US CLIVAR MJO Working Group: US CLIVAR MJO Working Group: Progress ReportProgress Report

D. Waliser/JPL and K. R. Sperber/PCMDI D. Waliser/JPL and K. R. Sperber/PCMDI on behalf of the MJO Working Groupon behalf of the MJO Working Group

US CLIVAR SUMMITUS CLIVAR SUMMITJuly 2007July 2007

http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/MJO_WG.htmlhttp://www.usclivar.org/Organization/MJO_WG.html

Membership Membership & Terms of & Terms of ReferenceReference

International International participation is participation is

facilitated/facilitated/supported by supported by International International

CLIVARCLIVAR

1)1) Develop MJO WG Web Site. Develop MJO WG Web Site. Done, Some Additions -Diagnostics Done, Some Additions -Diagnostics Link, Meeting/Telecon Updates, Theme PagesLink, Meeting/Telecon Updates, Theme Pages

2)2) Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations of the Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations of the MJO. MJO. ~Done, May still try to include codes and data sets~Done, May still try to include codes and data sets

3)3) Diagnostics Application to Models. Diagnostics Application to Models. Just Beginning, GCMs and Just Beginning, GCMs and partners identified and data being gathered, Analysis by Kim.partners identified and data being gathered, Analysis by Kim.

4)4) Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts. Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts. Under Discussion, ~50% DoneUnder Discussion, ~50% Done

5)5) Workshop/Experimentation Planning. Workshop/Experimentation Planning. UnderwayUnderway

Goals/Progress: SummaryGoals/Progress: Summary

Web Site Web Site ResourcesResources

Theme PagesTheme Pages&&

WG ActivitiesWG Activities

New

MJO Weather-Climate Theme PagesMJO Weather-Climate Theme Pages

Example: MJO & HurricanesExample: MJO & Hurricanesby Eric Maloneyby Eric Maloney

Web Site Web Site ResourcesResources

Theme PagesTheme Pages&&

WG ActivitiesWG Activities

Daehyun Kim/SNU

Link toMetrics

Web Site Web Site DiagnosticsDiagnostics

MJO MJO DiagnosticsDiagnostics

GeneralGeneralStrategyStrategy

&&DescriptionDescription

MJO MJO DiagnosticsDiagnostics

Recipe forRecipe forCalculatingCalculatingDiagnosticsDiagnostics________________________

CalculationCalculationCodes AvailableCodes Available- Need Feedback- Need Feedback

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

Plan To Make Plan To Make The Actual The Actual

Map/Plot DataMap/Plot DataAvailableAvailable

________________________

Summarize Summarize ResultsResults

in a Journalin a JournalArticle - Article - AboutAbout

To Divide WritingTo Divide WritingAssignmentsAssignments

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

Equatorial Equatorial Space-TimeSpace-Time

SpectraSpectraU, Rain, OLRU, Rain, OLR________________________

NCEP1,NCEP1,NCEP2,NCEP2,

& ERA40& ERA40

NCEP1NCEP1

ERA40ERA40

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

Time SeriesTime Series SpectraSpectra

U, Rain, OLRU, Rain, OLR________________________Domains ofDomains of

InterestInterest

OLR-IO

U850 - EP

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

Life-CycleLife-CycleCompositesComposites

U, Rain, OLR, SLP, SFU, Rain, OLR, SLP, SF

RainfallRainfall

U850U850

Satellite Rain/CloudSatellite Rain/Cloud: AVHRR, GPCP, TRMM: AVHRR, GPCP, TRMMAnalysis Data:Analysis Data: NCEP1,NCEP2 NCEP1,NCEP2

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

Life-CycleLife-Cycle3D Composites3D Composites

T, Q, U, WT, Q, U, W

SpecificSpecificHumidityHumidity

(x,p)(x,p)

Zonal Zonal WindWind(x,p)(x,p)

MJOMJODiagnosticsDiagnostics

ImportantImportantMean StateMean StateQuantitiesQuantities

Mean SSTMean SST

Mean Zonal Wind ShearMean Zonal Wind Shear Mean 850 hPa Zonal WindMean 850 hPa Zonal Wind

Application of MJO Diagnostics to GCMsApplication of MJO Diagnostics to GCMs

Undertaking a uniform application of MJO diagnostics to a number of contemporary GCMs. D. Kim has agreed to undertake the analysis and we plan to present these results at the MJO Workshop and write up the results into a journal article. The GCMs and associated institution leads are:

•GEOS-5 - S. Schubert/M.I. LeeGEOS-5 - S. Schubert/M.I. Lee•GFDL - W. Stern GFDL - W. Stern •NOAA-CFS - W. WangNOAA-CFS - W. Wang•CSU/superparam - M. CSU/superparam - M. KhairoutdinovKhairoutdinov•Echam4/OPYC - K. SperberEcham4/OPYC - K. Sperber•SNU - I.S. KangSNU - I.S. Kang•NCAR - R. NealeNCAR - R. Neale

Developing MJO Forecast Developing MJO Forecast Metrics/DiagnosticsMetrics/Diagnostics

• Discussions to date have led to the adoption of the so-called Wheeler-Hendon combined EOF (u200, u850, OLR) index.

• A number of centers (BMRC, NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, CMA) are using this operationally.

• We (i.e. K. Weickmann) are beginning to acquire these indices in real-time to post on the Experimental MJO Prediction website as a proof-of-concept.

• We may move this acquisition/dissemination process to CPC/NCEP via W. Higgins/J. Gottshalck.

• Our plans are eventually to produce a multi-model ensemble (MME) of these values. Standard calculations need to be agreed upon in order to properly implement and interpret this MME measure.

• We expect/hope that this may lead to a journal article.

• Additional measures, particularly applicable to the Asian Monsoon may be needed.

Developing MJO Forecast Developing MJO Forecast Metrics/DiagnosticsMetrics/Diagnostics

Mode 1Mode 1

Mode 2Mode 2

Mode 1Mode 1M

od

e 2

Mod

e 2

MJOMJOWorkshopWorkshop

MJOMJOWorkshopWorkshop

MJOMJOWorkshopWorkshop

InvitationsTo Be SentThis Week

1)1) Develop MJO WG Web Site. Develop MJO WG Web Site. Done, Some Additions -Diagnostics Done, Some Additions -Diagnostics Link, Meeting/Telecon Updates, Theme PagesLink, Meeting/Telecon Updates, Theme Pages

2)2) Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations of the Diagnostics for Asessing Model Simulations of the MJO. MJO. ~Done, May still try to include codes and data sets~Done, May still try to include codes and data sets

3)3) Diagnostics Application to Models. Diagnostics Application to Models. Just Beginning, GCMs and Just Beginning, GCMs and partners identified and data being gathered, Analysis by Kim.partners identified and data being gathered, Analysis by Kim.

4)4) Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts. Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts. Under Discussion, ~50% DoneUnder Discussion, ~50% Done

5)5) Workshop/Experimentation Planning. Workshop/Experimentation Planning. UnderwayUnderway

Goals/Progress: SummaryGoals/Progress: Summary