us employment rate data and trends – january 2017

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

2017 starts off strong with wide-

reaching gains

U.S. employment situation: January 2017 February 3, 2017

January 2017 employment summary

• Employment growth bounces back across sectors

- January saw 227,000 net new jobs, a return to the stronger form seen in 2014 and 2015, but still volatile on a monthly basis. Growth was

found across sectors, with retail trade, PBS, construction, leisure, health and finance all recording monthly increases in excess of 30,000

jobs.

- Unemployment rose for the second consecutive month and now sits at 4.8 percent, boosted by an increase in the labor force participation

rate to 62.9 percent. However, the expansion of the civilian labor force is not keeping up with job growth, which will keep slack minimal in

the near-term.

- Job openings have stabilized at around the 5.3-million mark in recent months and have risen by 6.2 percent over the year. Although hiring

figures have stayed consistent, quits are up at an even higher 7.1 percent, indicating that employees have strong confidence in the job

market.

• Wages are still up, but growing slower

- Wage growth slowed to 2.5 percent after hitting a cycle high 2.8 percent in December, in part due to larger sectors such as PBS and

education and health seeing slower wage growth. Even with inflation jumping to 2.1 percent, earnings are still outpacing the increase in the

cost of goods and services, encouraging spending and in turn GDP growth.

- Rising costs of goods and services are beginning to have effects on consumer confidence, which slipped from a 15-year high reached in

December to 109.4 points. The short-term outlook for spending is still positive, as wages will continue to rise on the back of near-full

employment.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

January 2017 U.S. labor market at a glance

+227,000(76 consecutive months

of growth)1-month net change

+2,343,000(+1.6% y-o-y)

12-month change

+787,00010-year average annual growth


4.8%Unemployment rate

-10bp12-month change in unemployment

62.9%Labor force participation rate

5,522,000(+6.2% y-o-y)

Job openings

5,219,000(-0.6% y-o-y)

Hires

3,064,000(+7.1% y-o-y)

Quits

3

January broke the 200,000-job mark for the first time in four

month with 227,000 net new jobs

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

0011

0,00

088

,000 10

6,00

012

2,00

022

1,00

018

3,00

016

4,00

0 196,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

0011

0,00

088

,000

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

084

,000

166,

000

188,

000 22

5,00

033

0,00

023

6,00

028

6,00

024

9,00

021

3,00

0 250,

000

221,

000

423,

000

329,

000

221,

000 26

5,00

084

,000

251,

000

273,

000

228,

000

277,

000

150,

000

149,

000

295,

000

280,

000

262,

000

168,

000

233,

000

186,

000

277,

000

24,0

0027

1,00

025

2,00

017

6,00

0 208,

000

135,

000

164,

000

157,

000

227,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

4


For the second consecutive month, unemployment rose on the

back of increasing participation; now stands at 4.8 percent

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

Job openings appear to have stabilized around the 5.3 million

mark in recent months as labor-market slack dissipates


6

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

2.4%

2.4%

2.6%

2.7%

2.7%

3.2%

3.6%

3.8%

4.4%

4.6%

4.7%

1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%

Mining and logging

Government

Manufacturing

Construction

Information

Other services

Trade, transportation and utilities

Financial activities

Leisure and hospitality

Professional and business services

Education and health

Job openings rate

Job openings rates by industry have also begun to level off, led

by health, education, PBS and leisure


7

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Quits continue to rise with no sign of slowing, mirroring

employee and consumer confidence boosts


Wage growth dipped to 2.5 percent from a cycle high of 2.8

percent in December, but continues to outpace rising inflation


9

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

Hourly wage growth CPI growth

0.7%

1.9%

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

2.9%

3.0%

3.2%

3.9%

4.2%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%


Education and health


Trade, transportation and utilities

Other services

Manufacturing

Mining and logging

Construction

Information


12-month % change in wages

Slower growth in financial, education, health and PBS wages

largely responsible for dip in rate of wage growth

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics – office-using sectors in red

10

The labor force participation rate rose by 20bp to 62.9 percent,

bringing it back to early 2016 levels


11

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Despite rising participation, job growth continues to outpace

expansion in the labor force, leading to market tightening


12

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e

Civilian labor force Total non-farm

-10.0

-4.0

-1.0

-0.6

3.0

3.0

3.3

4.0

5.0

6.0

14.8

16.0

24.0

32.0

32.1

34.0

36.0

39.0

45.9

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Government

Transportation and warehousing

Nondurable goods

Utilities

Information

Wholesale trade

Motor vehicles and parts

Mining and logging

Manufacturing

Durable goods

Temporary help services

Other services

Education and health services


Health care and social assistance


Construction


Retail trade

1-month net change (thousands)

Retail and construction bounced back for robust cross-sector

gains over the month

13


-56.0

-53.0

-46.0

0.1

4.0

7.0

14.3

35.5

70.0

94.1

107.5

162.0

170.0

190.0

229.0

347.0

471.6

556.0

574.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Mining and logging

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Utilities

Information

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Wholesale trade

Other services

Temporary help services

Transportation and warehousing

Government

Construction


Retail trade


Health care and social assistance

Education and health services


12-month net change (thousands)

574.0

556.0

347.0

229.0

190.0

447.0

PBS Education and health

Leisure and hospitality Retail trade

Financial activities Manufacturing

All other jobs

Rebounds in recent months have made PBS the leader in

annual employment growth once again


14

Core subsectors added 80.9 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

for

bach

elor

’s d

egre

e ho

lder

s (%

)Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders remains at a

cyclical low of 2.5 percent


15

Upward revisions to financial services and sustained PBS gains

improving office-using stability

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Information Professional and business services Financial activities


16

Deregulation expected to keep energy on the rebound, while

tech remains steady at 4.6 percent

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2016

17

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Unemployment claims data very strong: for three consecutive

weeks, the moving average has stayed below 250,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

18

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

Inde

xAfter hitting 15-year high in December, consumer confidence

slipped in January

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

19

Even though tech is beginning to cool off and normalize to new

growth rates, Seattle and Silicon Valley remain leaders in jobs


20

Silicon

Valley

3.4%

Orlando

4.2%

Denver

3.3%

Dallas

3.3%

Salt Lake

City

3.4%

Seattle-

Bellevue

3.4%

Increasing participation and expansion of the civilian labor

force pushed total unemployment up 20bp to 9.4 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Tot

al u

nem

ploy

men

t (%

)

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


21

©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

Ryan Severino

Chief Economist - Americas Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Senior Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research

[email protected]

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us employment rate data and trends – january 2017

Economy & Finance