thanksgiving Weekend: E-Commerce’s Share of Holiday Spending Increased
10. Cyber Monday Becomes Cyber Week
1. Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
Based on data for holiday sales, we are optimistic about our 3%–4% growth forecast:
• Thanksgiving and Black Friday generated sales of $5.27 billion in online sales, up 17.1% year over year, according to Adobe
• Black Friday set a new record of $3.34 billion in online sales, surpassing $3 billion for the first time and up 21% year over year, according to Adobe
• Cyber Monday sales totaled $3.45 billion in online sales, up 12.1% from last year, according to Adobe
• Other positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, favorable calendar and a favorable weather forecast, as well as number of hot products
3
Online Retail Sales for the US Holiday Season(USD Bil.)
*Cyber Monday 2016 is a forecastSource: Atlas/Adobe
2013 2014 2015 2016
Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday*
1.1
1.92.3
1.3
2.42.7
1.7
2.73.1
1.9
3.3 3.4
$529
$554$569
$585
$608
$626
$645–$651
5.2%%
4.6%
2.7% 2.7%
4.1%
3.2%3%–4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Gro
wth
Rate
Ho
liday
Ret
ail S
ales
(U
SD B
il.)
Holiday Retail Sales Growth Rate
Source: National Retail Federation (NRF)/Fung Global Retail & Technology
4
1. Holiday Homestretch: Optimistic About Holiday Sales Forecast of 3%–4% Growth
2. Holiday Shopping Season LengthenedShoppers are spreading out their spending, and retailers got a head start on offering Black Friday deals this year
Retailers promoted holiday deals earlier and
at a greater extent than last year
• Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy and Target rolled
out early-bird online specials on November 1
• Retailers expanded their mobile messaging two
weeks before Thanksgiving
The days leading up to Thanksgiving captured
more holiday sales than last year
• Wednesday before Thanksgiving: Sales
increased by 10.4% year over year, according to
First Data
• E-commerce traffic was up 15% the weekend
before Thanksgiving, according to Verizon
2016 Sales Growth: Days Preceding Thanksgiving
Source: First Data
12%
7%8%
10%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Sunday,11/20
Monday,11/21
Tuesday,11/22
Wednesday,11/23
3. Some Retailers Shut their Doors on Thanksgiving
6
-11%
-11%
-10%
-7%
-8%
-10%
-10%
-11%
-16%
-15%
-10%
-9%
-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%
22:00
20:00
18:00
16:00
14:00
12:00
10:00
8:00
6:00
4:00
2:00
0:00
7.5%
6.4%
5.5%
-2.5%
1.6%
2.2%
0.8%
-6.7%
-14.5%
-30.7%
-30.0%
-2.4%
-55% -35% -15% 5% 25% 45%
22:00
20:00
18:00
16:00
14:00
12:00
10:00
8:00
6:00
4:00
2:00
0:00Many retailers either did not open on Thanksgiving or opened much laterthan in 2015
This drove huge declines in traffic
Many merchants that did open waited until 6:00 p.m. to do so; by then, consumers were ready to shop
Percent Change in Number of Merchants Open on Thanksgiving Day 2016 vs. 2015
Percent Change in Brick-and-Mortar Transactions on Thanksgiving Day 2016 vs. Last Thanksgiving
On Thanksgiving Day, there were approximately 10% fewer merchants open than last year, which reduced traffic. In-store traffic was down Thanksgiving evening, according to ShopperTrak.
Source: First Data
4. Thanksgiving/Black Friday Store Traffic Declined Modestly but Showed Improvement over Recent Years
• In-store traffic declined modestly, but was higher than in past years
• Thanksgiving/Black Friday traffic was down 1% year over year, according to ShopperTrak
• Thanksgiving/Black Friday traffic was down 4.4% year over year, according to RetailNext
7
Source: RetailNext
-16.0%
-12.0%
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016
Store Traffic In-store Sales
Improving Traffic Trend
5. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record, Mobile Drove Growth
Black Friday online sales were up 21.6%
year over year, to $3.34 billion
• The total exceeded Adobe’s projection of
$3.05 billion
• Shoppers saw twice as many price drops on
Black Friday as on Cyber Monday
Mobile sales revenue was $1.2 billion, up
33% from last year
• Mobile drove retail website visits: 56% of
visits came from mobile
• Desktop purchases represented the majority
of US online sales, accounting for 64% of
revenue
US: Online Retail Sales on Black Friday (USD Bil.)
$1.9
$2.4$2.7
$3.3
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
2013 2014 2015 2016
Black Friday sales inched closer to Cyber Monday’s totals
Source: Altas/Adobe
6. Comments from Retailers on Black Friday Results
Thanksgiving Day has become one of the busiest mobile shopping days for Amazon. US mobile orders on Thanksgiving Day 2016 exceeded those of Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday combined in 2015. Amazon said it is on pace to surpass the number of items sold last year and that Alexa devices are among its best-sellers.
JCPenney said the appliance category was strong and that it had a good start to Black Friday, with record mobile traffic and sales.
Kohl’s set a record for online sales on Thanksgiving. The retailer made many Black Friday deals available online before its stores opened.
Macy’s reported strong traffic at its Herald Square flagship location in New York City and said that more than 16,000 people were waiting outside before the store opened.
Target reported that Black Friday was Target.com’s biggest day ever and that it saw double-digit online growth that day. In-store traffic was strong as well.
Thanksgiving Day was once again one of Walmart’s top online shopping days of the year. Mobile drove more than 70% of online Black Friday traffic for the retailer.
7. Cyber Monday Set Online Sales RecordCyber Monday was the biggest day in the history of US e-commerce; the record sales were driven by mobile shopping and major promotions
Cyber Monday sales increased by 12.1% year
over year, to $3.45 billion, according to Adobe
• Average order volume was up 5% versus last
year, according to Dynamic Action
Mobile shopping revenue reached $1.07
billion, up 34% from last year, according to
Adobe
• In contrast to Black Friday and Thanksgiving,
desktop traffic accounted for more than half of
shopper visits on Cyber Monday
Mobile Shopping Sales (USD Mil.) 2016 2015
YoY % Change
Thanksgiving Day $449 $184 59%
Black Friday $1,200 $900 33%
Cyber Monday $1,070 $706 34%
Source: Altas/Adobe
8. Amazon Won Cyber Weekend Again
Amazon accounted for 30.9% of total
online revenue from Black Friday
through Cyber Monday
According to Slice Intelligence,
emerging e-commerce players gained
steam on Cyber Monday:
• Jet.com: 190% YoY growth in
online traffic
• Wish: 101% YoY growth in
online traffic
• Wayfair: 80% YoY growth in
online traffic
Selected Retailers’ Share of Online Revenue During Cyber Weekend
Amazon once again ranked as the most-visited online retailer on Cyber Monday
1.2%
1.5%
2.5%
2.7%
3.2%
4.1%
4.4%
7.4%
30.9%
1.1%
0.9%
2.7%
2.3%
3.4%
5.1%
4.3%
6.1%
31.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Home Depot
Apple
Nordstrom
Kohl's
Macy's
Walmart
Target
Best Buy
Amazon
2015 2016
Source: Slice Intelligence
9. Thanksgiving Weekend: E-Commerce’s Share of Holiday Spending Increased
Online Share of Holiday Spending, Thanksgiving–Black Friday Weekend
87.2% 85.5% 81.0%
12.8% 14.5% 19.0%
2014 2015 2016
E-Comm Brick & Mortar
E-commerce’s share of holiday spending was up over Thanksgiving weekend, representing 19% of total retail sales compared with 14.5% last year, according to First Data.
• Shoppers spent $5.27 billion online on Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving weekend, up 17.7% from the two-day period last year, according to Adobe. Over the Thanksgiving Day–Cyber Monday period, shoppers spent $12.91 billion online, up 15.2%, Adobe estimates.
• Shopper visits to brick-and-mortar stores declined by an estimated 1% over the two-day Thanksgiving–Black Friday period, according to ShopperTrak. Black Friday shopper visits were flat versus last year, and Thanksgiving evening visits were down versus last year.
Source: First Data
10. Cyber Monday Becomes Cyber Week
Cyber Monday Becomes Cyber Week
• About 47% of Cyber Monday deals were extended
throughout the week (DealNews.com)
• Example: December 5 brought in $1.94 billion in online
revenue this year, up 9% from 2015 (Adobe)
• Online deals were extended throughout November and
December
Amazon, Walmart, Macy’s and Target all offered Cyber
Week deals
• Amazon began 12 days of deal promotions on December 7
• For the first time ever, Walmart kicked off its Cyber
Monday deals at 12:01 a.m., EST, on the Friday before
• Macy’s extended its Cyber Monday offers through
Wednesday
Cyber Monday 2016 was the biggest day in the history of US e-commerce
11. Sales by Region: Thanksgiving Day Through Cyber Monday • Brick-and-mortar sales were strongest in the West. The region saw 6.3% retail sales growth,
despite initial predictions that the East Coast would benefit from colder weather
• Middle Atlantic: brick-and-mortar sales were up 2.4% YoY
• New England: brick-and-mortar sales were up 3.2% YoY
14
Source: First Data
NEW ENGLAND3.2%
MIDDLE ATLANTIC2.4%
MIDWEST3.0%
SOUTH4.3%
WEST6.3%
SOUTHWEST4.4%
12. With the Bulk of Major Shopping Days Still Ahead, Expect a Last-Minute Rush of Holiday Shoppers
15
2016: Five Biggest Shopping Days
(Projected, Sales)
2016: Five Busiest Shopping
Days (Projected, Shopper Visits)
1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17
2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25
3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23
4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10
5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26
Source: RetailNext
• Four out of five of the biggest shopping days still ahead
• Friday, December 23, is set to be the biggest shopping day of the season
– That Friday is the day before Chanukah begins and two days before Christmas
• We expect a last-minute rush of shoppers who have procrastinated
13. Post–Black Friday Drop-Off in Traffic Seen in Last Few Weeks Is Normal
16
• While in-store traffic has moderated a bit, the decline does not seem as dramatic as in years past, based on our store visits
• In addition, our store visits confirmed that retailers have planned their inventories more conservatively than last year
14. Online Traffic Remained Strong in Early December, Despite Expected Post–Black Friday Drop-Off
17
Online traffic remained strong in early December:
• Over the December 3–4 weekend, online traffic was up 4% on Saturday and 10% on Sunday year over year (Verizon Enterprise Solutions)
– Extended Cyber Monday sales drove the increase
– According to Slice Intelligence, Amazon accounted for 38% of online holiday spending in the week following the Thanksgiving/Black Friday shopping weekend
Free Shipping Day (December 16), which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve, is likely to draw last-minute online shoppers
Overall, online sales are expected to increase by up to 10%, to $117 billion, during the holiday season (NRF)
15. Holiday Promotions Generally Consistent with Last Year, Not as Deep as Black Friday’s
18
Retailers are pulling back their Black Friday promotions in December:
• J.Crew shifted to 30% off from 40% off
• Abercrombie & Fitch dropped to 30% off from
50% off
• Ann Taylor dropped from 50% off to 40% off
However, retailers offered compelling promotions on Green Monday (December 12), also known as “Cyber Monday II”
• Ann Taylor Loft offered 40% off on Green
Monday, compared with 50% off on Cyber
Monday
• Wayfair.com offered 70% off certain items, the
same discount that it offered on Cyber Monday
• On both Cyber Monday and Green Monday,
Amazon offered the same sale on the Fire Tablet
and the Amazon Tap
Selected Retailers: Post–Black Friday to Mid-December Promotional Level
Compared with Last Year
Flat
Higher Lower
16. Holiday Themes: Retailers Should Take a Holistic View of Consumers to Be Successful
19
• Brands should effectively converge the digital and physical channels to deliver a single, seamless shopping experience that includes click-and-collect, ship to store and improved mobile shopping
• Retailers are increasingly making available online the type of doorbuster deals typically reserved for stores
Kohl’s: Improved its mobile experience; app engagement rose by 70% YoY on Black Friday
• Improved in-store service for online orders: nearly 40% of Kohls.com orders are fulfilled through buy online, pick up from store/ship from store
Walmart: Increased inventory available for online purchase and increased Black Friday online deals
• The company offered 50% more Black Friday merchandise online
Target: Offered Cyber Monday deals in-store this year
• The company increased the in-store pickup area for e-commerce orders, and doubled the number of stores offering pickup service (1,000)
Toys “R” Us: Increased its capacity to ship items; the company will be able to ship nearly twice as many units from its stores this holiday season
• Nearly all 870 stores are capable of shipping online orders
17. Holiday Themes: Fashion Trends
Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday season:
20
Source: Urban Outfitters
Yeezy Boost by Kanye WestSource: Adidas
Season of Sparkle SetSource: Ulta
Mila bootsSource: Chloe
Beauty - Ulta, Sephora
Boots and booties Denim - Embroidered denim
Sneakers - Puma, Adidas, celebrity tie-ins
18. Positive Holiday Calendar
• There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year: 31 days compared with 29 last year
• Super Saturday (December 17) is expected to be the second-biggest shopping day of the year
• Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day (December 16), which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve
• Christmas Eve and the first day of Chanukah fall on the same day this year, so holiday gift purchases will get an extra boost ahead of December 25
21
Election Day
Singles’ Day
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
Cyber Monday
Giving Tuesday
Green Monday
Chanukah (Sundown–Sundown, Dec 24–Jan 1)
Super Saturday
Christmas
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop
22
Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
A solid job market, relatively low gas prices and improving wages suggest that the economy has sustained its strong momentum from early in the fourth quarter—which is a positive sign for the holiday shopping season
The US unemployment rate was 4.6% in November, 40bps lower than in November 2015
Home prices continued to rise moderately in November, supported by low mortgage rates and a shortage of supply
Private sector wages rose by 2.5% year over year in November
Consumer confidence hit 93.8 in November, up 2.7% year over year
Indicator Period 2016 2015YoY %
Change Impact on
Consumption
Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Nov $2.16 $2.10 2.9% –
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Nov 93.8 91.3 2.7% +
Unemployment Rate Nov 4.6% 5.0% (40) bps +
Average Hourly Wages Nov $25.89 $25.16 2.5% +
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index
Sep 191.78 182.52 5.5% +
US Housing Starts Oct 132,300 101,474 23.3% +
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan
23
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Gasoline Prices Were the Second-
Lowest Since 2008 During Thanksgiving Weekend
Gasoline prices averaged $2.16 per gallon over November, up 2.9%, or 6 cents per gallon, from the year-ago period
• Prices increased by 1.9%, or 4 cents per gallon, from October
Still, the average price on Thanksgiving Weekend was the second lowest since 2008
• Over Thanksgiving, 48.7 million people traveled 50 miles or more, 1 million more than last year and the most since 2007 (AAA)
Looking ahead: gas prices to rise
• OPEC’s deal to decrease production will result in higher gas prices
24
Through November 30, 2016Source: US Energy Information Administration
US Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.)
$2.16
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Confidence Rises to
Six-Month High
The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment hit 93.8 in November, up 5% from September and up 2.7% YoY
• The reading was above the market’s expectation of 91.6
Confidence edged upward due to attitudes about:
1. Personal finances
2. Inflation
3. Unemployment
4. Government policies
5. Interest rates
25
Source: University of Michigan
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
93.8
50
70
90
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Labor Market Stands Firm,
Jobless Rate Falls to Nine-Year Low and Payrolls Rise
The US unemployment rate was 4.6% in November, down from 4.9% in October and 5.0% in the year-ago period:
• The decline in unemployment was partly driven by new jobs, offset by a 0.1% decline (62.7%) in labor force participation
Sector growth:
• Construction, professional/business services and healthcare grew
• Retail sector jobs declined for the second straight month, reflecting a shift toward online shopping
Payrolls grew by 178,000
26
Through November 30, 2016Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Unemployment Rate
4.6%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Wages Continue to Advance
Following Large Gains
Average hourly earnings fell by 0.1% over November, but were up 2.5% year over year
• Wages increased by 2.8% year over year in October
• This was the largest increase since June 2009
Looking ahead: further tightening of labor market
• This will support stronger wage growth in the months ahead
27
Through November 30, 2016Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change)
2.5%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Housing Starts Surge to
Nine-Year High
• Housing starts surged to a high not seen in more than nine years in October as builders ramped up construction of both single-family and multifamily homes
• US housing starts in October reached 132,300 (annualized), spiking by 25.5% MoM and by 23.3% YoY
• US building permits in October totaled 1,229,000, up 0.3% MoM and up 4.6% YoY
28
Source: US Census Bureau/National Association of Realtors
US: Housing Starts and Building Permits (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Thous.)
1,323
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
Housing Starts
1,229
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
Building Permits
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Sales Appear Solid, Decline
Slightly amid Higher Prices
• Home sales appear solid, but are constrained by supply and affordability
• Existing home sales increased by 2.0% month over month in October, to 5.6 million
– This indicates some release of pent-up demand due to tight supply over the summer
• New home sales decreased by 1.9% month over month in October
– The reading came in weaker than the expected drop of 0.5% due to lower affordability
29
5,600
4,000
4,400
4,800
5,200
5,600
6,000
Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
x 0
.00
1
Existing Home Sales
563
0
150
300
450
600
750
Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
New Home Sales
US: Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Thous.)
Source: US Census Bureau/National Association of Realtors
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Inch Up in November
• In November, US retail sales excluding autos were up 0.2% from October, versus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Year over year, sales were up 3.9%.
– Sales at nonstore retailers (such as Amazon, Google and eBay) rose by 11.9% year over year in November
– Department store sales saw the biggest decline in November, down 6.4% year over year, and continuing the recent trend of underperformance
30
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Jan 2013–Nov 2016 (YoY % Change)
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos Dec 2015–Nov 2016 (YoY % Change)
3.9%
3.9%
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 160
1
2
3
4
Source: US Census Bureau