U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Latin America: Current PerspectivesProfessor Jacqueline MazzaTuesday, March 15Johns Hopkins University, SAISWashington, DC

Today’s Lecture•Review key principles of U.S. foreign

policy towards region▫Historic timeline post WWII

•Focus on:▫Post Cold war era▫Relations after 9-11

•Discuss foreign policy agenda in 2012: ▫key unresolved issues▫future issues

Fundamental tenets of U.S.-Latin American Relations: 1776-1945•Great disproportion in political,

economic and military power between U.S. and Latin America

•Power utilized principally advance U.S. security interests

Fundamental tenets of U.S.-Latin American Relations: 1776-1945•U.S. understanding of its security needs

defined as keeping out foreign powers from Latin America ▫To 1901 – Western Europe (Great Britain,

Russia, Spain) permitting US territorial and economic expansion

▫20th century war years: Germany (WWI and WWII)

▫Cold war: Soviet Union – 1945+

Monroe Doctrine - 1823•The American continents are henceforth

not to be considered subjects for future colonization by any European power.”

•“U.S. would see “any attempt on their (European) part to extend their system toany portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety”

Disproportionate power + emphasis on security led to…•Long history of military intervention

▫ 1848 – war with Mexico▫ W.Wilson 1912-21▫ Panama Canal intervention - 1903▫ Bay of Pigs (Cuba)▫ 1954 – Guatemala – (CIA supported coup)

•Economic policy emphasized U.S. investment interests

•U.S. discomfort with more radical revolutions (U.S. “revolution” = first anti-colonial war” that wasn’t revolutionary)

When were relations different?•“Good Neighbor Policy” - Franklin Delano

Roosevelt 1942-1945▫No military intervention pledge (removed

Platt amendment – Cuba)▫Unified anti-Nazi coalition▫Free trade agreements▫Social and cultural exchange

Ends with early Cold war/Korean intervention

When were relations different?•Alliance for Progress – JF Kennedy

▫Massive economic and social aid commitment to region

▫Ambitious social-political goals

▫Social and cultural exchange

Mixed results, Cold war security concerns dominated over the alliance-U.S. silent to series of coups:

Most conflictive modern period – 1980s- Reagan Administration in Central America•U.S. military assistance to Nicaraguan

“contra” rebels fighting Sandinista government•Massive military assistance to Salvadoran

military and government against FMLN-FDR rebels

•Covert support to authoritarian governments in Guatemala, Chile, Brazil, Argentina.

•External threat of Soviet Union coverted to internal “threat” from left-progressive parties in Latin America

Most conflictive modern period – 1980s- Reagan Administration in Central America•Economic assistance principally for Cold

war purposes; •Latin America sees US indifference to “lost

decade of the 1980s” •Latin America embraces economic

orthodoxy (“Washington consensus”) •Politically organizes to counter U.S.

security policy (e.g. Contadora group, Oscar Arias peace plan for Central America)

Improvement of relations under George HW Bush

•George HW Bush (#41) embraces “kinder, gentler” policy

•U.S. support for▫Central American peace processes/Arias Plan▫Debt reduction (Brady Plan)▫Negotiates NAFTA

•1989 Berlin Wall falls, shift in Cold War

Bush onward -- emergence of a post Cold War U.S. Foreign Policy •Keeping out Soviet Union no longer

prevailing “obsession”•Early focus on free trade (NAFTA) and

potentially a WHFTA (Western Hemisphere FTA)

•Attention to debt issues and macroeconomic management

Post Cold War U.S. Foreign Policy: Drugs tops security agenda•From 1970s, anti-narcotics becomes part

of US-Latin American security agenda•But post Cold War – anti-narcotics

“substitutes” for anti-communism as top US security issue▫Principal rationale for U.S. military forces

in region▫Militarization of U.S. drug policy begins in

1980s

Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy

#1 - Caribbean supply interdiction (Reagan)

- expensive and ineffective - drug routes move via Central America-

Mexico

Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy #2 Andean Source Countries (Bush 41-

Clinton-Bush 43)

▫ Andean Initiative (Bush 41) – reducing supply/crop erradication in Colombia, EU, BO

▫ Plan Colombia – (Clinton and Bush 43) ▫ July 2000, $1.3 billion Colombia, mostly military aid▫ By 2009 nearly $7 billion, Colombia becomes #3 aid

recipient worldwide▫ Bush 43-Uribe

- reduction in violence, institution-building, - supply reduction ineffective, shift to Mexican cartels

Post 9-11 – impacts?•Greater impact of U.S. foreign policy

overall then relations with Latin America•Initially search to infuse anti-terrorism in

U.S. policy towards region•Redefinition of FARC-ELN as terrorist

organizations •Reduced (temporarily) the scope of US

agenda with the region

Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy #3 Mexico/Merida Initiative (Bush 43-

Obama)▫Supply and transit interdiction▫DTOs – criminal enterprises▫Dispersion of drug trade

-Continued ineffective LA supply interruptionwithout U.S. demand reduction

Obama Administration•change in “tone” of relations•approval of Free Trade agreements –

Colombia and Panama•expanded Merida Initiative (Merida II) in

light of increasing drug violence in Mexico

•Aid to Haitian earthquake recovery•widened range of relations/contacts

2012: Future agenda? Constraints-New Dimensions•Budget/Fiscal Constraints•Global foreign policy – Afganistan, Middle

East•Wide ranging LAC agenda•Crime and violence surge•Diversified trade partners for region

2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal•3 Key unfinished issues:

▫1. Drugs and Crime

▫2. Immigration No progress on legal immigration reform Increased deportations

▫3. Cuba

2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal•Key future issues:

▫1. Energy

▫2. Trade and investment Brazil – rising role China – leading trade partner – BR, CH, Peru

2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal•Key future issues:

▫ (3. Development)