US Army Corps of Engineers

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Climate Change and Navigation: EnviCom TG3

Presented by: Kate White, PhD, PEUSACE Institute for Water ResourcesChair, PIANC EnviCom PermanentTask Group on Climate Change

Navigating the Environment: Managing Risks and Sustaining the EnvironmentNew Orleans28 October 2009

Observed Climate Change

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Projected Climate Change

Climate Change Commitment

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PIANC and Climate Change PIANC is the global organization providing guidance for

sustainable waterborne transport, ports and waterways It is time to act

► Significant changes in climate and their impacts are visible regionally, and are expected to become more pronounced in the next decades

► Changes in the water balance and the discharge of rivers bring pressure on the reliability of inland navigation in the future

► Changing ice conditions bring new perspectives for marine/polar navigation

► Every infrastructure project has to deal already today with the possible impact of climate change

The European Commission recently developed the concept of climateproofing,

► Defined as “Ensuring the sustainability of investments over their entire lifetime, taking explicit account of a changing climate.”

► This may become an important driver in all future planning processes

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PIANC and Climate Change First step: Task Group 3

► Mandate: Review of climate change drivers, impacts, responses and mitigation for navigation sector

► Started in March 2007 and finished in April 2008► Members represent a broad cross-section of disciplines: climate

change specialists (meteorologists and forecasters), hydrology experts (water balance and discharge specialists), oceanographers, hydraulic engineers in the field of maritime and inland navigation

► Countries: Germany, United Kingdom, USA, France, Norway► Corresponding: Belgium, Spain, Australia, Japan, South Africa

Second step: EnviCom Permanent Task Group on Climate Change

► Kickoff October 2009► Terms of Reference

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PIANC TG3 Strategy

► Review of existing literature :• Create a common ground within PIANC • Identify areas where PIANC should develop technical

guidance about climate change for the navigation sector• Communicate that PIANC has recognized the challenges of

climate change

► Climate mitigation• How can the navigation sector contribute to the reduction of

greenhouse gas emissions?

► Climate adaption• How will the navigation sector be affected and what

adaptation strategies and measures are necessary?

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TG 3 Report Printed May 2008:

“Waterborne transport, ports and waterways: A review of climate change drivers, impacts, responses and mitigation”

Chairman: Dr. Hans Moser, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany

Secretary: Dr. Peter Hawkes, Hydraulic Research, Wallingford, UK

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TG 3 Report1. Identification of the relevance of climate change for

maritime and inland navigation2. Summary of the realistic impact scenarios (e.g.

environmental, technical, economic, political) by documenting the existing uncertainties with the use of climate models. The report shows potential impacts on navigation, distinguishing between maritime and inland navigation

3. Summary of examples where climate change already creates problems for navigation

4. Discussion on mitigation: how the navigation sector could contribute to reduce climate change impacts (e.g. reduction of CO2 emissions and alternative fuel concepts) and support navigation as an environmentally sound and sustainable mode of transportation

5. Discussion of adaptation: assessing climate impacts and responses to prepare the navigation sector for the projected climate scenarios with the aim of adapting navigation infrastructure, equipment and daily practice for future sustainability

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TG3: Dealing with uncertaintygreenhousegas emissions

greenhousegas concentration

globalclimate

regionalclimate

regionalclimateimpact

regionalmeasuresfor mitigation

GCM down-scaling

runoffmodel

rang

e of

unc

erta

inty

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TG3: Dealing with uncertainty

com plexity

un

cer

tain

ty

large spatial scale

small spatial scalemean values

extreme values

variability(inter-, intra-annual)temperature

precipitation

runoff

sediment transport

waterquality

ecosystemfunction

temperature

sea level rise

wind

waves

sediment transport

waterquality

ecosystemfunction

Maritime NavigationDrivers

Increase in power and reach of storm surge, coastal flooding, spray zone and erosion patterns

Change in magnitude and duration of storm surges and incidents of water over sea wall structures

Wave attack at a higher water level reducing the energy loss of breaking

Changes in frequency, duration and intensity of storms

Change in the sea level range (and other sea state parameters)

Ice and icing

Potential Impacts Changed dredging requirements Low land flooding Increased vulnerability/degradation of

structures Permanent loss of sand offshore and

onshore Less viable industrial land to enlarge

ports Retreat of coastal landscapes Problems in maneuvering Reduced capacity of natural systems

to recover Access to Polar Regions (NW and NE

Passages open all year) Potentially more ice at river outlets in

the north Potential northward relocation of fish

Inland Navigation

Trends and projections for extreme climatological and hydrological events (after Table SPM.2, IPCC, 2007d)

Phenomenon and direction of trend

Likelihood that the trend occurred in the late 20th century (typically post 1960)

Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES scenarios

Relevance to navigation

Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas

Very Likely (decreased frequency of coldest days and nights, coldest 10 %)

Virtually certain (warming of the most extreme days and nights each year)

Form of precipitation (snow/rain);

presence or absence of ice

Warmer and more frequent hot nights over most land areas

Very Likely (increased frequency of hot days and nights, hottest 10 %)

Virtually certain (warming of the most extreme days and nights each year)

Associated with drought

Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas

Likely Very LikelyAssociated with

drought

Area affected by droughts increases

Likely in many regions since the 1970’s

LikelyAssociated with

droughts

Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas

Likely Very Likely

Associated with floods

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Predicted changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999, for December to February (left) and June to August (right); white areas are where less than 66 % of the models agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than 90 % of the models agree in the sign of the change (reproduced from IPCC, Meehl et al., 2007, AR4 WG1, Figure 10.9)

A1B simulations: (top row) annual mean, DJF and JJA fractional change in precipitation from 1980‑1999 to 2080‑2099, averaged over 21 models; (bottom row) number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation (after IPCC, 2007d, Figure 11.12), superimposed over map of navigation from DOT freight analysis

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Tows delayed during ice conditions, Melvin Price Locks and Dam, Mississippi River, February 2007; ice build‑up in the lock caused one tow to become stuck, temporarily shutting down the lock; later, width restrictions were implemented

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TG3 Conclusions The navigation sector could contribute to a reduction in GHG

emissions by improving efficiency, employing alternative fuels, and emphasizing navigation as an environmentally-sound mode of transportation

Climate change adaptation alternatives are less well-studied, and often depend on local governmental requirements; the navigation industry can institute proactive management and planning in an effort to speed navigation-related climate change adaptation measures and reduce vulnerabilities

Ideally, the navigation community will employ adaptive planning, operational, and infrastructure decision-making that take into account natural and social system features and the impacts of incremental changes over time.

A comprehensive systems approach that allows continuous upgrades as new knowledge emerges and new engineering practices are developed will support satisfactory system safety and performance under the dynamic conditions and in the face of nonlinear processes associated with climate change

PTG CC Objectives

► Provide a common and basic platform for all PIANC commissions to build up their work plans regarding climate change

► ID relevant aspects of climate change for maritime and inland navigation

► Summarize where and how climate change and natural variability impact the navigation sector, including knowledge and technology gaps to drive future scientific research

► Provide information related to climate change adaptation for the navigation sector

► Information related to climate change mitigation potential (focus on inland navigation mitigation measures)

► Develop guidance on how PIANC should deal with climate change in detail in the future (roadmap)

► Knowledge management and technology transfer related to climate change between PIANC Commissions, and between PIANC and other organisations devoted to navigation, waterways, and port infrastructure, as well as other stakeholders

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PTG CC