USA DOE – OIL STATISTICS

WEEK 352016

ARNAUD BOUCARD

The opinions expressed in this report are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of my employer, Thomson Reuters

Source: US Department of Energy

AGENDA

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 03

1. CRUDE OIL 04

2. GASOLINE 06

3. DISTILLATES 08

4. KEROZENE 10

5. REFINERY 12

II. ANNEXE 13

2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYDOE – STATISTICS

Crude stocks rose by 2 276 kb to 525 870 kb versus an expected rise of 921 kb. This rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 911 kb. Confirming gain trend during last 2 weeks, stocks are 147 998 kb over the 5y average (377 872 kb)and reached a new high for week 35 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 2 330 kb superior to the 4w average (523 540 kb), and 70 442 kb over the last year (455 428 kb).

Cushing stocks down by 1 039 kb to 63 867 kb. I t's 25 798 kb over the 5y Average (38 069 kb), 773 kb beneath the 4w average (64 640 kb), and 6 560 kb above the last year (57 307 kb).

Gasoline Stocks down by 690 kb to 232 004 kb versus an expected reduction of 1 157 kb. I t is 20 559 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (211 445 kb), 28 572 kb/d superior to the 4w average (203 433 kb), and 17 570 kb/d superior to the last year (214 434 kb). The fall was led by PADD 3 with a drawdown of 1 936 kb, and lower implied demand (- 148 kb/d). With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 35 (over 5 past years).

For a 3rd consecutive week, Distillates stocks built by 1 496 kb to 154 753 kb versus an expected fall of 1 157 kb. that is 17 537 kb/d over the 5y Average (137 216 kb), 25 638 kb/d above the 4w average (129 115 kb), and 4 802 kb/d superior to the last year (149 951 kb). The rise was run by PADD 1 with a gain of 1 645 kb.

The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks contracted by 718 kb to 41 033 kb, which is 311 kb/d over the 5y Average (40 722 kb), 478 kb/d under the 4w average (41 511 kb), and 1 513 kb/d under the last year (42 546 kb). The drawdown was driven by PADD 1 with a delcline of 692 kb, and higher implied demand ( 187 kb/d).

Refinery Run rise 0.39 pt versus an expected rise of 0.60 pt.

3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Change Level

2,276 525,870

-1,039 63,867

-690 232,004

1,496 154,753

-718 41,033

0.39 92.84%

Difference

-157

-0.60

1,355

467

1,653

0.99

Current Week

Crude Oil - Lower 48

Crude Oil - Cushing

Gasoline

Distillates

Kerozene

Refinery Run

Thomson Reuters

Survey

921

-1,157

WEEK 352016

CRUDE OIL

4

Storage (kb) Cushing (Oklahoma) - Storage (kb)

320,000335,000350,000365,000380,000395,000410,000425,000440,000455,000470,000485,000500,000515,000530,000545,000

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

4,8005,1005,4005,7006,0006,3006,6006,9007,2007,5007,8008,1008,4008,7009,0009,3009,6009,900

18,00022,00026,00030,00034,00038,00042,00046,00050,00054,00058,00062,00066,00070,00074,000

6,5006,8507,2007,5507,9008,2508,6008,9509,3009,650

10,00010,350

21.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.031.032.033.034.035.0

CRUDE OILEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

For a 2de consecutive week, crude stocks rose by 2 276 kb to 525 870 kb. This rise was run by PADD 3 with a gain of 2 911 kb.

Stocks levels of PADD 1, PADD 2, PADD 4, PADD 5 moved by 143 kb, -1 403 kb, 243 kb, 381 kb respectively.

Confirming gain trend during last 2 weeks, stocks are 147 998 kb over the 5y average (377 872 kb)and reached a new high for week 35 (over 5 past years). Furthermore, stocks are 2 330 kb superior to the 4w average (523 540 kb), and 70 442 kb over the last year (455 428 kb).

Weekly crude run (refinery input) fell by 64 kb/d to 16 614 kb/d. 4w Average reached 16 614 kb/d (- 64 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 31.5 days of supply.

Cushing stocks down by 1 039 kb to 63 867 kb. I t's 25 798 kb over the 5y Average (38 069 kb), 773 kb beneath the 4w average (64 640 kb), and 6 560 kb above the last year (57 307 kb).

Crude production drew by 60 kb/d to 8 488 kb/d. That is 1 177 kb/d over the 5y Average (7 311 kb), 32 kb/d under the 4w average (8 520 kb/d), and 730 kb/d below the last year (9 218 kb).

Crude imports rose by 275 kb/d to 8 917 kb/d. I t's 631 kb/d above the 5y Average (8 286 kb), 378 kb/d above the 4w average (8 540 kb/d), and 1 061 kb/d above the last year (7 856 kb).

US imports: Canada (3 015 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (1 150 kb/d), Mexico ( 406 kb/d), Venezuela ( 909 kb/d), Kuwait ( 186 kb/d), Colombia ( 835 kb/d), Ecuator ( 226 kb/d), and Angola ( 268 kb/d), and Iraq ( 403 kb/d), and Nigeria ( 336 kb/d), and Others (1 183 kb/d).

5

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/26/2016 8/19/2016 vs current vs current 8/28/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND (kbl /day) Implied Demand 16,614 16,678 -64 16,689 -75 16,388 226 15,761 853REFINERY INPUT (kbl /day) Total 16,614 16,678 -64 16,689 -75 16,388 226 15,761 853

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,115 1,097 18 1,072 43 1,217 -102 1,152 -37PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,802 3,734 68 3,733 69 3,546 256 3,506 296PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,580 8,712 -132 8,776 -196 8,404 176 8,014 566PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 583 591 -8 584 -1 628 -45 587 -4PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,534 2,544 -10 2,524 11 2,593 -59 2,502 32

PRODUCTION (kbl / day) Total 8,488 8,548 -60 8,520 -32 9,218 -730 7,311 1,177IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 8,917 8,642 275 8,540 378 7,856 1,061 8,286 631

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,239 1,278 -39 1,043 196 738 501 973 266PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 2,566 2,142 424 2,409 157 2,405 161 1,939 627PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3,237 3,473 -236 3,440 -203 3,014 223 3,745 -508PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 236 361 -125 288 -52 268 -32 302 -66PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,639 1,388 251 1,360 279 1,431 208 1,328 311

STORAGE (kbl) Total 525,870 523,594 2,276 523,540 2,330 455,428 70,442 377,872 147,998

PADD 1 PADD 1 - East Coast 20,259 20,116 143 18,810 1,450 16,230 4,029 12,313 7,946PADD 2 PADD 2 - Midwest 151,032 152,435 -1,403 152,392 -1,360 140,097 10,935 105,182 45,850

Cushing (Oklahoma) 63,867 64,906 -1,039 64,640 -773 57,307 6,560 38,069 25,798PADD 3 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 275,550 272,639 2,911 273,164 2,386 225,332 50,218 190,212 85,338PADD 4 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 26,974 26,731 243 26,413 561 21,598 5,376 18,490 8,484PADD 5 PADD 5 - West Coast 52,055 51,674 381 52,761 -706 52,170 -115 51,674 381

GASOLINE

WEEK 352016

Storage (kb) Price

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

6

8,2508,4258,6008,7758,9509,1259,3009,4759,6509,825

10,00010,17510,35010,525

195,000200,000205,000210,000215,000220,000225,000230,000235,000240,000245,000250,000255,000260,000

300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

GASOLINEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

7

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation 5 Years Avrg Variation8/26/2016 8/19/2016 vs current vs current 8/28/2015 vs current vs current

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 9,511 9,659 -148 9,675 -164 9,438 73 9,284 227REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 10,021 10,021 0 10,109 -88 8,936 1,085 8,855 1,166 Adjustement (Blend) -163 -7 -156 -108 -55 -1,190 1,027 -617 454 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,294 3,277 17 3,313 -19 3,256 38 3,070 224 PADD 2 - Midw est 2,601 2,656 -55 2,676 -75 2,687 -86 2,402 199 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,237 2,054 183 2,189 49 2,168 69 2,069 168 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 331 343 -12 338 -7 309 22 303 28 PADD 5 - West Coast 1,721 1,698 23 1,700 21 1,706 15 1,628 93IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 831 800 31 793 38 834 -3 728 103 PADD 1 - East Coast 640 662 -22 659 -19 690 -50 668 -28 PADD 2 - Midw est 6 15 -9 9 -3 4 2 6 0 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 134 100 34 85 49 45 89 24 110 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 1 0 1 1 0 6 -5 0 1 PADD 5 - West Coast 50 23 27 39 11 89 -39 31 19STORAGE (kbl) Total 232,004 232,694 -690 203,433 28,572 214,434 17,570 211,445 20,559 PADD 1 - East Coast 67,178 69,114 -1,936 69,333 -2,155 60,401 6,777 56,148 11,030 PADD 2 - Midw est 49,859 48,362 1,497 49,452 407 47,343 2,516 47,376 2,483 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 78,513 77,958 555 77,583 930 74,523 3,990 73,859 4,654 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 6,578 6,973 -395 7,034 -456 6,422 156 6,505 73 PADD 5 - West Coast 29,876 30,287 -411 29,782 94 25,745 4,131 27,557 2,319DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE)

Gasoline Stocks down by 690 kb to 232 004 kb, which is 20 559 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (211 445 kb), 28 572 kb/d superior to the 4w average (203 433 kb), and 17 570 kb/d superior to the last year (214 434 kb).

The fall was led by PADD 3 with a drawdown of 1 936 kb, and lower implied demand (- 148 kb/d).

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by1 497 kb, 555 kb, - 395 kb, - 411 kb

With current level Gasoline stocks reached a new high for week 35 (over 5 past years).

Weekly volume supplied of Gasoline contracted by 148 kb/d to 9 511 kb/d. 4w Average reached 9 675 kb (- 164 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 24.0 days of supply.

Gasoline production was neutral 0 kb/d to 10 021 kb/d. That is 1 166 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (8 855 kb), 88 kb/d behind the 4w average (10 109 kb), and 1 085 kb/d superior to the last year (8 936 kb).

Gasoline imports built by 31 kb/d to 831 kb/d. I t's 103 kb/d over the 5y Average ( 728 kb), 38 kb/d superior to the 4w average ( 793 kb), and 3 kb/d behind the last year ( 834 kb).

DISTILLATES

WEEK 352016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

8

97,500105,000112,500120,000127,500135,000142,500150,000157,500165,000172,500180,000

21.7522.5023.2524.0024.7525.5026.2527.0027.7528.5029.2530.00

2575

125175225275325375425475525575

3,8003,9254,0504,1754,3004,4254,5504,6754,8004,9255,0505,1755,300

Price

DISTILLATESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

9

8/26/2016 8/19/2016 vs current vs current 8/28/2015 vs current vs currentIMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 3,838 3,790 48 3,763 75 3,761 77 3,764 74REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 4,974 4,850 124 4,876 99 4,923 51 4,743 231 PADD 1 - East Coast 358 357 1 341 17 372 -14 368 -10 PADD 2 - Midwest 1,121 1,073 48 1,042 79 990 131 1,024 97 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 2,687 2,626 61 2,724 -37 2,720 -33 2,653 34 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 190 178 12 179 11 209 -19 186 4 PADD 5 - West Coast 618 616 2 589 29 632 -14 511 107IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 127 224 -97 157 -30 77 50 140 -13 PADD 1 - East Coast 113 159 -46 126 -13 75 38 89 24 PADD 2 - Midwest 1 2 -1 2 -1 0 1 2 -1 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 PADD 5 - West Coast 13 63 -50 29 -16 2 11 5 8STORAGE (kbl) Total 154,753 153,257 1,496 129,115 25,638 149,951 4,802 137,216 17,537 PADD 1 - East Coast 63,491 61,846 1,645 61,994 1,497 57,462 6,029 49,292 14,199 PADD 2 - Midwest 30,209 29,668 541 29,894 315 29,938 271 29,405 804 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 43,558 44,536 -978 44,028 -470 44,917 -1,359 42,330 1,228 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3,076 3,267 -191 3,313 -237 3,833 -757 3,526 -450 PADD 5 - West Coast 14,419 13,940 479 13,857 562 13,801 618 12,663 1,756DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 41.1

For a 3rd consecutive week, Distillates stocks built by 1 496 kb to 154 753 kb, which is 17 537 kb/d over the 5y Average (137 216 kb), 25 638 kb/d above the 4w average (129 115 kb), and 4 802 kb/d superior to the last year (149 951 kb).

The rise was run by PADD 1 with a gain of 1 645 kb.

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by 541 kb, - 978 kb, - 191 kb, 479 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Distillates rose by 48 kb/d to 3 838 kb/d. 4w Average reached 3 763 kb (+ 75 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 41.1 days of supply.

Distillates production gained 124 kb/d to 4 974 kb/d. That is 231 kb/d superior to the 5y Average (4 743 kb), 99 kb/d over the 4w average (4 876 kb), and 51 kb/d above the last year (4 923 kb).

Distillates imports contracted by 97 kb/d to 127 kb/d. I t's 13 kb/d beneath the 5y Average ( 140 kb), 30 kb/d under the 4w average ( 157 kb), and 50 kb/d over the last year ( 77 kb).

KEROSENE

WEEK 352016

Storage (kb)

Range 2011 - 2015

2014 2015

2016 5Y AVG

Production (kb) Imports (kb)

Days of Supply

10

32,00033,35034,70036,05037,40038,75040,10041,45042,80044,15045,50046,85048,200

20.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.00

1,1851,2351,2851,3351,3851,4351,4851,5351,5851,6351,6851,7351,785

03570

105140175210245280315350385420

Price

KEROSENEEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

11

IMPLIED DEMAND & VOLUME SUPPLIED (kbl /day) Volume Supplied 1,846 1,659 187 1,766 80 1,488 358 1,485 361REFINERY OUTPUT (kbl / day) Total 1,751 1,786 -35 1,807 -56 1,565 186 1,589 162 PADD 1 - East Coast 75 91 -16 84 -9 94 -19 83 -8 PADD 2 - Midw est 279 282 -3 281 -2 238 41 252 27 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 862 869 -7 893 -31 755 107 771 91 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 37 44 -7 40 -3 40 -3 31 6 PADD 5 - West Coast 498 500 -2 509 -11 438 60 453 45IMPORTS (kbl / day) Total 218 44 174 131 88 179 39 94 124 PADD 1 - East Coast 43 10 33 36 7 32 11 39 4 PADD 2 - Midw est 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PADD 5 - West Coast 175 34 141 95 80 147 28 54 121STORAGE (kbl) Total 41,033 41,751 -718 41,511 -478 42,546 -1,513 40,722 311 PADD 1 - East Coast 9,305 9,997 -692 9,440 -135 9,828 -523 10,275 -970 PADD 2 - Midw est 6,724 6,866 -142 6,596 129 6,932 -208 7,086 -362 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 14,818 14,510 308 15,359 -541 16,253 -1,435 13,836 982 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 778 798 -20 734 45 548 230 602 176 PADD 5 - West Coast 9,408 9,580 -172 9,384 25 8,985 423 8,922 486DAYS OF SUPPLY: STORAGE vs VOLUME SUPPLIED (4w AVERAGE) Total 23.2

The upward trend begun 3 weeks ago was interrupted, and Kerosene stocks contracted by 718 kb to 41 033 kb, which is 311 kb/d over the 5y Average (40 722 kb), 478 kb/d under the 4w average (41 511 kb), and 1 513 kb/d under the last year (42 546 kb).

The drawdown was driven by PADD 1 with a delcline of 692 kb, and higher implied demand ( 187 kb/d).

PADD 2, PADD 3, PADD 4, PADD 5 storage levels moved respectively by- 142 kb, 308 kb, - 20 kb, - 172 kb

Weekly volume supplied of Kerozene rose by 187 kb/d to 1 846 kb/d. 4w Average reached 1 766 kb (+ 80 kb/d), and linked to stocks level achieved 23.2 days of supply.

Kerosene production down by 35 kb/d to 1 751 kb/d. That is 162 kb/d over the 5y Average (1 589 kb), 56 kb/d beneath the 4w average (1 807 kb), and 186 kb/d superior to the last year (1 565 kb).

Kerosene imports gained 174 kb/d to 218 kb/d. I t's 124 kb/d over the 5y Average ( 94 kb), 88 kb/d over the 4w average ( 131 kb), and 39 kb/d superior to the last year ( 179 kb).

REFINERY RUNEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

12

Current Past Week Variation 4 Weeks Avrg Variation Past Year Variation8/26/2016 8/19/2016 vs current vs current 8/28/2015 vs current

OPERABLE CAPACITY (kbl / day) Total USA 18,321 18,321 0 18,321 0 17,962 359 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,278 1,278 0 1,278 0 1,269 9 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,924 3,924 0 3,924 0 3,842 82 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 9,515 9,515 0 9,515 0 9,271 244 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 680 680 0 680 0 647 33 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,924 2,924 0 2,924 0 2,933 -9GROSS INPUT (kbl / day) Total USA 17,009 16,937 72 16,989 20 16,673 336 PADD 1 - East Coast 1,108 1,090 18 1,076 32 1,220 -112 PADD 2 - Midwest 3,806 3,752 54 3,740 67 3,551 255 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 8,817 8,783 34 8,898 -81 8,584 233 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 584 589 -5 585 -1 624 -40 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,694 2,723 -29 2,691 3 2,694 0% UTILISATION Total USA 92.84% 92.45% 0.39 92.73% 0.11 92.82% 0.02 PADD 1 - East Coast 86.70% 85.29% 1.41 84.21% 2.48 96.14% -9.44 PADD 2 - Midwest 96.99% 95.62% 1.38 95.30% 1.69 92.43% 4.57 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 92.66% 92.31% 0.36 93.51% -0.85 92.59% 0.07 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 85.88% 86.62% -0.74 85.99% -0.11 96.45% -10.56 PADD 5 - West Coast 92.13% 93.13% -0.99 92.03% 0.10 91.85% 0.28OUTPUT (kbl / day) : Motor Gas / Distillate / Kerozene / Residual Total USA 17,278 17,099 179 17,315 -37 17,044 234 PADD 1 - East Coast 3,768 3,773 -5 3,784 -16 3,768 0 PADD 2 - Midwest 4,055 4,072 -17 4,056 -1 3,986 69 PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 5,948 5,771 177 5,998 -50 5,819 129 PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 571 575 -4 570 2 573 -2 PADD 5 - West Coast 2,936 2,908 28 2,907 29 2,898 38