us unemployment charts

8/14/2019 US Unemployment Charts

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US unemployment: a few must see charts

Friday, I commented on non-farm payrolls weak numbers. Today, I am providing severalcharts from various sources that put these in perspective together with additionalcomments.

1. Employment and the 2000s: the lost decade

the number of jobs at the end of a decade has been anywhere from 20% to 38% greater

than 10 years prior. This sub-par job growth is particularly noteworthy due to the fact thatthe US population has increased by 10% in addition to a significant increase in global wealth during the same time frame.





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2. The unemployment situation in the current economic recession compares very badly with past one since WW II

This recession is the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst interms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse). We are lower as the 1948 recession but will recover like the 2001 recession i.e. very lengthy recovery.





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3. Monthly Changes in Non Farm Payroll, 2004-09

This graph jut shows the gross figures. It is evident that the pace of job shedding isabating, but does not point towards a fast recovery in the employment situation.





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4. The percent of those employed 27 weeks and over 27 weeks and over is atrecord high since WW II at 40%, almost twice the previous peak

Unemployed are having more difficulties to find a job. It is important for this number todecrease since then next step is for unemployed to no longer looking for a job.





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5. The employment rate is now at the lowest since August 1983 at 58.2%

The decline has been particularly sharp.The US finished the decade at 130.9 million,practically unchanged from the start of the decade. Meanwhile, the total pool of availablelabour rose from 146 million to 159 million. Therefore we have 13 million more peoplecompeting for the same number of job than in 2000.





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6. Temp help is improving

This is a positive signal since temporary jobs is a leading indicator on the unemploymentsituation. December was the 5th positive number in a row.

No doubt that we are seeing modestly positive growth in the economy and that the pace of job declines is moderating. This however has been the result of an unprecedented publicsector intervention. The private sector is still idle despite the magnitude of a fiscal andmonetary stimulus of of historical proportion.

The leaves me worried about the macro-economic outlook since the extraordinary measures taken in 2008-2009 cannot be repeated if the private sector does not roll again.





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Source:

Chart of the Day http://www.chartoftheday.com/20100108.htm?T

The New York Times: The Labor Picture in December http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/08/business/economy/0108-jobs-graphic.html

Calculated Risk: Unemployment Report

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/employment-report-85k-jobs-lost-10.html

Bruce Steinberg: Employment Report http://www.brucesteinberg.net/Monthly_Employment_Situation.htm

Gluskin Sheff https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles/Snack_with_Dave_010810.pdf

us unemployment charts

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