Using census data for policymaking, monitoring and evaluation

Dr. Gamini de SilvaLecturer/Statistician

UNSIAP, Chiba, TOKYO

Country Course on Analysis and Dissemination of Population and Housing Census Data with Gender

Concern24-28 October 2011, Jakarta, Indonesia

04/18/23 2

Censuses

• Census—The total process of collecting, compiling, analyzing, and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic, and social data pertaining to all persons in a country or in a well-delineated part of a country at a specified time

“A census is not complete until the information collected is made available to potential users in a form suited to their needs”

(UN Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Revision 2, para. 1.206)

Data Uses/Needs for policymaking, planning and administrative purposes as (an essential) part of the statistical infrastructure for research purposes for business, industry and labor for electoral boundary delimitation as a sampling frame for surveys for development of benchmark housing statistics for the formulation of housing policy and programs for the assessment of the quality of housing in relationship with other statistical activities

Increasing demand for disaggregated statistical data

(a) Emergency planning and humanitarian response. (Japan tsunami experience)

(b) Flood plain modeling. (c) Planning of social and educational services. (d) Poverty analysis. (e) Utility service planning. (f) Labour force analysis. (g) Marketing analysis. (h) Voting district delineation. (i) Epidemiological analysis. (j) Agriculture.

-what are your experiences?

What will happen during the 21st century?Will economic and social development progress more rapidly than population growth?Will the country find that it can support much larger numbers (better, same or worse) than it does at present?

What is known for certain is that an elementary knowledge of population will continue to be key to understanding human behavior and anticipating changes.

Population and Policy

The broader policies to be pursued include

responsible economic developmentthe education and empowerment of womenhigh-quality health care, including family planning services.Increases access to opportunities (worldwide) maintain (a reasonable level of) equity

Individual health and well-being and meeting family needs are recognized as crucial to meeting development goals.

Population and Policy

Have we understood the consequences of population growth in comparison with the resources and consequences that we would face in the future?

Will everything grow in line with the growth in the population? How serious this would be? Does it require rigorous analysis? Or simple analysis?

Population and Policy

Review: What is the time for Doubling population in your country?

(spare 10min?)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=related

Policy Making – What is it?

It is the process by which governments translate their political vision into programs and actions to deliver desired changes in the real world.

Government’s role in the policy process

• A key role of Government is to develop, implement and review policy to achieve its outcomes

• Government policy determines the future directions and development of a country and the wellbeing of its citizens

How far can policies be integrated into Life of people? Japan: A very disabled-friendly nation!

• INSIDE CEBU By BOBIT S. AVILA (The Philippine Star) Updated November 28, 2008 12:00 AM

• Japan, being courteous, people on wheelchairs get special attention all the time! Ramps are everywhere for the disabled and toddlers in strollers to use.

• They have special elevators for disabled people and yes, even in Narita

• On the train station, officials are always ready to help push your wheelchair toward the elevator that brings you to the platform.

• Disabled people get hefty discounts, not only on the train, but also on taxis as well.

• You can say that it’s great to be disabled in Japan and with their median population at around 60 years old, seeing people using wheelchairs has become commonplace.

• http://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?p=disabled+and+japanese+trains&n=21&ei=utf-8&tnr=20&js=1

Public Service’s role in the policy process

The role of the Public Service is to:• advise the Government, • manage programs on behalf of the

Government, so as to• achieve Government outcomes.• Where do you stand?• What is your role?

Phases of the policy cycle

Phase 1: Issue identification

• Understand the issue, problem or concern commanding attention– does the issue require a policy response?– is it on the policy agenda?– should it be on the policy agenda?

• Issue is not always clear – clarify problem before analysis phase

Phase 1: Issue identification - Example

Phase 2: Policy analysis• Policy analysis:

– designing, determining and considering choices and alternatives– identifying consequences, implications or impacts of policy

actions.• Policy developers must:

– research the issue (evidence) (Data/information?)– develop feasible options and solutions (evidence and

philosophy) including practical, achievable implementation strategies

– consider and assess the advantages and disadvantages of options

– provide sound, thorough advice and recommendation for informed decision making. (proper information needed)

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vHVhn_uwTo&feature=related (transition population)

Phase 5: Evaluation

• Why evaluate?– are the aims and objectives of the program still

relevant?– is the program the most efficient and effective

way of achieving the desired outcome?– are changes needed to the way in which the

program runs?– how did the program perform overall? (finished or

lapsed programs)

“Wicked Problems”

• Horst- Rittel: – "One cannot build a freeway to see how it works."

This is the issue with wicked problems: you can't learn about the problem without trying solutions, but every solution you try is expensive and has lasting unintended consequences which are likely to create new wicked problems.

– Solutions to wicked problems are not right or wrong, simply "better," "worse," "good enough," or "not good enough”.

Example of Policy Challenges due to “Wicked Problems”

• Review of early intervention programs for children in disadvantaged families in Australia found they were effective on average

• They were ineffective or damaging for some participants

• Negative outcomes occurred for those with multiple and complex needs

• Program made things worse for the most disadvantaged

Role of Indicators in the Policy Process

• Early warning (informing a policy need)• Performance monitoring and communicating progress• Evaluating an outcome

Role of Indicators in the Policy Process

Challenges:•Dependence on official data• Often under-developed and under-resourced

•Can have unintended consequences•Can divert attention away from ‘key’ issues• “One size does not fit all needs”

•Need to be undertaken with integrity

Identifying analytical directions..clustering of issues

Can the data help?

Do the right mix (of variables)

Go beyond simple tables and graphs –highlight the focus theme

How to influence informed decision making?

• Identify the users• Know there needs• Provide data with objectivity • Improve decision making ability by generating

suitable/acceptable indicators• Carry out analysis targeting the data users (first- where

census is the only choice) • Help interpret the results properly• Do not over perform (due to data limitations, conflict of

interests,..may not become a policy makers yourself!)

• Instead of asking users to utilize what is available, provide data that is needed by users ( a process.. of course!)

Thank you

• Any questions?• Share your – Knowledge– Experience– Problems– Solutions– Views– Evaluations

• All these are important for building capabilities in our region.