Matt RosensteinAssociate Director

Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS) at UIUCModified by: Kevin Sacerdote Mandarin High School Jacksonville, FL

Only country in the world to carry out a nuclear attack?•United States, on Japan, WWII

•Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945)

Fat Man and Little Boy

Estimated that between 115,000-170,000 were killed immediately

Twice as many more died over time (radiation poisoning)

95% of deaths were civilian

Little Boy: 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent Most nuclear warheads today: yield between

150 kiloton-1 megaton “Tsar bomba”: Soviets exploded a

50-megaton bomb in test (1961) Spasm attack by US or USSR would

result in 40-75 million Soviet and110-150 million US deaths (RAND, 1960)

Source: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets (2005) *=1956 totals

US USSR/Russia

Year Launchers Warheads Launchers Warheads

1950 462 400 22* 84*

1960 1,559 3,127 144 354

1970 2,100 5,239 1,985 2,216

1980 2,022 10,608 2,545 7,480

1990 1,903 12,477 2,500 10,271

2000 1,407 7,519 1,266 6,094

2005 1,225 5,966 981 4,732

• Both US and USSR created “nuclear triad” forces:• Ground (ICBM)• Sea (SLBM)• Air (Bombers)

•Territorial integrity and national sovereignty

•Ideological struggle•Capitalism vs. communism

•Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule

•Military prowess: nukes as visible symbol of power

•USSR could not keep up economically

•MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction•Deterrence•Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral bodies

1942 US initiates Manhattan Project

1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki

1949 Soviet explosion of nuclear device

1957 Sputnik

1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Eisenhower’s: drafted in 1960 “Massive Retaliation” Overkill-use of 3,500 nuclear weapons against the USSR

John F. Kennedy (and Robert McNamara) “Counterforce” At first, Implied a limited Nuclear Strike (aim for weapon storage

facilities, not populations or factories) Later, “Assured Destruction” 20-25% of the population, 50% of

the Industry “Mutual “ was added by Donald Brennan of the Hudson Institute

to create the acronym “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction) The USSR does NOT achieve Nuclear Parity with the USA until

the late 1960’s/Early 1970’s --- Leads to: Keepin’ Up With the Jones’

BE SURE TO REVIEW THE TYPED INFORMATION ON THE GOPO WEBSITE!!!

Multilateral: Antarctic Treaty (1959) Outer Space Treaty (1967)

Outlaws military uses for either area.

Biological Weapons Convention (1972) Inhumane Weapons Convention (1981)

Outlaws use of chemical weapons, other weapons that could cause undue “collateral damage”

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968)Prevents transfer of nuclear weapons and/or technology

to non-nuclear states.

Limited Test Ban Treaty (1968)Prohibits testing weapons in atmosphere, outer space,

and underwater (later expanded)

1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty•End of atmospheric testing•“Hotline”•Halt proliferation to other states

1969-1972 SALT I•Set numerical limits on missile launchers (not warheads-->MIRVs)

1972-1979 SALT II•Broader limits than SALT I…but Afghanistan spoiled negotiations (Ratified?)

1972 ABM Treaty•Limited each to two ABM sites (no nationwide defense)

•Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based systems

•Limit on qualitative improvement

•Problematic: “Star Wars”, US pull-out in 2001-2

1972 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty (1987)

Eliminates shorter-range missiles in Europe; allows for onsite inspections

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (1991)

30% reduction in total nuclear arsenal.

1991 START I Treaty

•Negotiated almost 10 years

•Reductions in launchers (max. 1,600) and warheads (max. 6,000)

1993 START II Treaty

•Further reductions; never ratified by US Senate and Russian Duma

Major Destruction & Dismantlement SiteChemical Weapons & Support Facility

SSBN BaseICBM Base (Silo)Mobile ICBM Base

Production FacilitiesNon deployed ICBMsHeavy Bombers

Kazakhstan

Russia

Ukraine

BelarusICBMs:ICBM Launcher Pads:

Warheads:

94 54

~225

ICBMs:ICBM Launchers:

HBs: Warhead:

258176

36~1,984

ICBMs:SLBMs:

HBs:Warheads::

1,3401,924

87~11,296

11510440

~1,462

ICBMs:ICBM Launchers:

HBs: Warhead:

•1960s: both US and USSR were developing bio-weapons programs (US stockpiled tularemia bacteria, anthrax, a Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis virus (dried and liquid), and other “items”

•1972: BWC: US, USSR (other actors, such as UK) agreed to halt bio-weapons research

•1992: Russian scientists reported work with smallpox from 1970s-1990s (felt the USA was also cheating- Dead Hand ( by David Hoffman) claims most of the US stockpile was destroyed in 1973 pp. 101-126)

•Bio-Program cheaper than nukes (Bacteria = Prefix “L” and Viruses = Prefix “N”)

•Worked with Plague (L1), Tularemia(L2), Brucellosis (L3), Anthrax 836 (L4), Smallpox (Variola) (N1), Ebola (N2), Marburg (N3), Tularemia(L2), and others in large quantities

•Various research efforts: aerosolizing the virus; placed on ballistic missile warheads…

1975 to 1991 Covertly, USSR built the largest

biological weapons program in the world

Experimentations with genetic engineering to create pathogens that would cause unstoppable diseases

Unstoppable diseases not considered a “battlefield weapon” (p. 14)

•Concerns over safeguarding nuclear technologies and materials

•Dysfunctional military: command and control?

• ~150,000 scientists, engineers, technicians employed in weapons-related work

•1990s economic crisis meant low wages (or back wages owed…) --> “nuclear entrepreneurs”

•Sell their knowledge?Seek employment in countries with nuclear aspirations?

Silo Launcher Elimination Heavy Bomber Elimination

SS-24/SS-25 Mobile Launcher Elimination

SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement & Elimination

Liquid Propellant ICBM/ SLBM Elimination

Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and Mobile Launcher Elimination

Keeping out the terrorists at Vector (biotechnology facility, Koltsovo, Russia)…

•More than 6,000 nuclear weapons destroyed

•Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices

•Removed all weapons from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan (pp. 440 – 458 of The Dead Hand )

•Employed thousands of former weapons scientists

•Also destroying chemical and biological weapons

•The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and its Dangerous Legacy, by David E. Hoffman (2009, Doubleday Publishing)

•In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6-month notice that US would withdraw from treaty

•Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect against WMD threats from terrorists, “rogue states”

•Putin regime protested vehemently-->felt it would limit their deterrence capabilities (made START II levels undesirable)

•Failure of Russian diplomacy?

•SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty), or “Moscow Treaty” signed in May 2002•Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012•Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate

•Potential for technology, materials, knowledge transfers

•“Setting a bad example”—weapons stockpiles and fissile materials stocks are disincentives for India, Pakistan, Israel(?), Iran, N. Korea, etc.

•Whither the United States?

•National Missile Defense

•Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes

•Nuclear primacy?

•Whither Russia?

•Superpower nostalgia

•Maintain credible deterrence

•Relations with China, Iran vs. with US, EU